SEC Championship Bama v. UGA

It opened at Geo -3 on my site, and I laid -130 to buy it down to 2.5 for a LARGE bet, for me anyway.

I just saw this morning that they are now at -6.5, so I laid -125 and took Bama +7 for a quarter of my original bet.

Still think Geo will cover this but just trying to see if I get lucky.
 
Despite UGA having a better defense than AU, I don’t think it’s possible for them to have a better result than the Tigers did for most of the game. I don’t think UGA’s offense will have much success either. I think it’s likely this is a one score game, and it’s trending to be low scoring
 
gps_3 said:
Despite UGA having a better defense than AU, I don’t think it’s possible for them to have a better result than the Tigers did for most of the game. I don’t think UGA’s offense will have much success either. I think it’s likely this is a one score game, and it’s trending to be low scoring
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That’s my thought as well. Georgia’s leading receiver is their TE. You have to factor in that they’ve been up big most of the year so it makes sense that the passing yards are down but the running game is 6th in the SEC.

Another qualifier to the rushing yards is their average starting field position. As of two weeks ago they were ranked #3 with averaging starting on their own 34.1. The two ahead were Cincy (34.7) and Iowa (35.2). So a slightly shorter field on average to get yards.

All that to just say I’m not sure there will be a ton of offensive fireworks unless Bennett goes ham and Bill O’Brien finds some creativity to hide the OLine deficiencies
 
I think it‘s really hard to gauge how Bama will look against Georgia because Bama is constantly a heavy favorite. This is a team that, when favored so heavily, has repeatedly shown concentration lapses. The Florida game is a paradigmatic example.

But when Bama has been more motivated and on-point, like when it responded to a barrage of media criticism after the Florida game by blowing out Ole Miss and to its loss at A and M by decimating Miss State on the road, it looked like a team that maybe…maybe…. could give Georgia a real challenge?
 
I don't know what paradigmatic means.

I will say that Florida should not have been viewed as just some team "we" are big favorites against therefore "we" don't need to be fully dialed in and explaining away concentration lapses in big favorite roles.

I think you are saying that if Alabama is a big favorite and everyone is expecting them to win easy, then they don't perform as well. But do the players actually think that way? That is either poor coaching or weak players or some combination... it was Florida, not like it was Missouri or something. When they played September 18th vs a Florida team that won the East the season before, that Bama had a difficult game vs in the SEC Title game against, why would Bama have had concentration lapses in the Florida game?
 
Alabama could beat UGA by 2 scores or lose by 4 TDs. A maddeningly inconsistent team. I do think the loss of Williams yesterday had a huge impact on the offense. AU couldn’t cover him. The refs were letting aub interfere with him, but eventually he would’ve broken free. After he was ejected, aub didn’t respect the deep ball at all. It took us way too long to adjust, a common refrain this season when we’ve lost key contributors in a game.

Jamo and Bryce’s legs are the X factors for Alabama’s offense against UGA. I don’t expect B Rob to have an effective game against UGA even if healthy. He’s more of a battering ram back, and he’s running behind a line that can’t batter anyone, much less UGA. Really feeling the loss of Jase McClellan now.

It’s an odd spot for Alabama as not only an underdog, but one that very few people are giving a chance. It may help us, but I don’t think UGA will be taking us lightly by any stretch, even though this game is essentially meaningless for them as far as the CFP is concerned. We’ve gutted them too many times, so I expect their best effort. Should be a classic. Too bad I’m going to miss it lol
 
s--k said:
I don't know what paradigmatic means.

I will say that Florida should not have been viewed as just some team "we" are big favorites against therefore "we" don't need to be fully dialed in and explaining away concentration lapses in big favorite roles.

I think you are saying that if Alabama is a big favorite and everyone is expecting them to win easy, then they don't perform as well. But do the players actually think that way? That is either poor coaching or weak players or some combination... it was Florida, not like it was Missouri or something. When they played September 18th vs a Florida team that won the East the season before, that Bama had a difficult game vs in the SEC Title game against, why would Bama have had concentration lapses in the Florida game?
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Bama managed a DD lead twice then nearly lost it twice. Saban explained the phenomenon as an inability to sustain intensity for an entire 60 minutes. Seems to me like he is talking about concentration. I take him at his word there because his explanation is consistent with the development in scoring.

And this certainly wouldn‘t be the first time I remember Saban-led Bama taking its foot off the pedal. Obviously the resulting score lines create a negative impression of the team that is representative of its mentality when up a lot and not of its ability.
 
I’m sure most of you don’t watch Alabama as much or closely as I do, but if you did, you’d notice that Saban is treating this team far differently than he has any other. He knows how immature we are, the lack of experience, and frankly the lack of talent on the OL outside Evan Neal. I think he fought it for the first half of the season, and he hated the way the team reacted, especially coming off of last years team which may have been the most bought-in team he’s had. But he seems to have embraced the challenge, and last night he looked as genuinely happy after a game as I’ve seen him. If it weren’t for Bryce Young and especially Will Anderson, we’d be a 3-4 loss team right now. He knows we’re playing with house money. Maybe that makes us dangerous, maybe it just means we’ve overachieved to this point and reality is waiting for us in Atlanta
 
I won’t bother with a separate thread for this game. My PR makes UGA -6.5
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Bama managed a DD lead twice then nearly lost it twice. Saban explained the phenomenon as an inability to sustain intensity for an entire 60 minutes. Seems to me like he is talking about concentration. I take him at his word there because his explanation is consistent with the development in scoring.

And this certainly wouldn‘t be the first time I remember Saban-led Bama taking its foot off the pedal. Obviously the resulting score lines create a negative impression of the team that is representative of its mentality when up a lot and not of its ability.
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That is a good explanation. Although whether or not they focus better or maintain or lose concentration based on if they are heavily favored and expected to win easily vs maybe being an underdog I'm not sure that is a connection that can be made. Playing at Florida should've been one of the marquee games on their schedule. It isn't or wasn't the be-all, end-all that an SEC Title game is, true.

As gps_3 indicates, the issues are likely deeper than just some wavering mental state.
 
s--k said:
That is a good explanation. Although whether or not they focus better or maintain or lose concentration based on if they are heavily favored and expected to win easily vs maybe being an underdog I'm not sure that is a connection that can be made. Playing at Florida should've been one of the marquee games on their schedule. It isn't or wasn't the be-all, end-all that an SEC Title game is, true.

As gps_3 indicates, the issues are likely deeper than just some wavering mental state.
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I think it’s as simple as most of our major contributors this year acting like the success from last year should automatically translate to this years team without any effort
 
gps_3 said:
I’m sure most of you don’t watch Alabama as much or closely as I do, but if you did, you’d notice that Saban is treating this team far differently than he has any other. He knows how immature we are, the lack of experience, and frankly the lack of talent on the OL outside Evan Neal. I think he fought it for the first half of the season, and he hated the way the team reacted, especially coming off of last years team which may have been the most bought-in team he’s had. But he seems to have embraced the challenge, and last night he looked as genuinely happy after a game as I’ve seen him. If it weren’t for Bryce Young and especially Will Anderson, we’d be a 3-4 loss team right now. He knows we’re playing with house money. Maybe that makes us dangerous, maybe it just means we’ve overachieved to this point and reality is waiting for us in Atlanta
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Agreed. During the post game interview on the field he said something to the effect that he told the team at halftime to enjoy playing the game and not worry about the result. I thought that was something you wouldn’t have heard in years past.
 
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gps_3 said:
I’m sure most of you don’t watch Alabama as much or closely as I do, but if you did, you’d notice that Saban is treating this team far differently than he has any other. He knows how immature we are, the lack of experience, and frankly the lack of talent on the OL outside Evan Neal. I think he fought it for the first half of the season, and he hated the way the team reacted, especially coming off of last years team which may have been the most bought-in team he’s had. But he seems to have embraced the challenge, and last night he looked as genuinely happy after a game as I’ve seen him. If it weren’t for Bryce Young and especially Will Anderson, we’d be a 3-4 loss team right now. He knows we’re playing with house money. Maybe that makes us dangerous, maybe it just means we’ve overachieved to this point and reality is waiting for us in Atlanta
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I thought this was interesting last week. Felt then he was speaking up for these players

 
gps_3 said:
I’m sure most of you don’t watch Alabama as much or closely as I do, but if you did, you’d notice that Saban is treating this team far differently than he has any other. He knows how immature we are, the lack of experience, and frankly the lack of talent on the OL outside Evan Neal. I think he fought it for the first half of the season, and he hated the way the team reacted, especially coming off of last years team which may have been the most bought-in team he’s had. But he seems to have embraced the challenge, and last night he looked as genuinely happy after a game as I’ve seen him. If it weren’t for Bryce Young and especially Will Anderson, we’d be a 3-4 loss team right now. He knows we’re playing with house money. Maybe that makes us dangerous, maybe it just means we’ve overachieved to this point and reality is waiting for us in Atlanta
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Followed Saban since Michigan state days as I went to school there when he was coach.

Never seen him like that after a regular season game, ever. Looked like he just nutted or something.
 
SIGO said:
Agreed. During the post game interview on the field he said something to the effect that he told the team at halftime to enjoy playing the game and not worry about the result. I thought that was something you wouldn’t have heard in years past.
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He’s always preached focusing on the process instead of the result, but not usually in such a gentle manner. Like the way I talk to my youngest child vs my oldest one
 
Frank Costanza said:
SIAP....When was the last time Bama was a dog? Does it go back 10 years+?
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Took the +6 and figured it might move to 6.5 but rather get it than a move the other way. Figure losing money on Bama as a dog certainly wouldn't be one of my clumsiest losses over the years, or this week even.
 
Frank Costanza said:
SIAP....When was the last time Bama was a dog? Does it go back 10 years+?
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2015 at UGA. Alabama won 38-10. Before that, it was the 2009 SEC Champ game against Florida, also a comfortable Alabama win. Not saying laying the points is necessarily a bad bet, I just can't understand the folks I've seen saying they're making it a larger than normal bet or biggest bet of the year. Literally nobody will be that surprised if Alabama wins SU, much less covers. There are definitely better games to place a max bet on IMO
 
Frank Costanza said:
SIAP....When was the last time Bama was a dog? Does it go back 10 years+?
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This week breaks a 92-game streak where the Tide was favorite. longest in history. And they also hold the second longest streak in history when they went 72 straight as a favorite.

Must be a nice break for the staff to get to coach and motivate as a dog for a change
 
gps_3 said:
2015 at UGA. Alabama won 38-10. Before that, it was the 2009 SEC Champ game against Florida, also a comfortable Alabama win. Not saying laying the points is necessarily a bad bet, I just can't understand the folks I've seen saying they're making it a larger than normal bet or biggest bet of the year. Literally nobody will be that surprised if Alabama wins SU, much less covers. There are definitely better games to place a max bet on IMO
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It's insane to make a max bet on this game. No one (media) is given Alabama a chance and Georgia has all the pressure on its shoulders. Those two dynamics, alone, should make one just sit this game out and watch only.
 
Yeah. Calling this a lock is pretty dumb. However, GA is the much better team and will win. Cover, that's a different story.

It's Kirby's year.
 
Frank Costanza said:
It's insane to make a max bet on this game. No one (media) is given Alabama a chance and Georgia has all the pressure on its shoulders. Those two dynamics, alone, should make one just sit this game out and watch only.
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Thought I was gonna be the only one not making a play on this one, as everyone I know has a play down already, but I just don’t have a feel either way on the side or the total as nothing would surprise me so that spells “pass” all day long for me.
 
carolinablue said:
Thought I was gonna be the only one not making a play on this one, as everyone I know has a play down already, but I just don’t have a feel either way on the side or the total as nothing would surprise me so that spells “pass” all day long for me.
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That's about where I land myself. May make a UGA ML bet just so I can be happy either way.
 
gps_3 said:
2015 at UGA. Alabama won 38-10. Before that, it was the 2009 SEC Champ game against Florida, also a comfortable Alabama win. Not saying laying the points is necessarily a bad bet, I just can't understand the folks I've seen saying they're making it a larger than normal bet or biggest bet of the year. Literally nobody will be that surprised if Alabama wins SU, much less covers. There are definitely better games to place a max bet on IMO
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I’m definitely not max betting this game, but I have a hard time seeing this Alabama team winning this
 
gps_3 said:
It’s an odd spot for Alabama as not only an underdog, but one that very few people are giving a chance. It may help us, but I don’t think UGA will be taking us lightly by any stretch, even though this game is essentially meaningless for them as far as the CFP is concerned.
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Hardly. They can eliminate Alabama.
 
gps_3 said:
3 guys have been lost for the season due to injury. At Alabama, we like to keep our injuries confined to one position group. Usually it's LB
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Yeah that has really got me worried, though Saban really praised Trey Sanders for stepping up and doing a good job in protection. Maybe they attack the edge a little more this week with extension of RB type plays, WR screens etc. off RPO action....
 
Timh said:
Yeah that has really got me worried, though Saban really praised Trey Sanders for stepping up and doing a good job in protection. Maybe they attack the edge a little more this week with extension of RB type plays, WR screens etc. off RPO action....
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Trey Sanders was in a car accident this time last year in which he broke his pelvis. Frankly it's amazing he's even gotten on the field at all this year. While he is officially healthy, I believe he's been on a "pitch count" so as not to risk further injury. But he's been pretty good when needed so far. Even if he can go, I don't think Robinson will be too effective. I mentioned it somewhere else, but he's kind of a battering ram back, and our OL is certainly not a battering ram type of OL, and they definitely won't be able to do that against UGAs front 7. So yes, I'd expect alternatives to a traditional running game, jet sweeps, pop passes, etc to give the offense a chance at success. I'd also expect them to use tempo. They've definitely used it more in the last few games, so clearly the staff sees it as a way to overcome the weakness of the OL.
 
Feels like Young has the capability to be a decent / good runner but I'm guessing that he's not done so this season, on purpose. (QB depth / quality, dunno.).

May need to take that leash off this weekend.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Feels like Young has the capability to be a decent / good runner but I'm guessing that he's not done so this season, on purpose. (QB depth / quality, dunno.).

May need to take that leash off this weekend.
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Like other QBs this season, he certainly was off that leash against the Vols.
 
I think Bryce's instinct is to extend plays rather than to take off running, and I feel pretty certain he was coached to avoid running as much as possible this season because of what is behind him on the depth chart. He has been running more these last several games, and I absolutely think we should utilize his running capability against UGA. Might not even have to call designed runs if the OL is as porous as it was last week, he'll already be running for his life
 
Stetson fucking Bennett laying 6.5 to Nick Saban is laughable. Guy has been front running all season on an elite team. Fully expect him to puke it up this week and Kirby not rolling with Daniels all year bites him in the ass.

Watch how fast Bennett gets rattled once he sees pressure for the second or third time all year.

Alabama has Nick Saban and the FAAAAAR better QB. You take the dog all day long.
 
JohnnyGambler said:
Stetson fucking Bennett laying 6.5 to Nick Saban is laughable. Guy has been front running all season on an elite team. Fully expect him to puke it up this week and Kirby not rolling with Daniels all year bites him in the ass.

Watch how fast Bennett gets rattled once he sees pressure for the second or third time all year.

Alabama has Nick Saban and the FAAAAAR better QB. You take the dog all day long.
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I agree about the QB, but in my opinion UGA defense is FAR better than Alabama D; and I’m a huge Tide fan. Just don’t think they match up well at all. Hope I’m wrong though.
 
gps_3 said:
I think Bryce's instinct is to extend plays rather than to take off running, and I feel pretty certain he was coached to avoid running as much as possible this season because of what is behind him on the depth chart. He has been running more these last several games, and I absolutely think we should utilize his running capability against UGA. Might not even have to call designed runs if the OL is as porous as it was last week, he'll already be running for his life
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As a fellow Tide fan, what’s your prediction for how this game plays out and who wins in your mind?
 
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