SEC Week 0/1

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Now that practice is starting, let's start looking to week 0/1. Not the best slate of games, but with the brain trust here at CTG, I'm sure we can make some money. All lines are from my local or found via the Google box

Week 0:

Vandy -18.5 vs Hawaii

Week 1:

Florida +8 @ Utah
Kentucky -26.5 vs Ball St
South Carolina +3 vs UNC (Charlotte)
Alabama -39 vs MTSU
AU -39 vs UMASS
aTm -38 vs New Mexico
Tennessee -28 vs UVA (Nashville)
LSU -2.5 vs FSU (Orlando)
Mizzou vs South Dakota
Ole Miss vs Mercer
Arkansas vs Western Carolina
Miss St vs SE Lousiana
UGA vs UT Martin
Vandy vs Alabama A&M


Haven't really dived in just yet. My guess on the Alabama side is that we cover. It hasn't happened much, but the 3 times or so we've opened with a non P5 team, it hasn't been close. Things to remember are that we have an active QB competition going and host Texas the week after, though it would be unlike a Saban team to look past any opponent, but especially one on week one. Is UMASS still auto-fade material? Feel like AU will run away with this one and not stop scoring if they can help it. I think Florida is going to be better than most think, but I'm a long way from betting them here. I really like S Carolina in this spot. Feel like Tenn runs away with this one, same with aTm. I'm a little leery of LSU, mainly because I think they are a little overvalued going into the season. I think they are a legit threat to win the West, but I see them as a top 8-12 team, not a top 4-6 team at this point. I'll take FSU if it gets to +3 or better, but if it stays where it is, only live betting for me. Let's hear some thoughts, as mine are almost surely wrong. We're almost there fellas....
 
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I'm still refining my SEC PRs, but here is where I'm where I'm starting from:

Tier 1 (legit contenders to win the conference):

1) UGA
2) Alabama
3) LSU
Clear order, but none would surprise me if they won the conference

Tier 2 (teams that have the talent or momentum to challenge tier 1)
Tennessee
aTm
Tennessee has the momentum, aTm has the talent. Can UT back up last season and can Aggie finally make the jump?

Tier 3 (Good teams, capable of playing with most programs on any given Saturday, but not quite there)
Ole Miss
South Carolina
Kentucky

Tier 4 (Will make bowl, possibly scare some teams, talent level not comparable to upper tiers)
Auburn
Florida
Arkansas
Miss St
Mizzou

Tier 5 (Vanderbilt)
Vanderbilt
 
Definitely lean Scary in that one.

I feel the same way regarding LSU and we're they are in the national rankings but still a threat to win the West.
 
Getting to that time when teams are ending fall camp and beginning game week prep. Here are my thoughts on Alabama:

I would be shocked if the starting QB for the MTSU game is anyone other than Jalen Milroe. He's performed well enough in camp to get the first chance, though thoughts are mixed on whether that's because he's played really well, or the other guys just haven't played well enough to overtake him. Probably somewhere in the middle. That said, I would expect 2, maybe 3 guys to play some meaningful snaps at QB for this game. For betting purposes, I am looking at unders in this game. I expect Alabama to try to really lean on the run game, especially early in the season and especially with the running ability of Milroe. MTSU was best in C-USA, and 16th nationally, in YPC defense last season, and according to Steele, they return 8 starters on defense. While Alabama's OL and RBs will present a much tougher physical match than your typical CUSA team, I imagine it won't be like running through a wet paper sack for most of the game. And if we do play multiple QBs, I could envision a scenario where it's a bit difficult to get in a rhythm offensively. There have been multiple reports that the WR have been inconsistent this fall, which again could result in more runs and possibly dropped passes that kill drives. Further, both kickers have been outstanding this fall, so I can see a more conservative approach on 3rd downs given the opponent and the abilities of the kickers. And if the punter has a good day, I can see some long fields for MTSU. I also expect the Alabama defense to be really good this year, especially in the back 7. The pass rush should also be elite-level.

A lot to like pointing to the unders (Game, TT), and if you like the under, taking the points could also make sense, though a 45-3 final shouldn't really surprise anyone. I haven't bet it yet, but the line/total suggest a final score around 47-7. I am interested in both TT under and game under. Forcing turnovers has been an emphasis in camp for Alabama, so I could see getting burned either by forcing the turnovers, or missing while trying to force one and MTSU gets a couple of cheap scores. Weather shouldn't be a factor other than it being hotter than hell, even once the sun is down. Don't think it will affect either team as they are no doubt used to it by now. Since it's under we're interested in, I will wait until closer to kickoff as I imagine the total will only go up if it moves at all.

I'll try to have some more thoughts on other teams, though it is a pretty uninspiring slate of games. I'm traveling the rest of the week so hopefully I'll be able to do some reading and listening to podcasts with some good information
 
gps_3 said:
Getting to that time when teams are ending fall camp and beginning game week prep. Here are my thoughts on Alabama:

I would be shocked if the starting QB for the MTSU game is anyone other than Jalen Milroe. He's performed well enough in camp to get the first chance, though thoughts are mixed on whether that's because he's played really well, or the other guys just haven't played well enough to overtake him. Probably somewhere in the middle. That said, I would expect 2, maybe 3 guys to play some meaningful snaps at QB for this game. For betting purposes, I am looking at unders in this game. I expect Alabama to try to really lean on the run game, especially early in the season and especially with the running ability of Milroe. MTSU was best in C-USA, and 16th nationally, in YPC defense last season, and according to Steele, they return 8 starters on defense. While Alabama's OL and RBs will present a much tougher physical match than your typical CUSA team, I imagine it won't be like running through a wet paper sack for most of the game. And if we do play multiple QBs, I could envision a scenario where it's a bit difficult to get in a rhythm offensively. There have been multiple reports that the WR have been inconsistent this fall, which again could result in more runs and possibly dropped passes that kill drives. Further, both kickers have been outstanding this fall, so I can see a more conservative approach on 3rd downs given the opponent and the abilities of the kickers. And if the punter has a good day, I can see some long fields for MTSU. I also expect the Alabama defense to be really good this year, especially in the back 7. The pass rush should also be elite-level.

A lot to like pointing to the unders (Game, TT), and if you like the under, taking the points could also make sense, though a 45-3 final shouldn't really surprise anyone. I haven't bet it yet, but the line/total suggest a final score around 47-7. I am interested in both TT under and game under. Forcing turnovers has been an emphasis in camp for Alabama, so I could see getting burned either by forcing the turnovers, or missing while trying to force one and MTSU gets a couple of cheap scores. Weather shouldn't be a factor other than it being hotter than hell, even once the sun is down. Don't think it will affect either team as they are no doubt used to it by now. Since it's under we're interested in, I will wait until closer to kickoff as I imagine the total will only go up if it moves at all.

I'll try to have some more thoughts on other teams, though it is a pretty uninspiring slate of games. I'm traveling the rest of the week so hopefully I'll be able to do some reading and listening to podcasts with some good information
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I bought off my Texas +6.5 bet - hoping you and some others are right and maybe see a 7 or 7.5. Still see a down year (relatively speaking) for Bama and OSU - and maybe even Georgia (schedule so easy though). Just think replacing a stud QB is going to be hard for all of them. But it's an ever so slight fade as you know they have boatloads of talent. In your guys case, replacing the 1,2 and 12th picks is a lot to overcome to be elite. But we'll see. GL
 
lvmike32 said:
I bought off my Texas +6.5 bet - hoping you and some others are right and maybe see a 7 or 7.5. Still see a down year (relatively speaking) for Bama and OSU - and maybe even Georgia (schedule so easy though). Just think replacing a stud QB is going to be hard for all of them. But it's an ever so slight fade as you know they have boatloads of talent. In your guys case, replacing the 1,2 and 12th picks is a lot to overcome to be elite. But we'll see. GL
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That's certainly a fair point. I don't think there's any replacing Bryce Young. And even though Will Anderson and Jahmyr Gibbs were 1st round picks, I don't think it's a stretch to think we can replace their production, if not their talent. But there's no question the QB position is taking a serious step back compared to Bryce. My hope is that we will be less-reliant on having a Bryce-type talent at QB for our offense to function.

NIL and the portal are having the desired effect on parity. I don't think the # of teams that can win it all has necessarily increased, but the gap between UGA/Alabama/Ohio st and the next tier is decreasing
 
gps_3 said:
That's certainly a fair point. I don't think there's any replacing Bryce Young. And even though Will Anderson and Jahmyr Gibbs were 1st round picks, I don't think it's a stretch to think we can replace their production, if not their talent. But there's no question the QB position is taking a serious step back compared to Bryce. My hope is that we will be less-reliant on having a Bryce-type talent at QB for our offense to function.

NIL and the portal are having the desired effect on parity. I don't think the # of teams that can win it all has necessarily increased, but the gap between UGA/Alabama/Ohio st and the next tier is decreasing
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Yeah, I'm real interested to see how Tennessee does. They lose their QB and lot of talent on offense. Is that offense really a plug and play? But agree - LSU, Texas, USC Michigan and few others - if there is any year to have a changing of the guard this is it with those 3 replacing stud QBs.
 
Good assessment of SC.

Only thing I have to say about Gamecocks is- watch LaNorris Sellers.

He missed his jr season due to injury and fell into the lap of SC but has the potential to be on another level.
 
ksimpsc said:
Good assessment of SC.

Only thing I have to say about Gamecocks is- watch LaNorris Sellers.

He missed his jr season due to injury and fell into the lap of SC but has the potential to be on another level.
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Good to see ya. I’m kinda starting to buy in a lil. Can’t wait to see em play…
 
lvmike32 said:
Yeah im tempted by Tennessee +9.5 vs bama goy line. If i get 10 or can buy 1/2 (think bol is allowing buys now) probably give it a shot. Think Huepple offense will roll again.
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That could be so, but the reason Saban brought in the transfer DBs is to be more versatile than we were last year, especially in the Tenn game. And I wouldn’t discount the Kevin Steele effect either. Regardless, I don’t bet GOY because I duck at forecasts until I’ve seen some live game action
 
gps_3 said:
That could be so, but the reason Saban brought in the transfer DBs is to be more versatile than we were last year, especially in the Tenn game. And I wouldn’t discount the Kevin Steele effect either. Regardless, I don’t bet GOY because I duck at forecasts until I’ve seen some live game action
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Yeah, as I've discussed previously doing a slight fade of Bama preseason - currently have LSU +7 and Miss +14. Bought off Texas +6.5 but will add at 7 or buy up. I just think Bama has slipped a little the last few years and now you have to replace Young and Andersen - and it doesn't sound like the QB situation is all that great. But only 1 unit bets. Like I said, I don't think you get rich fading Saban. thanks
 
lvmike32 said:
Yeah, as I've discussed previously doing a slight fade of Bama preseason - currently have LSU +7 and Miss +14. Bought off Texas +6.5 but will add at 7 or buy up. I just think Bama has slipped a little the last few years and now you have to replace Young and Andersen - and it doesn't sound like the QB situation is all that great. But only 1 unit bets. Like I said, I don't think you get rich fading Saban. thanks
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You have no shortage of folks who feel the same way. Maybe (probably) it's just the fan in me, but I believe the rumors of our demise are premature. First team in history with a 90+% blue chip ratio right? Will most certainly be the top team on the 247 talent composite. I understand we also led those two talent measures last year and the year before, so it doesn't mean everything, but I don't think it was a talent shortage that got us in trouble. I do think the change in coordinators is a significant positive for us.

I'll try to quit fanboying haha. I think I'll have a decent handle on our team after game 1, and certainly after the Texas game. But the way Saban has been acting this fall camp has me very optimistic
 
gps_3 said:
You have no shortage of folks who feel the same way. Maybe (probably) it's just the fan in me, but I believe the rumors of our demise are premature. First team in history with a 90+% blue chip ratio right? Will most certainly be the top team on the 247 talent composite. I understand we also led those two talent measures last year and the year before, so it doesn't mean everything, but I don't think it was a talent shortage that got us in trouble. I do think the change in coordinators is a significant positive for us.

I'll try to quit fanboying haha. I think I'll have a decent handle on our team after game 1, and certainly after the Texas game
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such a high bar really - it's championship or bust. That's hard to live up to every year. To me, all about the QB. But GL going to be an interesting year.
 
lvmike32 said:
such a high bar really - it's championship or bust. That's hard to live up to every year. To me, all about the QB. But GL going to be an interesting year.
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Alabama isn't compared to other teams, they are compared to other Alabama teams. But that doesn't really matter. I don't mind the doubts about Alabama. I think they are legit. I do get tired of analysts and media stating doubts about Alabama, and then glossing over those exact same issues for other teams that don't have the talent level we do, nor do they have the greatest coach to ever do it. It will be a fun season because I truly don't know what to expect from so many teams. I just hope my wife lets me really dive into some of these games next week. Or I don't drink too much to pay attention haha
 
twinkie13 said:
Don’t go and start feeling sorry for em now lol
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lol I don't think I am. I think they have slipped a little and that's why I'm betting against them on GOY lines because I think they are overvalued. I think 7 is too many for LSU, 14 for Ole Miss and 7 for Texas but we'll see. I think they're taking a big step down at QB this year and that is so important. But also where are the R1 WRs, RBs and OL - seems like that is taking a little dip. Again, we shall see.
 
lvmike32 said:
lol I don't think I am. I think they have slipped a little and that's why I'm betting against them on GOY lines because I think they are overvalued. I think 7 is too many for LSU, 14 for Ole Miss and 7 for Texas but we'll see. I think they're taking a big step down at QB this year and that is so important. But also where are the R1 WRs, RBs and OL - seems like that is taking a little dip. Again, we shall see.
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I’ll give you WR, but OL has 3 future 1st rounders on it, and the RBs will probably be best in the SEC this year. And of course we’re taking a big step down at QB. So are UGA, Ohio St, and Tennessee to name a few. And Jayden Daniels is going to have to throw it farther than 10 yards downfield for me to think he’s elite
 
gps_3 said:
I’ll give you WR, but OL has 3 future 1st rounders on it, and the RBs will probably be best in the SEC this year. And of course we’re taking a big step down at QB. So are UGA, Ohio St, and Tennessee to name a few. And Jayden Daniels is going to have to throw it farther than 10 yards downfield for me to think he’s elite
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I dont cap so i actually make very few bets of my own. And when i do i usually lose. I read a ton and track folks for at least a full season. I try to end up tailing professional level cappers like bookie, duck, etc. So i probably shouldn't make these goy plays but its just a strong lean. And you guys could still win all these games but not cover too. Lot of points to give good teams. Honestly i cant name 1 player on bama or georgia anymore. Just from all ive read i think lsu, Tennessee and Texas will likely have the better qb on the field getting nice points. Worth the 3 unit risk.
 
gps_3 said:
I’ll give you WR, but OL has 3 future 1st rounders on it, and the RBs will probably be best in the SEC this year. And of course we’re taking a big step down at QB. So are UGA, Ohio St, and Tennessee to name a few. And Jayden Daniels is going to have to throw it farther than 10 yards downfield for me to think he’s elite
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I don’t think TN is taking a step down at QB at all; certainly a big step. Joe Milton wayyyyyy more talented. Think he’s finally out it together. We’ll find out soon enough.
 
LSU Maason Smith suspended for opener and DBs little banged up. GA Branson Robinson gone for the year and Milton dealing with a hammy.

Think Auburn will be solid this year but not sure it will translate to more than their win total. Just thinking they’ll be a tough out when dogged. Will be interesting to see what vegas thinks of them going forward.

GLTA this year. We’re finally here.
 
captjohn67 said:
LSU Maason Smith suspended for opener and DBs little banged up. GA Branson Robinson gone for the year and Milton dealing with a hammy.

Think Auburn will be solid this year but not sure it will translate to more than their win total. Just thinking they’ll be a tough out when dogged. Will be interesting to see what vegas thinks of them going forward.

GLTA this year. We’re finally here.
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how are you, sir?

good to see you
 
captjohn67 said:
All good, except the freekin heat. Good lord it’s been bad and I know it has been out your way as well. Hope you and the missus are hanging tough. We’re almost on the right side of it. Just a little bit longer and sweatshirts and bourbon will be on tap. Cheers.
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I thought is was hot in Alabama. I'm in Scottsdale right now, and dry heat or not, it is hot AF
 
gps_3 said:
I thought is was hot in Alabama. I'm in Scottsdale right now, and dry heat or not, it is hot AF
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It's far from dry this week, first sign of moisture we've had all Summer started last weekend and it's a million times more miserable than it has been. No rain to even show for it in my part of the Valley
 
twinkie13 said:
So Nicky doesn’t name a QB starter for the 1st time ever? That correct?
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First time I can remember there not being a depth chart at all. But don't think he named a starter in 2011 or 2016 either. He used the "OR" designation between the QBs that were in line for minutes. He went on a rant last year at this time about the depth chart, I'm guessing he just decided against releasing one this year, not necessarily because of QB. I get the feeling that it negatively impacted some position groups last year based on where certain players landed, either being named starter or not

It's going to be Milroe on Saturday though. I'm starting to hear rumblings that Simpson needs more time (similar to Mac Jones) to adjust given that he played in a small division in West Tennessee in HS. Buchner may actually be 2nd in line, though I'm not sure that is what we'll see against MTSU. The last few times we had a competition leading into the season, the eventual starter won the job in game 1 three times (AJ McCarron, Blake Sims, and Jalen Hurts). Only once did it spill into later games (2015 when Jake Coker eventually took charge 3 or 4 games in).
 
Only two significant line moves in SEC games so far:

Florida from +8 to +4.5 - obviously due to the Cam Rising news. Think there are some other injury concerns too? The tight end maybe? I am higher on Florida than some, but I think this is just a tough ask for the Gators. I haven't made a play on it yet, but I am leaning Utes, even with the injuries. I have a RSW over bet on Florida, so I won't be too disappointed if I take Utah and Florida pulls the upset

Auburn from -39 to -35. I assume this is all because of UMASS' "impressive" performance in week 0? I get that, and that they already have a game under their belt, but I think AU blasts them. I didn't watch UMASS last week, but even with a depleted roster, AU has to be much more talented. Freeze's first game back in the SEC, and I think it will be a tough season for them, so I could see them scoring as much as possible in this one. Just feels like a 59-14 type game to me
 
If Graham Mertz goes into Salt Lake City and wins at night, then we've entered a parallel universe of some kind. Utah D should be pretty good and give him problems.
 
No surprise to anyone who has been paying attention, but "sources" say Jalen Milroe will start for Alabama tomorrow. I think he will play well, but any mistake he makes (and he will make some) will be magnified by the media
 
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