Saturday's CFB...


CTG Regular
Penn State awfully high; will consider taking 20 with Northwestern, being that I think PSU will struggle to score 20. Northwestern will struggle to score period, though. 18 ppg average vs. PSU last decade or so and that was with a "decent" offense.

Taking Kansas plus 23 against the Corn Shitters. Last year they beat NU up and down the field 40-15 in a game that wasn't that close. It was their first win over the Shitters since 1968 and I know revenge might be served today. But KU has two capable quarterbacks and a coach who has the uncanny ability to keep most any game close - he's also played Nebraska well all three games since arriving in Lawrence.

The play: Kansas plus 23 for a medium bet

Indiana is not a very good football team but they were going through a boatload of distractions the last couple of weeks in losses to Southern Illy and UConn... and now we get added value with a healthy Powers likely to get the nod today against Wisky. Note Hoosier SU wins in 2001 and 2002 as a dog, as well as cover in Madison last fall (three straight covers, 2 SU wins all as dog)... why not today against youthful Wisky team playing first road Big Ten game in Bielema era.

The play: Indiana plus 11.5 for a medium bet

Note Mich State impressive ATS marks as big fave vs. Illy. Note Illy hapless. Only worry is MSU hang-over after unbeaten season out window after choke last week in the rain.

The play: Mich State -25.5 for a small bet

Lean to Miami FLA cause I think Houston isn't very good but they ran right by me in this one; I had thought they might open it less than 14 - UM DD-fave record is awful too; not even sure a bye will help. Pass.

This one really got away; I was lucky to lay 2 touchdowns on Monday afternoon, but I'm not sure if Toledo can keep this one within three scores - the Rockets were very fortunate to beat Kansas and this is a big revenger for Pitt, who was ranked No. 9 in 2003 when they lost in the Glass Bowl. The return visit brings much pain.

The play: Pitt -14 for a medium bet

Lean to DUke but number got away.

I like the progress of Patterson and Cuse but the Cowpoke defense will keep this one close enough for them to find a way to win it on the field. I think this will come down before kickoff.

The play: Wyoming plus 5 for a small bet

Lots of people on both La Tech and Clemson, and not sure why. I've heard compelling arguments for both sides. If Clemson throws in their yearly shitter, the Dawgs can keep it close but they've been very impressive thus far, even in the loss at BC they were the superior team.

Not sure why the wanted to make UConn the favorite - the Husky offense was a model of inefficiency at Indiana last week, and that's one of the worst defenses in the BCS. Navy's loss last week usually serves as a good motivating tool, the Middies have a good ATS mark in these spots. Missed the '3' here or it would be a big bet.

THe play: Navy plus 2 for a medium bet - if it goes up, give me some plus-3 as well
Navy plus 110 ML for a small bet

No opinion Rice/Army; would have 'dog' or no one, who is Army to ever lay DD's?

Wow, when was the last time BG caught nearly a touchdown to Ohio U? Won and covered last three times vs. OU, all as 14 or more faves. OU 4-10 SU and 3-11 ATS L14 games in the series and BG has scored 72 and 41 points in their last two trips to Athens. If it gets to '7', I'll be on the 'dog', pending the status of Turner, who I had heard will play.

Air Force should roll, as that offense has been in good form early on, with great senior leader running the show. But New Mexico grew up a lot last week in dispatching of DD-fave UTEP, and I expect a good road effort today. Note Lobo covered 7 of 11 vs. AFA and are 13-3 ATS in last 16 MWC roadies (12-4 SU), so they should be ready to play.

Not sure if Purdue is the worst 4-0 BCS team or not but we'll find out today. I don't see the Boilers having a sniff of slowing down Quinn and Irish receivers if the track is fast (check South Bend weather), but they might be able to manufacture enough points for a cover. Pending weather and the chance to take more than 14, could be a 'dog' play coming here.

Also not sure who Kansas State is to start laying points on the road. THey've played one decent team (U of L) and did very little against a Cardinal team that was in 'let-down' mode after big Miami win. K-State is 6-18 in its last 24 road openers, and with four games in comfy Manhattan, not sure how they'll play in Waco against Bear team that continues to shoot itself in the foot with stupid penalties. Morriss big edge in coaching here, too. Thanks to Dr. Bob and his followers for making the wrong side favored.

The plays: Baylor plus 1.5 for a medium bet
Baylor plus 105 for a small bet

Unquestionably, Utah State and Idaho are playing in the least important game of the season not involving a Sun Belt team. I've lost more money than I care to count on both pieces of shit this year. Pass.

Gut tells me that Utah runs Boise off the field but the Broncos will likely be ready for this one, wanting to play it for years. But they are 0-5 SU and 1-3-1 as road dogs in last few years in this role. Will sit til halftime, then count on Denny or someone else with the stones enough to watch Gary Bender on the Versus/Outdoor Life Network, haha...

Don't think USC has any business laying 17 to an athletic Coug defense who will be stoked to entertain another high-profile guest. Still, Wazzou just 4-9 ATS last 13 home conf games, USC had 745 (!) yards last year, and have already played in tough atmospheres in Fayetteville and Tucson already in 06. Pass.

Cal is in "steamroll mode" at this point. I like the Golden Bears, and with that first loss, they are still flying under the radar. Tedford and Co. rolled up 42 first-half points in each of first two games. Revenger for Cal, who surprisingly lost at home as DD-fave in 05. Lay it.

The play: Cal -9 for a big bet

Yes, Stanford smells like Thursday's garbage but cannot pass up 23 points against a UCLA team that exposed in many ways in the last 32 minutes at Washington last week. Edwards is capable enough to at least lead them to a cover. Stanford 12-4-2 ATS since 88 in series.

THe play: Stanford plus 23.5 for a medium bet

Note the revenge angle in Gainesville but I think Alabama has enough talent to keep it close on the field, and with Florida having many biggies coming up in the next month, would think Urban would be satisfied with a win and to get out healthy. Though at Utah, in 2 revenge games in 04 (Ayyunem and New Mexico), they won and covered in revenge spots. That, and Bama's tough-luck loss in a game they basically dominated last week makes me wonder their mental state. Pass.

Wow, trying to make Cincinnati lay DD's in a rivalry game? Dog has gotten money 8 of last 12 and this is the oldest rivalrly west of the Alleghenys. I'll take a stab at the Red Cocks on principle alone.

The play: Miami O plus 11 for a small bet

Kentucky getting some players back from injury, and CMU is banged up. But the Chips have already played BC tough and been to the Big House this season, so 60,000 blue-bloods at Commonwealth shouldn't intimidate them too much. Well-coached Chips should play hard. The Cats lost to a MAC team last time (2004, Ohio, -13.5, 28-16) and not sure they should be laying this kind of wood, even if it is CMU's first of just two games on grass all season.

The play: Central plus 9 for a small bet

Passing Diego/Jose, but impressed with steady progression of Jose.

There are several people I respect immensely on Ball State this weekend. If you remember, I think Testy had the biggest upset of the season last year in respect to the line, winning 31-17 in DeKalb as a 29-point dog. That was a total head-scratcher, as Ball had shown nothing all season and they thoroughly dominated every phase of the game. Revenge best served cold, even on the road. Ball can't stop anyone through the air, and opponents from Purdue to North Dakota State (!) are shattering records on a weekly basis. Wolfe is the main gun in NIU arsenal but if NDST can do that to Ball defense, I think Horvath is capable.

The play: No Illy -6 for a medium bet

Note LSU's tremendous ATS record vs. Messy State last few years but will not lay it, as the 'Dogs finally got off the schnide in a good win last time at U-ab in first roadie. Perhaps Croom's boys like road better than Starkvuhl? Pass; lean to OVER the low total, think MSU good for 10 or so...

Tech's offense was so bad it caused Mike Leach to say it was "the worst offensive execution I've ever seen" after TCU loss. Can't lay it but would hate to try and beat him after they got an extra week to tune-up with a I-AA last week. Also note 13-4 Tech ATS record as of late vs. Ayyunem. Big-time Big 12 South game for both teams.

Not sure who Jorja is to lay 18.5 to anyone in the SEC after the stinker they put up last week. Their offense looked woeful at best for 55 minutes and now a freshman QB making his first road league start (regardless of Stratton or Cox) has to lay this number. Principle bet.

THe play: Ole Piss plus 18.5

Mizzou is Team Chemistry at this point, buying into that from Pinkel. Daniels a capable replacement for do-everything Smith, which caused teammates to stand and watch his marvels. Still, Mizzou paying an extra price for now being noticed a little by national media, and you get to lay more than you should today for it. Buffs resurgent last week but devastating loss can't be good for their psyche. More 'zen' from the master, Hawkins??? Want to watch a half.

When has Vandy ever laid 34? Pass.

Big-time revenger for Ga Tech, who loves these DD-road dog spots (13-6 last 19 ATS) and look at some of Ball's biggest covers under center... at FSU in 03 (plus 23, lose 14-13), at Maryland in 04 (plus 13, win 20-7), at Jorja in 04 (plus 15, lose 19-13), at Auburn plus 8 in 05 (win 23-14), and at Miami in 05 (plus 18, win 14-10)... He relishes being the dog and last year's score was a little misleading, in that VT scored a defensive and a special teams TD. Take the price and see what happens.

The play: Jorja Tech plus 10 for a small bet

Akron/Kent series entertaining to say the least. Not interested in Akron much, but they would be the only side I'd have. Note host is 1-7 last 8 ATS, as the schools are 23 short northeast Ohio miles apart.

Iowa has shown very little going into this one; not sure if it's because they're bad or because it's by design from mad scientist Ferentz, who will surely pull out all the stops today. Hawks 32-4 SU at home under Kirk, and remarkable 27-6-1 ATS... Host 7-2 ATS since 95 in this series and Iowa is 5-3 SU and 6-1-1 as home dog last 8 in that role, including three straight wins dating to 2003. None of it matters if Ohio State plays its best, which is very possible considering that this is maybe their last loseable game until the Michigan visit. Still, the Hawks are going to be a tougher test than Texas was, given their experience coming into this one. Tate makes the difference in the SU win (I Called for it in the summer, no reason to renege now).

The play: Iowa plus 7 for a medium bet. Will take some 7.5 if it ever pops up, which I don't think will happen

Michigan is a supremely gifted bunch that appears ready to make some national noise this season. Michigan is 8-3 ATS last 11 Big 10 roadies and the host is 5-14 in this series. It's Minny's biggest game, despite seemingly never winning. Last season Mason and Co. got over the hump in the Big House and this is UM's second big revenge roadie in a row (they've already offed Notre Dame), so not scared to lay the increased tariff here. Men vs. Boys.

The play: Michigan -9.5 for a big bet

Memphis never beats UT but is 6-0 ATS last six and 12-4 as a home dog since 98. Firing Joe Lee Dunn might not have been the right thing, as from what I heard, it was more offense that did in the Tigers in deceptive (closer than score) loss at East Carolina last time. See if the bye helps or hurts. Looks a little high, but passing.

SMU laying points on the road? Will take 3 on principle alone, as Tulane sure to be super-motivated in first game back in Superdome. I had the Saints Monday, why not go back to the motivational well. "Renew Orleans", this is for you, sir...

THe play: Tulane plus 3 even money for a small bet

NM State got early respect here and with Palmer's penchant for mistakes, still can't play against host Miners after rough loss in Albuquerque last week. Could get ugly against Shallow Hal.

Note host's success (8-1 since early 90s) in this series but Colorado State always a tough game after Lubick bye (17-4 ATS since 86) and the price is overly inflated here, even though CSU has shown little so far this season while Fresno has had at least moments of solid play. Pass.

Find out who Billy Walters is betting in the Reno/Vegas game. Simple as that, you got your winner. I like the 'dog' myself, based on power ratings. But I'll pass for now.

Lean to fave according to numbers in Zona, but not sure if they are all that right on Washington (or if they ARE right, and everyone else just flew on by me, because I had Huskies pretty well pegged early on, and they even got my money last week in easy dog win over UCLA)... pass. Note 'dog' is 10-2 since 92 in this series ATS.

Oregon playing with chip on shoulder after world thinks it cheated Oklahoma, as Bellotti playing the "they don't think we deserve it" card to his team and local media. Line has shifted, and I'm not sure of anything at this point, but will take a moneyline stab on Ducks off the bye.

The play: Oregon plus 110 for a small bet

In the shit games, my power ratings support the following: Eastern Michigan plus 8.5 (QB situation tenuous, so I pass); Fla Intl (minus-9, no bet unless it gets below 7 again - note Arky State hung 61 on them last year after a mountain of turnovers, Golden Panthers a tough-luck 0-4 start); Troy (made UAB 2, missed the number so passing); Middle Tenny (made it 2, not far enough to bet either side, especially with Middle's woes vs. UNT in the past); and Monroe -13.5 (right at number, who is Monroe to lay 14 to anyone though???).... pass.

Mynly two big bets before the halftimes (Cal, Mich) are laying more than a TD on the road in conference games. Look where that got us with Auburn - and last night's game was no picnic either. Careful, boys...

Good luck gents!

Rexy, make lots of money today, OK? Value is off Nebraska at -23, so I don't blame you for taking Kansas there. I had to chuckle though at your statement, "Kansas has two capable QBs." I've seen Kansas play twice this year and I'm wondering if we are talking about the same team?
Nice card CKR and good luck to you.

I'm with Sooner though...Meier had 5 TO's all by himself vs sad Toledo...not what I consider capable. Jayhawks won't get to 10 today IMO.

Your card looks solid, really liking CAL with you this afternoon!!!!!!

Can you believe Vandy favored by 34? Hope we make alot of money today!!!!!

Denny: When you want to give me 23 points, I consider Barmann and Meier "capable"

This is the same team that beat the piss of of the Shitters by 25 last year.
Thanks to the rest of ya's as well by the way...

Clark: I never thought I'd see the day when they laid 34, hgahaha... Guess the world figgered out what Temple's true power rating should be...
Funny thing, last night I get this pop up from Don Best telling all about their great new customer service etc., always someone there to help you etc. Now the fucking site is down at 11:15 a.m. Sat morning right at the most critical time. Fucking ass clowns.
CollegeKingRex said:
Denny: When you want to give me 23 points, I consider Barmann and Meier "capable"

This is the same team that beat the piss of of the Shitters by 25 last year.

It's not the same D KU had last year and it def. isn't the same Shitters as you refer to them. 23 is a lot of pts. but the Corn has rolled 3 teams in a row at home. KU is a little step up from those teams, so we'll see. Personally, I'm not betting either way.
Rex - i absolutely love the N'Western pick, and i'm thinking about adding it quick into my own thread.....morelli should be good for a few picks today and for some reason N'Western always finds a way to play PSU tough
Tim: Weird deal. My Don Best just went out a sec ago, funny, I saw that same cust service bullshit an hour ago.

We have about 8 in the office, roughly half of them are working, other half on fritz. What a deal, right in the middle of all these damn moves....

Thanks fellas, GL today...
Man they just pounded the shit out of Navy and Toledo under. Mine is working again but it took 20 minutes to get it back up. (sounds like a Cialis commercial lol...)
See they hit Oregon State, are you buying that Rex or you just gonna go more on Cal?
I'm going to bet Cal for some more probably. That's the way I was taught to do it, especially if i believe in my number.

RickyB: Please stop being lazy. Read the thread if you want my thoughts; I give thoughts on every game.

GL today fellas.
We ride together on almost all of those dogs CKR.
Best of luck for a BIG day.:cheers:
4-4 small, 5-3 medium and 2-0 big posted. Had a big bet on Ohio State at halftime to get out of some of that, and despite Mishitgan being DOMINANT, feel very fortunate to get the cover there, backdoor was WIIDDDEEEE open after the onside kick and ensuing first-and-goal.

Now 7-1 on Saturday big bets, always nice to get two big road faves in there, and the moneyline winners on Oregon, Baylor and Navy basically offset all the juice, so all in all, a good day. Still only one losing week this season, and that was for peanuts.

This is how it's supposed to go.

Now let's see if a few years down here in the biz ain't helped tighten my lines a little. Traditionally, I struggle as a bettor in October. I'd like to think that will change this year because of my diligence and persistence. We'll see...

I Think It Will Also Would Like To Add 2 Things:
Great Work This Week
post Your Plays In Bold Dammit Hahahahha
Great run rex.........

But yeah seriously the end, please sum up your plays by the following:

Use Color Coding and appropriate font size as well:

- Alphabetical order

- Time of game start

- Strength of play in BOLD Letters

- Average offensive line size

Sorting your plays in this matter will help me read your post.

:drink: :drink:
haha Hawaiiguy, my thoughts exactly.

I don't have time for all that nonsense. Read it or don't. But don't be lazy and expect me to do ALL the work for you.
I love it that you are kickin ass Rex.........dont remember if it was 2 years or 3 ago you had a monster year and I was all over it.

Dont post your shit in bold.....ur old school baby! ~~~~~~thanks for the winners and here is a freebie for ya...................

Dodgers +125 Game 1