Scarf 4/8 to 4/16 Bases

Locked all these in at the ass crack of dawn today...and got crap numbers everywhere except the Bravos who if Sanchez sticks with his offspeed stuff vs. a team that K’s a ton, has huge value. And I’ve said this before...Yu is 100% not the pitcher he used to be but is still getting lined that way. Looking to fade him in the right matchups...but my Atl number was just too silly not to bet. BOL everyone.

4/13 Plays

Braves (+210) (1/2.1)
Over 8 Phi/TB (-103) (1.03/1)
Mariners (+105) (1/1.05)
Under 9 Tor/Cle (-103) (1.03/1)
Padres (+102) (1/1.02)
Mets (-128) (1.28/1)
Under 9 StL/Cin (-113) (1.13/1)
 
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Nice job grinding these first few weeks to a positive return.

Looks like a positive night in pucks as well.
 
B.A.R. said:
Nice job grinding these first few weeks to a positive return.

Looks like a positive night in pucks as well.
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Mucho gracias, senor Reno. Been in DC on vacation all week and it’s funny how walking 6 miles/day exhausts your body but yet makes your mind focus on more basic capping principles more or less.

Swingy sport, so I’ll take it. And I just think playoff pucks are as good as it gets in sports so those bets are all shits and giggles but will keep playing them. Such an awesome 2 months with Puck and Bucket playoffs we’ve got here.
 
BJPLAYER said:
good luck Scarf....agree, love the baskets and pucks playoffs
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Thanks, BJPlayer...next week with both playoff sports going it is a killer 2-6 week run. Games on until 2 am EST every night...love it.

VirginiaCavs said:
BOL Scarf lets get that Cards under together
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Thanks, Cavs. The cards kid can hurl and I just hate Cincy’s lineup so sign me up for a 4-1, 5-2 kind of game.

Nice start with the “Fade Yu” stance I’m taking and I think it’s going to be solid for another 2-3 games at least before bookmakers catch up to who is and not who he once was.

Anibal threw pure junk offspeed stuff today, so he’ll be a fade vs. teams better against offspeed stuff and more patient. Couldn’t be more pleased how the day at Wrigley turned out. :-)
 
Puckage Night 2 (1-1) (+0.07)

Wild (+180) (1/1.8)
Penguins -1½ (+145) (1/1.45)

Again, these are purely for fun and to get into the spirit of the greatest playoff sport of them all.
 
I must be stupid because I don’t get why this Mets number has dropped like a rock since AM...one more unit.

Mets (-106) (1.06/1)

Total play will be fixed above average (-117) (2.34/2)
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Mets very public hopefully its not rlm
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If it is, it is, Cavs. Mets were 130 this morning and right up to close it got as low as 105 at one of my shops. This is more a Mets aren’t getting enough oddsmaker credit and I think Milwaukee is getting way too much credit so far. We shall see my friend.
 
But the Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees and Rockies are hugely overvalued early on...the D’Backs, Mets and Braves are hugely undervalued...rode that Angels undervalued train there for a while but that’s left the station now.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I cover them tomorrow Scarf im thinking Oakland is a good fade vs a lefty, Graveman has been looking dead (pun intended) and some important trends work against him.
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Like the logic, Cavs. As I think comes through pretty clearly from my capping patterns, I am looking for starters getting priced too strongly for who they once were or for who they potentially have the public think they can be. Yu is the king of my fade train early and I think targeting guys like this in April is a profitable way to analyze early on.
 
Not to endlessly babble on this topic, but keep an eye out on Cleveland in the next week or so...they’ve got some bizarre patterns early on. Lights out starters but dead bats (but still holding their own). Going to try to find spots for opp team Tribe TTovers (selectively) as their starters cool and Tribe TT overs as their sticks wake up, which they just may be starting to do here.
 
Scarf i recommend looking at team babip and ba-xba to see which teams are having bad luck (low babip) and underschieving (ba-xba). Those are the teams that are really due to wake up
 
scarf31 said:
Like the logic, Cavs. As I think comes through pretty clearly from my capping patterns, I am looking for starters getting priced too strongly for who they once were or for who they potentially have the public think they can be. Yu is the king of my fade train early and I think targeting guys like this in April is a profitable way to analyze early on.
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Totally agree about Yu.
 
Overall Record = (47-44-1) (+9.63 Units)

4/14 Plays

Cardinals (-118) (1.18/1)
Phillies (+122) (1/1.22)
Cubs -1½ (+142) (1/1.42)
 
Shits and giggles puck plays (-1.93 Units)

Predators -1½ (-105) (1.05/1)
Lightning -1½ (+120) (1/1.2)
 
Here comes another cards bullpen adventure. Can't even pin this one on dumbfukk matheny, guys gotta perform.
 
2daBank said:
Here comes another cards bullpen adventure. Can't even pin this one on dumbfukk matheny, guys gotta perform.
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They’re really not playing all that well so far this season, but Cincy is a special level of dog shit bad. Bud Norris as a key cog in that bullpen is a MAJOR concern. Matheny for sure has lost a peg or two of prestige in my book since the beginning of last season. But a win is a win.
 
scarf31 said:
They’re really not playing all that well so far this season, but Cincy is a special level of dog shit bad. Bud Norris as a key cog in that bullpen is a MAJOR concern. Matheny for sure has lost a peg or two of prestige in my book since the beginning of last season. But a win is a win.
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Pen should really become a strength, lot of young talented arms and Reyes on the way. Problem is matheny just loves trusting dog shit vets over young talent, hicks really only youngster he seems to trust (to a degree anyways, when game super close it still the usual suspects he insist on every game!). They were actually quite terrible last homestand but been riding shit out of the rl this series cause like you said reds are playing a special kind of suck, bats havnt come around yet and their pitching all kinds of bad.
 
2daBank said:
Pen should really become a strength, lot of young talented arms and Reyes on the way. Problem is matheny just loves trusting dog shit vets over young talent, hicks really only youngster he seems to trust (to a degree anyways, when game super close it still the usual suspects he insist on every game!). They were actually quite terrible last homestand but been riding shit out of the rl this series cause like you said reds are playing a special kind of suck, bats havnt come around yet and their pitching all kinds of bad.
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Managers handling bullpens is so underrated it is embarrassing. Some guys just don’t get it.

Very early on, but it is no surprise to me how the Mets have started and how exactly Mickey Calloway has managed his bullpen.

The guy sat by Tito’s side and watched him use his best reliever in Miller in the playoffs 2 years ago in the 6th or 7th inning if he needed to. Calloway so far has been absolutely unapologetic in his stance that it’s an all hands on deck approach. There’s no set 7th inning guy or 8th inning guy. Outside the closer, he’s used guys on all different sorts of spots already and I find it refreshing as hell a guy manages to win the god damned game at hand instead of worrying about a pitcher’s fragile ego being used in a spot he may not have thought he’d been used in. I try to pay close attention to managers who are asshats in some of their styles. No idea so far what Counsell or Bud Black are doing...and am extremely impressed with Calloway.

Then there are guys like Aaron Boone (who since he is literally a fucking marionette with Brian Cashman’s hand Up his ass calling all the shots and setting all the lineups/defensive alignments with his analytic nerd crew) who I consider totally unjudgable. In fact, as a Yankees fan (albeit more of an overall MLB fan), I won’t even address Boone by his name when talking about Yanks games with my buddies. I call the Yankees manager Booshman, since it is Brian cashman managing the team via Aaron Boone’s body.

So managing style is something that doesn’t get enough attention I believe.
 
totally agree scarf....i like calloway's approach and hope that cora in boston has similar traits....lmao at booshman....so true....booshman went lefty righty against us and walked one of our coldest hitters to get to hanley who was on fire and we are sitting there saying "go ahead pal you're asking for it" and hanley crushed it
 
BJPLAYER said:
totally agree scarf....i like calloway's approach and hope that cora in boston has similar traits....lmao at booshman....so true....booshman went lefty righty against us and walked one of our coldest hitters to get to hanley who was on fire and we are sitting there saying "go ahead pal you're asking for it" and hanley crushed it
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Exactly, BJ...and you know as a Red Sox fan how much Girardi managed “by his Trapper Keeper full of notes” but not even he was as big an analytic-fucking-asshat as a Cashman puppet...and that is how Booshman was born. Fucking makes me sick. Billy Martin is turning over in his grave thinking about Aarvid the Intern in Cashman’s dork crew running TPS reports how Booshman’s in-game 6th inning pinch hitting analysis percentage usage. Fucking disgusting.
 
I still don't really understand why garardi got fired in a year he was a game from WS? I secretly dream of matheny getting fired and cards bringing Joe in! Or a retarded Mouse, 3 legged dog, pretty much anything or one would be better!! Lol

Totally agree about thought on mets and Calloway, read a lot about him in offseason and def feel like if he keeps those pitchers healthy muts could easily win it all..
 
2daBank said:
I still don't really understand why garardi got fired in a year he was a game from WS?
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I wasn’t exaggerating, 2DB...Cashman wants the team managed HIS way. Which is by a group of analytic nerds running TPS reports nobody fucking understands. By hand picking a total wild card with no experience, AB took the job full-well knowing he would only get it by turning himself into Booshman. Which is exactly what he did.
 
scarf31 said:
I wasn’t exaggerating, 2DB...Cashman wants the team managed HIS way. Which is by a group of analytic nerds running TPS reports nobody fucking understands. By hand picking a total wild card with no experience, AB took the job full-well knowing he would only get it by turning himself into Booshman. Which is exactly what he did.
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lol, oh I believed you. Not sure why guys always want to be all in one way or the other? There a lot of grey area in this world and where most reasonable ppl reside knowing too much of anything never good!

I'm all for using advanced metrics in my capping, I find it incredibly valuable, but the guys who think they the be all end all crack me up. I'll see the all out types drive lines against a pitcher that is "lucky" according to metrics all year, then the next year, then after getting raped for 3 years when said pitcher starts to break down you then hear "was only matter of time till his luck ran out!" Gtfoh, lol. Gray area! Some guys simply know how to pitch and don't have to strike everyone out, it isn't luck!!
 
Wow...early quit by me on the Cubs game marking the RL as a loss in post #1. Nothing like 12 unanswered runs to rise your dead RL bet to a W. :-)

They being said, fuck you very much Colorado for your goal with 36 seconds left to kill my puck line bet...lmao.
 
Royals (+149) (1/1.49)
Diamondbacks (+165) (1/1.65)

Junis has looked way too good to have this number out there and LAA can’t keep this up forever.

And if someone can tell me what the fuck the Dodgers are doing to continue getting lined in the 160 to 180 range when the lineup and starters both have performed like ass, I’d love to know. Again, betting a silly number with the team I think is playing world’s better right now.
 
scarf31 said:
Royals (+149) (1/1.49)
Diamondbacks (+165) (1/1.65)

Junis has looked way too good to have this number out there and LAA can’t keep this up forever.

And if someone can tell me what the fuck the Dodgers are doing to continue getting lined in the 160 to 180 range when the lineup and starters both have performed like ass, I’d love to know. Again, betting a silly number with the team I think is playing world’s better right now.
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Market doesn‘t adjust to form
 
scarf31 said:
Wow...early quit by me on the Cubs game marking the RL as a loss in post #1. Nothing like 12 unanswered runs to rise your dead RL bet to a W. :)

They being said, fuck you very much Colorado for your goal with 36 seconds left to kill my puck line bet...lmao.
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I was on braves, you suck! Lol.. at least somebody won because of that redic 3 hit 9 run inning!!! Lol
 
2daBank said:
I was on braves, you suck! Lol.. at least somebody won because of that redic 3 hit 9 run inning!!! Lol
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As my grandfather would say when I was a kid...”that was pure shit luck, 2DB.” Better to be lucky than good I suppose though :-)

Last one on the night...

Mariners (-103) (2.06/2)
 
No doubt. I knew something stupid was gonna happen with that silly weather, once braves had lead after 5th I was pretty much begging for them to call it every inning till it was too late. Lol.. seems like I'm part of at least one tragic pen meltdown (not your garden variety that happen all time) a year, at least I got it out of way! Lol.. turned around and cashed rangers which didn't seem real likely, it all works out in the end.

Be nice if kc could get a damn hit!!
 
2daBank said:
No doubt. I knew something stupid was gonna happen with that silly weather, once braves had lead after 5th I was pretty much begging for them to call it every inning till it was too late. Lol.. seems like I'm part of at least one tragic pen meltdown (not your garden variety that happen all time) a year, at least I got it out of way! Lol.. turned around and cashed rangers which didn't seem real likely, it all works out in the end.

Be nice if kc could get a damn hit!!
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Exactly Re: bullpens...tragic meltdowns are what makes us all age betting this sport.

And the Royals...damn, I didn’t think their offense was going to be this putrid. That Perez injury really hurt them...guy needs to stop carrying his own luggage. Unreal how that can injure an MLB player.
 
Lol. I didn't know that how he got hurt, that some pretty funny shit!! I guess prob not so much if you a kc fan. lol
 
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As a great capper I know once would often say...regression is coming. 26-8 in my last 34 Plays which is just not sustainable...but going to keep riding the wave as far as it takes me.

Overall Record = (54-46-1) (+16.92 Units)

4/15 Plays

Padres (-112) (1.12/1)
Mariners (+108) (1/1.08)
 
Too much stuff to get done today to finalize the detailed record stuff (which i left at the office anyway), so I’ll elongate this thread one more day. BOL everyone.

Overall Record = (55-47-1) (+16.92 Units)

4/16 Plays

Yankees -1½ (-134) (1.34/1)
White Sox (+138) (1/1.38)
 
Drinking Belgian Beers Going to bet Pucks For The Fuck of It Wager

Ducks -1½ (+375) (0.68/2.54)
 
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