SEC Week 10 Discussion

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Week 10, man. Going by too fast.

SEC Games 11/1:

aTm (-32'/59) v ULM

UF (+13/51) v UGA (Jacksonville)

UK (+6'/47') @ Mizzou

AU (+2/50') @ Ole Miss

Vandy (-7'/61) v Old Dominion

Arkansas (+10'/63') @ Miss St

UT (+7/56') @ SCAR


BYE: Alabama, LSU

Discuss...
 
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Situations of note:

aTm, UGA, UF off of a bye; Tenn, Mizzou, SCAR, Ark game before a bye

AU on game 2 of stretch of SC, @OM, aTm, @UGA, Samford, @Alabama

Ole Miss off first loss of season

aTm is @ AU next week

Winner of UT-SC likely goes to a bowl, loser probably not

UK can become bowl-eligible with a win

Not a whole lot here, mainly because it's in the middle of the conference slate and teams are less likely to look ahead. Mainly focus on what happened to teams the week(s) before, how beat up they are, how demoralized or confident they are etc..
 
Ole Miss may have some significant injuries. Tunsil, both Nkemdiches, and Prewitt got banged up. Denzel Nkemdiche is out for sure.
 
Was at a wedding all evening on Saturday, so didn't see much of the games and haven't gone through all the boxes yet, but a few things stood out to me:

It is really tough to win on the road in this conference. AU and Mizzou were the only home teams that didn't cover (depends on what line you had on UK), and they were the only two home favorites that had conference games. Lots of parity

Ole Miss finally fell victim to their schedule. Just a lot of quality opponents in a row

Miss St still standing tall at the top, but they certainly don't look invincible

Didn't see any of the game, and don't know why anyone would have watched it, but Mizzou is not good. Will likely be against them often the rest of the season

Was way off on ARK-UAB. In any other conference, or division even, Ark is a 8-9 win team. I think they get one of the Mississippi schools. Maybe LSU

LSU has been getting better since the AU debacle, which is most likely due to back to back home games, but they are talented but young and now they are starting to believe

AU continues to be just meh. I think a lot has to due with the expectations, but they have yet to put together a complete game. Hope it's not against Alabama when they do, because they are as good as anyone when they play well

Speaking of Alabama, I was glad to see them get off to a fast start on the road. Tennessee isn't all that good, but they have a decent defense and Alabama lit them up in the first quarter. Then they took a nap for the 2-3rd quarters. Part is due to not preparing for a 3rd string QB that was a planned redshirt until this week, part was a 4 score lead, but they can't relax in Red Stick in 2 weeks. Not for a second. And oh yeah, Amari Cooper for Heisman

Tenn may have found a QB, or maybe Dobbs just looked good against a defense that knew they were up by 27 and had not prepared for the zone read all week.

That's all I got from last week. Haven't even watched much of the Alabama game yet. Gonna concentrate on this week's games from here on
 
Ole Miss may have some significant injuries. Tunsil, both Nkemdiches, and Prewitt got banged up. Denzel Nkemdiche is out for sure.

Thanks for the update Grove. Alabama had some big injuries as well. Biggest is that Cam Robinson may be out for 2-4 weeks. Not sure if Yeldon is hurt or not. Landon Collins exited game, but came back in
 
Ole Miss may have some significant injuries. Tunsil, both Nkemdiches, and Prewitt got banged up. Denzel Nkemdiche is out for sure.

That was a gritty ass tough game man....the Magnolia bowl lived up to the hype.

Ya'll got a good team....it is hard to get a win in Tiger Stadium at night

GL the rest of the way
 
LSU's offensive line FINALLY looked like it was supposed to.....Ole Miss has a damn good D and LSU was getting a great push on 'em
 
I am foaming at the mouth to bet UK this week. Am I crazy?

Same. I get Mizzou being a favorite at home, but if I see a TD or better, I'm throwing down on it. Also like Ark catching DDs at Miss St
 
I was juat thinking where did all this ole miss love come from...I think miss D is up there as one of the best in country but i really do not think there one of the 4 best i hoped they kept winning so i could fade em vs miss st n rest of top sec teams they caught bama at a good time .... which nobody was expecting and then they were catapulted to the top... College is starting to look like nfl if you got a qb u got a chance they dont have much of a chance with Bo didfly Ole miss is solid. N think they have a great d and less then avg O i have watched them3 times other then pounding a less then stellar Texas AM just dont c the hype.. Nothin on O to scare u n reqlly rely on D n field position to help them but if they get a few athletes on the O side they will be nasty
 
Just my 2 cents.. Dont think any team is invincible they all have there deficiencies AUB n Miss st can b scored on fsu as well.. The teams with dominant D struggle on O.. UGA looks the scariest D comin together n Offense is realky strong QB makin strides each week
 
Just my 2 cents.. Dont think any team is invincible they all have there deficiencies AUB n Miss st can b scored on fsu as well.. The teams with dominant D struggle on O.. UGA looks the scariest D comin together n Offense is realky strong QB makin strides each week

There's this other team that leads the conference in total defense (5th in country) and is 3rd in total offense (15th nationally). Just sayin
 
If ur speaking of Uga there 1st in O n 4th in D but whose counting... And i said there the scariest team ATM hittin there stride at right time.. D comin together big time running game now a 2 headed monster to keep pressure off of HUD but if game is on QB could b trouble but theres no better friend to a QB then a big time RB
 
Hard to argue that Cooper isn't in the equation for Heisman. That was a break out game. I didn't give him full credit for the Florida stats since a chunk was on a blown coverage that I would have scored a TD on but that was impressive yesterday. WR White for WVU probably the other big star. The csu kid is good but we know the competition is horrid and no one cares ... but hard to argue with what he is doing.

To me, the Nebraska RB is the best offensive player in the nation right now.

bama 6.97 yards per play and couldn't get a first down in the two games I backed them. Hate them so much.
 
Hard to argue that Cooper isn't in the equation for Heisman. That was a break out game. I didn't give him full credit for the Florida stats since a chunk was on a blown coverage that I would have scored a TD on but that was impressive yesterday. WR White for WVU probably the other big star. The csu kid is good but we know the competition is horrid and no one cares ... but hard to argue with what he is doing.

To me, the Nebraska RB is the best offensive player in the nation right now.

bama 6.97 yards per play and couldn't get a first down in the two games I backed them. Hate them so much.


As soon as we start hearing about a defensive player winning the Heisman, I'll start believing a non-QB will win
 
As soon as we start hearing about a defensive player winning the Heisman, I'll start believing a non-QB will win

defensive player wont happen again with these rules. QB's are the deal ..... with Gurley going down to stupidity ( would have been undeserved Heisman anyway ) .. hard to imagine Mariota not winning.
 
Got it not arguin just showing what i saw.... Either way i think all sec teams can be beaten none are dominant like yrs passed
 
That is definitely true. Also, only one really bad team in Vanderbilt. Usually there's two or three total garbage teams
 
Which way you leaning on au/miss and cocktail game?

I'm leaning Ole Miss and UGA. Ole Miss mainly based on them being the home team and I think that matters tremendously in the West. AU hasn't looked good on the road in their 2 efforts thus far. However, I'm hesitant because I'm not sure Ole Miss has the offense to keep up with Auburn. First to 24 probably wins this. Also unsure how Ole Miss responds off a loss. As a bammer, I want an AU win so that we control our own destiny in the SEC again,

With UGA, I feel like they will take the opportunity to thrash Florida while they are down. UF has the look of a team that has given up. The players and staff know that Muschamp is gone. Just not sure they rally the troops here. Plus, UGA is pretty freaking good
 
I'm leaning Ole Miss and UGA. Ole Miss mainly based on them being the home team and I think that matters tremendously in the West. AU hasn't looked good on the road in their 2 efforts thus far. However, I'm hesitant because I'm not sure Ole Miss has the offense to keep up with Auburn. First to 24 probably wins this. Also unsure how Ole Miss responds off a loss. As a bammer, I want an AU win so that we control our own destiny in the SEC again,

With UGA, I feel like they will take the opportunity to thrash Florida while they are down. UF has the look of a team that has given up. The players and staff know that Muschamp is gone. Just not sure they rally the troops here. Plus, UGA is pretty freaking good

Thnx for your input. Lean uga hard as well. I just can't get comfortable with a play in Oxford.
 
I would Auburn or nada personally...

And yea, Richt ain't scared to stick it to FLA...lotta points and FLA defense CAN be good. IF they show.....

Gun to head, between the 2 games Id ML Aubbie
 
I would Auburn or nada personally...

And yea, Richt ain't scared to stick it to FLA...lotta points and FLA defense CAN be good. IF they show.....

Gun to head, between the 2 games Id ML Aubbie

I ml'd your boys last sat and loved it. :)
 
For me I like Auburn getting points and I like Georgia under 2 TD against Florida.

Auburn is more of a play that I feel Ole Miss isn't going to be able to shut them down enough to have Bo Wallace keep them in the game. It's one thing for Bo Wallace to play against Blake Sims or something; it's quite another to match the output and efficiency of a Nick Marshall.

Georgia is the play over Florida because if Florida trails in this game at all, do you really trust their passing offense to get them back in the game? Florida hasn't passed for 200 as a team in regulation in the SEC and while I get some of that falls on Driskel (who has been benched), I still think that they just don't have the talent on the outside to compete in the SEC against teams that can score.
 
4.66 and 4.68 yards per play allowed from Florida and Uga respectively. 6.57 yards per play uga vs 4.95 yards per play fla offensively. Splitting some hairs on schedule though I think Florida's has been slightly harder. One team with all the motivation in the world and the other in shambles. Still a lot to lay against that florida defense.
 
For me I like Auburn getting points and I like Georgia under 2 TD against Florida.

Auburn is more of a play that I feel Ole Miss isn't going to be able to shut them down enough to have Bo Wallace keep them in the game. It's one thing for Bo Wallace to play against Blake Sims or something; it's quite another to match the output and efficiency of a Nick Marshall.

Thats my worry backing Ole Miss, but AU's offense hasn't looked all that efficient all year until they played SCAR, who's defense is suspect to say the least. Maybe it was the shot in the arm AU needed. But it's not like AU's defense is LSU or Alabama either. Hard to have faith that Bo will right the wrongs from last week, but I like their WR against AU's secondary. Tough game to get a feel for, that's why I lean home team. Has mattered this season
 
Wallace had 336 last year ( but 2 picks and shitty completion percentage) and Auburn is 75th in the nation in pass defense allowing 242.0 per game. Wallace is avg'ing 259.37 per this year. I think he will light them up and will be looking for a prop on total yds and a Treadwell prop for total yds as well. (predicting 5 catches and 70yds as the numbers) Also predicting Florida will roll over and show the soft underbelly in a 34-7 loss. Appears that many/most love Kentuck this weekend, but i am not one of them ( but i won't be involved at all) GLTA.
 
asking bad teams to roll over in a rivalry game as big as TGOCP seems like a big ask. I'm not as tuned in to this game as I was years ago, but I'm really hoping UF gets above two TDs as I will definitely take them in my 5-pick a week contest and may play them with actual dollars as well. The quit thing is always a concern, but think about how these kids who are competitive were recruited by both schools/have friends on the other team and they're still dreaming about the NFL so I can't imagine they'll give up even with a lame duck coach (who I hope becomes our DC in 2015). The UF defense is always going to show up, so I'm wondering if I want Gurley re-instated cuz we know that line will jump even more...

Ole Miss in a nice bounceback spot, but Bo and the injuries are both equal concerns in my eyes
 
A couple of things from coach weekly presser:

Is Kenny Hill still your starter, and how has he responded to the adversity of the last few weeks?
“They’ve both gotten reps over the last week and will both continue to get reps. Nothing has changed from last Tuesday. Just like every other position out there, we’re playing football. After what’s happened, there’s really nothing off the table at that point. It gets back to what I said earlier, change for change’s sake is impractical. What you have to do is have a reason for change. Is that reason your ability to be efficient and prove to people that you can handle what’s going on? Or, disprove that you’re ready to play in those practice situations? So credibility amongst the players and coaching staff is at a premium right now, particularly with where we are.”
Can you talk about the overall health of your team going into this week?
“Looking back and evaluating where we were, I probably underestimated the 8-game stretch and how we handled it. We didn’t handle it the right way. We had a substantial amount of guys banged up or beat up, and I would say mentally tired. That’s something we tried to address last week. I think the bye week came at a great time for us. Usually when you lose, particularly the way we did, the bye week is the worst thing that can happen. But in this situation it was much needed. It gave us an opportunity to look within, heal up as much mentally as physically. It’s never a good time in any program for a loss like that. But there are good times for bye weeks. And our bye week came at the right time for us. How we’ve taken advantage of it from a practice standpoint, I think we’ve been smart and we’ve gotten done what we needed to get done from a physical standpoint. But we’ve also been able to take the pressure off our guys from a mental perspective. I liked our attitude coming out for practice yesterday. The key is going to be sustaining. Anyone can do something once. Now what? Are we going back to where we were over the last 3 or 4 weeks? Or are we going back to the team we used to be? Based on how we practiced yesterday, I would say the latter would be the case.”
Could you talk more about not handling the eight straight games as well as you thought?
“I think the 8-game stretch took a bigger toll than we thought. I probably didn’t handle that properly, particularly with the three hardest coming at the end of that stretch. Our situation was a little bit different than most in the country (no bye week). That’s not an excuse, that’s something we needed to manage better. When you go through something like we went through, for some people it’s catastrophic if it continues. Fortunately that’s not who we are and who we’ve been. For me it starts with me. What can you do better in those situations, and if it’s presented a second time what are you going to do about it? You have to recognize that, not as an excuse, but something that happened and where do we go from here. That’s what last week was about, from a physical and a mental standpoint, the approach from here on out for the rest of the year.”
 
Does anyone know the stat for teams the week after they play LSU or Alabama? Seems I remember that the style and size of those two beat up the other team pretty significantly and there is a pretty interesting ATS and SU stat against teams the week after playing those two. Maybe I made it up
 
Does anyone know the stat for teams the week after they play LSU or Alabama? Seems I remember that the style and size of those two beat up the other team pretty significantly and there is a pretty interesting ATS and SU stat against teams the week after playing those two. Maybe I made it up

No, there was something there.....I, like you, do not recall it
 
man, my number on UK is not what I could have gotten now. Didn't see that. If I weren't so heavy on it already, I would add more at 8.5. What am I missing?
 
I took UK at 6.5 and then added another unit at 8.5. Not sure what I'm missing unless they just come out really flat after playing MSU, but they are paying for a bowl game. Have to think they come out fired up
 
regarding the aubbie/ole miss game... the one thing that scares me if your backing ole miss is there inability to open the game up... no matter what freeze goin to play close to vest prob try to control clock i dont see them having a comfortable lead unless they force turnovers..... and gus runs circles around hughey.. Aubbie has a chance to open the game up cuz the have the offense to do it but they will be up against the best D... aubbie hasnt looked great on the road and there D has the ability to make ole miss Offense look good..... if ole miss can ground n pound and control clock they win if not they lose..... i think the first couple series will be pretty telling prob wait and live bet it to get a better feel... with the ole miss/bama u could see after 1st qtr that game was gonna be a barn burner...... and i was comfortable taking points.... cuz i sure no going in to the game it was crazy to ever think of taking ole miss.... id personally prefer ole miss to win cuz i think for playoff purposes aubbie is a more dangerous team.... im just not that impressed with ole miss...
 
every week there is one or two games where I just have no clue as far as what I think will happen. There are twenty others where I think I do and I am wrong.... anyway ... the ole miss/aub game could be a 34-38 game or a 20-14 game and neither would surprise me at all. Either team could win by double digits and it wouldn't surprise me either.

I wouldn't worry too much about the uk game. Better team getting that many cant be a terrible play.

There are a couple strange moves this week. ville and army stand out .. I think you might have some history pointing to Missouri that some trend players are going to go bonkers on though so I at least get it on some levels there.
 
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