SEC Week 10

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
 
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Sorry for format above, on my phone and a little out of pocket until tonight. Will fix it then. I’m sure there’s plenty to talk about so wanted to get this going. My PR lines:

UK -17
aTm -2
UGA -12
Alabama -12.5
Miss St -17.5
SC -14
 
Schlabach:

Georgia outside linebacker Nolan Smith, the No. 1-ranked Bulldogs' leading pass-rusher this season, is doubtful to play in Saturday's showdown against No. 2 Tennessee because of a shoulder injury, coach Kirby Smart told reporters Monday.
 
I know a few boosters for aub, and they seem to think it’s either Hugh Freeze or Jeff Grimes. I don’t think Lane would go there, he’s in a great situation in Oxford, plus there is a significant number of people who want Kiffin to follow Saban, and I think lane wants that possibility on the table when it’s time
 
Frank Costanza said:
Schlabach:

Georgia outside linebacker Nolan Smith, the No. 1-ranked Bulldogs' leading pass-rusher this season, is doubtful to play in Saturday's showdown against No. 2 Tennessee because of a shoulder injury, coach Kirby Smart told reporters Monday.
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Has anyone else confirmed this information? Or is the coach just creating intrigue? I think Nolan's absence could affect the outcome of the game.

Hi all.
 
I've thought a lot about the Tenn/UGA game over the last couple of weeks, mainly because I'm hopeful that Alabama gets a crack at one of them in Atlanta in December. Tennessee is exactly the kind of team that can give UGA all kinds of problems, because as good as the UGA defense is, Tenn will be able to score on them more than they are accustomed to. The key for UGA is going to be able to keep up with them. I do not think UGA can come back from a multi-score deficit, so I think it's important that they not fall behind. I have my doubts about UGA, because we've seen them struggle against elite offenses over the past few seasons (2019 LSU, 2020/21 Alabama), but this is why Kirby brought in Monken, so that they can keep up in games like this. Tennessee has a pretty decent run defense, so I don't think UGA will just be able to lean on the run game, run clock, and keep Tenn from scoring. They are going to have to be balanced and are going to have to score. I figure Tenn is good for 30 points at least, so UGA needs to have the mindset that they need to get to 40 points minimum

If this game was in Knoxville, or even a neutral field, I'd probably pick Tennessee to win. They've been very impressive so far, and this is the last test: beating an elite team on the road. Even if they don't, they are one of the 3-4 best teams in the country. I was all set to pick them to win over the last few weeks, but the more I thought about their win over Alabama, I don't think UGA is going to make the self-inflicted mistakes Bama did, plus UGA has the benefit of seeing a similar defense play Tenn and will have a pretty good idea on how the Vols will attack. I don't think they will underestimate Tenn's OL like Alabama did (or overestimate their ability to get pressure with 3) and they'll put more pressure on Hooker. I'll most likely only bet on some overs here, but I lean Tenn + the points. I think UGA wins a close one, something like 38-35.
 
Nothing about the way Georgia has looked this year since the Oregon game has made me think they blow Tennessee out. Talked myself out of big Tennessee bet since they were the popular underdog....not going to let it sway me this week. Also think LSU can keep it close.
 
aplous said:
Nothing about the way Georgia has looked this year since the Oregon game has made me think they blow Tennessee out. Talked myself out of big Tennessee bet since they were the popular underdog....not going to let it sway me this week. Also think LSU can keep it close.
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I don't see how anyone could bet with any confidence on Alabama to cover 2 TDs on the road
 
The Alabama/LSU game comes down to how well Jayden Daniels plays. If he plays like he has the last couple games, LSU will be in it until the end. If he's just ok, I think Alabama wins fairly easily. How Alabama handles the environment is a big factor too. A bunch of dumb penalties like in Austin or Knoxville will keep LSU in it no matter how well Daniels is playing. Interested to see how a rested and hopefully fully healed Bryce looks. Tenn and Miss St dropped 8 with little fear that Bryce was going to take off and run, and they were right. And against MSU, Alabama couldn't make them pay by running the ball. Sounding like we may be as healthy as we have all year for this game, so maybe we'll start to play to our potential, but I'm in prove it to me mode on the road. Lean taking the points, might look at the under as well
 
The fans are foaming at the mouth for the first meaningful night game in Tiger Stadium since the magic of 2019. The first quarter will signal alot about how this game will go in my opinion. Overcome a horrendous start and cut down or eliminate special teams buffonery and we MAY keep it real close. Very low confidence personally which usually means good things for my Tigers.
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
The fans are foaming at the mouth for the first meaningful night game in Tiger Stadium since the magic of 2019. The first quarter will signal alot about how this game will go in my opinion. Overcome a horrendous start and cut down or eliminate special teams buffonery and we MAY keep it real close. Very low confidence personally which usually means good things for my Tigers.
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I'd really appreciate it if y'all could fumble a kickoff or two in the 1st quarter. We'll probably respond by a few blocking in the back penalties on returns then 3-4 false starts
 
My last Bama game in person was the Yeldon screen pass drive game(2012?). Kick it dont kick it from Miles. We did our best to give that one away. We have less horses in the barn but more brains on the sideline now. One can at least dream. Cant wait.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Who knows what motivates that clown. Do we know if he even liked the departing AD?
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Frank....I'm headed back to Manhattan, KS this weekend for another UT/KSU showdown. Early thoughts? Horns off a bye which is nice. Last week was a great buy low for KSU, pretty nervous this week. Going to need Will Howard to show out again and I don't know if he's got another performance like that in him. MLB Daniel Green missed last week, need him bad against Bijon.
 
aplous said:
Frank....I'm headed back to Manhattan, KS this weekend for another UT/KSU showdown. Early thoughts? Horns off a bye which is nice. Last week was a great buy low for KSU, pretty nervous this week. Going to need Will Howard to show out again and I don't know if he's got another performance like that in him. MLB Daniel Green missed last week, need him bad against Bijon.
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I'm jealous, good for you. Night game, high 40s. Football weather. Should be a great atmosphere.

I want to be a fan of Sarkisian but his terrible handling of the QB situation in Stillwater a couple of weeks is yet another flag being raised. Execution issues. Discipline issues. Penalties. Losing so many double digit leads tells everyone adjustments aren't being made and his team doesn't have the mentality / killer instinct to finish games. Compare and contrast with someone like Klieman who I have so much admiration for.

With all this said everything tells me that KSU will win this game. But, even with my well-documented cynicism when in comes to our program, something is telling me that we will win the game and probably cover the 2-1/2. I hate gut feels but right now that's where I'm at. And I've just wasted a minute plus of your life with no concrete evidence to support my stance...:D
 
gps_3 said:
I've thought a lot about the Tenn/UGA game over the last couple of weeks, mainly because I'm hopeful that Alabama gets a crack at one of them in Atlanta in December. Tennessee is exactly the kind of team that can give UGA all kinds of problems, because as good as the UGA defense is, Tenn will be able to score on them more than they are accustomed to. The key for UGA is going to be able to keep up with them. I do not think UGA can come back from a multi-score deficit, so I think it's important that they not fall behind. I have my doubts about UGA, because we've seen them struggle against elite offenses over the past few seasons (2019 LSU, 2020/21 Alabama), but this is why Kirby brought in Monken, so that they can keep up in games like this. Tennessee has a pretty decent run defense, so I don't think UGA will just be able to lean on the run game, run clock, and keep Tenn from scoring. They are going to have to be balanced and are going to have to score. I figure Tenn is good for 30 points at least, so UGA needs to have the mindset that they need to get to 40 points minimum

If this game was in Knoxville, or even a neutral field, I'd probably pick Tennessee to win. They've been very impressive so far, and this is the last test: beating an elite team on the road. Even if they don't, they are one of the 3-4 best teams in the country. I was all set to pick them to win over the last few weeks, but the more I thought about their win over Alabama, I don't think UGA is going to make the self-inflicted mistakes Bama did, plus UGA has the benefit of seeing a similar defense play Tenn and will have a pretty good idea on how the Vols will attack. I don't think they will underestimate Tenn's OL like Alabama did (or overestimate their ability to get pressure with 3) and they'll put more pressure on Hooker. I'll most likely only bet on some overs here, but I lean Tenn + the points. I think UGA wins a close one, something like 38-35.
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Great insight! Being a UT fan Im hoping Ga turnovers will be a difference.
 
GAYTORSSUCK said:
Great insight! Being a UT fan Im hoping Ga turnovers will be a difference.
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I'm actually pretty close to changing my mind and picking Tenn to win SU. I just keep comparing it to the Alabama game, and despite all that went wrong for Bama, and the crowd, they only lost by 3 on a last second FG, and had a very good chance of winning that game. While I'm not sure the crowd will affect Tenn as much as the crowds have affected Bama due to the offensive style, they also won't be able to channel the energy in quite the same way they would at home. I feel very confident saying that UGA will play more disciplined than Alabama did and will be more balanced on offense. Still planning on taking the overs and the points, we'll see how I feel over the next 48 hours and I may just sprinkle some on the ML. Then prepare to bet the house on Alabama in ATL :cool:
 
Tenn @ UGA may have the highest variance of potential outcomes of a big game that I can remember. I won't be shocked at any outcome: Tenn wins big/close or UGA wins big/close. Most excited I've been about a non-Bama game in a long long time
 
gps_3 said:
Tenn @ UGA may have the highest variance of potential outcomes of a big game that I can remember. I won't be shocked at any outcome: Tenn wins big/close or UGA wins big/close. Most excited I've been about a non-Bama game in a long long time
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Our good pal KF had a good writeup and picked Vols to win 38-35.
 
gps_3 said:
I'm actually pretty close to changing my mind and picking Tenn to win SU. I just keep comparing it to the Alabama game, and despite all that went wrong for Bama, and the crowd, they only lost by 3 on a last second FG, and had a very good chance of winning that game. While I'm not sure the crowd will affect Tenn as much as the crowds have affected Bama due to the offensive style, they also won't be able to channel the energy in quite the same way they would at home. I feel very confident saying that UGA will play more disciplined than Alabama did and will be more balanced on offense. Still planning on taking the overs and the points, we'll see how I feel over the next 48 hours and I may just sprinkle some on the ML. Then prepare to bet the house on Alabama in ATL :cool:
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Thats the kind of rat poison we hope your players are huffing. Presumed Atlanta presence before the horrors of a long night of hell in Tiger Stadium have shook y’all to your core. Just kidding of course.
 
I'm still not sure why Tennessee has gotten all the hype. I could be wrong, but they beat an awful Florida team by 5 at home and Pitt in OT. There is a different level coming to Athens and beating the reigning defending undefeated champs. UGA has a few injuries (Nolan Smith - Out, AD Mitchell likely Out), but this team and coaching staff has a lot more big game experience. I can see UGA averaging 7 to 8 ypc and then having Brock and Darnell combine for about 185 and 2 tds. The secondary is a bit of a concern. Ringo has struggled in coverage. With that being said, UGA 38 - Tennessee 27 and their fan base goes back into the backwoods where they have been hiding for the past decade.
 
GoDawgs1980 said:
I'm still not sure why Tennessee has gotten all the hype. I could be wrong, but they beat an awful Florida team by 5 at home and Pitt in OT. There is a different level coming to Athens and beating the reigning defending undefeated champs. UGA has a few injuries (Nolan Smith - Out, AD Mitchell likely Out), but this team and coaching staff has a lot more big game experience. I can see UGA averaging 7 to 8 ypc and then having Brock and Darnell combine for about 185 and 2 tds. The secondary is a bit of a concern. Ringo has struggled in coverage. With that being said, UGA 38 - Tennessee 27 and their fan base goes back into the backwoods where they have been hiding for the past decade.
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Maybe you're right, but I don't see UGA getting 7-8 ypc. Tennessee has the 2nd best run defense In the conference behind Alabama, they defend the run well. UGA doesn't get after the QB very well either, and giving Hooker time with the splits those WR play, nobody can cover them if he has all day. I think the home field is definitely worth something. I go back and forth like I said. On the one hand, Tennessee played an almost perfect game against Alabama and still almost lost. On the other, UGA has shown over the years that they simply can't keep up with elite offenses. I almost don't even want to bet the game, but then what kind of degenerate would I be? Wouldn't even be able to look at myself in the mirror
 
gps_3 said:
Maybe you're right, but I don't see UGA getting 7-8 ypc. Tennessee has the 2nd best run defense In the conference behind Alabama, they defend the run well. UGA doesn't get after the QB very well either, and giving Hooker time with the splits those WR play, nobody can cover them if he has all day. I think the home field is definitely worth something. I go back and forth like I said. On the one hand, Tennessee played an almost perfect game against Alabama and still almost lost. On the other, UGA has shown over the years that they simply can't keep up with elite offenses. I almost don't even want to bet the game, but then what kind of degenerate would I be? Wouldn't even be able to look at myself in the mirror
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And let's not forget the struggles the Dawgs had with Kent St and the Mizzou Tigers.
 
@gps_3 scale of 1-10 what level nerves for Sat night?

Unlike the Tenny game, you think Bama takes care of business. LSU definitely can’t have the mistakes against Bama, can’t overcome that I feel.

I wonder how y’all spy Daniels?
 
twinkie13 said:
@gps_3 scale of 1-10 what level nerves for Sat night?

Unlike the Tenny game, you think Bama takes care of business. LSU definitely can’t have the mistakes against Bama, can’t overcome that I feel.

I wonder how y’all spy Daniels?
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Right now I'd say about 4-5. Tomorrow around 530 they will be a 9

We are not a good matchup for LSU on paper. Some of our strengths (QB play, pressuring the QB) line up with the weaker parts of LSU. But our biggest weakness this year has been self-inflicted mistakes on the road. And I don't expect it to be quiet tomorrow night. If we can cut the penalties in half from the Texas and Tenn game, and not have any silly turnovers, I think we'll be fine.

As far as spying Daniels, I'd assume that it would be Deontae Lawson, similar to the Tennessee game. However, against Miss St (which I know is a totally different QB and system), Dallas Turner was playing off ball LB instead of OLB, mainly out of necessity die to a few injuries, but it was still an interesting decision and one I can't help but think may be something we look to employ against the mobile QBs we play, and certainly against Tenn if we play them again. Dallas is athletic enough to do it, and it keeps a full allotment of pass rushers on the field. I think the biggest failure our defense had against Tenn was not pressuring Hooker enough. On the times we did, he was off target. For anyone who has a sub to The Athletic, there's a great article explaining the Tenn version of the Baylor offense. Basically the only way to defend it is to either get pressure on the QB since he only has one or two reads, or have DBs that can run step for step with a bunch of really fast WR. Nobody in the country has enough DBs like that, so it seems pressure is the best way. That's why I miss Pruitt as our DC. Halfway through that game he would have thrown away the script and just blitzed the sh!t out of them
 
GAYTORSSUCK said:
And let's not forget the struggles the Dawgs had with Kent St and the Mizzou Tigers.
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They beat Kent St by 17. Had 29 first downs to 14. 529 yards to 281. The two turnovers kept it close.

Vs. Mizzou - UGA had 28 to 14 first downs, 481 yards to 294. The two turnovers once again..

They dominated both games. Easy to look at the final score and make a silly post.
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Pitt had more first downs and basically the same yards. Florida had more yards and more touchdowns and outplayed Tenn.

We will see Saturday night. Very doubtful that a team who had 6 losses last year all of a sudden becomes the greatest team in SEC history...
 
GoDawgs1980 said:
They beat Kent St by 17. Had 29 first downs to 14. 529 yards to 281. The two turnovers kept it close.

Vs. Mizzou - UGA had 28 to 14 first downs, 481 yards to 294. The two turnovers once again..

They dominated both games. Easy to look at the final score and make a silly post.
---

Pitt had more first downs and basically the same yards. Florida had more yards and more touchdowns and outplayed Tenn.

We will see Saturday night. Very doubtful that a team who had 6 losses last year all of a sudden becomes the greatest team in SEC history...
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They don't have to be the best team in SEC history to beat a very good but not special UGA team this year though
 
I LOVE THIS SHIT! We can all be unbiased and rational until the last 48-72 hours or so before the big games. Nothing is quite like SEC football. Obviously, thats just my opinion. The fact we can even pretend LSU has a chance tomorrow night exceeds my expectations for this year. Cant wait for tomorrow!
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
I LOVE THIS SHIT! We can all be unbiased and rational until the last 48-72 hours or so before the big games. Nothing is quite like SEC football. Obviously, thats just my opinion. The fact we can even pretend LSU has a chance tomorrow night exceeds my expectations for this year. Cant wait for tomorrow!
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We will know what we got tomorrow and how big the improvement is/was.
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
I LOVE THIS SHIT! We can all be unbiased and rational until the last 48-72 hours or so before the big games. Nothing is quite like SEC football. Obviously, thats just my opinion. The fact we can even pretend LSU has a chance tomorrow night exceeds my expectations for this year. Cant wait for tomorrow!
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Fun fact: Alabama has more wins in Baton Rouge (29) than LSU has wins total against Alabama (26)
 
twinkie13 said:
We will know what we got tomorrow and how big the improvement is/was.
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It can be hard to wipe away the impressions we had of teams after the first couple of weeks of a season. Teams get better as the season goes along. Some get worse. I don't think anyone would think FSU would beat LSU today.
 
gps_3 said:
Fun fact: Alabama has more wins in Baton Rouge (29) than LSU has wins total against Alabama (26)
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Bama also brought with them 2 of the top 5 if not top 2 coaches of all time on many of those trips. We’ve been trotting out special Ed MVPs more often than not. Not saying Kelly is the solution but hes damn sure an improvement over every coach we’ve had minus Saban since 1990. I dont even expect to cover the spread. Its the possibility that has me fired up.
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
Bama also brought with them 2 of the top 5 if not top 2 coaches of all time on many of those trips. We’ve been trotting out special Ed MVPs more often than not. Not saying Kelly is the solution but hes damn sure an improvement over every coach we’ve had minus Saban since 1990. I dont even expect to cover the spread. Its the possibility that has me fired up.
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It's kind of a weird stat. There were times in the dark times of Alabama football where we'd out of nowhere win in BR. Think there was a streak where Alabama won 5 or 6 in a row in BR, but lost 3 or 4 in a row in Tuscaloosa.
 
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