SEC Week 10 Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making

Saturday, November 6​

MATCHUPTIME (CT)NAT TVTICKETSLOCATION

Missouri
#1Georgia		11:00 AMESPNTickets as low as $126Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA

Liberty
#15Ole Miss		11:00 AMSECNTickets as low as $22Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS

#12Auburn
#13Texas A&M		2:30 PMTickets as low as $120Kyle Field, College Station, TX

Mississippi State
Arkansas		3:00 PMSECNTickets as low as $30Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR

LSU
#3Alabama		6:00 PMESPNTickets as low as $81Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL

Tennessee
#18Kentucky		6:00 PMESPN2Tickets as low as $127Kroger Field, Lexington, KY

Florida
South Carolina		6:30 PMSECNTickets as low as $33Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC
 
My PR lines:

UGA -30.5
aTm -6.5
Arky -6
Alabama -28.5
Kentucky -8.5
Florida -13.5
 
Looks like I'm a good bit off on a few of those. I can't rank UGA any higher in my PR, guess I need to drop SC and Mizzou into Vandy territory
 
I had AU/Ole Miss on the second TV while watching World Series, any good recap of what happened? Looks kinda like Ole Miss moved the ball decently well but couldn't put points on the board? Guess Tank had a big night as one could have guessed he would. AU offense stat wise looks pretty balanced. I still don't know what to think of this team, but it's not that big of a stretch to think that the Alabama-AU game could decide the West, which will make every Alabama fan a nervous wreck

I watched the first half of the UGA-UF game before family Halloween stuff took me away. That game went about according to script for the way UGA's team is built. I can't imagine a worse sequence of events than what happened to Florida in the last 2 minutes. Maybe the beginning of the UGA-Arky game. I only see a couple of teams in the country with an offense capable of making that defense uncomfortable. If Kirby can't get it done this year, I don't know that he ever will unless he changes the makeup of the team, and by that I mean offense
 
gps_3 said:
I had AU/Ole Miss on the second TV while watching World Series, any good recap of what happened? Looks kinda like Ole Miss moved the ball decently well but couldn't put points on the board? Guess Tank had a big night as one could have guessed he would. AU offense stat wise looks pretty balanced. I still don't know what to think of this team, but it's not that big of a stretch to think that the Alabama-AU game could decide the West, which will make every Alabama fan a nervous wreck

I watched the first half of the UGA-UF game before family Halloween stuff took me away. That game went about according to script for the way UGA's team is built. I can't imagine a worse sequence of events than what happened to Florida in the last 2 minutes. Maybe the beginning of the UGA-Arky game. I only see a couple of teams in the country with an offense capable of making that defense uncomfortable. If Kirby can't get it done this year, I don't know that he ever will unless he changes the makeup of the team, and by that I mean offense
Click to expand...
Here's part of what happened in the AU/Ole Miss game:



It was Kiffin's worst game as the HC at Ole Miss. It didn't help that Corral hurt his other ankle and lost his only healthy starting WR.
 
M.W. said:
Some things that are illegal elsewhere are legal in the pocket or “blocking zone”. I believe a block in the back is one of them.
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A couple of the other calls —the holding call and the non-call on defensive holding — were egregious.
 
M.W. said:
A couple of the other calls —the holding call and the non-call on defensive holding — were egregious.
Click to expand...
There were at least two more calls that didn’t make the montage. I’m not saying that Ole Miss lost because of the refs. Kiffin tried to be the smartest guy in the stadium, and Auburn was the better team…but it’s difficult to beat the better team when the refs don’t give you a shot.
 
Got this from a Bama board: Teams to play 5 straight conference games without a bye are 2-4 in that 5th game. The two wins were UGA over UK and aTm over South carolina. Losers were Ole Miss (AU), Florida (LSU), LSU (Ole Miss) and Tennessee (Alabama). I'd have to look and see what the ATS records were, but off the top of my head, the team playing their 5th game in a row is 1- 5 ATS. Should have been 2-4, as UGA basically covered that game

There are 3 such games left: Miss St plays their 5th straight against AU, Mizzou plays their 5th straight against Arky, and AU plays their 5th straight against Alabama. May mean something, may mean nothing. Also may not be unique to SEC, but I haven't done the research.
 
gps_3 said:
Looks like I'm a good bit off on a few of those. I can't rank UGA any higher in my PR, guess I need to drop SC and Mizzou into Vandy territory
Click to expand...

Vandy did kinda give mizzou all they wanted! 3 point game going into the 4th qrtr!! Tigers couldnt stop a Jr college team from running on them! This is gonna be so so fugly!! Uga shouldn’t have to attempt a pass in this one if they don’t want to. Honestly think mizzou is the worst run defense I have seen in not only the power 5 but entire fcs! Numbers pretty much back it up, they are 126th or worse in every run d category (no clue who the few who worse may be?). It not just the surface stats either, they 120th or worse in basically every dline metric when it comes to defending the run!!

I remember thinking mizzou might be able to hang around w dawgs last year and Uga went bombs away all over them! Certainly don’t expect that this year just cause they shouldn’t need to. Think it be pretty funny to watch Uga score 50 points without attempting a pass! Somehow mizzou defense has gotten way worse in 2nd year of the drinkawitz era (prob spelled name wrong but he doesn’t deserve my time to look up the correct spelling!).

Can’t see mizzou scoring a point here. Once again give me the team total under, worked again last week when some tried to convince me Mullen would be able to draw some things up on these guys. Dawgs d is just too fuckinh good! They every bit as all time dominate as last few years lsu and bama offenses were! I’m actually shocked to see gators had 161 yards rushing and almost 200 passing, talk about empty calories!
 
Are we at least gonna see a 10/10.5 on mizzou team total? One the few I past on was uk cause luckily books made their number 9.5 and I couldn’t do that (They saved me there as uk scored 13). Kinda same here I would like to get a 10.5 as I think 10 is bout best case for mizzou. Maybe it be better to just lay the number? Lol
 
i usually get burnt when i try to play a sec under so maybe i should just run away, that said i think there a pretty good case for messy st/ark to go under 56.

i think the defense ark prefers to employ is perfect to slow Leach offense down. arky d was really built to handle this kind of attack. I wish arky defense was better in the red zone as i think messy scores will be drives that have a bunch of plays (that might even be a tad time consuming) as ark keeps everything in front of them. They are however very good on 3rd downs so they should be able to get off the field. i been saying for some time i think messy st d is actually a strength which unusual for a leach team but i guess ya cant help but land a solid defense in that part the country! they been really good against the run, totally shut down uk run game. Only concern is there no real examples of them vs a running qb so i dont know how they will handle Jeffereson? their defensive line metrics against the run are mostly really good so i like their chances of being able to limit him.. When they met up last season this kinda played out in a 21-14 arky win.

Maybe 1st half under be better as i have hit a few of those before the sec game turns into a track meet in the 2nd half!! lol..
 
This a good game to judge Bama D. They should be able to shut LSUdown pretty hard…most think they are the weakness, yes?
 
twinkie13 said:
This a good game to judge Bama D. They should be able to shut LSUdown pretty hard…most think they are the weakness, yes?
Click to expand...
Let's just say that UGA did not allow the Gators to score 29 points. And ultimately the comparisons that matter this year are the comparisons to Georgia.
 
M.W. said:
Let's just say that UGA did not allow the Gators to score 29 points. And ultimately the comparisons that matter this year are the comparisons to Georgia.
Click to expand...
Nobody has a defense as good as UGA this year. So it's a weakness for everyone relative to the Dawgs.
 
M.W. said:
They're subscriber-only. Do you recommend Alabama team over, or the side, or what?
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Of the available DBs, Dwight MCGlothern has shown he can play a bit. Jay Ward in flashes…the rest are guys that can’t sniff the field on the norm. Jay Ward was only starter. Some have been here like 6 years….

The other article describes the practice. He was the only media guy there….coaches “coaching”….none of this staff will be here. Maybe, maybe Corey Raymond. It almost sounds like voluntary practice…
 
M.W. said:
They're subscriber-only. Do you recommend Alabama team over, or the side, or what?
Click to expand...
1st half I think is good and full game and TT.

Bama guys? Look it’s a huge number. I get it. At full strength this was gonna be a real tough one…
 
twinkie13 said:
Of the available DBs, Dwight MCGlothern has shown he can play a bit. Jay Ward in flashes…the rest are guys that can’t sniff the field on the norm. Jay Ward was only starter. Some have been here like 6 years….

The other article describes the practice. He was the only media guy there….coaches “coaching”….none of this staff will be here. Maybe, maybe Corey Raymond. It almost sounds like voluntary practice…
Click to expand...
McGlothern, Ward, and who are the other starters?
 
twinkie13 said:
1st half I think is good and full game and TT.

Bama guys? Look it’s a huge number. I get it. At full strength this was gonna be a real tough one…
Click to expand...
If Stingley isn't playing, how will one of our guys for 150+ and a couple of scores?
 
twinkie13 said:
1st half I think is good and full game and TT.

Bama guys? Look it’s a huge number. I get it. At full strength this was gonna be a real tough one…
Click to expand...
I mean honestly, and I hate even saying it, this may be a name your score game for Alabama. I don't even know how you begin to cap LSU's team right now with the injuries, the coaching, etc. I know the guys who suit up will play with a lot of pride, but I can't think their preparation was anything close to approaching normal or sufficient for the rest of the season.
 
M.W. said:
McGlothern, Ward, and who are the other starters?
Click to expand...
I’ll give you availability:

CB: Mglothern will start. If it’s me I go Raydarious other side. Neither we’re starting and Ray hasn’t seen field all that much in his time here. Evans is a Nicholls St transfer. He can’t play in the SEC, I’ve seen it.
Lloyd Cole and Pig Cage Walk Ons, and I ain’t talking about the bar.

S: Jay Ward who started. The other names are all awful. Cam Lewis(like 8th year senior). Todd Harris(awful) and list gets worse from there.
 
gps_3 said:
I mean honestly, and I hate even saying it, this may be a name your score game for Alabama. I don't even know how you begin to cap LSU's team right now with the injuries, the coaching, etc. I know the guys who suit up will play with a lot of pride, but I can't think their preparation was anything close to approaching normal or sufficient for the rest of the season.
Click to expand...
It’s gonna be ugly.
 
Think of this. In all the years Ed has been there, this is the biggest coaching mismatch there has been on CO side…both.

AND they can barely field a team.
 
2daBank said:
Are we at least gonna see a 10/10.5 on mizzou team total? One the few I past on was uk cause luckily books made their number 9.5 and I couldn’t do that (They saved me there as uk scored 13). Kinda same here I would like to get a 10.5 as I think 10 is bout best case for mizzou. Maybe it be better to just lay the number? Lol
Click to expand...
I think uga jumps out to a big lead, and gets some reps for younger guys in the 2H in this one. I don’t think they get into the 40’s by much, if they do at all. Just no benefit of going all out here, as kirby already knows their season will come down to beating bama. Would say maybe 1H play, but off Huge rivalry game last week and another “rivalry” next week at rocky top, just can’t do it. Think i’m gonna have a substantial play on game under 59.5. I see like 38-7 type of snoozer game.
 
mcculran said:
I think uga jumps out to a big lead, and gets some reps for younger guys in the 2H in this one. I don’t think they get into the 40’s by much, if they do at all. Just no benefit of going all out here, as kirby already knows their season will come down to beating bama. Would say maybe 1H play, but off Huge rivalry game last week and another “rivalry” next week at rocky top, just can’t do it. Think i’m gonna have a substantial play on game under 59.5. I see like 38-7 type of snoozer game.
Click to expand...

i agree but have you seen mizzou play run d? dawgs could have 3 backs go over 100, maybe freaking 4, on accident!! i agree with under tho, i dont think mizzou will score outside maybe garbage time late and yea i certainly dont expect uga to score more than 40ish..the only thing i was really looking at was mizzou team total under as i play that a lot on uga opponents, it less than 10 tho and that worries me a bit, the only one i recall passing on was uk when they put them at 9.5 as well. there no way id lay 38, ever probably, maybe ive done it against ku once or twice over the years, lol.. was just thinking out loud as i dont love idea of team total less than 10 with a offense that prob be capable of scoring once the game out of reach. thought bout 1st half but that freaking hook on 24 scares me too, could easily see 24-0, mizzou might even get a fg which why i dont love the 9.5 team total.

Hunt's mizzou 1st half under 3.5 might be the best of the bunch as i dont think a mizzou td comes till late, if ever. think i feel most confident in that 1st half tt under.. i see a prop for "does either team score 40+" and it freaking -400 so looks like they expect uga backups to continue putting up points which i wouldnt doubt, there no way tigers can stop dogs 3-4-5th string rb!! +270 a pretty fat price for uga to not score 40 considering they have only hit 40 in 2 of 6 sec games and that was against vandy and scary, they havnt hit 40 in a month but mizzou defense is every bit as bad as vandy's! dawgs threw for almost 300 in both those games, i cant imagine they throw more than 10 passes in this one. far as i can tell vandy was the only sec team they covered 24.5 in the 1st half. i think mizzou just as bad if not worse on the defensive side but tigers offense is much better which might pick up a few 1st downs to keep clock running, that said tigers qb has thrown quite a few picks which i think would be the recipe for uga to cover the 1st half number. You might be on to something just playing the under 58.5, dawgs can score 45 and i still get a way better number with mizzou team total, 13.5 would be a huge bet for me! uga basically has to score 50 to make the team total better than full game under.
 
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