CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
A word about the card.
Twenty games Saturday... Yes, TWENTY... that we are not allowing people to parlay the side to the total. Gotta be some kind of record.
Good lord, it's like giving away money. Basically, bad news for the house. If the side is 40 percent (at generous places, normal going rate these days is 33 percent) of the total, then you are unable to parlay the fave to the over or the dog to the under - because of the correlated parlay. It stands a good chance to win (same theory applies to the baseball visitor/O and home team/U parlays)...
So with all these big numbers, hard finding a lot of games where I think the 'dog' has an outright chance to win - one of my problems when trying to bet on them is that I want them to be able to win...
To the weekend...
Worked out good last night with Steelers -1 in one of my rare Niffel plays last night.
I made Pitt higher tonight but can't pull the trigger; I'm a big fan of UC's coach and he sees this as a pivotal game in their program's development. They lost 38-20 at Pitt last year but were done in by two kick returns for touchdowns and a blocked punt that led to 3 (17 total points)... With most everyone back, and at home tonight, I expect a supreme effort. They might not win the game, but I would have Cincy or no one... OVER looked good at first but UC did shut out EKU last week and a friend of mine who went says their defense looks pretty solid and cohesive.
I was all over Virginia Tech earlier in the week and I made the game much higher. After doing more research, I am inclined to play the 'dog' and would do so if I didn't have UNC two points higher than the world is using. Bottom line, Carolina is an tough 'dog' at home. Virginia Tech is 7-1 as road favorite dating back to the start of 2004 - but the only spread loss came in Chapel Hill in 04. Hokies' QB Glennon makes his first road start still having plenty to prove. As long as Dailey can avoid turnovers, the angry Tar Heels should have enough to compete here throughout. Senior RB McGill was close to 100 yards and wideout Foster caught 11 passes for 120 yards. The 30-3 humiliation UNC suffered in Blacksburg at the end of last season could be motivation enough. Eye-opening stat of the day: The hosts are 6-0 ATS - and even more impressive 5-1 on the field - as conference home dogs of late.
Rutgers: See several writeups here, MULETIME said it basically the best, though...
The play: Rutgers -10.5 for a medium bet
I don't like NC State's team too much but Appy State isn't as bad as some MAC teams and I don't like Akron has much as some of these people on here. Fave or no one.
No opinion in Ann Arbor. Mich prolly laying too many but CMU isn't as good as Vandy so who knows.
Wake too low. Yes, QB is gone. But the replacement gets a great spot to break in, as this is Grobe's best team in six years against a piss-poor Duke team that was shut out by Richmond (!) last week.
The play: Wake -19.5 for a small bet
No opinion in Mizzou. Like fave a little bit but that line is awfully high.
I made Auburn 24.5. Question you have to ask, 1. Is Auburn that good? and that's certainly "YES", and 2. Can Missy State score? I say prolly not. But it is an SEC road game and they got LSU on deck. Might be a trucker for a half but Messy St will likely try throughout and could get the backdoor late. Pass.
Think there is some Purdue value here. The Boilers struggled with ISU last week (30-plus points???)... Yes, Miami is better than Indy State but they won't score 30 points unless Ryne Robinson returns 3-4 kicks for touchdowns. This Boiler offense, even without Ingraham, will get it into high gear again this week. Trends point to Purdue, too. Lay it.
The play: Purdue -17 for a small bet.
Biggest bet of the week comes in the early game. Louisville simply cannot be high enough. This is the biggest mismatch in all of college football this season - a powerful, explosive offense against the worst team in D-I this year, and perhaps, this century. I will be stunned if the Cards haven't got this one tucked in bed by halftime.
The play: Louisville -39.5 for a big bet.
Kent/Army. Bleh. Two teams that cost me money last week. Watching this one to get a better feel for both, but would think Army is right side...
Bammer looks a little high to me but not sure if I can count on Vandy to do much scoring against this defense, either. Pass.
I got the NIU/OU game right on the number. Strong trends favor NIU here and they are the cream of the MAC crop.
Wyoming made me look foolish and will hold back on them until I find out whether my number on them was way off or whether it was Utah State. Tough call with UVa's troubles last week.
MSU could be a little more eager to lay into a bad team this week after John L took it easy on his boys from Moscow. EMU doesn't bring much but does have a great receiver and two extra days to prep. Might still add favorite here but price is a little higher than I wanted to lay...
UCLA ought to beat Rice like a borrowed mule but the Owls did try hard in tough beat last week. UCLA proved a lot of us wrong, not sure if that was more Utah sluffing it off or UCLA taking it to them... letdown this time? Lot of points, again... pass.
If I can take 3 with Boston College I'm gonna prolly do it. They are at home, and with Clemson having FSU on deck, they might not show everything they've got. BC showed very little last week. Ryan is the question-mark, as he hasn't taken first-unit snaps all week.
Iowa just cannot be high enough against the Cuse. SHSU has a good writeup on this one I believe. I like Iowa a lot and even with the major revenger next week, this could be the best team in the Big 10 (all apologies to the Ohio and Michigan-based posters on the board). Lay it.
The play: Iowa -18.5 for a small bet.
Okie is no bargain but Washington's defense will really struggle against AP if it couldn't contain San Jose.
Notre Dame will likely gravitate up tomorrow. I think it could easily fall between 4 and 11, nothing would surprise me in that range... a close, hard-fought ND win is what I expect.
Tulsa will play hard and I have question-marks about the BYU offense, but I think you have to give credit to both their defense and the Zona defense. A nice game last week there and fun to watch the defenses shine in a BYU game lol...
Colorado State is tough for me to figure; I mentioned in a couple of threads, CU loses to I-AA in opener and looked awful in doing so. But 'dog' always does well in this series. Hawkins will meet mentor Koetter and ASU next week but to CU players (ex-Barnett guys), this one far more important. Passing until the half.
Buffalo is pretty damn bad having to go to OT to finish off Temple but just can't recommend laying four scores with a BG team that I don't think will be very good.
Florida has Tennessee on deck. Another classic spot where I don't know to bet on or against - usually Urban good about getting the cash in Year 2 of his program though, so won't be against.
Gonna have a small play on Tree. THey are not as bad as it looked last week and other team is not as good (that was Washington, remember)... Stanford returns all but one player and a good Pac-10 quarterback on an offense that covered seven of its last eight in 2005. Meanwhile, the Stanford defense will have something to prove after a poor showing last week, and it will look to take out frustrations on the Spartans. This is a road game but you could ride a moped from Palo Alto to San Jose. The Spartans have dropped four straight in this series by an average of 31 points. Lay it with the Trees.
THe play: Stanford -9.5 for a small bet
Passing Zona/LSU. Would only have 'dog', as LSU likely squarely focused on showdown in the plains next week.
Also passing on IU/Ball. Lean to fave at opening price of 2 1/2 but I like Ball's special teams, and their offense could really be good before it's said and done. OVER worth a look...
Screw Utah State. I need to see just how far off my rating is on them. Now I got Arkansas -29, no idea if that's close or not but at least it's close to the number this week lol.
Toledo laying too many in Kalamazoo. I won't bet the 'dog' because I think their coach is overrated and not very good, fat man definitely worth 4-6 points in this matchup... WMU's QB situation is a mess as well. Pass.
Took Vegas earlier this week at plus three-scores. Iowa State wary of return trip to Iowa City seven days after this one while the Rebs come off a strong win in I-AA opener.... Hinds is the real-deal and think Reb pass defense will contain Meyer and Co. Key is to slow the 'Clone ground game. Price too high.
The play: Vegas plus 14.5 for medium bet.
Air Force one of the more interesting bets. Tenny has Florida on deck, coming off dominant win over Cal that will later show Cal is not that bad, nor the Vols that good.... Vols are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as favorites of 10 or more and Air Force boasting is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a dog in its first road game. Line inflated due to last week but I like the AFA offense to compete here, and keep the clock running to shorten the game.
The play: Air Force plus 20 for a medium bet
Think Wazzou is better than we saw last week, and Idaho prolly not as good - though I do like the Vandals and want value later this year with "E" on the sidelines and a lot of good players Holt brought in....
Don't see all the Houston hype. They're gonna try to lay 2 touchdowns again? I made this game 10 and I think Tulane is better than most want to concede. Team Katrina has had a year to heal and I expect a great effort in their opener. I'm a Ricard fan and I think he carves up this UH defense. If Rice can score 30 in two quarters, what will this bunch do?
The play: Tulane plus 14 for a medium bet
East Carolina has been mentioned in every service tout on the board except for Dr. Bob. I made that game 5 1/2 so a little lower but big revenge for U-ab after the 'Rats kept them from bowling last fall. Pass.
Cal is the other half of the Tennessee equasion. And with Minny winning like they did at Kant last week, it really throws the line out of whack. Let's see what the Gophers do against a real defense that will be seething this week. I have Cal favored 16 here, so this looks like a gift to me. Lay it.
The play: Cal -7 for a big bet.
So Car failed to convince me that they've got much on offense after their struggles in Starkvul. Jorja is still the more talented bunch and I expect a good effort after the home struggle last fall. Lay the small price with the 'Dogs.
THe play: Jorja -3 for a small bet
Ohio State is the better team, especially without the Texas CB... Everyone has an opinion about it, mine is that it will likely be a low-scoring game. By no means am I comparing Smith to Young, but this likes a role-reversal in teams this year, as Texas took a game it had no business winning and somehow escaping the 'Shoe with a win. This time, OSU might find itself in the same spot, with no business winning. But I don't think so. Their performance against Northern early last week was very businesslike and impressive to me. I think they handle business in Austin by a touchdown or 10 points.
The play: Ohio State plus 2.5 for a small bet
Pass the New Mex/New Mex State fiasco.
Laid 6 with Texas Tech early in the week. Harrell has already been in the system for a couple of seasons. This could be a neutral setting, as the Sun Bowl is only 345 miles from Lubbock. In back-to-back winning seasons UTEP has been overmatched on defense against the better teams they have faced. Size is a real issue here, with the size of those Tech receivers overmatching a small Miner secondary, one that allowed
80% completions and 9.2 yards per pass attempt at San Diego State last week against a backup. What will Harrell do?
The play: Tech -6 for a medium bet
Oregon/Fresno: Cannot wait to watch. Will bet at halftime, maybe. What a thriller these games have been as of late. Great series.
Reno looks a little high at three scores vs. Zona State but I think ASU will be better than they were last time and there are some strong trends working against Reno when it's a big dog. Pass.
Looking at Troy State against the 'Noles in the shit games. This is an absolute meatball sandwich for FSU.
K-State has no right to lay 20-plus to anyone but I don't have a good rating on them yet; heard they got badly outplayed in lucky season opening win over I-AA...
Maryland line looks about right, after Middle's stinker last week.
Ditto for USF/FIU, would have dog or no one there though.
Arky State, would like a lot more in Jonesboro than I do in Little Rock. Okie State beat up on what I heard was a pretty bad SMS team.
Kansas has been pounded here the last two hours, up to 23 now. Why? No interest either way for me.
Ayyunem another game where I got no clue just how "bad" the opponent is off one game against much superior foe.
Liking SMU a little against N-Texas but Thomas might have a big game this time as he is not overmatched when he gets the ball this week.
For me, it's a semi-smallish card: 13 bets... 5 medium, 6 small and 2 big. GL this weekend!!!
:shake:
:drink:
Twenty games Saturday... Yes, TWENTY... that we are not allowing people to parlay the side to the total. Gotta be some kind of record.
Good lord, it's like giving away money. Basically, bad news for the house. If the side is 40 percent (at generous places, normal going rate these days is 33 percent) of the total, then you are unable to parlay the fave to the over or the dog to the under - because of the correlated parlay. It stands a good chance to win (same theory applies to the baseball visitor/O and home team/U parlays)...
So with all these big numbers, hard finding a lot of games where I think the 'dog' has an outright chance to win - one of my problems when trying to bet on them is that I want them to be able to win...
To the weekend...
Worked out good last night with Steelers -1 in one of my rare Niffel plays last night.
I made Pitt higher tonight but can't pull the trigger; I'm a big fan of UC's coach and he sees this as a pivotal game in their program's development. They lost 38-20 at Pitt last year but were done in by two kick returns for touchdowns and a blocked punt that led to 3 (17 total points)... With most everyone back, and at home tonight, I expect a supreme effort. They might not win the game, but I would have Cincy or no one... OVER looked good at first but UC did shut out EKU last week and a friend of mine who went says their defense looks pretty solid and cohesive.
I was all over Virginia Tech earlier in the week and I made the game much higher. After doing more research, I am inclined to play the 'dog' and would do so if I didn't have UNC two points higher than the world is using. Bottom line, Carolina is an tough 'dog' at home. Virginia Tech is 7-1 as road favorite dating back to the start of 2004 - but the only spread loss came in Chapel Hill in 04. Hokies' QB Glennon makes his first road start still having plenty to prove. As long as Dailey can avoid turnovers, the angry Tar Heels should have enough to compete here throughout. Senior RB McGill was close to 100 yards and wideout Foster caught 11 passes for 120 yards. The 30-3 humiliation UNC suffered in Blacksburg at the end of last season could be motivation enough. Eye-opening stat of the day: The hosts are 6-0 ATS - and even more impressive 5-1 on the field - as conference home dogs of late.
Rutgers: See several writeups here, MULETIME said it basically the best, though...
The play: Rutgers -10.5 for a medium bet
I don't like NC State's team too much but Appy State isn't as bad as some MAC teams and I don't like Akron has much as some of these people on here. Fave or no one.
No opinion in Ann Arbor. Mich prolly laying too many but CMU isn't as good as Vandy so who knows.
Wake too low. Yes, QB is gone. But the replacement gets a great spot to break in, as this is Grobe's best team in six years against a piss-poor Duke team that was shut out by Richmond (!) last week.
The play: Wake -19.5 for a small bet
No opinion in Mizzou. Like fave a little bit but that line is awfully high.
I made Auburn 24.5. Question you have to ask, 1. Is Auburn that good? and that's certainly "YES", and 2. Can Missy State score? I say prolly not. But it is an SEC road game and they got LSU on deck. Might be a trucker for a half but Messy St will likely try throughout and could get the backdoor late. Pass.
Think there is some Purdue value here. The Boilers struggled with ISU last week (30-plus points???)... Yes, Miami is better than Indy State but they won't score 30 points unless Ryne Robinson returns 3-4 kicks for touchdowns. This Boiler offense, even without Ingraham, will get it into high gear again this week. Trends point to Purdue, too. Lay it.
The play: Purdue -17 for a small bet.
Biggest bet of the week comes in the early game. Louisville simply cannot be high enough. This is the biggest mismatch in all of college football this season - a powerful, explosive offense against the worst team in D-I this year, and perhaps, this century. I will be stunned if the Cards haven't got this one tucked in bed by halftime.
The play: Louisville -39.5 for a big bet.
Kent/Army. Bleh. Two teams that cost me money last week. Watching this one to get a better feel for both, but would think Army is right side...
Bammer looks a little high to me but not sure if I can count on Vandy to do much scoring against this defense, either. Pass.
I got the NIU/OU game right on the number. Strong trends favor NIU here and they are the cream of the MAC crop.
Wyoming made me look foolish and will hold back on them until I find out whether my number on them was way off or whether it was Utah State. Tough call with UVa's troubles last week.
MSU could be a little more eager to lay into a bad team this week after John L took it easy on his boys from Moscow. EMU doesn't bring much but does have a great receiver and two extra days to prep. Might still add favorite here but price is a little higher than I wanted to lay...
UCLA ought to beat Rice like a borrowed mule but the Owls did try hard in tough beat last week. UCLA proved a lot of us wrong, not sure if that was more Utah sluffing it off or UCLA taking it to them... letdown this time? Lot of points, again... pass.
If I can take 3 with Boston College I'm gonna prolly do it. They are at home, and with Clemson having FSU on deck, they might not show everything they've got. BC showed very little last week. Ryan is the question-mark, as he hasn't taken first-unit snaps all week.
Iowa just cannot be high enough against the Cuse. SHSU has a good writeup on this one I believe. I like Iowa a lot and even with the major revenger next week, this could be the best team in the Big 10 (all apologies to the Ohio and Michigan-based posters on the board). Lay it.
The play: Iowa -18.5 for a small bet.
Okie is no bargain but Washington's defense will really struggle against AP if it couldn't contain San Jose.
Notre Dame will likely gravitate up tomorrow. I think it could easily fall between 4 and 11, nothing would surprise me in that range... a close, hard-fought ND win is what I expect.
Tulsa will play hard and I have question-marks about the BYU offense, but I think you have to give credit to both their defense and the Zona defense. A nice game last week there and fun to watch the defenses shine in a BYU game lol...
Colorado State is tough for me to figure; I mentioned in a couple of threads, CU loses to I-AA in opener and looked awful in doing so. But 'dog' always does well in this series. Hawkins will meet mentor Koetter and ASU next week but to CU players (ex-Barnett guys), this one far more important. Passing until the half.
Buffalo is pretty damn bad having to go to OT to finish off Temple but just can't recommend laying four scores with a BG team that I don't think will be very good.
Florida has Tennessee on deck. Another classic spot where I don't know to bet on or against - usually Urban good about getting the cash in Year 2 of his program though, so won't be against.
Gonna have a small play on Tree. THey are not as bad as it looked last week and other team is not as good (that was Washington, remember)... Stanford returns all but one player and a good Pac-10 quarterback on an offense that covered seven of its last eight in 2005. Meanwhile, the Stanford defense will have something to prove after a poor showing last week, and it will look to take out frustrations on the Spartans. This is a road game but you could ride a moped from Palo Alto to San Jose. The Spartans have dropped four straight in this series by an average of 31 points. Lay it with the Trees.
THe play: Stanford -9.5 for a small bet
Passing Zona/LSU. Would only have 'dog', as LSU likely squarely focused on showdown in the plains next week.
Also passing on IU/Ball. Lean to fave at opening price of 2 1/2 but I like Ball's special teams, and their offense could really be good before it's said and done. OVER worth a look...
Screw Utah State. I need to see just how far off my rating is on them. Now I got Arkansas -29, no idea if that's close or not but at least it's close to the number this week lol.
Toledo laying too many in Kalamazoo. I won't bet the 'dog' because I think their coach is overrated and not very good, fat man definitely worth 4-6 points in this matchup... WMU's QB situation is a mess as well. Pass.
Took Vegas earlier this week at plus three-scores. Iowa State wary of return trip to Iowa City seven days after this one while the Rebs come off a strong win in I-AA opener.... Hinds is the real-deal and think Reb pass defense will contain Meyer and Co. Key is to slow the 'Clone ground game. Price too high.
The play: Vegas plus 14.5 for medium bet.
Air Force one of the more interesting bets. Tenny has Florida on deck, coming off dominant win over Cal that will later show Cal is not that bad, nor the Vols that good.... Vols are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as favorites of 10 or more and Air Force boasting is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a dog in its first road game. Line inflated due to last week but I like the AFA offense to compete here, and keep the clock running to shorten the game.
The play: Air Force plus 20 for a medium bet
Think Wazzou is better than we saw last week, and Idaho prolly not as good - though I do like the Vandals and want value later this year with "E" on the sidelines and a lot of good players Holt brought in....
Don't see all the Houston hype. They're gonna try to lay 2 touchdowns again? I made this game 10 and I think Tulane is better than most want to concede. Team Katrina has had a year to heal and I expect a great effort in their opener. I'm a Ricard fan and I think he carves up this UH defense. If Rice can score 30 in two quarters, what will this bunch do?
The play: Tulane plus 14 for a medium bet
East Carolina has been mentioned in every service tout on the board except for Dr. Bob. I made that game 5 1/2 so a little lower but big revenge for U-ab after the 'Rats kept them from bowling last fall. Pass.
Cal is the other half of the Tennessee equasion. And with Minny winning like they did at Kant last week, it really throws the line out of whack. Let's see what the Gophers do against a real defense that will be seething this week. I have Cal favored 16 here, so this looks like a gift to me. Lay it.
The play: Cal -7 for a big bet.
So Car failed to convince me that they've got much on offense after their struggles in Starkvul. Jorja is still the more talented bunch and I expect a good effort after the home struggle last fall. Lay the small price with the 'Dogs.
THe play: Jorja -3 for a small bet
Ohio State is the better team, especially without the Texas CB... Everyone has an opinion about it, mine is that it will likely be a low-scoring game. By no means am I comparing Smith to Young, but this likes a role-reversal in teams this year, as Texas took a game it had no business winning and somehow escaping the 'Shoe with a win. This time, OSU might find itself in the same spot, with no business winning. But I don't think so. Their performance against Northern early last week was very businesslike and impressive to me. I think they handle business in Austin by a touchdown or 10 points.
The play: Ohio State plus 2.5 for a small bet
Pass the New Mex/New Mex State fiasco.
Laid 6 with Texas Tech early in the week. Harrell has already been in the system for a couple of seasons. This could be a neutral setting, as the Sun Bowl is only 345 miles from Lubbock. In back-to-back winning seasons UTEP has been overmatched on defense against the better teams they have faced. Size is a real issue here, with the size of those Tech receivers overmatching a small Miner secondary, one that allowed
80% completions and 9.2 yards per pass attempt at San Diego State last week against a backup. What will Harrell do?
The play: Tech -6 for a medium bet
Oregon/Fresno: Cannot wait to watch. Will bet at halftime, maybe. What a thriller these games have been as of late. Great series.
Reno looks a little high at three scores vs. Zona State but I think ASU will be better than they were last time and there are some strong trends working against Reno when it's a big dog. Pass.
Looking at Troy State against the 'Noles in the shit games. This is an absolute meatball sandwich for FSU.
K-State has no right to lay 20-plus to anyone but I don't have a good rating on them yet; heard they got badly outplayed in lucky season opening win over I-AA...
Maryland line looks about right, after Middle's stinker last week.
Ditto for USF/FIU, would have dog or no one there though.
Arky State, would like a lot more in Jonesboro than I do in Little Rock. Okie State beat up on what I heard was a pretty bad SMS team.
Kansas has been pounded here the last two hours, up to 23 now. Why? No interest either way for me.
Ayyunem another game where I got no clue just how "bad" the opponent is off one game against much superior foe.
Liking SMU a little against N-Texas but Thomas might have a big game this time as he is not overmatched when he gets the ball this week.
For me, it's a semi-smallish card: 13 bets... 5 medium, 6 small and 2 big. GL this weekend!!!
:shake:
:drink:
