Satyr
Paster of Muppets
Yesterday would have been a blow out had it not been for an unbelievable 4th quarter, which of course made us lose the bet in the end...not sure what I'm doing wrong, if we had a game on it's way to 240 points. Ends up 220. For comparison, last time these two teams met, last quarter ended in a 70 point effort. Situationally this was no different, but they ended up shutting down and not even fouling in the last minute.
I would not give any plays tonight since my credibility has to be sub zero now, but the fact is, the Charlotte Bobcats have no playmaker available tonight. All their PGs are injured (Felton, Derek Anderson, Jeff McInnis), Detroit is 2-2 in last 4 vs Charlotte, this is not something Detroit forgets as Tuck put it in his thread and I can only concur. The Pistons do not have a classic letdown spot after beating high profile opposition. Last time they beat Boston they hammered their next few opponents as well. Same here after a game with the Spurs. I am becoming a disciple of Tuck
. But really, he's right, they do not have letdowns in such situations.
This looks like a solid one because the Pistons do not have a classic lookahead mentality either. They do have NY on deck tomorrow but they usually don't rest starters and think about the next one much even with a game the next day against a much more demanding opposition than NY. I looked at the 1st half bet here but the last time I did that they got up by 4 (I needed them to lead by 6) against Memphis only to blow them out in the 3rd quarter, saying afterwards how 3rd quarter performances have been crucial in their recent run.
Fundamentally, the Pistons will have a huge matchup advantage in the backcourt tonight. The Bobcats are not built to stop a top notch perimeter game. Also have in mind Charlotte played 2 overtimes last night in Cleveland are playing their 5th game in 7 nights. Detroit should win by 20 here rather easily, I'm not that afraid of the backdoor cover even if it is a significant spread, because the Bobcats have no one to run the floor.
Pistons -10 (1.99) 5 units
Playing back to back is demanding enough even without having a Denver-Salt Lake City switch. The Magic are regressing on the road after a great start. They're losing games they are completely in (NJ, DEN) and tend to collapse in the 4th quarter. This is a clear sign of regressing, the inability to close out games, or to step up in the decisive moments. Stan Van Gundy said earlier this month they're not a team that will go on and win 75% of the games, that they need to adapt and grow, and it is showing now. A team that lives and dies by the jumpshot (regardless of having Howard inside) does not look good in front of a clash with one of the deepest and most versatile teams around. Expect the Jazz to make a huge statement here and win by 15 or more. They have battled poor form lately, but shook it off by two commanding efforts in the last two games. This may not be a championship winning team but are definitely a top 5 Western conference team. Orlando should drop on their faces tonight, after collapsing in the 4th in Denver last night.
Utah -7 (1.93) 6 units
Yep I know. Chalk. As far as other bets are concerned, I'm leaning SA-MIN under 188 and Clippers +7.5. Dallas does not fare well in b2b spots, nor in LA against the Clippers. Even though they are surging right now (which makes it a no play for me), I think they won't be as convincing tonight, possibly even lose the game.
Of course, I did a similar thing last night in New Jersey, all I needed is that the Nets don't lose the last Q by 13. They lost by 14.
If I go 0-2 again I will take a break until the post All star game period.
I would not give any plays tonight since my credibility has to be sub zero now, but the fact is, the Charlotte Bobcats have no playmaker available tonight. All their PGs are injured (Felton, Derek Anderson, Jeff McInnis), Detroit is 2-2 in last 4 vs Charlotte, this is not something Detroit forgets as Tuck put it in his thread and I can only concur. The Pistons do not have a classic letdown spot after beating high profile opposition. Last time they beat Boston they hammered their next few opponents as well. Same here after a game with the Spurs. I am becoming a disciple of Tuck
. But really, he's right, they do not have letdowns in such situations. This looks like a solid one because the Pistons do not have a classic lookahead mentality either. They do have NY on deck tomorrow but they usually don't rest starters and think about the next one much even with a game the next day against a much more demanding opposition than NY. I looked at the 1st half bet here but the last time I did that they got up by 4 (I needed them to lead by 6) against Memphis only to blow them out in the 3rd quarter, saying afterwards how 3rd quarter performances have been crucial in their recent run.
Fundamentally, the Pistons will have a huge matchup advantage in the backcourt tonight. The Bobcats are not built to stop a top notch perimeter game. Also have in mind Charlotte played 2 overtimes last night in Cleveland are playing their 5th game in 7 nights. Detroit should win by 20 here rather easily, I'm not that afraid of the backdoor cover even if it is a significant spread, because the Bobcats have no one to run the floor.
Pistons -10 (1.99) 5 units
Playing back to back is demanding enough even without having a Denver-Salt Lake City switch. The Magic are regressing on the road after a great start. They're losing games they are completely in (NJ, DEN) and tend to collapse in the 4th quarter. This is a clear sign of regressing, the inability to close out games, or to step up in the decisive moments. Stan Van Gundy said earlier this month they're not a team that will go on and win 75% of the games, that they need to adapt and grow, and it is showing now. A team that lives and dies by the jumpshot (regardless of having Howard inside) does not look good in front of a clash with one of the deepest and most versatile teams around. Expect the Jazz to make a huge statement here and win by 15 or more. They have battled poor form lately, but shook it off by two commanding efforts in the last two games. This may not be a championship winning team but are definitely a top 5 Western conference team. Orlando should drop on their faces tonight, after collapsing in the 4th in Denver last night.
Utah -7 (1.93) 6 units
Yep I know. Chalk. As far as other bets are concerned, I'm leaning SA-MIN under 188 and Clippers +7.5. Dallas does not fare well in b2b spots, nor in LA against the Clippers. Even though they are surging right now (which makes it a no play for me), I think they won't be as convincing tonight, possibly even lose the game.
Of course, I did a similar thing last night in New Jersey, all I needed is that the Nets don't lose the last Q by 13. They lost by 14.
If I go 0-2 again I will take a break until the post All star game period.
) and will need some time to regroup in that area as well. Some of the guys know the details, not important anyways.
) picked as well, gone wrong and I just couldn't understand what is wrong. The answer is nothing. November was great, this month started great and I'm still the same capper in all of three month. I still don't know what was wrong last month and I don't care. I believed in myself and kept it going and it paid of and so should you. You a good capper. I read your thoughts here and in BA and your approach on the games and I believe that it is just a bad streak for, just as it was for me, just lasting a bit longer. Just ride the bad streak with smaller investments untill it ends and as soon as the good streak will begin, you will feel it and return all your losses.
:cheers:
