Saturday's CFB...


CTG Regular
Sorry fellas, no time to write up all this mess today. Ask me about a certain game and if I have time (I'll do my best), I'll give you thoughts as to why I didn't get involved. Hell, if someone can talk me into one, I might even bet it. I don't have time to thoroughly cap all of these games (NO ONE can, I'm sorry, not for these three Saturdays, no matter how hard you try)...

I made Florida State higher but not interested in laying it with them at all considering they can't score. WMU's defense is capable of keeping this one interesting; I like UNDER but not at 43.5. Will consider a play if it goes up a little.

Louisville tough as nails at home and this is a big revenger and I could be kicking myself if they stop Grothe and plow into this bunch for 600 yards (possible) - but off that first loss, I'm not interested.

Not sure how they can make Syracuse a favorite after UConn's impressive win over Pitt in which they coulda easily rolled over and quit. Cuse still winless under Robinson in BE play.

The play: UConn plus 110 Moneyline for a small bet.

Situational handicapping dictates Cincy today. And I made the game lower and simply LOVE this side. In their last game in Morgantown, they were nearly even in yardage. Four crucial turnovers doomed them in defeat there. But they've played teams that are about equivalent to Rutgers all season. In fact, D'Antonio's schedule this year ranks up there in my mind as perhaps THE BEST in the country. The Bearcats have played at Ohio State, at Virginia Tech, at Louisville, and at West Virginia. They won't be intimidated today and that defense should rise to the occasion and make big plays and shut down Rice and Leonard. Letdown is always a factor too, even with the extra prep.

The play: Cincinnati plus 7 for a big bet.

All confused about Wake. I really like Grobe (as you all know) but they and Maryland just have me shaking my head weekly, finding new ways to win despite getting out-statted nearly EVERY TIME OUT. Pass.
Jorja Tech has no interest in blowing out anyone, not with big game at Jorja next. Techsters 7-19 ATS when laying more than 7. Gailey 2-9-1 ATS at GT when laying 10 or more. Duke hasn't quit all year and with Roof being an ex-Jacket, they'll play hard for him today too. Missed value while doing more research here. Strictly a tech play.

The play: Puke plus 24.5 for a medium bet.

Not sure who gives Illinois the right to be favored. Northwestern is the better team and they're playing at home. Sutton has finally lived up to the hype lately, with two big games in the last four (the other two were against OSU and UM). DOG has got cash in all 9 Illinois lined games, and with a bottom-three turnover margin and bad special teams, let's try the CATS today.

The play: Northwestern plus 3 for a small bet and plus 125 for a medium bet.

Iowa always seems to beat Minny. Despite just one cover this year, I'll take the three and bet a little ML on the Hawks (12-1 ATS last 13 vs UM) and this would keep the Gophers out of a bowl.

The play: Iowa plus 3 for a small bet and plus 125 for a small bet.

Tenny should have plenty of motivation at Vandy but the 'Dore offense did have 621 yards last week. Now that they're 4-7, there is no pressure on Vandy and they beat the Vols in Knoxvul last year despite being non-bowl bound then, too. One score-plus is too much to lay with a team that can't run and a banged-up QB.

The play: Vandy plus 8 for a medium bet.

Two overmatched defenses in Lubbock. Can't make the total high enough. Leach usually good in revenge spots and off losses (ATS).

The play: Texas Tech/OSU OVER 69.5 for a medium bet.

Not sure where they get off making Oregon State only 14.5 against Stanford. The Tree had just seven first downs last week and were the beneficiary of 20-percent passing by the brutally bad Washington QB's. The last three years, Stanford has a total of 57 yards on 91 carries against the Beavers (0.6 ypc) and their rushing game won't have any success today either. Beavers are 5-1 ATS as road fave the last three-plus years. Ostrander won't have any time to make plays today and the Tree offense won't muster anything. Will wait for a better number (14), as the next logical stop from 14.5 is 16 or 16.5.

The play: Oregon State anything up to -16.5 for a big bet. Waiting for now.

Made Oregon only -11 so since Dr. Bob bet them up to the current price, I see a little value in Stoopsie despite the possible road letdown today.

The play: Zona plus 15 for a small bet.

Last year, UTEP beat Marshall 31-3. The Herd have given up nearly 300 ypg in the air the last three and facing Palmer today won't be fun. If UTEP can finish 8-4, they will surely be bowling. I made UTEP the favorite here and will take my points and ML fun.

The play: UTEP plus 3 for a small bet and plus 130 for a medium bet.

How can Fresno lay DD's to anyone? NO covers in one calendar year or more and now they face an Idaho team that can score when not outclassed.

The play: Idaho plus 11.5 for a small bet.

Not sure what to make of Wazzou's dismal effort last week but it had to be better than the downtrodden Huskies have been lately. I made it a little higher and have heard there is possible dissention in the ranks at U-Dubb.

The play: Wazzou -8 for a small bet.

Not sure how MSU is gonna score after struggling mightily the last couple of weeks against bottom-feeding Big 10 defenses. Now they get the best on the road in a season finale with no bowl hopes. Pride could keep it close for awhile but that will just be a defensive effort. The total is too high here.

The play: UNDER 45 in Happy Valley for a medium bet.

Very strong opinion in Lawrence today. K-State shocked a QB-less Texas team last week at home by continuing to score. Yes, the Wildcats have really gotten better this season, basically every week since the Louisville game. But their road efforts (like most youth-laden teams) ain't been to the level of the home games, sans the Colly win two weeks back. K-State playing its 12th straight, while HAWKS are off a BYE. You can be sure the win and headlines K-state grabbed last week got Fat Man Mangino's and his boys' attention.

The play: Kansas -2.5 for a big bet.

Whittingham has always seemed to have problems containing the option that AFA runs. Despite a rash of losses here lately, can see the Flyboys getting up for this one at home.

The play: Air Force plus 1 for a medium bet.

Made RENO much higher against Lousyana Tech. Yes, they have the big one against Boise next week but I see no look-ahead here. Reno has covered eight in a row and the defense has given up seven or fewer points in three of the last four. LT 2-7 ATS this year; Reno had 458-229 yardage edge last year but only won by 10 because of turnovers. Reno 12-1 ATS last 13 as a fave. At 17.5, I'd recommend a medium bet. I got the better of the number, so...

The play: Nevada -17 for a big bet.

Read HawaiiGuy's writeup about the game on the islands tonight...

The play: San Jose plus 25.5 for a medium bet. UNDER 73 for a small bet.

Nothing in the shit games. Lean to U-La-La laying only 3 but FIU gets their players back this week. Will lay 7 if it pops up with Troy (made it 10.5).

Good luck!

Man, glad to see you on Kansas, one of my favorites today. Good stuff as usual, first post I look for in here. Ainge back today and Tenn in a foull mood and big revenge spot; kinda biased but think the Vols roll. Good luck, card looks good.
Forgot one. I really don't like Maryland's team at all, but they continue to find ways to win. Much to be said about a senior QB, good special teams and not making mistakes. I made this game 3 so I have to take the points.

The play: Maryland plus 8 for a medium bet.
GL today Rex - I am trying to see the rationale in the Kansas game today as quite a few I respect like it also. I understand the situational aspect but aren't you worried about that porous Kansas secondary? And yes we know you don't like MD lol.....that's well documented.
I played Cincy as well. These are the type of games I circle. Moving the game to 7 should also add a boost to Cincy.

Good Luck Rex.
You know I tried to find every reason to play Cincy today, but I don't think its enough points. How are they going to score on that defense? I started to think under in this one.
Timmy: It's not that I don't like Maryland. I just don't like this team. I love their coach. I bet them heavy against WV and have been on and against them in other spots this season.

I just can't believe the total lack of respect from everyone. I don't respect them but I thought 3 would be a fair line today, basically a toss-up. They (and Dr. Bob) think it should be higher. I gotta think some sharp cash comes for the Terps later.

Not worried about Kansas's secondary too much, they should get pressure on that young K-State QB, and he's only played one road game (at sorry Colorado) worth mentioning.

Well, I'll be watching that one for halftime purposes but I'll be much more into the Kansas State-Kansas game for sure; that's where my cash is at.

I made the game 6. There will be money for both sides. People I respect will lay 6.5 and will take 7.5.

I gave Mishitgan the edge up front on defense but OSU runs a spread offense so that doesn't really give them any edges in the matchup department, because Smith's mobility can cause problems (it did for the UM defense last year)...

On the other side, OSU will crowd the box and make it tough on Hart to try to run. The two receivers aren't all the way healthy for the Wolves and the passing game hasn't been too sharp lately.

So matchups, I favor OSU. Personnel is close to even. Home field is OSU. Perhaps extra incentive (could there be any?) favors UM cause of the "BO" factor. Hell, I don't know.

Not interested in betting this game. It's just another game as far as betting goes. Will it be a classic. I hope so. Will I get involved at halftime? I sure hope so.

But if you're interested in betting to make money, there are 30-plus football games better than investing in than this one today, in my mind...

Thanks Rex, I appreciate the insight. I'll probably put 1 unit on OSU anyway...I look forward to your half time play! Good Luck :shake:
You know I am only breaking your balls a little's all about winning. Thanks for your thoughts on Kansas. I may have to jump on board on that one. I'm still thinking about taking the 8 with the Terps as well. That line being over a TD is very tempting.