SEC Preseason Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
What's up guys and gals? I know everyone has been dying to discuss all things SEC, so I decided to start a thread. I typically don't pay much attention to football until practice starts, but I have been going through some of the preseason mags over the last few weeks. Feel free to post and chime in on anything SEC related, especially if it can help us beat the book. Look forward to another year of discussing everyone's favorite and least polarizing conference
 
Media Days predictions and All-SEC teams:

Western Division
1) Alabama (253)
2) LSU (5)
3) Texas A&M
4) Auburn (1)
5) Mississippi State (1)
6) Ole Miss
7) Arkansas
Eastern Division
1) Georgia (233)
2) Florida (21)
3) Missouri (3)
4) South Carolina (1)
5) Tennessee (1)
6) Kentucky (1)
7) Vanderbilt


2019 PRESEASON MEDIA DAYS ALL-SEC TEAM
OFFENSE
First Team
QB: Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
RB: D'Andre Swift, Georgia
RB: Najee Harris, Alabama
WR: Jerry Jeudy, Alabama
WR: Henry Ruggs III, Alabama
TE: Albert Okwuegbunam, Missouri
OL: Andrew Thomas, Georgia
OL: Alex Leatherwood, Alabama
OL: Prince Tega Wanogho, Auburn
OL: Jedrick Wills, Alabama
C: Lloyd Cushenberry, LSU
Second Team
QB: Jake Fromm, Georgia
RB: Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Vanderbilt
RB: Lamical Perine, Florida
WR: Kalija Lipscomb, Vanderbilt
WR: Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
TE: Jared Pinkney, Vanderbilt
OL: Solomon Kindley, Georgia
OL: Damien Lewis, LSU
OL: Tre'Vour Wallace-Simms, Missouri
OL: Isaiah Wilson, Georgia
C: Darryl Williams, Mississippi State
Third Team
QB: Joe Burrow, LSU
RB: Larry Rountree, Missouri
RB: Boobie Whitlow, Auburn
WR: Justin Jefferson, LSU
WR: Bryan Edwards, South Carolina
TE: *Miller Forristall, Alabama
TE: *Charlie Woerner, Georgia
OL: Deonte Brown, Alabama
OL: Ben Cleveland, Georgia
OL: Logan Stenberg, Kentucky
OL: Matt Womack, Alabama
C: Drake Jackson, Kentucky


DEFENSE
First Team
DL: Raekwon Davis, Alabama
DL: Derrick Brown, Auburn
DL: Rashard Lawrence, LSU
DL: Jabari Zuniga, Florida

LB: Dylan Moses, Alabama
LB: Anfernee Jennings, Alabama
LB: Erroll Thompson, Mississippi State
DB: Grant Delpit, LSU
DB: J.R. Reed, Georgia
DB: Trevon Diggs, Alabama
DB: C.J. Henderson, Florida
Second Team
DL: Nick Coe, Auburn
DL: Justin Madubuike, Texas A&M
DL: Marlon Davidson, Auburn
DL: Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina
LB: Cale Garrett, Missouri
LB: De'Jon Harris, Arkansas
LB: David Reese II, Florida
DB: Patrick Surtain II, Alabama
DB: Xavier McKinney, Alabama
DB: Kristian Fulton, LSU
DB: Cameron Dantzler, Mississippi State
Third Team
DL: LaBryan Ray, Alabama
DL: McTelvin Agim, Arkansas
DL: Chauncey Rivers, Mississippi State
DL: Tyler Clark, Georgia
LB: Terrell Lewis, Alabama
LB: Jacob Phillips, LSU
LB: Kash Daniel, Kentucky
DB: DeMarkus Acy, Missouri
DB: Shyheim Carter, Alabama
DB: Richard LeCounte, Georgia
DB: Daniel Thomas, Auburn
SPECIALISTS
First Team
P: Braden Mann, Texas A&M
PK: Rodrigo Blankenship, Georgia
RS: Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
AP: Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
Second Team
P: Tommy Townsend, Florida
PK: Anders Carlson, Auburn
RS: Marquez Callaway, Tennessee
AP: Kadarius Toney, Florida
Third Team
P: Arryn Siposs, Auburn
PK: Evan McPherson, Florida

RS: Jashaun Corbin, Texas A&M
AP: Lynn Bowden, Kentucky
 
www.espn.com

The complete SEC West college football season preview

Can Alabama weather another staff shakeup? Can LSU take the next step? Can Auburn contend with a freshman QB? We dig into these questions and more in our SEC West team previews.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

www.espn.com

The complete SEC East college football season preview

Can Georgia get past Alabama? Is Florida ready to challenge the Dawgs? And what did South Carolina do to deserve that schedule? We dig into these questions and more in our SEC East team previews.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 
gps_3 said:
www.espn.com

The complete SEC West college football season preview

Can Alabama weather another staff shakeup? Can LSU take the next step? Can Auburn contend with a freshman QB? We dig into these questions and more in our SEC West team previews.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

www.espn.com

The complete SEC East college football season preview

Can Georgia get past Alabama? Is Florida ready to challenge the Dawgs? And what did South Carolina do to deserve that schedule? We dig into these questions and more in our SEC East team previews.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
Click to expand...
I don't like his take on Florida. Those last four games (in which Florida put up a lot of points) were not as significant as he makes them out to be. South Carolina had a bad defense to begin with and was ravaged by injuries by that point. Florida State was having its worst season since 1975 and had beaten them five straight times. The situation is ready made for an explosion of points. And Michigan's defense -- "Don Brown's top-10 Michigan defense " -- was disinterested and missing at least one starter who sat out.
 
M.W. said:
I don't like his take on Florida. Those last four games (in which Florida put up a lot of points) were not as significant as he makes them out to be. South Carolina had a bad defense to begin with and was ravaged by injuries by that point. Florida State was having its worst season since 1975 and had beaten them five straight times. The situation is ready made for an explosion of points. And Michigan's defense -- "Don Brown's top-10 Michigan defense " -- was disinterested and missing at least one starter who sat out.
Click to expand...

To see whether a guy is offering a fair take on Florida, I go straight to his breakdown of the Michigan game. Then calling Pierce efficient when he barely carried the ball and then mostly against garbage opponents. I like Florida as a Jags fan but its a disgustingly biased take. Nothing „came together“ for Florida‘s offense. It just stopped being challenged. I love how he pays lip service to the o-line problem, he places it in a way (disconnected and at the bottom of the paper) that implies it won‘t affect the running or passing game and he just waves it away, which is seriously wishful or just neglectful thinking.

Here‘s a superior take on Florida and hopefully an added venue for discussing Florida:

Florida RSW Total Article

Florida Gators football: how to bet the over/under regular season win total Oddsmakers set the over/under on Florida's regular season win total at nine. I recommend taking the "under." Team Preview Offense One potential source of optimism for Florida's upcoming season is quarterback Feleipe...
cappingthegame.com cappingthegame.com
 
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M.W. said:
I don't like his take on Florida. Those last four games (in which Florida put up a lot of points) were not as significant as he makes them out to be. South Carolina had a bad defense to begin with and was ravaged by injuries by that point. Florida State was having its worst season since 1975 and had beaten them five straight times. The situation is ready made for an explosion of points. And Michigan's defense -- "Don Brown's top-10 Michigan defense " -- was disinterested and missing at least one starter who sat out.
Click to expand...
Totally agree here. To add on, Mich was missing a few pieces and had no interest in the game. You just cannot use bowl games to handicap the next season in all honesty unless say a freshman gets extended time and has a coming out party.
 
Glad to see some questioning the love for Florida. I am not near as bullish on them as most seem to be pre-season. I'm not saying they aren't the 3rd or 4th best SEC team necessarily, but I'm not sure I am ready to put them in the top 10 nationally just yet
 
Working on my pre-season PR for the conference, might be the biggest disparity between the top and the rest of the conference I've ever seen. Kind of looks that way nationally too. The more they try to manufacture parity, the less they get it seems
 
pressitup said:
UGA loses to the Ags, to F their season.
Click to expand...
How's that mess up their season? Different divisions. As long as they win the East the season comes down to the Ship game. And, if they go undefeated beforehand then they can lose in ship and advance anyways perhaps.
 
B.A.R. said:
How's that mess up their season? Different divisions. As long as they win the East the season comes down to the Ship game. And, if they go undefeated beforehand then they can lose in ship and advance anyways perhaps.
Click to expand...
I think the playoff would be their goal. Who from the west can they beat to win the SECship?
Bama? LSU? not sure they can.
Ags are 5-0 away vs. the east since moving to the SEC. Granted a couple of those are USCe.
Ags could be beat up by then. UGA doesn't travel any farther than Vandy all season. Must be nice.
 
I feel like aTm and AU could be pretty good teams, but have mediocre records because of their schedule. Even if they beat one of the big names, the cumulative effect could be dropping one or two they shouldn't
 
gps_3 said:
Working on my pre-season PR for the conference, might be the biggest disparity between the top and the rest of the conference I've ever seen. Kind of looks that way nationally too. The more they try to manufacture parity, the less they get it seems
Click to expand...
It's communication technology. The best players want to play with and for the best, and everyone knows the pecking prder and where everyone else is going.
 
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M.W. said:
It's communication technology. The best players want to play with and for the best, and everyone knows the pecking prder and where everyone else is going.
Click to expand...


Fewer and fewer recruits are scared of the depth chart these days. They know they will play if they are the best player, even if the 2nd best player is still really good. We'll know in the next couple of years how much the new transfer rules impact parity as a whole.
 
gps_3 said:
I feel like aTm and AU could be pretty good teams, but have mediocre records because of their schedule. Even if they beat one of the big names, the cumulative effect could be dropping one or two they shouldn't
Click to expand...
I like both teams a lot, especially Barn. I'll have no problem with a 3 loss Barn team staying high in the polls 'this time'.. it most likely will be deserved.
 
B.A.R. said:
I like both teams a lot, especially Barn. I'll have no problem with a 3 loss Barn team staying high in the polls 'this time'.. it most likely will be deserved.
Click to expand...

AU has some of the key ingredients for a great team: experience on OL (though how good they are is debatable), elite DL, experienced DBs. QB is a major concern, sounding like a true freshman will likely win the job. They are pretty pedestrian at RB and WR, though that hasn't mattered much in Gus' offense in the past, he schemes well enough to get guys in the right place. They have tons of speed at WR. For the first time that I can remember, they weren't exceptional at PK last year, though he was a TF replacing his older bro that was a multiple AA player, so maybe he was pressing. I think AU could be significantly better than last season, but go 7-5 again.
 
O/U win totals for SEC. C&P from an article about a month old, so they may have changed, but it's as good a jumping off point as any:

SEC
  • Alabama: 11 (Over -130, Under +110)
  • Georgia: 11 (Over +130, Under -154)
  • Florida: 9 (Over +102, Under -120)
  • LSU: 9 (Over -108, Under -108)
  • Mississippi State: 8.5 (Over -165, Under +140)
  • Auburn: 8 (Over +130, Under -156)
  • Texas A&M: 7.5 (Over -114, Under -102)
  • Missouri: 6.5 (Over -184, Under +154)
  • Tennessee: 6.5 (Over -184, Under +154)
  • Arkansas: 6 (Over +132, Under -156)
  • Kentucky: 6 (Over -108, Under -108)
  • South Carolina: 6 (Over -130, Under +112)
  • Ole Miss: 5 (Over -114, Under -102)
  • Vanderbilt: 5 (Over -136, Under +116)
 
Here are my initial thoughts after running through the schedule. I broke it down into likely Wins, likely Losses, and toss-ups, though I shifted the goal posts on the definition of toss up early on

Alabama:

W: Duke, NMST, SCAR, S Miss, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Arkansas, Miss St, WCU

L: none

Toss up: @ aTm, LSU, @ AU



Toss up is relative here, since Alabama will be heavy favorites in all 3. I think the game at College Station is the most losable game for Alabama this season



Arkansas:

W: Portland St, San Jose St

L: aTm, Kentucky, AU, Alabama, Miss St, LSU, Mizzou

T: Ole Miss, Colorado St, WKU



Auburn:

W: Tulane, Kent St, Ole Miss, Samford, Arkansas

L: Alabama, UGA,

T: Oregon, aTm, LSU, Miss St, Florida,



I know I have AU as a toss up for Alabama, but I think when looking at season win totals, you have to cap that game as a loss for AU. If they go into that game with a good chance to win, you’ve likely already hit the over anyway



LSU:

W: Ga Southern, NW St, Vandy, Utah St, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Miss St,

L: Alabama

T: Texas, Florida, AU, aTm



LSU seems to always have a clunker at home against a G5 team. The opener against Ga Southern seems like it could be a tad tricky, as does the Utah St game



Ole Miss:

W: SE Louisiana, NMST

L: Alabama, Mizzou, aTm, AU, LSU, Miss St

T: Memphis, Arkansas, Cal, Vandy



Miss St:

W: Louisiana, S Miss, Kansas St, Kentucky, Arkansas, Abilene Christian, Ole Miss

L: LSU, aTm, Alabama

T: AU, Tennessee,



Texas A&M:

W: Texas St, Lamar, Arkansas, Ole Miss, UTSA, Miss St, SCAR

L: Clemson, Alabama, UGA

T: LSU, AU



I do think aTm wins one of those 3 games against the top 3 teams in the country



Florida:

W: Tenn-Martin, Kentucky, Towson, Vandy

L: LSU

T: Miami, Tenn, AU, SCAR, UGA, Mizzou, FSU



My early prediction is that Florida loses to Tenn and beats UGA. Not sure that’s how I’d cap it though. I think Florida has a pretty wide variance from floor to ceiling, everything from 6-6 to 11-1 is a plausible season outcome IMO



Georgia:

W: Vandy, Murray St, Ark St, Notre Dame, Tenn, SCAR, Kentucky, Mizzou, AU, aTm, Ga Tech

L: none

T: Florida



Kentucky:

W: EMU, Arkansas, Tenn-Martin, Louisville

L: Florida, UGA, Miss St, Mizzou

T: Toledo, SCAR, Tennessee, Vandy



Missouri:

W: Wyoming, WVU, SE Missouri St, Troy, Ole Miss, Vandy, UK, Arkansas

L: UGA

T: SCAR, Florida, Tennessee



South Carolina:

W: Charleston-Southern, Vandy

L: Alabama, UGA, aTm, Clemson

T: UNC, Mizzou, Florida, UK, Tenn, App St



Tennessee:

W: Ga St, BYU, Chattanooga, Vandy

L: UGA, Alabama

T: Florida, Miss St, SCAR, UAB, Kentucky, Missouri



Vanderbilt:

W: UNLV, East Tenn St

L: UGA, LSU, Mizzou, SCAR, Florida, Kentucky, Tenn

T: Purdue, N Illinois, Ole Miss,
 
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Auburn is 85-1 to win the SEC at Fanduel. Returning five 23 year olds on the Oline, experience all over on defense, and home games against UGA and Bama. The price here is just wrong - further evidenced by the fact that they’re 80-1 to win the CFP, somehow worse odds than winning the SEC. I’m throwing a tiny bit on them just as a long shot.

Will post all my futures eventually in one thread, know I’ve been putting in random comments everywhere without posting actual amounts etc.
 
raems said:
Auburn is 85-1 to win the SEC at Fanduel. Returning five 23 year olds on the Oline, experience all over on defense, and home games against UGA and Bama. The price here is just wrong - further evidenced by the fact that they’re 80-1 to win the CFP, somehow worse odds than winning the SEC. I’m throwing a tiny bit on them just as a long shot.

Will post all my futures eventually in one thread, know I’ve been putting in random comments everywhere without posting actual amounts etc.
Click to expand...
You're fine. That number is ridiculous. I have a small future on them overall and am insanely jealous of that #.
 
For AU to win the SEC, they likely have to go 4-1 against LSU, Alabama, Florida and UGA x2, in addition to winning all their other games. They can still make playoff without winning conference, but means they likely need to go 11-1 with only loss to Alabama who beats UGA and they both get in. Not saying it can't happen, but I understand why it's long odds
 
It's all about the lines in the SEC(and everywhere, but).
I'm not discounting FLA in the east. I'm not gonna hand it to UGA.
The west holds serve against the east pretty well.
UGA having Aubbie/Ags back to back.
Both UGA and Gators getting a bye before the showdown in Gainesville.

So, glad to not be working and get see an entire season after working weekends.
Bring me football...............
 
The fact that Florida‘s offense is receiving hype is an absolute joke. The rush attack loses half of its primary duo. Franks is nothing when he doesn‘t have all day to step into his throws so the o-line rebuild will hurt both the running game and his passing ability. His receivers are a pile of mediocrity ranging between lack of athleticism (VJ) and lack of technical polish (Grimes, Toney) Look at how sorely unproductive the passing game was against the better defenses/pass rushes faced. The offense will weigh Florida down
 
pressitup said:
well that totally changes my mind
Click to expand...

Florida RSW Total Article

Florida Gators football: how to bet the over/under regular season win total Oddsmakers set the over/under on Florida's regular season win total at nine. I recommend taking the "under." Team Preview Offense One potential source of optimism for Florida's upcoming season is quarterback Feleipe...
cappingthegame.com cappingthegame.com

If you‘re up for a thorough take on Florida hehe :)
 
Agree with earlier post that Georgia is a good bet to win the title. Honestly think they beat Bama twice.

LSU has just an incredible looking defense and will be the best in the country. If they can somehow find a passing game they will be a threat.

Auburn is sneaky, sneaky good. Watched the spring game and both freshmen QB impressive, especially Bo Nix.

A&M lost a great RB - don't think you plug and move on from him - and 5 of their best 6 players in the front 7. They play SIX! games against teams in the preseason S&P Top 10. Everyone thinks the Longhorns are the team in the state that is overhyped and will disappoint, but this is your team right here. 7-5.

Tennessee very underrated to me. They'll hang tough and make a bowl at 7-5 but be 9-3 ATS or something.

Arkansas, Vandy, and Kentucky are going to be hard-pressed to win 4 conference games combined.
 
Alabama's OLB depth took a hit this week when former 5* (I think) Eyobi Anoma left the team. He's had a hard time staying out of trouble and has entered the transfer portal at least once. Word is that he was dismissed from the school, not just the football team.
 
M.W. said:
Interesting. I like Notre Dame's chances against Georgia a lot more than Florida's. Auburn's, too.
Click to expand...

I know they played them close a couple of years ago in South Bend, but wasn't that Fromm's first ever start? As a true freshman? I'll pay to see Notre Dame beat a team the caliber of UGA. I wouldn't argue with the AU game being a toss-up
 
Alabama and Wisconsin agree to a home and home in 24/25. I'm genuinely curious when is the last time Bama played a true non-conference road game? This is a treat for both fan bases.
 
EFC1878 said:
Alabama and Wisconsin agree to a home and home in 24/25. I'm genuinely curious when is the last time Bama played a true non-conference road game? This is a treat for both fan bases.
Click to expand...

Off the top of my head, it was at Penn St in 2011. Think everyone is tired of the neutral site NFL stadium games. So far we've scheduled home and homes with Texas, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Wisconsin and West Virginia in the next 15 years
 
gps_3 said:
I know they played them close a couple of years ago in South Bend, but wasn't that Fromm's first ever start? As a true freshman? I'll pay to see Notre Dame beat a team the caliber of UGA. I wouldn't argue with the AU game being a toss-up
Click to expand...
Last year. Notre Dame had the D-line to do it. This year? To be determined.
 
M.W. said:
Last year. Notre Dame had the D-line to do it. This year? To be determined.
Click to expand...

Eh. Clemson made them look pretty pedestrian. UGA is in the same league talent-wise as Clemson, Notre Dame is not
 
B.A.R. said:
Bama had a home n home with MSU but ended up cancelling it. We'll see if this Wisconsin one comes to fruition.
Click to expand...


I think our new AD has a different perspective on scheduling than the last couple. Previously it was all about maximizing revenue every year, which is why we always played neutral site games. I guess we are giving up a big payday by playing away in hopes of getting a much larger one when these "name" teams come to Tuscaloosa? Whatever the reason, I'm glad
 
gps_3 said:
I think our new AD has a different perspective on scheduling than the last couple. Previously it was all about maximizing revenue every year, which is why we always played neutral site games. I guess we are giving up a big payday by playing away in hopes of getting a much larger one when these "name" teams come to Tuscaloosa? Whatever the reason, I'm glad
Click to expand...
Yeah, it's nice for the fans/students to get home games that have some intrigue. Obviously the every other year Barn, LSU, Tamu etc home games are nice but you definitely need to spice it up a bit.
 
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