SEC Fall Camp/Week 1 Discussion Thread

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Can't believe I let BAR beat me to the punch on conference discussion threads. Every year it seems I get started on this stuff later and later. Anyway, would like to start the convo on week 1 right before fall camp opens around the conference.

Week 1:

Vandy -4.5 vs MTSU

Auburn -3 vs Washington (Atlanta)

Kentucky -17 vs C Michigan

Ole Miss +1.5 vs Texas Tech (Houston)

South Carolina -29.5 vs Coastal Carolina

Tennessee +9.5 vs WVU (Charlotte)

Alabama -25,5 vs Louisville (Orlando)

LSU +3 vs Miami (Arlington)

Miss St vs SF Austin

Arkansas vs E Illinois

UGA vs Austin Peay

Florida vs Charleston Southern

Mizzou vs UT Martin


Some fairly interesting games in week 1. AU vs Washington is clearly the most intriguing, since it does have legitimate playoff implications. Not sure yet how I feel about that one. AU defense probably going to take a step back on defense, though the offense should be pretty good if they can find a serviceable RB. Interested in MTSU at that number or higher. Wonder what the total for Ole Miss game going to be? High 70's? Kind of like S Carolina at first glance. No way I back Tennessee at this point. Louisville may be better than most are giving them credit for, but I question if their defense can make enough stops to keep it within the number. It's going to be sweltering, and UL's defensive depth will be pushed to the limit one would think. I want to like LSU here, but not sure I can convince myself.

Will be checking in periodically leading up to the season. Please add any news and notes from practices if you got any. I really only follow Alabama closely now, so anything of value I hear, I will share if I can. Looking forward to the discussions this season. Best of luck to everyone
 
cubsker said:
i'd like it for someone to give the rundown on the jorja D.
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I'm far from an expert on UGA, but they are replacing experience at all 3 levels, but with possibly better talent. Can't fully replace Roquan Smith obviously. Probably going to be just fine on defense, but possibly down a few notches from last season. I'm interested in how UGA comes back after being so close to a championship. Does it make them push even harder to achieve this year? Or do they struggle to maintain such a high level? Kirby has seen what it takes to maintain that elite level, but can he replicate it and will the players buy in? Should be easier after a championship game loss than win
 
I've got a weird feeling about the Ole Miss/Tech total. Kingsbury seemed to suggest that he was going to lean on the run more this year, and Tech's D might actually be solid. On the other side, Ole Miss' D will probably be awful again. What's the best way to protect a bad D? Luke has some Cutcliffe in him, and I think he's inclined to play ball control. The problem is that he's got an air raid OC with Freeze's offensive personnel. I'm not calling for a 13-10 final, but I wouldn't be eager to jump on something crazy high.
 
Grovehard said:
I've got a weird feeling about the Ole Miss/Tech total. Kingsbury seemed to suggest that he was going to lean on the run more this year, and Tech's D might actually be solid. On the other side, Ole Miss' D will probably be awful again. What's the best way to protect a bad D? Luke has some Cutcliffe in him, and I think he's inclined to play ball control. The problem is that he's got an air raid OC with Freeze's offensive personnel. I'm not calling for a 13-10 final, but I wouldn't be eager to jump on something crazy high.
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Interesting... :shake:
 
Grovehard said:
I've got a weird feeling about the Ole Miss/Tech total. Kingsbury seemed to suggest that he was going to lean on the run more this year, and Tech's D might actually be solid. On the other side, Ole Miss' D will probably be awful again. What's the best way to protect a bad D? Luke has some Cutcliffe in him, and I think he's inclined to play ball control. The problem is that he's got an air raid OC with Freeze's offensive personnel. I'm not calling for a 13-10 final, but I wouldn't be eager to jump on something crazy high.
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My lean is to an under, especially if the total is mid to high 70's. I think Kingsbury has a lot riding on this season, and beating an SEC team will certainly help. I think Ole Miss has fantastic WRs, but maybe they take a few games to get going? Or maybe a half? 1H under might get a long look from me
 
I know this is the early week one thread but would be interested in seeing some final standings projections @gps_3 and others... as far as W/L for the regular season.
 
I'm going through the schedules now, will come up with a power ranking and record prediction if I have time. Maybe a range of wins/losses rather than a hard number. Some thoughts while looking at schedules:

Alabama - Probably easiest schedule they've had in years. A drop off in the "name" OOC game, 2 Sun Belt teams and The Citadel. Trade Vandy for Mizzou as rotating East opponent. Very manageable conference road schedule w/ Ole Miss, Tennessee, Ark and LSU. Always have a tough time in BR, but couldn't ask for much more here. Get a breather with the SoCon challenge between November visits from Miss St and AU

AU - Pretty much opposite of Alabama. Have 3 preseason top 10 teams on the schedule, all away from home. Washington in the opener is the most interesting game on the opening weekend for me, and probably most. The rest of the OOC isn't difficult, though I wonder if their game against Liberty could be a little tougher than expected. Not calling for a loss, but possibly a cover. AU's November will be tough with aTM at home, then away games against UGA and Alabama, with that Liberty game in between.

Miss St - Pretty standard schedule with good sequencing of tough games and road games. Trip to Kansas St in week 2 could be tough. Toughest stretch is likely Florida, AU, BYE, @LSU, aTm (off a bye)

aTm - They'll know where they are in week 2 when Clemson visits. Play 3 straight road games: @South Carolina, BYE, @ Miss St, @ AU against 3 tough opponents

LSU - Tough schedule. Get Alabama and UGA at home, but play Miami (neutral) and AU away. @ Florida for 2nd year in a row, then play UGA, Miss St and Alabama

Arkansas - Nothing really stands out, other than they are playing @ Colorado St for some reason. Finish with 2 road games. Trade South Carolina for Vanderbilt out of the east, so should be easier than last season

Ole Miss - Again, nothing really stands out here. Schedule is back loaded with their tougher games, so could see a decent start and a poor finish

UGA - About as manageable a schedule as you could ask for. Being in the East helps. Going to LSU will be a challenge for sure, but it's after home games against Tenn and Vandy, and before a bye.

Florida - Another well put together schedule in order to maximize success. Mullen going back to Miss St should make for a good storyline

South Carolina - Another blah schedule, though 3 of their last 4 are on the road.

Mizzou - @ Purdue in week 3 is a fairly interesting game to me. 3 game stretch of UGA, BYE, @ South Carolina, @ Alabama is tough. Play Memphis right after, could be a let down/beat up

Kentucky - No real thoughts other than a tough 3 week stretch with Miss St, S Carolina, @ aTm in consecutive weeks.

Tennessee - Brutal schedule, especially for a 1st year coach. WVU in opening game. Starting week 4, go: Florida, @ UGA, Bye, @ AU, Alabama, @ S Carolina. Ouch

Vanderbilt - Interesting trip to Notre Dame in week 3. Not because it will be a good game, but glad to see this kind of scheduling


Overall thoughts after looking at schedules is that the conference will earn it's soft schedule stereotype this season. There are a few exceptions (LSU, AU, aTm, Vandy), at least in terms of playing a tough OOC game that's not a geographic rival. My initial feeling is that there are going to be 3-4 9-10+ win teams, a couple in 8 win territory, and several that aren't bowl eligible
 
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My very early PR and record prediction. Note, these records may not be mathematically possible, it's just my first thought after looking at each individual schedule

1. Alabama 12-0 - I hate predicting an undefeated season because it so rarely happens. I won't be surprised with a loss, I would be w/ 2. But I can't find the loss at this moment
2. UGA 11-1 - I think one of the road games gets them
3. AU 9-3
4. South Carolina 9-3
5. Miss St 9-3 - I considered swapping SC and MSU, but for now I'll go with the more certain QB health and coach
6. aTm 8-4
7. LSU 7-5
8. Florida 7-5
9. Missouri 8-4
10. Kentucky 5-7
11. Arkansas 6-6
12. Ole Miss 5-7
13. Tennessee 4-8
14. Vanderbilt 4-8
 
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I ranked them like this with no consideration for schedule. Maybe I'm wrong at the top, but we'll see. Have to give SoCar another look, maybe.

Jorja
Bama
Piss St
Aub
Ags
Fla
LSU
So Car
Piss
Misery
UK
Arky
Vandy
Tenn
 
An additional note on LSU’s schedule. They face State off a bye the week after Georgia, and are at Arkansas off a bye the week after Alabama. That may be interesting as it relates to RSW. The Arkansas game is a must have, and while State is a toss up it may be needed for the over depending on how Miami and Florida have played out by that point.
 
M.O.T said:
An additional note on LSU’s schedule. They face State off a bye the week after Georgia, and are at Arkansas off a bye the week after Alabama. That may be interesting as it relates to RSW. The Arkansas game is a must have, and while State is a toss up it may be needed for the over depending on how Miami and Florida have played out by that point.
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:shake:
 
6 or 7 feels right for Ole Miss.

Likely Ls - Bama, Auburn, South Carolina, A&M
Likely Ws - Southern Illinois, Kent State, ULM, Vandy
Tossups - Texas Tech, LSU, Arkansas, State
 
Notes from UofL Media Day (a thread): @dezfitz8 on @AlabamaFTBL’s secondary: “Every receiver in our receiver core can honestly beat every one of their DB’s in 1on1 coverage
More from @dezfitz8: “When we watch film and other players play Bama, it’s not like Bama’s beating them. It’s like they’re beating themselves” because of the mystique of playing the Crimson Tide
 
cubsker said:
I ranked them like this with no consideration for schedule. Maybe I'm wrong at the top, but we'll see. Have to give SoCar another look, maybe.

Jorja
Bama
Piss St
Aub
Ags
Fla
LSU
So Car
Piss
Misery
UK
Arky
Vandy
Tenn
Click to expand...

I’m biased, but would be absolutely shocked if TN doesn’t beat both Vandy and Kentucky this year. Much better talent, but actually have a coach now.
 
My quick look at the conference

Alabama - Probably the best Alabama team on paper in awhile. Hard to find holes other than Saban puckering up in close games but after what he did in the natty, maybe his balls have dropped.

Georgia - Solid everywhere. Culture seems right. Might have to win with offense more than normal but defense won't stink.

Mississippi State - Team was very odd last year. I think they averaged roughly a quarter more yards per play than their opponents but outgained opponents by over 1400 yards. So they obviously were the nuts on third down. That doesn't always translate year over year. I like the pieces and experience and the QB. Some questions with coaching changes but this team looks pretty good.

Auburn - same old, same old I think. Generally a hard team for me to figure out. Basically tend to think you go against them when they face defenses and take them when they don't. I don't have a really good read on them.

Florida - I could be reaching but I think the defense will be there again and think that Mullen can make good with his schemes with these athletes to get more out of the offense.

TAMU - Look balanced to me. Team showed a lot of heart through adversity last year. Should get much better QB play. I prefer Sumlin to Jimbo but this team is a tough out this year

LSU - This is another team I don't have a good read on. As usual, I suspect that QB is their Achilles heal and defense and a strong run game is their backbone. For all their issues last year, they still performed generally well and I like Aranda. Unless a QB emerges, I just don't think they can do enough on offense to finish games when it matters. Probably the lowest I have been on LSU in awhile, so maybe I am too low on them.

South Carolina - I think they are better than last years version but last year was all smoke and mirrors. That team was outgained by almost 400 yards. Incredibly opportunistic and they will fight for the full 60. Have some decent weapons but their yards per play was nothing special. There are a few occasions where a team is lucky multiple years in a row but I have to think the cocks are on the short end of the luck stick this year ... or to put differently, assuming they are not half as lucky as last year, their win total is going to drop despite being a better team this year. Offense is too limited .... I think they were one of those teams that didn't even have a 500 yard game last year. Take away the stud, and make someone else beat you. I guess the QB can make the occasional play. From a betting standpoint it depends on how they are viewed by everyone else, cause while I don't think they deserve the respect their final record and bowl win over Michigan would imply, I am not sure they will actually get that respect either. Probably a really good under team in general.

I tired of typing .... UK and Arkansas should be about even..

Vols - Lots of talent but how do you get outgained by almost 1500 yards with all of that? Sure they have had a lot of low character culture both in their coaching staffs and their players the last decade but if they get coached up right this year, they will be better. I am considering them for week 1. If they get blown out by that west virginia team on a neutral field then I guess we should expect another down year from them.

Vandy - you have to make grades.
 
Ryno14 said:
I’m biased, but would be absolutely shocked if TN doesn’t beat both Vandy and Kentucky this year. Much better talent, but actually have a coach now.
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Appreciate any and all thoughts. I'm not sold on their talent level. I would think they're more talented than both the teams you mentioned, but not by a lot, and I think this first year is going to be a struggle for them. Do you think they got the right coach? I lean more towards no myself.
 
cubsker said:
Appreciate any and all thoughts. I'm not sold on their talent level. I would think they're more talented than both the teams you mentioned, but not by a lot, and I think this first year is going to be a struggle for them. Do you think they got the right coach? I lean more towards no myself.
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So far I think so. I think one of the biggest questions with him was going to be recruiting, but that's gone extremely well. From what I'm hearing, the locker room really is on board with him too with him actually letting them play football. Always early to tell until we get some real games, but I like the direction. We shall see, but really think they eek out 6-7 wins this year and win a bowl.
 
RetroVK said:
LSU - This is another team I don't have a good read on. As usual, I suspect that QB is their Achilles heal and defense and a strong run game is their backbone. For all their issues last year, they still performed generally well and I like Aranda. Unless a QB emerges, I just don't think they can do enough on offense to finish games when it matters. Probably the lowest I have been on LSU in awhile, so maybe I am too low on them
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Most of the LSU news so far has been in the suspension thread, so at some point this weekend I’ll post a camp summary in this thread. Burrow is going to be solid but he may not have a chance behind the current OL, that’s easily the biggest concern at the moment and the running game isn’t going to be what it usually is. The defense is extremely good, so that’s part of the problem. As a fan I’m hopeful the defense is going to be elite and that the offense isn’t that bad. But as a capper I know I can’t assume that yet and need to see what the defense does against other teams, but I’m fairly confident it will at least be the best we’ve had since 2011/2012.
 
Best since 2011/12 is pretty good. Thing about camp is that if the offense stinks, it can make the defense look that much better.
 
Ryno14 said:
So far I think so. I think one of the biggest questions with him was going to be recruiting, but that's gone extremely well. From what I'm hearing, the locker room really is on board with him too with him actually letting them play football. Always early to tell until we get some real games, but I like the direction. We shall see, but really think they eek out 6-7 wins this year and win a bowl.
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5 wins top.
ETSU, UTEP, Char, UK, Vandy.
And Honestly those last 2 could go either way.
Mizzu at home is possible.
Injuries are gonna play a big part this season getting adjusted to a whole new way of playing football. And with those last 3 teams they are either gonna be paper thin or getting players back form injury.

The end of Sept and all of October are going to be BRUTAL. Show me ANY team with a tougher 5 gm stretch in ALL of college ball tougher than what the Vols have to play.
They might be able to score 5 TDs in 5 gms.
 
ProV1Colt said:
5 wins top.
ETSU, UTEP, Char, UK, Vandy.
And Honestly those last 2 could go either way.
Mizzu at home is possible.
Injuries are gonna play a big part this season getting adjusted to a whole new way of playing football. And with those last 3 teams they are either gonna be paper thin or getting players back form injury.

The end of Sept and all of October are going to be BRUTAL. Show me ANY team with a tougher 5 gm stretch in ALL of college ball tougher than what the Vols have to play.
They might be able to score 5 TDs in 5 gms.
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I've yet to look at them, for a reason... But damn that is BRUTAL. The one that's at home is stinking Bama. Wow.
 
RetroVK said:
Best since 2011/12 is pretty good. Thing about camp is that if the offense stinks, it can make the defense look that much better.
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No doubt, and the offense definitely stinks right now so I’m a little hesitant to say the defense is good enough to completely mask it. But the confidence comes from how the pieces fit together. When Aranda arrived they transitioned from a 4-3, so a lot of his OLBs were converted ends. He had some good pass rushers but they weren’t versatile. Now the buck position is still primarily a rusher but they have enough versatility to where they can’t automatically be identified as a blitzer. Chaisson, the best pas rusher on the team, had a pick 20 yards downfield yesterday. The F position on the opposite side is now stocked with true linebacker body types, but they each can be effective blitzers. White, Phillips, and their backups form the best unit of ILBS we’ve had since I can’t remember when.

With all of that said, coupled with the way Aranda can break down protections, offenses are going to have a really tough time knowing where the third, fourth, or fifth rushers are coming from on pass plays. If they can hold up against the run they’re going to be very difficult to deal with.
 
ProV1Colt said:
5 wins top.
ETSU, UTEP, Char, UK, Vandy.
And Honestly those last 2 could go either way.
Mizzu at home is possible.
Injuries are gonna play a big part this season getting adjusted to a whole new way of playing football. And with those last 3 teams they are either gonna be paper thin or getting players back form injury.

The end of Sept and all of October are going to be BRUTAL. Show me ANY team with a tougher 5 gm stretch in ALL of college ball tougher than what the Vols have to play.
They might be able to score 5 TDs in 5 gms.
Click to expand...

I think they win those 5 plus either Florida or Missouri to get a 6th win. We shall see.
 
I gotta think we see a nasty LSU D

but like he said...our Ofeense, how can you know

but Aranda...year 3
 
M.O.T said:
No doubt, and the offense definitely stinks right now so I’m a little hesitant to say the defense is good enough to completely mask it. But the confidence comes from how the pieces fit together. When Aranda arrived they transitioned from a 4-3, so a lot of his OLBs were converted ends. He had some good pass rushers but they weren’t versatile. Now the buck position is still primarily a rusher but they have enough versatility to where they can’t automatically be identified as a blitzer. Chaisson, the best pas rusher on the team, had a pick 20 yards downfield yesterday. The F position on the opposite side is now stocked with true linebacker body types, but they each can be effective blitzers. White, Phillips, and their backups form the best unit of ILBS we’ve had since I can’t remember when.

With all of that said, coupled with the way Aranda can break down protections, offenses are going to have a really tough time knowing where the third, fourth, or fifth rushers are coming from on pass plays. If they can hold up against the run they’re going to be very difficult to deal with.
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It should be really nasty...especially if what we are hearing on Phillips lookin like he is supposed to and all these LBs we been waiting for to shine....I personally can't wait

I hope Curry is as good as I think he can be and the offense is imaginative....Burrow is better than anything we have had in years

I dont care what anyone says
 
What makes ya'll think the defense is gonna be so great? Aren't you going to counting on a lot of true frosh?

Oregon has also said the OL is great and this is the best WR unit LSU has ever had just a few weeks ago lol.
 
touchdowncapper said:
What makes ya'll think the defense is gonna be so great? Aren't you going to counting on a lot of true frosh?

Oregon has also said the OL is great and this is the best WR unit LSU has ever had just a few weeks ago lol.
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After betting on FSU after they said that what Lamar did to them they took personally and were absolutely determined to stop him, I swore to never base bets on this kind of talk lol. Same thing in bball with Montez Morris against WVU a while back lol
 
touchdowncapper said:
What makes ya'll think the defense is gonna be so great? Aren't you going to counting on a lot of true frosh?
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Definitely not. Of the top 20 or 22 who will be in the rotation, most are third year players, juniors and redshirt sophomores, with a few true sophomores and seniors sprinkled in. There’s only one true freshman in the mix, and he’s a likely starter at corner. I could see a DL or ILB maybe playing their way into some snaps later in the season, but none are being counted on.
 
For the record, this is how I see them stacking up.

1. Bama
2. UGA
3. Aub

4. Miss St
5. LSU
6. UF

7. Mizzou
8. TAMU
9. USC

10. Miss
11. UK
12. Tenn
13. Ark

14. Vandy
 
M.O.T said:
Definitely not. Of the top 20 or 22 who will be in the rotation, most are third year players, juniors and redshirt sophomores, with a few true sophomores and seniors sprinkled in. There’s only one true freshman in the mix, and he’s a likely starter at corner. I could see a DL or ILB maybe playing their way into some snaps later in the season, but none are being counted on.
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One of my favorite leans opening weekend is LSU + against Miami, so glad to hear this.
 
Miami D made Benkert Pitt‘s qb and then even Hornibrook look good at end of last season lol. Totally fizzled out
 
M.W. said:
For the record, this is how I see them stacking up.

1. Bama
2. UGA
3. Aub

4. Miss St
5. LSU
6. UF

7. Mizzou
8. TAMU
9. USC

10. Miss
11. UK
12. Tenn
13. Ark

14. Vandy
Click to expand...


Pretty close to Bill Connelly's PR:

Alabama
UGA
AU

Miss St
LSU

SCAR
aTm
Mizzou
Ole Miss
Florida

Arky
Kentucky
Tenn
Vandy
 
One thing I picked up out of Connelly's SCAR preview is how poor they are as a favorite and how good they were as a dog. Went 7-1 ATS and 5-3 SU as underdogs last season. 1-4 ATS as a favorite and 4-1 SU. Seemed to be a trend w/ Muschamp at UF too. Not sure what to do with this, but probably keeps me off them in week 1. Think it's a noon eastern kickoff too. I could see them being lethargic against Coastal. Though Deebo could easily return a long one or two
 
gps_3 said:
My lean is to an under, especially if the total is mid to high 70's. I think Kingsbury has a lot riding on this season, and beating an SEC team will certainly help. I think Ole Miss has fantastic WRs, but maybe they take a few games to get going? Or maybe a half? 1H under might get a long look from me
Click to expand...

I disagree with the Ole Miss offense taking a bit to get going. They mostly all played together last year, the OL basically returns everyone and the RB will be better. The 3 starting WR and TE and QB were together all summer working on getting in sync. If anything, think you have to assume the offense is going to be hot right out the gate.

The TTU offense on the other hand that doesn't seem to have a great QB and loses tons of WR could be slow to start.
 
gps_3 said:
Pretty close to Bill Connelly's PR:

Alabama
UGA
AU

Miss St
LSU

SCAR
aTm
Mizzou
Ole Miss
Florida

Arky
Kentucky
Tenn
Vandy
Click to expand...
I know -- I'm not really going out on a limb with these rankings. I really only have a couple of comments -- as someone whose team has been playing Alabama, Auburn, and USC each year since Muschamp took over, I just see too much of a gap between USC and the top tier (in our games with these opponents) to put them 4th (as you have done) or 6th (as BC has). Y'all could be right, but I put the Cocks lower. And I seem to be one of the few people who recalls that Auburn actually beat Alabama and Georgia last year, although that's not enough for me to move them up from third.
 
M.W. said:
I know -- I'm not really going out on a limb with these rankings. I really only have a couple of comments -- as someone whose team has been playing Alabama, Auburn, and USC each year since Muschamp took over, I just see too much of a gap between USC and the top tier (in our games with these opponents) to put them 4th (as you have done) or 6th (as BC has). Y'all could be right, but I put the Cocks lower. And I seem to be one of the few people who recalls that Auburn actually beat Alabama and Georgia last year, although that's not enough for me to move them up from third.
Click to expand...

I'm going to revisit my PR before the season starts. The more I read about SC, the more I think I lean toward you and S&P+. I had forgotten how they won some big games despite huge disparities in yards, etc. Even with that, I think they still might be the clear #2 team in the East. And trust me, I still remember that AU beat UGA and Alabama last year. They won't let us forget it. AU is such a bipolar team and program, it's hard to know what you're going to get year to year or game to game. They are a momentum team all the way through, both within a game and a season. Both good and bad. I think they are the clear #3 in the SEC, and plenty capable of beating anyone, but their schedule will keep them from winning the conference.
 
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