SEC Preseason Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
With media days coming up, and my annual reading of the preview mags, I'm ready to start talking some football. Like a lot of folks, it was hard for me to get into the season last year, but I'm pretty pumped for this year. This is going to be a difficult pre-season, at least for me, with all the transfers, opt-outs returning, etc, so please contribute on the teams/players you know most about. Fall camp starts in 3 weeks!
 
After my first run-through of the preview mags, I have a tentative PR order, but I haven't refined my values yet. But here's what I'm thinking:

Alabama
UGA
aTm
Florida
LSU
Ole Miss
Mizzou
Miss St
AU
Kentucky
Arkansas
Tennessee
SCAR
Vandy
 
Some team thoughts:

East:

UGA - feels like a "if not now, when" type of season. Talent not an issue. QB is settled (for now). WR and RB appear to lack star power, but a bunch of guys who can play. Inexperience in the secondary, but again there's talent. A couple of questionable takes in the transfer portal as far as locker room, but if it works out, UGA will be in the playoff discussion all year. Should coast to the East title

Florida - Think this will look strikingly similar to Mullen's Miss St teams. Talent level isn't where it should be for a program like Florida, but they will be well coached.

Mizzou - The default 3rd best team in the division. Though Drinkowitz did a nice job last year given what he was thrown in to, they have some nice pieces. Can't see them challenging the top 2 teams in the East, but every other game is winnable for sure.

Kentucky - interested to see if the McVay magic helps their offense. I would expect them to be solid but not spectacular, like always

Tennessee - dumpster fire. Don't think Heupel is a terrible hire, but seems pretty obvious the administration didn't have the appetite for a coaching search like their previous one, so they took the path of least resistance with the AD/HC hires. Can't remember how many transfers they had, but no way they'll be able to fill a full scholarship team this year, right?

SCAR - No idea what to think about the Beamer hire, but Muschamp had to go. Another team that just doesn't have typical SEC-level talent.

Vandy - I like the coaching hire, but I wish he would do something different so that they have a chance to be competitive. Maybe the lure of living in Nashville and the degree will be enough for him to get the talent level back close to what Franklin was able to get.


East is pretty poor. If UGA loses a division game, Kirby should be fired.
 
Totally agree on Georgia cruising to the East... Florida isn't as good and the rest is blah...

Took them to win it all back in January...

It's there, just hoping they develop enough on offense to give Bama a game in December.
 
West:

Alabama - I can expound on them later, but I think this team has as many unknowns as it has had in the past years. Offense will not be what it was last year. I think Bryce Young will be very good, but I'd expect it to take some time. Same for the WR. RB should be a strength, and OL should be pretty strong. I'm excited to see what Jahleel Billingsley does this year at TE. Defense should be the strength, particularly the front 7. The DL may not have any superstars (but keep an eye on Tim Smith), but there's about 10 guys who can contribute. LB corps should be the best in the country and one of the best in recent years. Will Anderson is a freak. Secondary could be a concern, but there is talent and experience there, even with the loss of Surtain. Surprisingly enough, Alabama is really good at PK, though punter may be an issue. Finally got one of those Australians to transfer in though

aTm - just like UGA, feels like an "if not now, when" season. Based on recruiting, this seems like the year to get Bama. Should be in the mix for a NY6 bowl even if they don't win the division

LSU - I don't have much faith in the leadership, but there's no denying the talent level. Feels like they could become a more talented and more volatile version of a typical AU team. Give O credit for scrapping the things that clearly didn't work last year.

Ole Miss - Should be a ton of fun to watch. Still think they're the kind of team that will both win and lose games they shouldn't.

Miss St - Should be more competitive than last year. Leach has gotten rid of everyone that didn't buy in, and now they'll get a full preseason to master his offense.

AU - I've been wrong about this team countless times, but I think they are in real trouble. They were already talent deficient, and Harsin hasn't upgraded in the short time he's been there. I'm sure there will be some improvements on things like fundamentals where Gus wasn't as strong, but if Harsin thinks running a basic offense with inferior talent will work because of better fundamentals, he won't last long. Nix should be better if he wasn't completely broken by Malzahn's lack of development. But since I've picked them to be bad, they'll probably be undefeated with full voodoo running when Alabama goes there in November

Arkansas - can't get much of a read, other than they'll play hard and be a tough out for most everyone they play

Overall, the conference seems down a few notches, especially after the top 3 teams. None of the new coaches seem like home runs, but they can't all fail, right?
 
I think the West is more open than most think. I can’t buy TAMU hype ever until they actually do something. Auburn is who knows like you said. The coach is a feast or famine type hire. The recruiting has been awful. Nice guy I’m sure but he may be in over his head. The Missy schools will be fun and do the things they do.
I’ve done the LSU thing on some other post, but cliff Notes: the O line is a huge concern especially with the recent LSU special weed boot of a starter. LBs are a concern but everywhere else should be solid on D. We have a real QB race in BR as well. Many think Max is gonna start.
 
twinkie13 said:
I think the West is more open than most think. I can’t buy TAMU hype ever until they actually do something. Auburn is who knows like you said. The coach is a feast or famine type hire. The recruiting has been awful. Nice guy I’m sure but he may be in over his head. The Missy schools will be fun and do the things they do.
I’ve done the LSU thing on some other post, but cliff Notes: the O line is a huge concern especially with the recent LSU special weed boot of a starter. LBs are a concern but everywhere else should be solid on D. We have a real QB race in BR as well. Many think Max is gonna start.
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I don't think the West is "open" in the sense that there's only 2-3 teams that have a legit chance to win it, but I agree that it's not a situation where Alabama is going to just steamroll everyone. I don't know what to think about Bill O'Brien as OC. I think more than anything, Saban trusts that he will run a tight ship on offense so that Saban can focus more on running the program.
 
Vandy - I like the coaching hire, but I wish he would do something different so that they have a chance to be competitive. Maybe the lure of living in Nashville and the degree will be enough for him to get the talent level back close to what Franklin was able to get.
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Talent seems like it is at an all-time low for Vandy, in my memory. The teams that Franklin won with, those teams had some gems...Chris Marve, Casey Hayward, Andre Hall, Kenny Ladler, Walker May on D and Jordan Mathews, Chris Boyd, Jonathan Krause, Zac Stacy, Wesley Tate, Wesley Johnson on O...those guys I'm pretty sure were all inherited. Bobby Johson could land some kids and Franklin knew how to coach. If Franklin actually got the talent level up, then it makes it all that much worse for Vandy fans to look back on the Derek Mason error. I was actually at Derek Mason's first ever game home vs Temple. They go from back-to-back 9 win years with bowl victories and drop the home opener vs Temple by 30!
 
gps_3 said:
I don't think the West is "open" in the sense that there's only 2-3 teams that have a legit chance to win it, but I agree that it's not a situation where Alabama is going to just steamroll everyone. I don't know what to think about Bill O'Brien as OC. I think more than anything, Saban trusts that he will run a tight ship on offense so that Saban can focus more on running the program.
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That’s what I essentially mean. I really don’t think Bama is a lock as usual
 
I like your PR order except for Missouri....hard to see them above 3-4 of those teams you have listed below them. I mean MSU -26.5 over La Tech and Missouri -13 over CMU....you have got to love one of those games based on your rankings.

Regardless, there are no real wrong answers at this time of year and if you're stepping out on Missou as being underrated going into the year, best of luck to you.
 
horses said:
I like your PR order except for Missouri....hard to see them above 3-4 of those teams you have listed below them. I mean MSU -26.5 over La Tech and Missouri -13 over CMU....you have got to love one of those games based on your rankings.

Regardless, there are no real wrong answers at this time of year and if you're stepping out on Missou as being underrated going into the year, best of luck to you.
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That’s fair. To be honest, teams 5-10 will likely be pretty bunched number-wise, so I wouldn’t argue too much on any order
 
My Ole Miss thoughts:

Corral is good. I don’t really know what else to say here. He had 1 bad game last year (Arkansas), and the offensive staff was just as responsible for it as he was. (LSU was in a downpour with a skeleton crew on offense) I don’t think we’ll see an Arkansas type clunker again. That’s not to say that he won’t still force some throws and take chances. That’s just part of his game. For the first time in his career he’s had the same OC for 2 years in a row. Should be fun if nothing else.

The OL should be fine. Utah transfer, Orlando Umana, was huge for depth, and it should allow some guys to shuffle around to more natural positions. There are some dudes in the 2 deep but they’re young, and young guys can get overwhelmed by DL talent in the SEC. It’s also worth nothing that there’s a new, young OL coach. It’s a middle of the pack unit.

For the first time in a decade (longer?) Ole Miss doesn’t have a dude at WR. There are some pieces and some guys have flashed but we’ve been waiting on some nuts to drop for a few years, and it hasn’t happened. I think Kiffin and Lebby are more than capable of using what they’ve got and scheming them open, but it’s going to be by committee. Plumlee is working in the slot FWIW so I fully expect Kiffin/Lebby to run some silly shit through him at some point. I think the transfer portal may still be an option here.

Ole Miss might have the best RB room in the SEC. Ealy, who I think will get touches out of the slot, and Conner are known commodities. Henry Parrish is really good, and there’s a RS Freshman named Kentrel Bullock who reminds a lot of people of Deuce McAlister.

I’ll be brief on the defense: I don’t expect them to be terrible. They aren’t going to be good by any stretch, but they shouldn’t be embarrassingly bad. JUCO and blue chip additions on the DL and transfers on the back end will contribute heavily. Depth remains a major concern.

Best case: 10-2

Worst case: 6-6

My guess: 8-4
 
Auburn's 9/25 game vs Georgia State could be tricky! Week after trip to Penn State and week before trip to LSU. It is homecoming if that matters, some say distraction, some say it helps focus on playing well.

But Georgia State is pretty loaded. Just 6-4 last year although 3 of their 4 loses were by combined 13 points. 99.1% of their yards are back, 137 OL starts return, a 10 game starting QB from last year (33ppg, 424ypg). The D needs to show improvement but they have 8 starters back (3 All SBC players + 2 honorable mention) and they have trimmed the ppg and ypg allowed each of the last 3 years.
 
s--k said:
Auburn's 9/25 game vs Georgia State could be tricky! Week after trip to Penn State and week before trip to LSU. It is homecoming if that matters, some say distraction, some say it helps focus on playing well.

But Georgia State is pretty loaded. Just 6-4 last year although 3 of their 4 loses were by combined 13 points. 99.1% of their yards are back, 137 OL starts return, a 10 game starting QB from last year (33ppg, 424ypg). The D needs to show improvement but they have 8 starters back (3 All SBC players + 2 honorable mention) and they have trimmed the ppg and ypg allowed each of the last 3 years.
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Great look here.

Obvious classic 'samich' game.
 
A few thoughts:

I believe this was a real QB battle. You had to like Max chances at getting the ball for UCLA off last year momentum and I’m pretty sure he “had the team” as QB talk goes. Gonna have to be careful with him as an injury would be devastating likely
 
Yeah I'm not sure that LSU isn't better off with this making Orgeron's decision for him. Hate it for the kid but I think Johnson is the better QB. I think my thoughts on Brennan have been on the record here for a while.
 
Grovehard said:
Yeah I'm not sure that LSU isn't better off with this making Orgeron's decision for him. Hate it for the kid but I think Johnson is the better QB. I think my thoughts on Brennan have been on the record here for a while.
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Pretty sure he will transfer. Max is a sophomore and Walker Howard is coming this year
 
I don’t think Vols are going to be nearly as bad as you mention above. They had a lot of transfers but only a handful were impactful at all. They did a good job on the transfer market in their own right at filling holes. I expect offense will be at least fun to watch again.
 
“We got to watch about an hour of #Vols practice. Yes it was day one, but initial thoughts…. FAST. Not only high tempo with the offense but the way they transition between every single play… No walking anywhere on the field, coaches are constantly coaching and energy is high.
Madison Blevins”

might be a good over team. Especially early on
 
For me it's Ole Miss and aTm battling for 2nd in the West, UGA should glide to the East title

I know your future on UGA Reno and it's solid, winner of that SEC ship will be in the final four and taking UGA to make it is basically a one game ML with the built in possibility of two SEC teams
 
KJ said:
For me it's Ole Miss and aTm battling for 2nd in the West, UGA should glide to the East title

I know your future on UGA Reno and it's solid, winner of that SEC ship will be in the final four and taking UGA to make it is basically a one game ML with the built in possibility of two SEC teams
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I can promise you one of those things won’t happen for sure
 
KJ said:
What part?

I have aTm and Ole Miss ahead of LSU...you won't change my mind on that twink

So I assume you're against UGA?
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You can have Ole Miss ahead of LSU but they aren’t finishing 2nd in the West
 
I'm starting to warm up to the idea of Kentucky sneaking into the top 2 in the East. Maybe by beating one of UGA/Florida and holding the right tie-breakers
 
I haven't read much on fall camp about any team outside Alabama, and there's not much to report from Tuscaloosa that isn't already widely known and assumed.

Bryce Young seems to be the unquestioned QB1

Defense is ahead of the offense at this point, but at Saturday's scrimmage, 3 starting OL sat out with minor injuries

Henry To'o To'o is making an immediate impact

WR group is showing some promise, but is a drop off from the last 3-4 years. Jameson Williams is locking in a spot in the starting rotation

Will Anderson is a bad man.

Maybe biggest surprise is that Trey Sanders looks to be fully recovered from his car wreck back in November
 
KJ said:
If it's 2 vs 5 how do you go?

Obv they're likely 3/4 but looking for the opinion outside the block
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Not sure I understand the question, but I think Ole Miss is more likely to be 5th in the West than 2nd. I give LSU a better chance to finish 2nd than Ole Miss, but as you said, they are most likely the 3rd and 4th teams.
 
gps_3 said:
Not sure I understand the question, but I think Ole Miss is more likely to be 5th in the West than 2nd. I give LSU a better chance to finish 2nd than Ole Miss, but as you said, they are most likely the 3rd and 4th teams.
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That was my line, I prefer OM and TAM over le Tigre for 2nd if it comes to it
 
played Clemson -3 already; much like the talk here, I think that UGA can overcome an early L and still win the East. Just too much injuries around that team for week 1...Clemson D still pretty solid.

Pickens, Washington, Smith, Gilbert are out...Jackson, Burton and Blaylock have injuries too and are ?
 
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