SEC Week 10 Discussion

gps_3 said:
I think LSU having 2 losses and being an afterthought nationally since week 1 loss to Wisconsin has lessened some of the spark that it usually has. Seems like both teams have been at least top 10 for the last 5-7 years. Even though O is 4 games in, still hard to say for sure what kind of team they are. Obviously the team is playing with more confidence and there's much more enthusiasm. But as has been the case the past several years, you can't out-Bama Alabama. Etling will have to make plays with his arm for LSU to have a chance, and I'm not sure he can do it, especially because our DL should be all over him all game. I think Fournette will have a better day than last year, but he's not going to see holes like he did against Ole Miss. I can see Hurts struggling to pass it, but with his ability in the zone-read, I don't think the offense will stagnate like it did until late in 2014 against LSU. I think it will be relatively low scoring, probably a little boring to most of the public, but Alabama pulls away and wins something like 24-14. But a multi-turn over, missed FG loss for Alabama wouldn't shock me
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That and we don't have the Ol Grass Eater out there this year, sadly
 
CrimsonK said:
Agree - does sort of have a weird feeling to it. Almost like the early rounds of a prize fight where both guys are feeling each other out - at least that's how I feel. Good thing we don't get after each other anymore like we used to on here haha. I honestly havent really been on the bama boards or reading up much on it so far. You going to game and where it MOT?
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i

am going....pretty pumped...maybe lol
 
gps_3 said:
I think LSU having 2 losses and being an afterthought nationally since week 1 loss to Wisconsin has lessened some of the spark that it usually has. Seems like both teams have been at least top 10 for the last 5-7 years. Even though O is 4 games in, still hard to say for sure what kind of team they are. Obviously the team is playing with more confidence and there's much more enthusiasm. But as has been the case the past several years, you can't out-Bama Alabama. Etling will have to make plays with his arm for LSU to have a chance, and I'm not sure he can do it, especially because our DL should be all over him all game. I think Fournette will have a better day than last year, but he's not going to see holes like he did against Ole Miss. I can see Hurts struggling to pass it, but with his ability in the zone-read, I don't think the offense will stagnate like it did until late in 2014 against LSU. I think it will be relatively low scoring, probably a little boring to most of the public, but Alabama pulls away and wins something like 24-14. But a multi-turn over, missed FG loss for Alabama wouldn't shock me
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i
cannot see Hurts having a good throwing game either....I expect Aranda to confuse him there.....we just cannot let him run

Saban with 2 weeks is probably the biggest concern
 
I just hope Etling makes it through the game somewhat healthy. The OL has settled some while facing weaker defenses, but it's still an awful matchup. Weathersby is practicing again at RT but was with the 2's from what the media was allowed to see and Teuhema was still the starter. Williams against a hobbled Weathersby who hasn't played in a month or Teuhema, a natural guard, who has also been playing through an injury? No bueno.

If Teuhema starts at RT that also means at LG you'll have either Clapp, who needs shoulder surgery, or Brumfield who has looked okay when forced in but hasn't seen anything on this level like the others have.

Fournette had 19 carries last year. On 13 of them he was first hit at, or behind, the LOS. On 18 of 19 he was first hit within 2 yards of the LOS.

It should be a great atmosphere, if LSU can make a play or two early it will get wild. I think the defense is good enough to get it to the 4th quarter relatively close, but they'll need help from the offense and it probably won't be there. It goes without saying LSU can't afford to be negative in the TO battle or give up a non offensive score.

The weather should be nice. My plans are to have a good time, probably drink heavily, and if LSU pulls it out I'll watch it when I get home to figure out exactly how it happened.
 
M.O.T said:
I just hope Etling makes it through the game somewhat healthy. The OL has settled some while facing weaker defenses, but it's still an awful matchup. Weathersby is practicing again at RT but was with the 2's from what the media was allowed to see and Teuhema was still the starter. Williams against a hobbled Weathersby who hasn't played in a month or Teuhema, a natural guard, who has also been playing through an injury? No bueno.

If Teuhema starts at RT that also means at LG you'll have either Clapp, who needs shoulder surgery, or Brumfield who has looked okay when forced in but hasn't seen anything on this level like the others have.

Fournette had 19 carries last year. On 13 of them he was first hit at, or behind, the LOS. On 18 of 19 he was first hit within 2 yards of the LOS.

It should be a great atmosphere, if LSU can make a play or two early it will get wild. I think the defense is good enough to get it to the 4th quarter relatively close, but they'll need help from the offense and it probably won't be there. It goes without saying LSU can't afford to be negative in the TO battle or give up a non offensive score.

The weather should be nice. My plans are to have a good time, probably drink heavily, and if LSU pulls it out I'll watch it when I get home to figure out exactly how it happened.
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O.Line.

Played above themselves this year.....but like you.....I am looking at it on paper and getting that not so great feeling.

Agree with all the above you said......Danny needs to play a really clean game, hit some short passes to get his confidence going

but he cant be throwing "up for grab" deep balls vs this team....aint gonna work.
 
10409794-large.jpg
 
M.O.T said:
I just hope Etling makes it through the game somewhat healthy. The OL has settled some while facing weaker defenses, but it's still an awful matchup. Weathersby is practicing again at RT but was with the 2's from what the media was allowed to see and Teuhema was still the starter. Williams against a hobbled Weathersby who hasn't played in a month or Teuhema, a natural guard, who has also been playing through an injury? No bueno.

If Teuhema starts at RT that also means at LG you'll have either Clapp, who needs shoulder surgery, or Brumfield who has looked okay when forced in but hasn't seen anything on this level like the others have.

Fournette had 19 carries last year. On 13 of them he was first hit at, or behind, the LOS. On 18 of 19 he was first hit within 2 yards of the LOS.

It should be a great atmosphere, if LSU can make a play or two early it will get wild. I think the defense is good enough to get it to the 4th quarter relatively close, but they'll need help from the offense and it probably won't be there. It goes without saying LSU can't afford to be negative in the TO battle or give up a non offensive score.

The weather should be nice. My plans are to have a good time, probably drink heavily, and if LSU pulls it out I'll watch it when I get home to figure out exactly how it happened.
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Thanks as always for the personnel info. Any guess as to how LSU calls the game offensively? How would you approach it if you were calling plays?
 
not MOT, but Danny has to have quick throws on 1st and 2nd...slants, use TE.....think they will still try and get LF out in space(will there be any).....then if he gets confidence, they may take a shot deep here and there

just cant run str8 at 'em......and just not the bullshit I formation/ 1 wr set.......
 
twinkie13 said:
not MOT, but Danny has to have quick throws on 1st and 2nd...slants, use TE.....think they will still try and get LF out in space(will there be any).....then if he gets confidence, they may take a shot deep here and there

just cant run str8 at 'em......and just not the bullshit I formation/ 1 wr set.......
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Ya I think the approach taken past few years just wont work so gotta do some stuff diff. I tend to think you take quite a few deep shots - I think those chunk plays are the way to move it on Bama too hard to just move it 5 at a time. 1st down calls for both teams will be huge
 
Disagree, the only way to run at Bama is straight at them. You try to go horizontal and you get too many involved in flow.
Straight ahead, is the closest you can get to a one on one matchup.
 
I think running it in general without the use of a QB and numbers advantage against Bama defense is hard no matter which way you slice but totally agree the horizontal stuff is bad plan. Perhaps some swings and screens to RB and WR though could work
 
Press, Tamu dropping turkey day or is someone else moving there? This is the last one for LSU I think right?
 
Well I don't think you can run horizontal in the Sec

I just know that this dive right left right shit don't work, even with a once in a lifetime RB....

And it's at home

I'm saying we have a chance....which is more than I could say before
 
What makes running against Alabama so difficult is we don't have to put 8 in the box to stop the run. And press is right, running horizontally against Alabama is a bad idea. You need to be able to run between the tackles while we are in nickel or dime packages. That's where the hurry-up offenses have had success in the past, though Pruitt uses far less substituting than Kirby did, so that may be a moot point now. The thing that will beat Alabama is the same this year as it has been the last 8 years. You have to win the turnover and special teams battles. QB has to be efficient, not spectacular, though spectacular helps. You have to be balanced on offense. Tackle well on defense. It's a tall ask because Alabama is more talented at every position than most teams they play, so winning the one on one battles is very difficult to do consistently throughout a game. LSU has pretty comparable talent at most positions. Alabama DL vs LSU OL is a bad matchup for LSU. Hurts vs LSU secondary is a bad matchup for us. I don't trust our PK at all, but he has hit some clutch kicks before, including the one that sent the game to OT here in 2014. I think if Hurts can operate the zone read game effectively, and our DL creates tons of pressure, we should win by a comfortable margin. But if LSU's defense (which is far and away the best we've played so far) can force us to have to throw the ball, the game will be tight and anyone can win a 4th quarter game
 
GPS - since you brought up podcasts a few weeks ago.. New one I've recently added - The Audible with Feldman and Mandell. It's pretty good. The must listen though twice a week is Podcast Aint Played Nobody. The Solid Verbal and Shutdown Fullcast are more entertaining to me than intelligent football discussion.
 
CrimsonK said:
Thanks as always for the personnel info. Any guess as to how LSU calls the game offensively? How would you approach it if you were calling plays?
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I think they're going to call it like they have since the coaching change. There hasn't been a huge change in run pass ratio, but they've passed more on neutral downs, gotten more people involved, and have been more active in the short to medium game but will still take their shots. Score/situation has probably contributed to the run ratio remaining where it was. They haven't picked up the tempo as much as I thought they would, but I don't think they'll keep it on the ground to try and further shorten it.

I think Orgeron/Ensminger believe what they did in October gives them the best chance to win and aren't really concerned if it also gives them a better chance to lose by 24. The defenses haven't been good but it's tough to disagree at this point. It has brought some energy back to the offensive side of the ball and I can't recall a Miles coached offense averaging 8+ ypp over any stretch of games.

I think there is also something to be said for the change in practice routine. I have to run but will add more on that later.
 
How much do you change when you have LF and Guice in the backfield? And D Will?
Not much....what you do, is make a QB change, hold people accountable and run different looks and use TEs and mix it up.....that's all it is.
It's not earth shattering....the cancers are gone.
And with what they recruit, it can be enough.

People don't get it....like MOt said, it's just rejuvenation...LSU still runs a pro offense...but the looks and predictability are different.
 
CrimsonK said:
GPS - since you brought up podcasts a few weeks ago.. New one I've recently added - The Audible with Feldman and Mandell. It's pretty good. The must listen though twice a week is Podcast Aint Played Nobody. The Solid Verbal and Shutdown Fullcast are more entertaining to me than intelligent football discussion.
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I listen to the Audible and PAPN. I did listen to Shutdown FullCast, but haven't in the last few weeks
 
Something I bet tomorrow it's less than my normal size bet so didn't put it in my main post but it's a primetime game -the over in the Oklahoma/Iowa St game. Iowa State has gotten things going a lot better offensively down the stretch. They made a really nice change at QB going with UGA transfer Jacob Park - he and Lanning had been platooning and they still will but Lanning more using his big frame to run and let Park throw - he especially brings a more vertical element that is huge. They get a very generous Sooner defense here that is dreadful trying to stop the pass and I think Iowa State can really take advantage of that - Ok is 124th in raw pass defense and their adjusted numbers are right there and about as bad. The functional offenses the Sooners have played have scored 33, 45, 46, 40 and 59. While I'm not quite ready to say the Clones get to the 40's I feel very confident they get to 27 at a minimum and I'd say very likely into the 30's. The bad news for Iowa State is they have almost no prayer of stopping Oklahoma. The run defense of the Clones is terrible. They are 114th or worse in a couple rush defense metrics and they will get a dose of the nations most under rated back, Joe Mixon. I mentioned the audible earlier and Bruce Feldman actually said he spoke to the Sooner RB coach and he said Mixon is a bigger talent than AP was who he recruited and coached. Iowa State is better in the secondary than what they have at LB but that's a relative term. The Baylor game is the main one I look to in terms of like for like and I think Okie could have a similar level of output - 45 points on 600+ yards. Pace should be above average but not lightning fast like some B12 matchups but I think the matchups on the field lend themselves to efficiency and explosiveness. I think Iowa State keeps it within the number also and their TT will likely be a small add for me. I think it's something like 48-31
 
Well, I just read Joe Mixon was suspended today after an altercation with a parking lot attendant. Doesn't sound like it was domestic violence again but still not a good look and bummer for bet
 
Dipping my toe back in this week:

OU/ISU OV 70.5
Colorado -13
Syracuse +26.5
Maryland +31
Vanderbilt +25.5
Arkansas +5.5
aTm -13.5
Nebraska +17
SCAR/Mizzou UN 56
 
That was a great article but I will prob never attempt to read anything else on that website - it was slower and harder to scroll/navigate than a turkish pirated movie and sports stream site
 
The rumor is that the Tiger Band will play "Neck" at the game lol.........the good ole days

[video=youtube;cLaOTrVXWso]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLaOTrVXWso[/video]
 
CrimsonK said:
That was a great article but I will prob never attempt to read anything else on that website - it was slower and harder to scroll/navigate than a turkish pirated movie and sports stream site
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Google Chrome was not impressed with the set up that's for sure
 
CrimsonK said:
That was a great article but I will prob never attempt to read anything else on that website - it was slower and harder to scroll/navigate than a turkish pirated movie and sports stream site
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Well I take the print version, have for 25 years.
Easier to scroll through the pages. I'm sure I've never been to their website, but thought you guys would enjoy it.
You should have tried searching for it, that was a chore.
 
Two noteworthy additions:

Mizzou changing entire defensive scheme this week and moving back to what they played last year, schematically. This comes a week after Odom took control of the defense last week in another poor effort.

Ga Southern turning over play calling duties to Co-OC Coach Dean. Perhaps he will actually run the triple option and not that crap they've run out there thus far. My big concern with taking the dog is Ole Miss being a fast starter and if this gets out of balance early it's prob curtains for the Eagles.
 
I have won on that bet just about every week this year - last week was the worst odds I can remember it was -105. I think I'm done the odds have gone too far. There are two other Bama props that win just about every week also
 
You're getting colder. ;)

Something worth noting on Oklahoma as it pertains to spreads and totals. If you watched the game they only ran tempo a couple of times during the game and even though they had tremendous success doing it, they got away from it in order to protect their defense. I don't think it's a bad strategy by Stoops, but in our world, the gambling world, it's very impactful. Oklahoma is overall an average paced team - they run 81 ppg for the year but only 76 last night. So while their ppg didn't decrease dramatically, it had a huge impact on Iowa St. ISU averages 82 ppg on year but ran only 56 plays! That is a great way to protect your defense if you are Stoops, you just have to hit Westbrook a few times a game for a TD which is simple to do for them and then snap the ball with 5 seconds left on play clock and you've taken your greatest weakness, your defense, and masked that. It was a miracle the total was even close last night given the pace it played out. Ok has Baylor, WVU and Ok State left on the schedule so their totals will be extremely high but I would be very cautious taking an over with them based on what they've done the past two games. It also really guarantees they were never going to cover a 21 point line playing that style - they won't be asked to cover huge numbers from here on out - -10 figures to be biggest number and thats a horse of a diff color than asking for 21 on the road but something worth noting on them down the stretch.
 
Also took Arky +14 next week at home against LSU. That's only early GOY line I've got for the week.
 
UF is -3.5/4 at Arky this weekend

LSU is -14 at Arky next weekend

Are we to believe that LSU will be -14 at home against UF later this month? If so I'll gladly take Gators. I know that's an oversimplification but that's just one piece of the puzzle that put me on BERTS Boyz
 
CrimsonK said:
Two noteworthy additions:

Mizzou changing entire defensive scheme this week and moving back to what they played last year, schematically. This comes a week after Odom took control of the defense last week in another poor effort.
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Someone may have seen this coming:

http://athlonsports.com/college-football/sec-coaches-talk-anonymously-about-conference-foes-2016

Missouri

“It’ll be interesting because Barry Odom has been an odd-front guy his whole career and they play a head-up nose and two guys in the B gaps and you’re just not running the ball against him. They’re simply not going to let you do it, and they’ll bring pressure different ways off that. What’s funny, though, is he hired a defensive coordinator from TCU where they do it totally differently. So I’m curious to see what they run and how they do it . . . ."
 
GWarner27 said:
he's not very good at catching passes and crossing the goalline



unreal

...and SEC bands are one of my favorite things in this sport
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my nephew plays in the Pride of the Southland right now. Love watching the bands.
Absolutely correct Hurd can't catch. Crossing the goalline made me chuckle a little. And I will take Bama +points not to score on D, thank you very much. Streaks gotta end at some point
 
Grind...... Is Commonwealth sold out for Sat? It would be a sight to see that place rocking Sat.
I think this is one of KentLucky's most important games to date.
I don't see them winning just because I don't see Jorga losing to Vandy & UK in the same season but there is a 1st for everything
 
CrimsonK said:
UF is -3.5/4 at Arky this weekend

LSU is -14 at Arky next weekend

Are we to believe that LSU will be -14 at home against UF later this month? If so I'll gladly take Gators. I know that's an oversimplification but that's just one piece of the puzzle that put me on BERTS Boyz
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Arky & UVa are my top 2 ML Dogs this weekend.
 
ProV1Colt said:
Grind...... Is Commonwealth sold out for Sat? It would be a sight to see that place rocking Sat.
I think this is one of KentLucky's most important games to date.
I don't see them winning just because I don't see Jorga losing to Vandy & UK in the same season but there is a 1st for everything
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There were only a couple thousand tickets still available as of this morning, so it's going to be close. UK is doing a few special things at the game tomorrow to try to get the fans out. Advertising has been great though--UK football ran a commercial during the World Series which had me ready to run through a wall, and they took an entire timeout during the exhibition basketball game to play a hype vid on the video board encouraging people to come out.

Plus, they got this guy singing the national anthem and he'll be running up and down the sideline getting the crowd hype. Should be a great atmosphere.

[video=youtube;JludjQThzXk]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JludjQThzXk[/video]
 
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