Some Alabama thoughts:
This year’s offense has the potential to be the best of my lifetime, assuming Tua is the guy at QB. I do think Hurts can be successful, especially with OC going from Daboll to Locksley. But Tua can distribute the ball better to what I think is our best collection of WRs under Saban. There’s no Julio or Amari, maybe not even a Ridley, but there’s virtually no drop off from our top 3. Throw in freshman Jaylen Waddle, who has shown that he may be a special player, and we have a group that can make teams pay for doubling. Likewise, the OL is likely the best it’s been since 2012. RB is well taken care of with D Harris and Najee Harris. A healthy Josh Jacobs will also add some wrinkles as a pass catcher out of the backfield. This offense is good enough to dominate most of the defenses on our schedule, but if Jalen continues to be indecisive, not anticipatory, quick to tuck and run, and generally inaccurate, the better defenses will continue to dare him to throw, and the offense will likely look like it did against LSU, Miss St, AU, Clemson, and 1h against UGA last year. Tua really is the key here, and I do believe he will be the main guy no matter who takes the first snap tonight
Odd to say it, but defense is biggest question mark. Injuries and draft/graduation has taken its toll on defense more than anywhere else. Losing Terrell Lewis was a huge blow. There are rumors that his recovery is going very well and that he could be ready by potential playoff run, maybe sooner. But he was a true game changer as a pass rusher. Chris Allen was also a big loss, though he’s mostly just potentially awesome at this point. DL will be fine, if not a little less depth than the last few years. LB is also pretty thin, though last year’s ridiculous injury situation did give guys plenty of experience. The secondary is the biggest question mark by far. This will be the vulnerable spot, at least in the first half of the season. The players are talented no doubt, but there’s very little meaningful experience returning, and Saban’s schemes are notoriously complicated. I think teams like Ole Miss and Mizzou will have some success throwing the ball. I’d expect by the end of the season for them to playing at a fairly high level
Special teams, lose a great punter and the PK. Don’t know much about either of the replacements, though I expect they are capable. Remains to be seen if we’ve coached the consistency out of the PK like we usually do. Coverage units should all be filled with blue chip recruits that haven’t cracked the lineup elsewhere yet. Returns haven’t been anything special in a few years, though I’m excited to see Waddle returning punts once he gets his chance
Both coordinators are new, so I’d expect there to be somewhat of a learning curve, especially on defense where Tosh has never called a game before.
As for tonight’s game, I’m having a hard time figuring it out. I think Alabama wins for sure, but until I know the QB situation, I don’t know what to predict. I think we’ll see a lot from the RBs. I expect Damien Harris to be our offensive MVP regardless of QB. Any props on him over on yards would be a solid bet IMO. If Tua plays most of the meaningful snaps, I think we score 45+. We could still get there with Jalen, but I wouldn’t feel as confident. Petrine has given us fits in the past, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he attacks the secondary with some success. How many of those end up in points will be the story for them. Ultimately, I feel like this game is something like 48-17
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