SEC Week 0/1

Sorry I haven't been around. Here are the SEC Week 1 lines:

Thurs:

Tennessee -36 vs Ball St
Mizzou -21 vs La Tech

Sat:

aTm vs Sam Houston
Arkansas -6.5 vs Cincinnati
Ole Miss -21.5 vs Troy
Florida +3 vs Utah
Kentucky -16 vs Miami (OH)
S Carolina -12.5 vs Georgia St
UGA -17 vs Oregon (Atlanta)
Alabama -42 vs Utah St
Miss St -16 vs Memphis
Vandy vs Elon
AU vs Mercer

Sunday:

LSU -3 vs FSU (NOLA)
 
I think the Alabama 1H "system" will be back on track this season, though I wouldn't be surprised to see us run the ball more often this year which could lead to more clock being run. I do expect the defense to be much better than the last 4 years, so maybe more short fields and defensive scores to help out

I'm kinda interested in the under in the UGA game. 53 is a low number in this era for sure, but I see several realistic game scripts that could contribute to the under. UGA does not have an explosive offense, and I'm not sure how explosive you can be when your 3 best players on offense are all TEs. Is there any reason to think that Oregon's offense will have a lot of success? I think there are two ways to beat UGA: get them into a shootout and make their offense try to keep up, or grind clock and keep it close and hope a turnover or two. I don't think Bo Nix can do the first, so that leaves the grind it out game. Now, Bo Nix is perfectly capable of turning it over 3 times and UGA running away with it, but I think that can also lead to under. And while recognizing the disparity in defensive teams, I can't get last season's opener out of my head. This smells like a 27-13 type game to me, though I'd buy a 38-14 UGA win too

Utah seems short to me. Only hope I think the Gators have is humidity and crowd noise

I like Arkansas S Carolina to be improved, looking for reasons not to take them here

Same for Miss St. Think they'll be an under the radar good team this season

I think the value for LSU will be early on, before their lack of depth can take a toll.

Looking forward to the first real weekend of the season and for the continued conversation

Good luck y'all
 
Not exactly sure how effective it was...but heard that Utah training staff would water down the practice field enough so that when the temperature heats up, it wasn't your typical desert dry heat, low humidity, but instead the players would be right on top of and surrounded by a purposefully created humidity situation. Could probably find a story about it online, not sure what it actually felt like, but at least a good attempt to recreate that kind of condition.
 
s--k said:
Not exactly sure how effective it was...but heard that Utah training staff would water down the practice field enough so that when the temperature heats up, it wasn't your typical desert dry heat, low humidity, but instead the players would be right on top of and surrounded by a purposefully created humidity situation. Could probably find a story about it online, not sure what it actually felt like, but at least a good attempt to recreate that kind of condition.
Click to expand...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559323395568783360
 
Makes sense they did it indoors to trap the heat and humidity. When I heard they were watering down the fields, I thought that Utah, as most of the west, is probably experiencing some drought conditions and it might not be very popular to say that is how they are using hundreds or even thousands of gallons of the university's water resources. Water restrictions in the west can be pretty crazy, water courts, water judges, etc. Maybe that is why that part was excluded from the tweet?
 
gps_3 said:
I think the Alabama 1H "system" will be back on track this season, though I wouldn't be surprised to see us run the ball more often this year which could lead to more clock being run. I do expect the defense to be much better than the last 4 years, so maybe more short fields and defensive scores to help out

I'm kinda interested in the under in the UGA game. 53 is a low number in this era for sure, but I see several realistic game scripts that could contribute to the under. UGA does not have an explosive offense, and I'm not sure how explosive you can be when your 3 best players on offense are all TEs. Is there any reason to think that Oregon's offense will have a lot of success? I think there are two ways to beat UGA: get them into a shootout and make their offense try to keep up, or grind clock and keep it close and hope a turnover or two. I don't think Bo Nix can do the first, so that leaves the grind it out game. Now, Bo Nix is perfectly capable of turning it over 3 times and UGA running away with it, but I think that can also lead to under. And while recognizing the disparity in defensive teams, I can't get last season's opener out of my head. This smells like a 27-13 type game to me, though I'd buy a 38-14 UGA win too

Utah seems short to me. Only hope I think the Gators have is humidity and crowd noise

I like Arkansas S Carolina to be improved, looking for reasons not to take them here

Same for Miss St. Think they'll be an under the radar good team this season

I think the value for LSU will be early on, before their lack of depth can take a toll.

Looking forward to the first real weekend of the season and for the continued conversation

Good luck y'all
Click to expand...
You mind elaborating on the LSU take. Respect your opinion and have no clue what to expect Sunday night. Is this a hint at more of a first half angle or are you speaking in terms of early in the season against lesser competition. Have high hope for the future but this season 7-5 possibly 8-4 feels like the ceiling for expectations. Thanks for all your contributions regarding the SEC.
 
twinkie13 said:
@gps_3 the RB position is better now with Gibbs.
How about the WRs?
Click to expand...

Not only Gibbs, but McClellan and Williams being healthy is a big boost, not to mention that Trey Sanders is another year removed from the car accident. And Jamarion Miller may end up being the best of all of them when his career is over. I’m a little skeptical of the WR, but reports are that the top 4 (Burton, Holden, Prentice and Brooks) have had a really good fall. Not sure if the Louisville transfer Harrell is going to help or not yet. He was pretty raw
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
You mind elaborating on the LSU take. Respect your opinion and have no clue what to expect Sunday night. Is this a hint at more of a first half angle or are you speaking in terms of early in the season against lesser competition. Have high hope for the future but this season 7-5 possibly 8-4 feels like the ceiling for expectations. Thanks for all your contributions regarding the SEC.
Click to expand...

I think Kelly is a really good coach, and LSU wasn’t lacking for talent when they fired O. But after all the fallout, I think it’s going to take at least one full recruiting class for the depth to get back to where it needs to be. I think the first half of the season that LSU will look closer to what we all expect them to be, but will drop off on the back half as the season takes its toll. I think there will be value on them for the first several weeks, then the books will overcorrect right as they lose some of their steam.
 
s--k said:
Makes sense they did it indoors to trap the heat and humidity. When I heard they were watering down the fields, I thought that Utah, as most of the west, is probably experiencing some drought conditions and it might not be very popular to say that is how they are using hundreds or even thousands of gallons of the university's water resources. Water restrictions in the west can be pretty crazy, water courts, water judges, etc. Maybe that is why that part was excluded from the tweet?
Click to expand...

I don’t think there’s any way to recreate the humidity of the southeast, particularly the gulf coast. I just played golf in Arizona in 100 degree heat and it was relatively comfortable compared to some rounds I’ve played this summer in Alabama. I still lean Utah, but I do not think they’ll be acclimated to the weather unless they got there a week ago
 
gps_3 said:
I don’t think there’s any way to recreate the humidity of the southeast, particularly the gulf coast. I just played golf in Arizona in 100 degree heat and it was relatively comfortable compared to some rounds I’ve played this summer in Alabama. I still lean Utah, but I do not think they’ll be acclimated to the weather unless they got there a week ago
Click to expand...
I think what happens is that it is different. I can handle the southern humidity fine but I cannot handle the triple digit dry heat of Las Vegas. I live in Houston now and it is cake in comparison. I went back to Las Vegas this past weekend and it was 105 or so outside. Couldn't be in that for more than thirty seconds before feeling like Hansel.

It will be different for the Utes players. No idea what kind of factor that would play though.
 
RetroVK said:
I think what happens is that it is different. I can handle the southern humidity fine but I cannot handle the triple digit dry heat of Las Vegas. I live in Houston now and it is cake in comparison. I went back to Las Vegas this past weekend and it was 105 or so outside. Couldn't be in that for more than thirty seconds before feeling like Hansel.

It will be different for the Utes players. No idea what kind of factor that would play though.
Click to expand...
There are quite a few Texans and Floridians on the team. 7pm helps as compared to day game fora little less extreme conditions.
 
So far I’m on:

Alabama 1h -28 and 1H TT O 33
Utah -2.5
S Carolina -12.5
UGA/UO under 54.5

Out of town, going to Vandy game tonight as my penance for making my wife go to Alabama/Texas next week. Will be lurking around most of today

Good luck to all
 
gps_3 said:
So far I’m on:

Alabama 1h -28 and 1H TT O 33
Utah -2.5
S Carolina -12.5
UGA/UO under 54.5

Out of town, going to Vandy game tonight as my penance for making my wife go to Alabama/Texas next week. Will be lurking around most of today

Good luck to all
Click to expand...
I’ve actually been once. Very very different SEC experience, but was cool. Enjoy
 
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