Seattle/Denver Super Bowl Props Discussion

twinkie13 said:
THE SHORTEST TOUCHDOWN SCORED IN THE GAME WILL BE
(FUMBLE RECOVERY IN THE ENDZONE UNDER WINS)
Feb 02 31019 SHORTEST TD SCORE (SEA/DEN) o1½-115
5:30 PM 31020 SHORTEST TD SCORE (SEA/DEN) u1½-115
Click to expand...


one pass interference in the end zone n ur bet is toast .....they put ball on 1 yard line.....gl
 
twinkie13 said:
I like the OVER

Anyone have Denver's yardage plays as they get inside the 5? I know they like that shotgun w/ a RB close, but they throw a bunch in there as Peyton is the general

Also, SEA can run we know. I think if they get inside the 5 yd- 3 yd...Denver isnt the typre of D to stop em short yardage like that.....

Opinions
Click to expand...
I played the OVER 1.5 yards last year and lost. Flacco hit Pitta for a 1 yard td.
 
I went ahead and looked at the superbowl before that NYG vs NE and the lowest td was a 2 yarder: Eli to Salsa.

Year before that, Pitt vs GB, nothing under 1.5 yards.

Year before that, NO vs Indy, 2 yarder: Brees to Shockey.

Year before that, Pitt vs Zona, there were 3 different 1 yd tds.
 
[TABLE="class: linesTbl"]
<tbody>[TR="class: linesColumns"]
[TD="class: linesAlt1"]Sun 2/2[/TD]
[TD="class: contestLine, colspan: 2"]Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD]03:30 PM[/TD]
[TD]3723 Yes[/TD]
[TD]+164[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]3724 No[/TD]
[TD]-194[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

I like Yes. I don't think we have had kickoff return or punt return TD in these playoffs so far. And Manning or Wilson definitely have a pick-6 in them.
 
cogenman said:
I went ahead and looked at the superbowl before that NYG vs NE and the lowest td was a 2 yarder: Eli to Salsa.

Year before that, Pitt vs GB, nothing under 1.5 yards.

Year before that, NO vs Indy, 2 yarder: Brees to Shockey.

Year before that, Pitt vs Zona, there were 3 different 1 yd tds.
Click to expand...

I don't think you went back quite far enough.

Since the NFL switched to a 16 game reg. season (78-79), there's been 35 Super Bowls. 21 (60%) of them have seen at least 1 TD scored from inside the 1. Also, there's been a total of 35 TDs scored from inside the 1 over those 35 SB. That the last 4 SB have seen only 1 total TD scored from inside the 1 is somewhat of an anomaly.
 
aplous said:
I love Longest FG Over 44.5........good weather and 2 kickers that can boom
Click to expand...

Just what I came in here to look for. I like that one too, going to hit it.
I'm also on longest penalty over 15.5 yards. Physical corners that are bound to get 1 or 2 PI calls in this game. Especially with Denver's Manu Ginobili WR core.
 
This is a better way to play the Harvin rushing prop IMO.
[TABLE="width: 930"]
<tbody>[TR="class: trgameodd, bgcolor: #D9E3EA"]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="class: gamebanner, bgcolor: #C2C2C2, colspan: 100%, align: center"]TOTAL # OF DIFFERENT SEATTLE PLAYERS TO HAVE A RUSH ATTEMPT[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: trgameodd, bgcolor: #D9E3EA"]
[TD="class: childexpand, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: datetime"]Feb 02[/TD]
[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]76605[/TD]
[TD="class: teamname"]OVER PLAYERS[/TD]
[TD="class: spread, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: total, align: right"]o4+115<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="2_1182210_-4_115" style="vertical-align: bottom; margin: 0px 3px;">[/TD]
[TD="class: moneyline, align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: trgameodd, bgcolor: #D9E3EA"]
[TD="class: childexpand, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: datetime"]6:30 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]76606[/TD]
[TD="class: teamname"]UNDER PLAYERS[/TD]
[TD="class: spread, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: total, align: right"]u4-145<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="3_1182210_4_-145" style="vertical-align: bottom; margin: 0px 3px;">

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
I don't think you went back quite far enough.

Since the NFL switched to a 16 game reg. season (78-79), there's been 35 Super Bowls. 21 (60%) of them have seen at least 1 TD scored from inside the 1. Also, there's been a total of 35 TDs scored from inside the 1 over those 35 SB. That the last 4 SB have seen only 1 total TD scored from inside the 1 is somewhat of an anomaly.
Click to expand...
Thanks BC. I knew you'd have the in depth info with your database of info.
 
Various Super Bowl Props via Historical Numbers

Dug into the stats, and rapidly came to find the fact that this game is outdoors (as a fact, independent of particular weather) means quite a lot when bringing to bear historical SB percentages on certain props.

Note: I ignored the first 3 Super Bowls because (1) both teams didn't have to play a minimum of 2 playoff games before the SB proper. That was just a step too far off today's conditions for me to care for whatever those results were (I didn't sift out their details first and then reject these games). It meant some of those SB making teams ended up playing all of 16 total games those seasons, merely matching what a team nowadays plays in the regular aspect alone. So the stat pool I drew from encompasses the last 44 SB, starting with the one that capped the 1969-70 season.

Also note: when I refer to a game having been played indoors, it covers games played both in a domed stadium or a stadium that had its retractable roof closed for the game.

------------

Before I get into highlighting venue specific stats, first there's a couple of standouts.

View attachment 34617

The odds seen here are nothing unusual, since the TD is the usual solid fav to be the 1st score in normal football games. But here is no normal game. 44 Super Bowls, and FG & safeties have opened the scoring in 23 of them: that's a 52.3% rate. +150 odds = implied probability of 40%. 40% vs. 52.3% - where does the value lie in this option? Also, (1) we've gone 3 SB without seeing a FG open the scoring. Only twice over these 44 games ('73-'76, '81-'84) have their been longer droughts, and (2) in 2 playoff games & 4 primetime games this season, Seattle has only once seen a TD open the scoring.


View attachment 34618

In these 44 SB there's been 15 teams that have scored first & lost SU (34.1% rate). Splitting up the numbers based on the venue -

Outdoors: 12 instances in 28 games ... 42.9% rate
Indoors..: 3 instances in 16 games ..... 18.7% rate

+150 = 43.48% implied probability, so the odds per the historical numbers for the nature of the venue are pretty accurate. When the SB is outdoors, that seems to be the time to get interested in the dog for this prop. Indoors...not so much.

------------

View attachment 34619

In these 44 SB there's been 11 games that have totaled 4 or more FG. Splitting up the numbers based on the venue -

Outdoors: 5 instances in 28 games .... 17.8% rate
Indoors..: 6 instances in 16 games .... 37.5% rate

+130 = 43.48% implied probability. Odds here are obv. nowhere close to matching the historical outdoors numbers.


View attachment 34620

In these 44 SB there's been 19 games that have seen the shortest FG kicked from within 24.5 yards. Splitting up the numbers based on the venue -

Outdoors: 13 instances in 28 games ... 46.4% rate
Indoors..: 6 instances in 16 games ..... 37.5% rate

SB that have been played outdoors have obv. offered the greater chance of coughing up a short FG.


View attachment 34621

(I see this is 44.5 now, so...) 13 of these 44 SB have seen the longest successful FG exceed 44 yards. Splitting up the numbers based on venue -

Outdoors: 7 instances in 28 games .... 25.0% rate
Indoors..: 6 instances in 16 games .... 37.5% rate

In 44 SB there's only been 14 total 45+ yard FG made. 88 kickers have combined to average 1 per 3.14 SB.
 
View attachment 34622

In these 44 SB there's been 26 games that have seen the shortest TD scored from inside 1.5 yards. Splitting up the numbers based on the venue -

Outdoors: 14 instances in 28 games ... 50.0% rate
Indoors..: 12 instances in 16 games ... 75.0% rate

For whatever reason, playing free of uncontrollable weather conditions helps with the scoring of very short yardage TDs.


View attachment 34623

In these 44 SB there's been 28 games that have seen the longest TD scored from beyond 44.5 yards. Splitting up the numbers based on the venue -

Outdoors: 20 instances in 28 games .... 71.4% rate
Indoors..: 8 instances in 16 games ...... 50.0% rate

Playing in an outdoors SB has offered the greater opportunity for the scoring of a very long TD: something to do with turf & a defender's footing? -110 odds = implied probability of 52.38%.


View attachment 34624

In these 44 SB there's been 22 games that have totaled at least 6 TD. Splitting up the numbers based on the venue -

Outdoors: 15 instances in 28 games ... 53.6% rate
Indoors..: 7 instances in 16 games ..... 43.7% rate

Playing outdoors not only seems to make for longer yardage TDs, but more of them in total as well (outdoors average 5.67/game vs. an indoor average of 5.50/game).


View attachment 34625

In these 44 SB there's been 17 games that have seen at least one quarter total 21 points. Splitting up the numbers based on the venue -

Outdoors: 10 instances in 28 games ... 35.7% rate (14 total quarters of 21+ pts)
Indoors..: 7 instances in 16 games ..... 43.7% rate (8 total quarters of 21+ pts)

-110 odds = implied probability of 52.38%.


View attachment 34626

In these 44 SB there's been 28 games that have seen at least one quarter total 3 points or less. Splitting up the numbers based on the venue -

Outdoors: 19 instances in 28 games ... 67.8% rate (25 in total: 1 every 4.48 quarters)
Indoors..: 9 instances in 16 games ..... 56.2% rate (12 in total: 1 every 7.11 quarters)

+105 odds for the Under = implied probability of 48.78%. We've gone 4 SB w/out seeing a 3 point or less quarter, which matches the previous longest stretch ('93 to '96) w/out one.
 
P-Unit said:
This is a better way to play the Harvin rushing prop IMO.
[TABLE="width: 930"]
<tbody>[TR="class: trgameodd, bgcolor: #D9E3EA"]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="class: gamebanner, bgcolor: #C2C2C2, align: center"]TOTAL # OF DIFFERENT SEATTLE PLAYERS TO HAVE A RUSH ATTEMPT[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: trgameodd, bgcolor: #D9E3EA"]
[TD="class: childexpand, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: datetime"]Feb 02[/TD]
[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]76605[/TD]
[TD="class: teamname"]OVER PLAYERS[/TD]
[TD="class: spread, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: total, align: right"]o4+115<input name="text_" value="2_1182210_-4_115" style="vertical-align: bottom; margin: 0px 3px;" type="checkbox">[/TD]
[TD="class: moneyline, align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: trgameodd, bgcolor: #D9E3EA"]
[TD="class: childexpand, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: datetime"]6:30 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]76606[/TD]
[TD="class: teamname"]UNDER PLAYERS[/TD]
[TD="class: spread, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: total, align: right"]u4-145<input name="text_" value="3_1182210_4_-145" style="vertical-align: bottom; margin: 0px 3px;" type="checkbox">
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Click to expand...

yeah but if harvin gets one u prob push here. obvs lynch and turbin, and u gotta assume wilson rushes, but are they really gonna do a fb run tonight? doubt it. think this prob lands ona push
 
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