SDQL Week 6

[JROCK1966]

Was 13-17 last week. Not sure I'll be able to research that many games again but I'll see where the week takes me.....

Starting off, of course, with my boyzzz....

Kentucky @ Texas A&M: This one looks like a GREAT dog play and I'm not just saying that because I'm a homer. Putting in my previous game margins and total offensive & total defensive comparisons, it comes back with a 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS record for the home team in pic 1. The records are not necessarily the most eye-popping thing. Take a look at the scores in pic 1. They are all double-digit favs that lost straight up!! I don't think I can ever remember seeing this before. I substituted QB efficiency for total offense in pic 2 and it came back 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS again but a different game come up in the results. A 4pt dog appeared so that's a bit more corroboration. Pic 3 is really cool too. I substituted a negative turnover margin in for offense and all the results with favs disappeared and the only dog appeared as a hit. What does that tell me? I interpret this to mean (and follow along with me here) that the 3 games that lost outright with favs of double digits all had positive turnover margins!! If 3 teams with positive turnover margins all lost as DD favs, how in the world is Texas A&M and their -5 turnover margin going to fare? I fully expect Ky to have a great chance to win the turnover battle in this game. The only thing I worry about is Texas A&M is supposed to have a very good home field advantage. But is it as good or better than the Swamp where this experienced Ky team has already won?? Pick: Kentucky ML & ATS Huge!!

 

[JROCK1966]

MTSU @ Marshall: I put in previous game margins, offensive, and defensive comparisons and came back with 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS record for the home team. This trend, combined with my post #8 in Prov1colt's thread, make taking the points with Middle Tennessee a play!

 

[JROCK1966]

Oklahoma vs. Texas: Pic 1 shows previous game margins, both teams have positive turnover margins, and defensive comparisons. SU record = 5-0 and ATS = 2-3. I added better QB rating in pic 2 and the records lost a win each. I mentioned before I like sometimes checking out crazy numbers and this game Murray has a very good QB rating above 200. So I put that in in Pic 3 and the only return I got was a SU win but ATS loss by the hook. I read somewhere in another post Herman's Longhorns have a very good record as dogs. I think I will tend to agree taking the points here are the play but buying the hook for some added insurance might be prudent.

 

[JROCK1966]

Tulane @ Cincy: This line looked fishy to me right from the get-go and my research has not changed my opinion. On offense, Cincy owns a greater than 70ypg difference. On defense, they own almost a 200ypg difference over Tulane so why in the hell is this line only a touchdown? Pic 1 shows the margins entered and difference in total offense and it comes back at 16-2 SU and 6-5-1 ATS. When I entered the huge mismatch in total defense the records came back at 1-1 SU and 0-1-1 ATS. So your telling me the larger mismatch defensively the stats get, the better chance Tulane has of winning? What? I've said before how much I love discovering counter-intuitive stats!! That is counter-intuitive as Hades! Take a look at the lines in pic 2. The only one that won was the -35pt line. The -3 line lost by 7 and it just so happens this line is 7. Too much coincidence for me so I am calling it....Cincy is officially on upset watch this weekend!! Pick: Tulane +7 & ML.

 

[JROCK1966]

San Diego St. @ Boise St.: Pics 1-3 compare previous game margins, rest, and total offense. Boise has a huge advantage in total offense. The pics show the results by me changing total offense from >50, to >100, and finally >150ypg respectively. The ATS record gets better as one would think from 3-2 to 3-1 and finally to 1-0. In pic 4, I used >0ypg but added the difference in turnover margin. Boise is positive and SDSt is negative. The record is 2-0 ATS. Pick: Lay the pts. Boise St. rolls!

 

[JROCK1966]

Notre Dame @ Va Tech: having difficulty getting a read on a side in this game and have to re-visit later but, in the meantime, it does look like a good Under play.

Pick: Under

 

[Rusty Trombone]

Great read brother!

 

[JROCK1966]

Alabama @ Arkansas: Home teams with previous game margins, turnover margin, total defense, and total offensive comparisons provided. 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in pic 1. One of the ATS losses was a 23.5pt line so I entered the bog stat of this game which I think is Tua's QB efficiency of >200. I couldn't get many hits so I used >180 and it came back 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS. The 2nd pic with the QB efficiency got rid of the 23.5 pt ATS loss from pic 1. The only ATS loss was from a -9.5 line suffice to say I don't think anyone believes Arky will win this game sooooo......not a big fan of laying huge lines but hell someone out there may want to put Bama in a big parlay for fun.

 

[JROCK1966]

Kansas @ WVU: I put in the previous game margins and total defense & offense and got 12-0 SU and 6-6 ATS records for this game for the home team. See pic 1. The eye-popping stat for this game (to me it is anyways) is the Jayhawks still lead the country in turnover margin at +12. I added that in pic 2 and got 2-0 SU and 0-2 ATS. I'm of the opinion coming home, from the tough win at Texas Tech, it might be a little hard for the Neers to get excited for this game and I think my research supports my opinion. Pick: Kansas +28.5

 

[JROCK1966]

Tulsa @ Houston: A big mismatch in this game is the difference between the two total offenses. Both teams are rested as well. I put in previous game margins, greater than 8 days rest, and 3 different comparisons of total offense....from home team >0, >100, and >150ypg over the visiting team. It didn't matter. In each of the 3 queries the ATS record had a win % of 0. Look at the scores in pic 1 as well....they're all very close scores compared to the size of the DD lines. Pick: Tulsa +17.5

 

[JROCK1966]

Georgia Tech @ Louisville: Put in comparisons like other queries and came up with a 2-7 ATS record for the home team in this situation. An eye-popping stat for me is the -7 turnover margin for Louisville. I added the turnover comparison with a simple <0 turnover margin and the records were 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS. Considering that team, from Southern Indiana, has a much larger (-) turnover margin than what I queried, I'm backing the fav Friday night. Pick: Georgia Tech -4.5

 

[JROCK1966]

Florida State @ Miami: So the big stat that pops out at me is the huge total defensive mismatch Miami has over most teams including FSU in this game. It's well over 100ypg difference. I put in my normal comparisons including more rest for the home team and came up with 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS records. I added in the greater than 100ypg defensive difference in pic 2 and the records came up 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS. WHAT? So your telling me that the bigger the mismatch the worse chance the home team has of winning in this situation? How does that make any sense at all?? If I've said it once I've said it dozens of times, I LOVE finding counter-intuitive stuff!! I watched the UNC/Miami game and it was a competitive game until UNC started throwing pick 6s and giving up fumble recoveries to TDs. Considering these two teams are hated rivals, let's just throw the stats out the window. FSU's season can be made with a win here over one of their arch-rivals and I'm thinking they give Miami their best shot this Saturday. Pick: Florida State +13 & ML

 

[B.A.R.]

Interesting take on FSU/Miami...

Good food for thought.

 

[JROCK1966]

Interesting take on FSU/Miami...

Good food for thought.

Lines are tightening BAR...some of our best chances at SU upsets moving forward will be in heated rivalries like this one methinks. Let’s roll!!

 

[JROCK1966]

UAB @ La. Tech: I'm not sure this is a great spot for La. Tech coming home off a tough and big win at N. Tx.....and what must have been a physical battle at LSU the week before. The SU & ATS records from my queries below give the situation some validity as well. Pick: UAB +9.5 & Under 57

 

[Rusty Trombone]

Great stuff brother !

 

[bull]

I need a seminar to learn what all the numbers mean, but no matter. Your prose is supportive and almost everything here is in agreement with my plays and my leans.
Thanks, mr. jrock. :cheers3:

 

[JROCK1966]

I need a seminar to learn what all the numbers mean, but no matter. Your prose is supportive and almost everything here is in agreement with my plays and my leans.
Thanks, mr. jrock. :cheers3:

Now comes the fun part which is hopefully winning!! LOL!!

 

[JROCK1966]

I need a seminar to learn what all the numbers mean, but no matter. Your prose is supportive and almost everything here is in agreement with my plays and my leans.
Thanks, mr. jrock. :cheers3:

There are really only about 5 SDQL codes I'm using. The rest are simple math operators we all learned in elementary school and then the ncaa football stats that SDQL recognizes and searches for. Here are the definitions of the codes I'm using and an example.

H = Home
A = Average (when used with (), Away when used alone
t = current team
o = team's opponent
p = previous
S = Sum

Examples:

tS(turnovers) = team's current season Sum of turnovers
tA(passing yards + rushing yards) = team's current season average total offense

 

[JROCK1966]

Tulsa last night and Georgia Tech & MTSU tonight!! Off to a good start this week!!

:cheers3:

 

[JROCK1966]

Northwestern @ Michigan State: First pic compares total offenses and defenses and previous game margins. Some solid mojo for the home team at 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS. When I add comparisons of QB efficiencies and the turnover margin for the home team we can whittle it down to 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS for the home team. Considering NW took a tough loss last week and it might be tough for them to get back off the mat, I'm siding with the home team and laying the pts. Pick: Michigan State -10

 

[JROCK1966]

Boston College @ NC State: This is going to be a tight ballgame. Briefly, I had to put more constraints than usual to whittle it down to a play. It comes down to these two teams being even in turnover margin. It just so happens, in the 3 examples in pic 1, the 2 ATS wins for the home team came where the home team won the TO battle by 1. In the lone ATS loss, the two teams had 1 TO each. No game in SDQL database history has these parameters I added in pic 2. I know it's a bit of a stretch so let me add my final criteria. I'm tailing @dilaudid8 because he says BC can win this game. Pick: Boston College +6 & +190ML

 

[bull]

Thank You, Mr JROCK. I rode your coattails on GT and MTSU last night :tiphat: But I have to wish you Good Health and your most recent picks.

 

[JROCK1966]

Thank You, Mr JROCK. I rode your coattails on GT and MTSU last night :tiphat: But I have to wish you Good Health and your most recent picks.

Don’t blame you a bit Bull! My wins the past two nights could very well been attributed to that phrase: “Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.” HaHa!! BOL today!!