SEC Preseason/Week 1

I haven't looked at too much outside of Alabama, but I think the following teams are the only ones capable of making/winning the SEC Champ Game:

UGA
Texas
Alabama
Ole Miss
Missouri
Tennessee
Oklahoma
LSU

UGA- Probably still the most talented/deepest team, but it's a pretty narrow gap over Texas and Alabama. They've earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to replacing lost talent, but they aren't as deep as they've been and I think losing both of Beck's security blankets (Bowers and McConkey) will be an issue. This is easily the toughest schedule they've had in the Kirby era. While I imagine they will be favored in every game, I count 4-5 "losable" games for them. This tougher schedule may result in their first regular season loss since 2020(!), but may make them better able to handle the jump in talent they would face in the post-season

Texas- Hard to find info on them as it appears that most of their writers are cheerleaders instead of somewhat impartial. I know that's true to some extent for all programs, but I saw one Texas guy compare their WR room now to the one Sark had at Alabama in 2019 (4 1st rounders and a 2nd rounder). The schedule sets up pretty well and they have a ton of talent. Losing the 2 RBs last week is a thing though, and I question how they will hold up over the course of a 12 game season against at minimum, a moderate increase in competition level. I think that game in College Station on Thanksgiving weekend could be pretty intense

Alabama- Putting aside the long-term implications of replacing Saban, this is a pretty talented team with a lot of guys who went 9-0 in the SEC last year. While losing Caleb Downs is a hit for sure, none of the other portal losses is really that concerning for this season. The portal hit the secondary pretty hard, and while not many of those guys had played significant minutes, they had at least been in college for a season or two and now Alabama is replacing them with freshmen, although they are talented. I heard on a podcast that even with all the portal losses, they gained more experience than they lost. The schedule is tough, but manageable if the expectation is a playoff berth. I think 9-3 gets in, and 10-2 certainly does.

Ole Miss- I am concerned about Kiffin's ability to win the big games against the big guys, but he's done a really good job with building an SEC roster. I think this season will be the first one where he has the guys and depth he needs on the lines of scrimmage. The schedule is very manageable

Missouri- Probably the second easiest schedule in the conference. I can barely tell you anyone on their team, but they are on a pretty good trajectory

Tennessee- All depends on Nico. If he is who they think he is, I think they are capable of winning a lot of games. They have to play both Alabama and Texas, but other than that there's not much, plus they get the Tide in Knoxville

Oklahoma- A lot has to go right for them to make the SECCG, but it's possible. The QB has to fix his turnover issues, or else it won't matter how good their defense is. It's a tough schedule and I wouldn't put any money on them, but it's possible

LSU- Similar to OU, a lot has to go right, but it did 2 seasons ago. A more manageable schedule than OU, but still pretty tough. Need the defense to make significant improvement to offset the loss of Daniels, Nabors, and Thomas. Their OL is a great place to start though
 
B.A.R. said:
Yes, I mean a mixture of all the recruiting services.

This is just 247.

Wild West when it comes to some of these sites nowadays.

I guess that's beside the point of the post, just myself thinking out loud.
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I think they all do a pretty good job, but you can certainly nitpick here and there. My main point was that there seems to be this belief among many in the mainstream media that since Saban left that Alabama is somehow devoid of talent, when in fact, we may have the most talent on paper in the entire country. Add to that a consensus top 5 coach, and maybe we can aim higher than the Music City Bowl this season
 
gps_3 said:
I think they all do a pretty good job, but you can certainly nitpick here and there. My main point was that there seems to be this belief among many in the mainstream media that since Saban left that Alabama is somehow devoid of talent, when in fact, we may have the most talent on paper in the entire country. Add to that a consensus top 5 coach, and maybe we can aim higher than the Music City Bowl this season
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For sure.

A lot of top end talent in the B1G this year.

A lot of overall talent down your way.
 
gps_3 said:
I think they all do a pretty good job, but you can certainly nitpick here and there. My main point was that there seems to be this belief among many in the mainstream media that since Saban left that Alabama is somehow devoid of talent, when in fact, we may have the most talent on paper in the entire country. Add to that a consensus top 5 coach, and maybe we can aim higher than the Music City Bowl this season
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I think that’s what Bama fans are telling themselves. No one thinks there isn’t talent there. We wanna see what he does with and going forward….
 
twinkie13 said:
I think that’s what Bama fans are telling themselves. No one thinks there isn’t talent there. We wanna see what he does with and going forward….
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I think the concerns on recruiting have been answered, no reason to think they won't continue to accumulate talent moving forward. Maybe not to the Saban degree, but nobody expects him to be Saban. As for on the field, we will see if a tougher conference makes a difference, but his history suggests he knows how to win. And now that 2 even 3 losses probably gets him in the playoff, I think it's reasonable to expect that he will consistently be in the playoff/national title hunt. But I saw one CBS analyst pick us 8th in the SEC this season. Seems like wishful thinking to me
 
The playoff helps us(LSU and Bama) no doubt. I want to see him on a bounceback game in the SEC. Saban was a master at this, and didn’t need to utilize it often. Your boy will have to much more.
 
After what transpired in January, I doubt you’ll get a lot of sympathy from Alabama folks on tampering allegations
 
gps_3 said:
I haven't looked at too much outside of Alabama, but I think the following teams are the only ones capable of making/winning the SEC Champ Game:

UGA
Texas
Alabama
Ole Miss
Missouri
Tennessee
Oklahoma
LSU

UGA- Probably still the most talented/deepest team, but it's a pretty narrow gap over Texas and Alabama. They've earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to replacing lost talent, but they aren't as deep as they've been and I think losing both of Beck's security blankets (Bowers and McConkey) will be an issue. This is easily the toughest schedule they've had in the Kirby era. While I imagine they will be favored in every game, I count 4-5 "losable" games for them. This tougher schedule may result in their first regular season loss since 2020(!), but may make them better able to handle the jump in talent they would face in the post-season

Texas- Hard to find info on them as it appears that most of their writers are cheerleaders instead of somewhat impartial. I know that's true to some extent for all programs, but I saw one Texas guy compare their WR room now to the one Sark had at Alabama in 2019 (4 1st rounders and a 2nd rounder). The schedule sets up pretty well and they have a ton of talent. Losing the 2 RBs last week is a thing though, and I question how they will hold up over the course of a 12 game season against at minimum, a moderate increase in competition level. I think that game in College Station on Thanksgiving weekend could be pretty intense

Alabama- Putting aside the long-term implications of replacing Saban, this is a pretty talented team with a lot of guys who went 9-0 in the SEC last year. While losing Caleb Downs is a hit for sure, none of the other portal losses is really that concerning for this season. The portal hit the secondary pretty hard, and while not many of those guys had played significant minutes, they had at least been in college for a season or two and now Alabama is replacing them with freshmen, although they are talented. I heard on a podcast that even with all the portal losses, they gained more experience than they lost. The schedule is tough, but manageable if the expectation is a playoff berth. I think 9-3 gets in, and 10-2 certainly does.

Ole Miss- I am concerned about Kiffin's ability to win the big games against the big guys, but he's done a really good job with building an SEC roster. I think this season will be the first one where he has the guys and depth he needs on the lines of scrimmage. The schedule is very manageable

Missouri- Probably the second easiest schedule in the conference. I can barely tell you anyone on their team, but they are on a pretty good trajectory

Tennessee- All depends on Nico. If he is who they think he is, I think they are capable of winning a lot of games. They have to play both Alabama and Texas, but other than that there's not much, plus they get the Tide in Knoxville

Oklahoma- A lot has to go right for them to make the SECCG, but it's possible. The QB has to fix his turnover issues, or else it won't matter how good their defense is. It's a tough schedule and I wouldn't put any money on them, but it's possible

LSU- Similar to OU, a lot has to go right, but it did 2 seasons ago. A more manageable schedule than OU, but still pretty tough. Need the defense to make significant improvement to offset the loss of Daniels, Nabors, and Thomas. Their OL is a great place to start though
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Just fyi. Tennessee plays at Georgia late in year.
 
I was meeting with my LSU fan CPA this morning, and I didn't realize that LSU hasn't won an opener since 2019. Credit them for having legit opponents in week 1, but I would have thought they would have won at least one of those
 
gps_3 said:
I was meeting with my LSU fan CPA this morning, and I didn't realize that LSU hasn't won an opener since 2019. Credit them for having legit opponents in week 1, but I would have thought they would have won at least one of those
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Taking my fandom out, I think many in the current roster remember this fact you’re pointing out. Will Campbell has been pretty vocal this week…

The line sinking has me intrigued I can’t lie
 
twinkie13 said:
How bad is Vandy supposed to be? I hate to back them out the gate but anyone?
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I have to go the other way. I like Tech's coach, and he was really a bully last year. 6-1 ATS as favorites, covering by an average of 15 points, and winning each of the covers by at least 17 straight up. Two road favorite roles covered by 24 and 36 points. They were bad lines, but VPI obviously won by a lot more than 14 in each one. And Vandy is worse than the bottom of the ACC.
 
gps_3 said:
I was meeting with my LSU fan CPA this morning, and I didn't realize that LSU hasn't won an opener since 2019. Credit them for having legit opponents in week 1, but I would have thought they would have won at least one of those
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Was in attendance for that one. Was over before it started.
 
In regards to Bama’s expected demise. A lil ole vanilla fella named Lester Miles kept a less structured program vibrant with far less talent. Just saying. Saban definitely left his mark after all these years.
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
In regards to Bama’s expected demise. A lil ole vanilla fella named Lester Miles kept a less structured program vibrant with far less talent. Just saying. Saban definitely left his mark after all these years.
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The thing that I don't hear many people talk about is that the culture of the program remained intact through the transition. This wasn't a case of a program in decline with myriad issues and a coach that checked out. It also isn't a situation where the coach left for a better job and took a bunch of people with him. While last year wasn't a banner year for Alabama in terms of the product on the field, by all accounts the team chemistry, leadership and culture were as strong as they'd ever been. How else does that team do what they did? So I think De Boer has a better situation initially than Miles did, or Coker, or even Urban at Ohio St. It probably won't lead to an SEC Championship or CFP win at the rate Saban did, but I don't think we're going anywhere anytime soon
 
gps_3 said:
The thing that I don't hear many people talk about is that the culture of the program remained intact through the transition. This wasn't a case of a program in decline with myriad issues and a coach that checked out. It also isn't a situation where the coach left for a better job and took a bunch of people with him. While last year wasn't a banner year for Alabama in terms of the product on the field, by all accounts the team chemistry, leadership and culture were as strong as they'd ever been. How else does that team do what they did? So I think De Boer has a better situation initially than Miles did, or Coker, or even Urban at Ohio St. It probably won't lead to an SEC Championship or CFP win at the rate Saban did, but I don't think we're going anywhere anytime soon
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I concur. If anything all the doubt will just fuel the motivational fires. The players that left were likely addition by subtraction for the most part. And yes Saban left a more structured program with a talent loaded roster than any example I can think of to use as a comparison. Just cause we want Bama to suck doesnt mean they will. The only thing of a note in my opinion is a tougher schedule which applies to most lf if not all of the SEC.
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
I concur. If anything all the doubt will just fuel the motivational fires. The players that left were likely addition by subtraction for the most part. And yes Saban left a more structured program with a talent loaded roster than any example I can think of to use as a comparison. Just cause we want Bama to suck doesnt mean they will. The only thing of a note in my opinion is a tougher schedule which applies to most lf if not all of the SEC.
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It is a tough schedule, but I don't think it's noticeably more difficult than the last few seasons. But it's unlike any schedule De Boer has ever had to navigate so that could be a thing
 
It's too bad our newest "members" don't get to see those suffocating defenses every week.
Still better than anything the dumpsterfire called a defense, but when Ags/Tigers came in it was still boyz2men. Arky/USCe really got it.
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
In regards to Bama’s expected demise. A lil ole vanilla fella named Lester Miles kept a less structured program vibrant with far less talent. Just saying. Saban definitely left his mark after all these years.
Click to expand...
Yeah, but that guy (Miles) was a badass. He was a leader, and they followed him.
 
gps_3 said:
I was meeting with my LSU fan CPA this morning, and I didn't realize that LSU hasn't won an opener since 2019. Credit them for having legit opponents in week 1, but I would have thought they would have won at least one of those
Click to expand...
That's wild.
 
Starting to dive into the games for tomorrow, starting with the big one early in Atlanta. My initial gut reaction was to lay the points with UGA because I trust them to be ready for this game. But the more I think about it, I think I lean more to the under. I doubt we will hear anything definitive until just before kickoff, but I think there's a pretty good chance Etienne won't play due to his offseason DUI. Kirby may choose to levy the suspension for a different game even with the terrible optics, because he knows ultimately that people will forget that far sooner than they'd forget a loss. I admittedly don't know much about Clemson, so I'll have to rely on @M.W. to chime in, but if ETN is out, UGA is pretty thin at RB. The OL is a monster unit, but I think if Clemson can have success defending the run on early downs and get Beck into obvious passing downs, that is Clemson's path to victory. If Beck is allowed to play in rhythm and have advantageous down and distance, I don't think anyone can stop the UGA offense. You get him off schedule, he has not shown an ability to create and play well under pressure. In fact, last we saw him in a real game, he threw multiple turnover worthy balls under pressure against Alabama in this same building. Now I don't know how much success Clemson can have on the UGA defense. It's not the same caliber it was in '21 and '22, but they still have a lot of talented bodies to throw at you. Kirby likes to run the same 2 gap scheme he ran under Saban, but he employs far more zone on the back end rather than the pattern-match stuff Saban ran. Klubnik will have to be patient and take what the defense gives him and then when the OL blocks well when UGA brings pressure, hit them deep. Easier said than done. So all those words to say I lean under at this point. I have 48 available, I think I'll wait to see if I can get 49. Not as concerned if I end up taking 47
 
The UF vs Miami game is a pretty huge game for both programs. Maybe not really on the national scene, but a win for Miami really gives them the momentum to make a playoff push whereas a loss and it's different year, same story for Cristobal. Napier needs a big win this season like he needs oxygen. The back half of the schedule is brutal, so a big win here and a good start to the season can buy him some time and rope to keep his job. I don't know much about the roster composition of either team, other than they both have recruited decently well and have done well in the portal. I lean Gators because of the HFA and the Miami QB making his first start in an environment that he has never experienced. And I think I trust Napier more than Cristobal
 
aTm vs Notre Dame is another really intriguing game. My initial reaction any time the Irish play an SEC team is to take the SEC team. If Jimbo were still the HC, I wouldn't think about backing the Aggies. Despite the disappointing seasons the last few years, and the exodus of some top rated recruits, there's still plenty of talent in College Station, particularly on the DL. I'm not sure how the familiarity of Elko with Riley Leonard will matter, if at all, but I guess it can't hurt. ND has some key injuries, yes? I'm probably going to end up laying the points with the Aggies but have not committed yet
 
Fun fact, WKU QB TJ Finley is making his third career start against Alabama, at his 3rd different school. I'm about to go hit the golf course, so I'll try to get back tonight and post some thoughts on Alabama leading into the season. It's a big change obviously, so I don't feel quite as confident on how things will play out moving forward, which makes this one of the most anticipated seasons for me in a long time

Not sure there's much on the conference undercard worth talking about, but if I see anything interesting, I'll post it. Looking forward to LSU thoughts from our resident experts
 
Starting 0-1 is getting pretty old. Most of the kids involved were in diapers at best but this USC game has been 20 years in the making. The split national championship and all the hypothetical outcomes from a game that was never played are in the minds of most of us that have been around awhile. Coach Kelly really needs to be prepared for this one.

The hope is we pound the ball with explosive athletic running backs that you get tired of tackling and wear down a yet to be impressive USC defense over the past many years. LSU hasnt had the defenses of old for many years now as well so who knows which supposedly much improved defense actually shows up. Game feels close either way but as fans we really don’t want to come up short Week 1 yet again especially to the smug Trojans.

I’’m hearing Unders. im hearing take the points it will be close but of course the fan in me wants the Trojans to suffer to a breakout freak runningback that started the game late in life and is physically as scary as it may get. We shall see. Huge game 1 with tons of unknowns and lots to learn. Kelly will be judged a good bit based on how this turns out IMO. Can Caleb shock the world in week one? Will the Nuss Bus get rolling in Vegas? Can’t wait to find out.
 
Y'all don't forget to patronize friend of the program CrimsonK's website for SEC writeups plus some ACC:

brandonchicken.com

Week 1: SEC/ACC Thread

"When Christopher Columbus set sail from Spain in 1492, he was heading for Cathay, the land of the Great Khan." - The Mongols (David Morgan)
brandonchicken.com brandonchicken.com
 
General thoughts about Alabama by position group:

QB: What a difference a year makes. Huge question mark last season, team strength this season. I'm interested to see how Milroe has progressed from last year. His physical traits are obvious. Last year he was plagued by an OC who didn't know what to do with him/was trying to stick a round peg in a square hole and a Center with the snapping yips. Milroe definitely struggled when teams sat back and forced him to have to pick them apart and throw to his 2nd or third read. Milroe also seemed hesitant to use his legs, and when he did, he didn't show very good vision as a runner. The good news for this season is that he has an offensive coaching staff that can design an offense around his skill set, he's an extremely hard worker, and his teammates really like playing with him. I am sure that some of those issues from last year will show up periodically, like holding on to the ball too long, trying to hit the home run, and just in general not seeing the field really well, but I expect improvement. I think Milroe will benefit greatly from the helmet comms. I think we feel pretty good about Ty Simpson if something were to happen to Milroe

RB: Might be my favorite position group on the team. Justice Haynes and Jam Miller are both really good. Assuming health, this will likely be one of the top rooms in the conference. And there's some pretty good depth behind them. I know De Boer's Washington teams were known more for passing, but from what I'm reading from camp, this will be a heavy running offense

WR/TE: Biggest question mark on the offense. Sounds like we have 6-7 guys who are ready to contribute. Germie Bernard is the transfer from Washington who looks to be the #1 guy. He didn't get a whole lot of run last year playing behind 3 guys who are in the NFL now, but he has a great opportunity in front of him. Kobe Prentice has been a solid WR for Alabama for a couple of seasons now. It's kind of now or never for him to take the next step. Same for Kendrick Law. He's got athletic ability off the charts, but has yet to put it together. The 5* true freshman Ryan Williams has quickly established himself as one of the best players on the team, and he should be starting his senior year of high school right now. He will be a thing in short order, but I caution expecting too much right out of the gate. I'm a big fan of the TE room. We've got a pass catcher first guy that can block some in Cuevas, another Washington transfer. Then there are a couple of true hand in the dirt blocking TE's that can catch with Dippre and Ouzts. I'm not sure the group will ever be a focus of the passing game, but the potential is there

OL: Another group I'm pretty excited about. The interior might be the best in the conference. Proctor had his growing pains last season, but he was playing some pretty good football by the end of the season. The coaches last year were obsessed with having a huge OL last year, and I think we looked a little heavy and slow at times. They've all leaned out a bit and should be playing at a more ideal weight this season. RT is a pretty big ? and there's two highly rated guys battling it out, with both expected to play meaningful minutes to start the season. They might not be on the level of a UGA, but I think they're pretty close

DL: This is going to be a good unit. Not much star power, but a lot of guys who have played quality snaps in FBS football. One name who may end up being a star is former 5* aTm transfer LT Overton. He wasn't a great schematic fit for Jimbo's defense, and honestly wasn't a great fit for Saban's defense either when he transferred, but seems ideally suited for the scheme Wommack runs. The big shift is moving from Saban's 2 gap scheme to a 1 gap scheme. As a result, we will see this group attack the football more and be more disruptive. A byproduct of that will be more explosive runs given up, but I think we'll see an overall more effective defense against the zone read offenses we play more and more

OLB: After the luxury of Will Anderson, Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell the last 5 years, there is likely a drop off this season. We have some guys with lots of potential, but I'm skeptical we have anyone who can match the production of those 3 this season. Redshirt freshman Qua Russaw is the most likely to be the guy who can play at that level, but he's likely to need some more time developing before he makes that kind of impact. Along with the DL, this is the deepest group on defense

ILB: I'm not sure there will be any better starting duo than Lawson and Campbell. They are both studs. After them though, it gets a little dicey. Lawson in particular has battled injury, so it is likely we will find out about the depth at some point this season

DB: The starting 2 at safety will be pretty good. Malachi Moore is playing a little out of position, but his experience is definitely needed at deep safety. Keon Sabb at the other safety position doesn't have the ceiling of the guy he replaces (Caleb Downs), but I think he is capable of playing at a level pretty close to what we would have gotten out of Downs this season. Corner is the biggest question on the team and could be the position that keeps Alabama from competing for a title. Domani Jackson looks to have locked down one side. He's a former 5* that spent 2 years playing for the defensive abortion that is USC, so it remains to be seen if we can wipe the stink of that off him and have him realize his potential. The other CB will be either a true freshman or a transfer from Wake Forest. The depth at both safety and CB is largely 1st or second year guys that while talented, have played very little football at the college level

P/PK: The specialists should be a safety net as the new staff and team gets acclimated to life in the SEC. Both are legit candidates for offseason awards. Obviously for the PK who won the Groza (although I think Will Reichard should have won it)

Coaches: I've mentioned this on here several times, but I think the upgrade of assistant coaches cannot be overstated. Obviously Saban was the greatest and De Boer won't match him, but Saban struggled to hire quality assistants for the last several years. BOB and Rees were both relative disasters, and don't get me started on Pete Golding

As I type this, I know it sounds like a lot of sunshine pumping. And it is to a point. But this is a talented team. They are motivated and in some instances, they are getting better coaching than they've been getting. I took Alabama RSW over 9.5, but I think that is a good number. The schedule is tough, especially the road schedule. De Boer has won everywhere he's been, but this is a pretty steep jump in difficulty. That said, I'm not sure we could have asked for a better guy to follow Saban outside of Kirby. I'm really excited to see what unfolds over the next few weeks. This will be my last rah-rah Alabama post this year (at least outside the in-game thread). Y'all will witness me in real time learning about my squad for the first time. Should be entertaining at least
 
To piggyback on the RSW bet I mentioned above, here are the most losable games IMO for Alabama this year in descending order:

@Tennessee
@LSU
vs UGA
@OU
@Wisconsin
vs Mizzou
vs SCAR
vs AU
vs USF
@ Vandy
vs WKU
vs Mercer

It may seem weird to not have UGA #1, but we've been pretty nails at home over the years while away from home has been really sketchy the last few seasons.
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
Starting 0-1 is getting pretty old. Most of the kids involved were in diapers at best but this USC game has been 20 years in the making. The split national championship and all the hypothetical outcomes from a game that was never played are in the minds of most of us that have been around awhile. Coach Kelly really needs to be prepared for this one.

The hope is we pound the ball with explosive athletic running backs that you get tired of tackling and wear down a yet to be impressive USC defense over the past many years. LSU hasnt had the defenses of old for many years now as well so who knows which supposedly much improved defense actually shows up. Game feels close either way but as fans we really don’t want to come up short Week 1 yet again especially to the smug Trojans.

I’’m hearing Unders. im hearing take the points it will be close but of course the fan in me wants the Trojans to suffer to a breakout freak runningback that started the game late in life and is physically as scary as it may get. We shall see. Huge game 1 with tons of unknowns and lots to learn. Kelly will be judged a good bit based on how this turns out IMO. Can Caleb shock the world in week one? Will the Nuss Bus get rolling in Vegas? Can’t wait to find out.
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Well said. I’m betting LSU…..if the defense is worse than last year, I’ll pay. I think we both know what the problem was, and it’s gone.
 
As mentioned earlier, ETN not expected to play for UGA today. I'll be on the under
 
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