Saturday's CFB...


CTG Regular
Not a very good card this week in my opinion. Had one losing week all year but haven't started out well this week with the Flyboys Thursday and UCF (non-posted, thankfully for you guys lol) plus 11 last night. Never had a whiff.

Cuse might be starting tailspin now that easy part of sked is out of the way and the Big East gets to rip into them. WVA could have field day, but might also be looking ahead. Pass.

Purdue seems a little more explosive than Northwestern at this point but I'm not interested in laying more than a touchdown with them in a Big 10 game away from Lafayette.

Wisky/Minny - two teams that have been better than I thought they would be. Need to watch one to see if I got their ratings close to right yet (I made this game 8.5 by the way).

Hate to do it but I gotta take Indiana again at home. Iowa has Mishitgan on deck in Ann Arbor and I think IU has enough going for them after the tremendous comeback last week to keep this one close now that Hoeppner is back in full charge of this team and the true frosh QB is maturing before our eyes. Iowa won 38-21 last year, but the final score was not indicative of how close the game was. The Hawkeyes led only 24-21 midway through the fourth quarter. Hardy had big numbers in the game (12 catches for 203 yards and a touchdown). He emerged again last week.

The play: Indiana plus 20 for a medium bet.

You guys all know how much I like Wake, and NC State is horrible when laying points to anyone. Will the last two wins turn their season around? Who knows. I know Wake was up 14 and ready to kick a field goal at the start of the fourth quarter last week before losing by 10 but they did get dominated in yards by Clemson and I think NC State and its new quarterback should win this by a field goal. Gotta lay the reduced number.

The play: NC State -3 for a small bet.

See other threads on MD/VA. Not interested in laying it with the Twerps on the road but Vagina sucks. Pass.

Carolina coming home after rough road efforts lately. USF a little better but not involved trying to lay points with them.

Ball catching too many with this offense in Mount Pleasant. Davis leads country in pass efficiency and was the most highly-recruited MAC player last season. Saying something to replace ex-coach's son, 5th-year senior, 3rd-year starting QB with a "TRUE" but this is Davis for ya. CMU emerging as MAC giant but Ball needs this to stay in race. Don't be surprised...

The play: Ball plus 11 for a medium bet (LOOK AT OVER TOO BOYS)

Pass on Army/UConn. Value gone. Woulda loved Army plus 6 or so. UCOnn does own the series though, so can't read too much into firing on Black Knights.

Rutgers/Navy certainly should be interesting to watch. Smart money on Navy all week and I can't blame them, BUT... Rutgers held Navy to 205 last year on the ground (lowest of season) and they are coming off the BYE and beat Navy last year. Pass.

Mizzou laying points at Ayyunem is not the right thing but I cannot bet on AGS with Mizzou not having trailed all season.

K-State isn't very good but as a friend of mine pointed out, it's not like NEB is crushing these B-XII foes. Pass.

Waited for some 2.5s to pop up in Kalamazoo and when they did, I fired. Western Mishitgan is no kind of team to stop Northern from doing whatever they want. Broncs gave up 257 on the ground to OU last week and legit Heisman candidate Wolfe should have a field day. Western 1-9 as HD since 2001 and NIU has 101 points and 1203 total yards in last two games against Western!!! Lay it.

The play: Northern Illy -2.5 for a medium bet

Hard to get interested in either side in Tuscaloosa. Ole Piss shoulda lost to Vandy and Bammer was outplayed by Puke last week. Pass.

Wyoming is rapidly improving and the win last week should do wonders for its confidence. I lost betting against the Utes 9 days back but Ratliff has been far from consistent and I don't see why Wyoming is catching points here.

The play: Wyoming plus 3.5 for a medium bet

Go-with vs. go-with in Greenvul. Tulsa has been tough as nails and ECU is 5-0 ATS this year. Pass the first half at least.

SMU QB Willis is back from suspension and I think that is a bigger deal than what is reflected in the line (1/2 or 1-point move; I had him worth 3.5 or 4 more FULL POINTS than with the backup); so I'll lay it against cash-burning Thundering Turd (6-16 last 22 ATS).

The play: SMU -4.5 for a medium bet.

Not interested in either side of Florida/Auburn before the half (made Florida 1.5 fave).

Cal averaging 35 or so points in first halfs of all games since UT debacle. Won't fade but I do like Wazzou a little here at this number.

Not sure who Jorja is to lay more than two scores to ANYONE at this point. Vandy shoulda won last week and is a well-coached unit that will certainly play hard. Bubble burst for Jorja last week and with their QB issues (Vandy's is gonna play), I would be reluctant to say UGA will even win on the field.

The play: Vandy plus 14.5 for a medium bet.

No clue on Mishitgan State's psyche. I made the game 12 but no way will you catch me on Sparty after the last 3 weeks.

Florida State is another schizo outfit. After last loss, creamed Rice. But who cares? Will they show up today? You figure it out.

Wazzou in unfamiliar role of favorite for the first time. OSU has had success against Ty and I will get involved on 'dog' if I get the line (missed the 10 the first time, will look for 10 or 10.5)... Can see UW winning but this unfamiliar role and a dinged-up QB make the dog worth a look.

The play: OSU plus 10 (if and when it comes) for a small bet.

Who is Kent State to start laying more than one score to Toledo? This is still the MAC, right?

The play: Toledo plus 7.5 for a medium bet

Burning Green rapidly improving while EMU definitely needed the bye. Look for a high-scoring game but not interested in laying DDs with the Falcs - but they would be my only side.

Okie, after 2nd loss, likely due for letdown. Iowa State 6-1 ATS last 7 as DD-dog and they have a well-balanced offense that should keep this fairly tight.

The play: Iowa State plus 20 for a small bet

GSFW's back on mainland but HawaiiGuy said it best - no one forgets SEVENTY-to-FOURTEEN. This is a revenge spot and Fresno is 0-8 last 8 ATS dating back to USC in 2005. UH 5-2 last seven in continental 48 and they should outscore Fresneck.

The play: Hawaii -4 for a medium bet. Will bet more if a '3' pops up.

Who is Arizona to lay points without a quarterback? Stanford ain't been 0-7 since Eisenhower admin; two bad teams, will pass.

San Jose number really got away from me but this is a rapidly-improving group under Tomey, who has given them loads of confidence. I made it 18.5 so will bet small, though wary of fact Jose hasn't laid this price since 2002 (58-24 win over UTEP laying 17)...

The play: Jose -16.5 for a small bet

Rice is pretty small up front so it concerns me that U-ab ran for 279 yards on 50 carries in beating Memphis last week but Clement has seven TD passes the last two weeks and this is the Owls' first home game since Sept. 2! It's also their only home game until Nov. 18!!! Armstrong back to receiver now that Clement tossed for 570 the last two weeks; he's caught 11 passes in the last 2 weeks. Blazers without six starters or big backups this week to injury.

The play: Rice plus 5 for a medium bet

Who is Illinois to start laying six or more to anyone? OU's beaten the best team in Illinois (Northern) soundly on the road already this year.

The play: Ohio plus 6.5 for a small bet

They all want to bet on Cincinnati but not sure why. Cards almost always get the cash at home and it's not too much of a stretch to see U of L covering at halftime here; Urrutia causes serious matchup probs for undermanned UC secondary.

The play: Cards -24.5 for a small bet

Who knows UH mindset after blowing 21-0 lead in stunning loss to U-La-La last week. Trends favor Southern Piss but they're only favored two - and are missing best two offensive players to suspension for the first half. Pass.

Like Kansas and realize there is some opposition but cannot lay points with KU after potentially fragile mental state; they lost to Neb and Ayyunem back-to-back, both games they should have won.

Tech laying only seven to Colorado. Many I respect like the 'dog' here but if Harrell can throw it to his guys AND they don't spit the ball up on the carpet, I don't see how young Buff defense slows down basketball on grass offense.

THe play: Texas Tech -7 for a medium bet. Will bet more at less than 7 if I see it.

Been 9-1 on my Saturday big bets and I only saw one this week: Baylor. I made the game 20; cannot believe the lack of respect Morriss gets from peers and bettors alike. Bears competitive with virtually everyone despite lack of running game. They can score enough to keep this interesting for a good long while.

The play: Baylor plus 29 for a big bet.

Louisiana Tech has played the toughest sked in America so I can see why they are laying points but you won't catch me doing that with them.

I made LSU higher so I can't bet on Kentucky but this is another ideal situation for Rich Brooks, as LSU likely flat as a pancake after second loss and national title dreams shattered.

No clue on USC/Zona State. Two teams that are a shell of what they have been and what others thought they might still be.

I think Mishitgan is the best team in America right now but refuse to lay it in Happy Valley against hyped Beavers who are anxious to atone for last year's grand theft in Ann Arbor that cost them a shot at the national title.
PSU a great home dog (4-0 last 2 years) lately. Passing til halftime.

I made UTEP higher but not on purpose (check how many times I've had Tulane this year); but people are sick of blowing their money on El Paso as a favorite (seven straight ATS losses) and Palmer's inconsistency. An overadjustment in the line (woulda been 18 or so about 10-14 days ago)... Won't play but don't be surprised in Tulane winning on the field.

No clue on Vegas/UNM. I thought UNLV would be a lot better than it has been to say the least. Cannot justify either side right now.

In the shit games, lean to dog in Miami but missed the 29; also like Arky State but missed the 11 there; and I made Troy higher but Monroe eager to get into Sun Belt comp after rigorous non-con slate (at Kansas and Bammer) and they are 7-3 as dogs last year-plus....

Good luck all!!!
GL today Rex. I can't bring myself to play TT today after watching that debacle last week with all the TO's. Leach is good off a loss though and I'm sure he'll have them ready to play.
nice year you got going rex....keep up the good put the time in...nice to see you reap the rewards:cheers:
Rex- For a card you don't like , that's quite a few plays. Ha Ha.
Good luck with it. You pushed me off the fence on several :cheers: .
Thanks fellas.

First halftime of the day.

Rutgers plus 1/2 for a medium bet. Other book moved the line before I could get down all of my bet (wanted a big one)

Navy quarterback is out and Rutgers seems to have their rushing game figured out. And now they're trying to lay points???

Also added more on Texas Tech -5 and will be adding more to Hawaii -3. Hawaii is now a big bet, my second of the day. It's worth noting that the line movement has been wrong on UH games every week, if Hawaiiguy is correct (and I think he is)...
Another small winner on Saturday. 2-4 in small bets, 5-3-1 in mediums and 1-1 for bigs for the games; with 1-1 on posted mediums and 1-0 on posted bigs at the half.

Very very frustrating loss in the Baylor game. Anyone who watched it knows the Bears were the right side. Up 10-0 at the end of one, with the ball and positioning for a field goal that should have put them up 13-0.

To get outgained by only 150 yards and be relatively competitive throughout, only to see that final score, is terribly frustrating. You cannot handicap turnovers, and to lose that battle 5-1 (and get an INT taken away due to a STUPID late hit on the QB) is suicidal when playing someone like Texas.

Morriss thought the same thing I did: he wanted to have a chance to win on the field and I think they really had a shot. Yes, Texas was dominant up front and they would win 19 times out of 20 when these teams play. But if THEY were the ones with four more turnovers, who knows. As it played out, I think Texas would only cover 1 time out of 20 - the game that played out the way it did last night.

What makes it more frustrating is that I was 9-1 on my big bets going into the day and none of the wins has even been a sweat except for Michigan/Minny a couple of weeks back when Minny almost snuck in the backdoor.

Not gonna cry about it though, but I do know I had the right side. Coulda been 3-0 on big bets total, which makes a huge difference in the bottom line as compared to 2-1 (as you all know).

Working on box scores for next week as we speak. GL all!!!

Rexy, speaking of the Baylor/Texas game, the only thing I would contend with you on is this: Sometimes you can't fuck with tradition, no matter how right it looks. Since 1998, Texas had outscored Baylor 392-58! What happened last night? Texas carried on tradition. Did Baylor commit a lot of useless turnovers? Yes. Did Baylor come in with a good game plan? I actually liked Baylor's game plan better than I liked Texas with the way it was called last night. Did Baylor play hard enough to cover this spread? Sure they did!

But the bottom line is that tradition carried onward last night -- Big brother ass-whipped Little brother in scoring.

Sometimes, you just can't fuck with tradition . . . . . . .
Denny: I guess so. But those guys who were seniors for Baylor and have aspirations of playing in a bowl aren't the same clowns who were playing for the previous two coaching regimes that used to get continually bitch-slapped by OU, Tech, Ayyunem and Texas.

Morriss is a fine coach who caters to his strengths.

The gap is closing. It's never going to be fully closed, but within a few years, Baylor will jump up and get Texas or Okie (shoulda got Okie last year) ... it will happen...

Went ahead and bet Boise -26 for a medium bet for today. Can't see the line doing anything but going up unless Walters comes in on the 'dog'. NM State and Mumme still with the 'defense-optional' idea, and that won't work against a team eager for some BCS love in one of its rare nationally-televised games.

The play: Boise -26 for a medium bet

Passing Miami O at Barfalo with the current line of 7.5. There were 7s out there Friday before the annnounced postponement. If I can see less than 7 for some reason, I'll be there for a small bet, at least. Even though Miami is 0-6, let's keep in mind they have at least been competitive - Buffalo beat Temple on OT and lost by 30 to Ball last week. Come on.
Thanks Rex

Rex another great day for ya. Your imput is greatly appreciated.

I saw alot of that Baylor game and that was absolutly the the correct play. If you would have told me Baylor would score as much as they did and not cover, I'd say no way.

BOL on the games today.