CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Off a 7-4-1 week last week (or thereabouts) with the big plays all doing well, but 0-1 this week as I swung and missed at the Beavers (first on the football field, then at the bars) on Thursday night... I guess that constitutes 0-2, hahaha...
Made some of these plays early in the week and locked in lines (some good, some bad)...
No opinion in Huntingturd, but remember that WVU's last trip there, they scored 92 points. Prolly a shade under that today.
What's all this Northwestern love about? I know Reno got it handed to them last week but Nebraska is prolly gonna be a good football team by the time it's said and done... Pass.
Speaking of the Huskers - always tough to give Wake more than a TD under Grobe at home - especially with NU in the middle of the biggest non-con sandwich anyone might have ANYWHERE all season. But I watched good parts of both of those games and unless Reno is worse than I thought or BC is better, then the dominance I saw on the line of scrimmage by BC and Nebraska was unmistakeable. Can't take Wake without watching a half.
Was salivating at the possibility of seeing DDs with Miami after Oklahoma beat North Texas worse than they woulda beat Dodge's Southlake Carroll team last week - and lo and behold it popped up. Big bet on Canes last week and I think they continue to fly under the radar until they go out and win today on the field. The defense will just be too much for Oklahoma to overcome.
The Hurricane ground attack should pose problems for the Sooners, who have six new starters among their front seven and weren’t tested by North Texas. The dynamic duo of James and Cooper gives Miami an opportunity to control the game and keep the OU offense off the field. The Hurricanes had several dropped passes against Marshall, and Shields’ absence meant the Thundering Herd was able to focus on Leggett and not let him loose, particularly on the short slants and screens thrown to him. With Shields back, Freeman could well be more successful.
In a dogfight, the Canes prevail in a low-scoring affair.
The play: Miami plus 11 for a big bet
They want to make Minnesota continue to lay ridiculous tariffs, I'll bite again. Miami O has two extra days to prepare and got a nice win in Muncie. I took 10 here and wanted more but it won't go up, I'm afraid. Minny improves, but not enough to cover.
The play: Miami O plus 10 for a small bet
Temple and Barfalo tangle in Philly in this year's edition of the Shit Bowl. Last season, UB got a nice home win. But I like the revenge angle for the Owls this time. THey are at home (so to speak) and looked decent at times against Navy last week. Barfalo got ram-rodded in Piscataway, not ever forcing Rutgers to punt. Talent-wise, Temple is just better. Younger - but better. I like what their coach is doing.
The play: Temple -3.5 for a medium bet.
No real opinion in Charlottesville or Columbus.
Vandy 9-2-1 ATS last 12 vs. Bammer. They're 5-0 ATS Game 2 under Johnson, one of my favorite coaches to bet catching points. Yes, under Saban you are going to see some new and different things on offense from Bammer. But I don't forsee Alabama getting any pressure on Vandy QB Chris Nickson. Getting to the quarterback was a problem last year for the Tide, and against a decent offensive line like Vandy's - especially against a mobile quarterback (also an Alabama product) - things should be hard for them. Unlike last year, when Vandy lost 13-10, this is a more balanced offense. Vandy receiver Earl Bennett is perhaps THE best in the nation and an All-America candidate by most, and he had 13 catches for 223 yards and three scores in the opener. There's no stopping him today. Vandy on the field...
THe play: Vandy plus 3.5 and ML for a combined big bet.
Not sure where the linemaker came up with Central being the favorite at home today. Yes, Toledo proved they can't tackle last week and they made tons of mistakes but that was Purdue. This is a CMU team that was embarassed in Lawrence - sans 3 big draft choices from 2006. They still have a way's to go.
The play: Toledo ML small.
B.G went to Minneapolis and got a nice win to start the season. It will be a tall task to try to stop the Mishitgan State ground game, but let's put it like this - BG ain't U-ab. They'll compete.
The play: BG plus 18 for a small bet
Rice/Baylor - What to do? Baylor not gonna be very good in a rebuilding year and Rice got 3rd new coach in 3 years and lost to a I-AA in the opener. Pass
Wyoming looks like it might be a MWC contender after last week's blasting of Virginia. I had Utah State against them last year and was in the game after a defensive touchdown - of course Wyoming got the cash EASY - and it looks like this number is awfully cheap but the Aggies HAVE improved and could have won last week. Pass.
Why all the K-State love? Jose lost its running back but Arizona State is gonna be good. An obvious flat spot for K-State and I'll take my points.
The play: San Jose plus 18 for a small bet.
I was on Cal for a big bet last week - this week the situation is reversed. Colly State coming off a tough OT loss to Colorado in which they just needed to make one more play to win it. Hanie is a capable quarterback and the Rams have more balance on offense than Tennessee. That might keep the Cal offense on the sidelines - and the ball away from DeSean Jackson. Letdown imminent for Cal here and a touchdown win, I'm sure Tedford would take it right now.
The play: Colly State plus 14 for a medium bet.
Ole Miss played well for a half at Memphis but a 14-point swing was the key to them winning. I don't see them matching up with a Missouri team that outgained them by almost 300 yards last season. Ole Miss 1-8 Week 2 lately, and 1-7 after playing Memphis ATS. Laying less than a touchdown seems wise to me.
The play: Missouri -5.5 and -6 for a combined medium bet
Not interested in the O'Brien Bowl; need to see each team play another game.
Ball goes to Pissalanti in search of a win in its MAC West opener after a heartbreaker went to Miami 9 days back. This line seems cheap, and here's a couple of reasons why: Ball State's defense hasn't allowed more than 17 points in its past four MAC games - the Cardinals have a 3-1 record in those contests. Eastern Michigan was the lowest-scoring team in the MAC last year at 13.9 points per game, and the Eagles managed just three in their opener last week. Twice last week against Miami, the Cardinals kept the RedHawks from scoring after getting a first down inside the 10-yard line. It could be tough for EMU to score enough to stay inside the number against a Ball offense that is better than what it showed last week.
The play: Ball -3.5 for a big bet
I'm not sure why Oregon is getting all of this love. Sure, Michigan isn't as good as previously hyped, but the line here was going to be close to two touchdowns if they had held off Appy State last week. They were still able to outstat the Mountaineers; something Oregon did NOT do despite getting the money against Houston. The Oregon front seven can be shoved around and blown past. Mike Hart has his way today, and this should be a very, very angry team that plays physical from the opening kick. Lay less than a touchdown (hell, I laid more when it first came out).
The play: Michigan -8 for a medium bet. Michigan -6.5 for a medium bet. (big bet total).
Locker looked great last week against sorry Syracuse in the last 3 quarters, Boise is 5-10-1 ATS as a visitor as of late - and have lost 12 straight road games to BCS foes. While it’s going to be tough for the Huskies to throw on a good Boise State secondary, they will run the ball because of a nice size advantage on the interior. That will create space for Rankin. Locker’s physical running style is a new dimension to the Husky offense that will wear out the Boise D in the second half. I don't think Tharp is good enough to exploit a young Washington secondary.
The play: Washington plus 3 and ML for a medium bet.
No opinion in College Station.
U-ab is awful. Noles outplayed Clemson for 2 quarters the other night. Short week but they'll have their way in putting up 60-plus here.
The play: Florida State -34 for a big bet.
Dr. Bob, The Gold Sheet and some of CTG's finest are on South Carolina here. One question: WHY?
Georgia looked great last week against a good offense in Oklahoma State. TOday, they face a mediocre one at best. The defense was all over the field and Matthew Stafford directed the offense in a clean game. Georgia won last year's matchup 18-0 and has won five straight and eight of the last ten. The Gamecock O-line is going to get, abused by a Georgia defensive front seven that was all over the place against the Cowboys. CollegeFootballNews said it best: "Georgia can make plays in the South Carolina backfield, but South Carolina can't make plays in the Georgia backfield."
Mitchell should show rust off the suspension and I expect this to get ugly early.
The play: Jorja -3.5 for a big bet.
Notre Dame and Miami catching DD's the same week? Are the Irish really that bad? I know I picked Penn State to win the Big 10 but I can't make them lay this price to Notre Dame - not now, and not ever. Pass.
Air Force getting a depleted Utah team that could not do anything on offense with Grady at QB. 'Dog' rules the roost in this rivalry series and AFA looked solid last week in first game under a new coach.
The play: Air FOrce plus 8 for a medium play.
East Carolina looked solid last week and North Carolina is young. They also lost a couple to injury and the Pirates are an ATS machine under Skippy.
The play: ECU -4 medium.
I took a flier on Brigham Young (this game reminds me of their trip to BC last year, with the price being where it is); it could easily go to OT and UCLA didn't exactly impress against sorry Stanford.
The play: BYU plus 7.5 and ML small each (medium total)
Not interested in laying it with Tenny at home, even though I made the game 13 - rough road trip, it will be hot and they have Florida next.
Texas Christian I made right at the number. The stud D-Lineman is going to play but they are missing a RB - you need to have all of your guys at the disposal against a team as talented as Texas. Passing for now. Wanting to take 10 or more.
How can anyone be enthused about betting Messy State/Tulane?
Kent/Kentucky promises to be high-scoring. The Flash offense should be able to move it and HC Martin will want to play well in his return to Rexington. Meanwhile, expect UK's offense to continue to excel early against overmatched defenses.
The play: OVER 52.5 for a big bet
No opinion on Texas tech - big win Monday overinflated this price to where I can't lay it.
I don't know whether I overvalue SDST or took down Wazzou too much after they got thrashed by Wisconsin last week but I took 14 with the dog here in a game I made 9. Nothing big; I have to see the Spartans play one first.
The play: SDST plus 14 small
GSFW's laying almost four touchdowns on the road? You'd get laughed out of the building laying that 2-3 years ago. But Colt vs. an overmatched defense spells trouble. I'll pass for now but recognize they should get the money.
Not interested in laying more than 3 scores with Iowa these days, but note Ferentz's historical record before last year in home fave DD spots. Pass.
Lean to Western Mishitgan tonight as Hoosiers have first road game under Lynch and it won't be easy winning in Kalamazoo.
Not sure where all this South Florida love came from either. Auburn persevered last week and at home, should win by at least a touchdown. I only made it 11 so won't be betting big but this line came down to give me a play.
The bet: Auburn -6.5 for a medium bet
What a game developing in Baton Rouge tonight. As long as the Hokies can win the turnover battle, they have a shot. Mississippi State couldn't hang on to the ball and it allowed the Tiger offense score most of its points from close range. The LSU attack still needs to prove it can be consistent, and if the Hokies don't screw up, play ball control offense, and force LSU to go on long drives, this will be close throughout. Points are at a premium in low-scoring games, and this figures to be one. Beamer is 5-0 as a 'dog since 2004. Got this one right before Dr. Bob did...
The play: Va Tech plus 12.5 for a medium bet and UNDER 38.5 for a medium bet
No opinion in Battle of New Mexico but with the Lobos dominating the stats last week, I think they offer value at less than 7 and might lay it small later on.
Beware of a power outage (!) in Vegas later on tonight - that's what happened last time Wisky backers were about to cash on their tickets when playing UNLV - before the lights went out, rendering the bets 'no action'...
Arizona State has an abundance of talent and should really outclass Colorado tonight. This was one I bet on Monday and it's a good thing; I'm not sure I recommend laying 15.5... ASU 12-3 ATS in Tempe vs. non-Pac 10 foes.
The play: Arizona State -13.5 small
Strictly a numbers and look-ahead play in Gainesville.
The bet: Troy plus 27 small
Numbers play in Lafayette
The bet: Ohio -1 small
Not interested in any of the other shit games.
GL!
:cheers:
Made some of these plays early in the week and locked in lines (some good, some bad)...
No opinion in Huntingturd, but remember that WVU's last trip there, they scored 92 points. Prolly a shade under that today.
What's all this Northwestern love about? I know Reno got it handed to them last week but Nebraska is prolly gonna be a good football team by the time it's said and done... Pass.
Speaking of the Huskers - always tough to give Wake more than a TD under Grobe at home - especially with NU in the middle of the biggest non-con sandwich anyone might have ANYWHERE all season. But I watched good parts of both of those games and unless Reno is worse than I thought or BC is better, then the dominance I saw on the line of scrimmage by BC and Nebraska was unmistakeable. Can't take Wake without watching a half.
Was salivating at the possibility of seeing DDs with Miami after Oklahoma beat North Texas worse than they woulda beat Dodge's Southlake Carroll team last week - and lo and behold it popped up. Big bet on Canes last week and I think they continue to fly under the radar until they go out and win today on the field. The defense will just be too much for Oklahoma to overcome.
The Hurricane ground attack should pose problems for the Sooners, who have six new starters among their front seven and weren’t tested by North Texas. The dynamic duo of James and Cooper gives Miami an opportunity to control the game and keep the OU offense off the field. The Hurricanes had several dropped passes against Marshall, and Shields’ absence meant the Thundering Herd was able to focus on Leggett and not let him loose, particularly on the short slants and screens thrown to him. With Shields back, Freeman could well be more successful.
In a dogfight, the Canes prevail in a low-scoring affair.
The play: Miami plus 11 for a big bet
They want to make Minnesota continue to lay ridiculous tariffs, I'll bite again. Miami O has two extra days to prepare and got a nice win in Muncie. I took 10 here and wanted more but it won't go up, I'm afraid. Minny improves, but not enough to cover.
The play: Miami O plus 10 for a small bet
Temple and Barfalo tangle in Philly in this year's edition of the Shit Bowl. Last season, UB got a nice home win. But I like the revenge angle for the Owls this time. THey are at home (so to speak) and looked decent at times against Navy last week. Barfalo got ram-rodded in Piscataway, not ever forcing Rutgers to punt. Talent-wise, Temple is just better. Younger - but better. I like what their coach is doing.
The play: Temple -3.5 for a medium bet.
No real opinion in Charlottesville or Columbus.
Vandy 9-2-1 ATS last 12 vs. Bammer. They're 5-0 ATS Game 2 under Johnson, one of my favorite coaches to bet catching points. Yes, under Saban you are going to see some new and different things on offense from Bammer. But I don't forsee Alabama getting any pressure on Vandy QB Chris Nickson. Getting to the quarterback was a problem last year for the Tide, and against a decent offensive line like Vandy's - especially against a mobile quarterback (also an Alabama product) - things should be hard for them. Unlike last year, when Vandy lost 13-10, this is a more balanced offense. Vandy receiver Earl Bennett is perhaps THE best in the nation and an All-America candidate by most, and he had 13 catches for 223 yards and three scores in the opener. There's no stopping him today. Vandy on the field...
THe play: Vandy plus 3.5 and ML for a combined big bet.
Not sure where the linemaker came up with Central being the favorite at home today. Yes, Toledo proved they can't tackle last week and they made tons of mistakes but that was Purdue. This is a CMU team that was embarassed in Lawrence - sans 3 big draft choices from 2006. They still have a way's to go.
The play: Toledo ML small.
B.G went to Minneapolis and got a nice win to start the season. It will be a tall task to try to stop the Mishitgan State ground game, but let's put it like this - BG ain't U-ab. They'll compete.
The play: BG plus 18 for a small bet
Rice/Baylor - What to do? Baylor not gonna be very good in a rebuilding year and Rice got 3rd new coach in 3 years and lost to a I-AA in the opener. Pass
Wyoming looks like it might be a MWC contender after last week's blasting of Virginia. I had Utah State against them last year and was in the game after a defensive touchdown - of course Wyoming got the cash EASY - and it looks like this number is awfully cheap but the Aggies HAVE improved and could have won last week. Pass.
Why all the K-State love? Jose lost its running back but Arizona State is gonna be good. An obvious flat spot for K-State and I'll take my points.
The play: San Jose plus 18 for a small bet.
I was on Cal for a big bet last week - this week the situation is reversed. Colly State coming off a tough OT loss to Colorado in which they just needed to make one more play to win it. Hanie is a capable quarterback and the Rams have more balance on offense than Tennessee. That might keep the Cal offense on the sidelines - and the ball away from DeSean Jackson. Letdown imminent for Cal here and a touchdown win, I'm sure Tedford would take it right now.
The play: Colly State plus 14 for a medium bet.
Ole Miss played well for a half at Memphis but a 14-point swing was the key to them winning. I don't see them matching up with a Missouri team that outgained them by almost 300 yards last season. Ole Miss 1-8 Week 2 lately, and 1-7 after playing Memphis ATS. Laying less than a touchdown seems wise to me.
The play: Missouri -5.5 and -6 for a combined medium bet
Not interested in the O'Brien Bowl; need to see each team play another game.
Ball goes to Pissalanti in search of a win in its MAC West opener after a heartbreaker went to Miami 9 days back. This line seems cheap, and here's a couple of reasons why: Ball State's defense hasn't allowed more than 17 points in its past four MAC games - the Cardinals have a 3-1 record in those contests. Eastern Michigan was the lowest-scoring team in the MAC last year at 13.9 points per game, and the Eagles managed just three in their opener last week. Twice last week against Miami, the Cardinals kept the RedHawks from scoring after getting a first down inside the 10-yard line. It could be tough for EMU to score enough to stay inside the number against a Ball offense that is better than what it showed last week.
The play: Ball -3.5 for a big bet
I'm not sure why Oregon is getting all of this love. Sure, Michigan isn't as good as previously hyped, but the line here was going to be close to two touchdowns if they had held off Appy State last week. They were still able to outstat the Mountaineers; something Oregon did NOT do despite getting the money against Houston. The Oregon front seven can be shoved around and blown past. Mike Hart has his way today, and this should be a very, very angry team that plays physical from the opening kick. Lay less than a touchdown (hell, I laid more when it first came out).
The play: Michigan -8 for a medium bet. Michigan -6.5 for a medium bet. (big bet total).
Locker looked great last week against sorry Syracuse in the last 3 quarters, Boise is 5-10-1 ATS as a visitor as of late - and have lost 12 straight road games to BCS foes. While it’s going to be tough for the Huskies to throw on a good Boise State secondary, they will run the ball because of a nice size advantage on the interior. That will create space for Rankin. Locker’s physical running style is a new dimension to the Husky offense that will wear out the Boise D in the second half. I don't think Tharp is good enough to exploit a young Washington secondary.
The play: Washington plus 3 and ML for a medium bet.
No opinion in College Station.
U-ab is awful. Noles outplayed Clemson for 2 quarters the other night. Short week but they'll have their way in putting up 60-plus here.
The play: Florida State -34 for a big bet.
Dr. Bob, The Gold Sheet and some of CTG's finest are on South Carolina here. One question: WHY?
Georgia looked great last week against a good offense in Oklahoma State. TOday, they face a mediocre one at best. The defense was all over the field and Matthew Stafford directed the offense in a clean game. Georgia won last year's matchup 18-0 and has won five straight and eight of the last ten. The Gamecock O-line is going to get, abused by a Georgia defensive front seven that was all over the place against the Cowboys. CollegeFootballNews said it best: "Georgia can make plays in the South Carolina backfield, but South Carolina can't make plays in the Georgia backfield."
Mitchell should show rust off the suspension and I expect this to get ugly early.
The play: Jorja -3.5 for a big bet.
Notre Dame and Miami catching DD's the same week? Are the Irish really that bad? I know I picked Penn State to win the Big 10 but I can't make them lay this price to Notre Dame - not now, and not ever. Pass.
Air Force getting a depleted Utah team that could not do anything on offense with Grady at QB. 'Dog' rules the roost in this rivalry series and AFA looked solid last week in first game under a new coach.
The play: Air FOrce plus 8 for a medium play.
East Carolina looked solid last week and North Carolina is young. They also lost a couple to injury and the Pirates are an ATS machine under Skippy.
The play: ECU -4 medium.
I took a flier on Brigham Young (this game reminds me of their trip to BC last year, with the price being where it is); it could easily go to OT and UCLA didn't exactly impress against sorry Stanford.
The play: BYU plus 7.5 and ML small each (medium total)
Not interested in laying it with Tenny at home, even though I made the game 13 - rough road trip, it will be hot and they have Florida next.
Texas Christian I made right at the number. The stud D-Lineman is going to play but they are missing a RB - you need to have all of your guys at the disposal against a team as talented as Texas. Passing for now. Wanting to take 10 or more.
How can anyone be enthused about betting Messy State/Tulane?
Kent/Kentucky promises to be high-scoring. The Flash offense should be able to move it and HC Martin will want to play well in his return to Rexington. Meanwhile, expect UK's offense to continue to excel early against overmatched defenses.
The play: OVER 52.5 for a big bet
No opinion on Texas tech - big win Monday overinflated this price to where I can't lay it.
I don't know whether I overvalue SDST or took down Wazzou too much after they got thrashed by Wisconsin last week but I took 14 with the dog here in a game I made 9. Nothing big; I have to see the Spartans play one first.
The play: SDST plus 14 small
GSFW's laying almost four touchdowns on the road? You'd get laughed out of the building laying that 2-3 years ago. But Colt vs. an overmatched defense spells trouble. I'll pass for now but recognize they should get the money.
Not interested in laying more than 3 scores with Iowa these days, but note Ferentz's historical record before last year in home fave DD spots. Pass.
Lean to Western Mishitgan tonight as Hoosiers have first road game under Lynch and it won't be easy winning in Kalamazoo.
Not sure where all this South Florida love came from either. Auburn persevered last week and at home, should win by at least a touchdown. I only made it 11 so won't be betting big but this line came down to give me a play.
The bet: Auburn -6.5 for a medium bet
What a game developing in Baton Rouge tonight. As long as the Hokies can win the turnover battle, they have a shot. Mississippi State couldn't hang on to the ball and it allowed the Tiger offense score most of its points from close range. The LSU attack still needs to prove it can be consistent, and if the Hokies don't screw up, play ball control offense, and force LSU to go on long drives, this will be close throughout. Points are at a premium in low-scoring games, and this figures to be one. Beamer is 5-0 as a 'dog since 2004. Got this one right before Dr. Bob did...
The play: Va Tech plus 12.5 for a medium bet and UNDER 38.5 for a medium bet
No opinion in Battle of New Mexico but with the Lobos dominating the stats last week, I think they offer value at less than 7 and might lay it small later on.
Beware of a power outage (!) in Vegas later on tonight - that's what happened last time Wisky backers were about to cash on their tickets when playing UNLV - before the lights went out, rendering the bets 'no action'...
Arizona State has an abundance of talent and should really outclass Colorado tonight. This was one I bet on Monday and it's a good thing; I'm not sure I recommend laying 15.5... ASU 12-3 ATS in Tempe vs. non-Pac 10 foes.
The play: Arizona State -13.5 small
Strictly a numbers and look-ahead play in Gainesville.
The bet: Troy plus 27 small
Numbers play in Lafayette
The bet: Ohio -1 small
Not interested in any of the other shit games.
GL!
:cheers:
