Saturday's CFB...


CTG Regular
A word about the card.

Twenty games Saturday... Yes, TWENTY... that we are not allowing people to parlay the side to the total. Gotta be some kind of record.

Good lord, it's like giving away money. Basically, bad news for the house. If the side is 40 percent (at generous places, normal going rate these days is 33 percent) of the total, then you are unable to parlay the fave to the over or the dog to the under - because of the correlated parlay. It stands a good chance to win (same theory applies to the baseball visitor/O and home team/U parlays)...

So with all these big numbers, hard finding a lot of games where I think the 'dog' has an outright chance to win - one of my problems when trying to bet on them is that I want them to be able to win...

To the weekend...

Worked out good last night with Steelers -1 in one of my rare Niffel plays last night.

I made Pitt higher tonight but can't pull the trigger; I'm a big fan of UC's coach and he sees this as a pivotal game in their program's development. They lost 38-20 at Pitt last year but were done in by two kick returns for touchdowns and a blocked punt that led to 3 (17 total points)... With most everyone back, and at home tonight, I expect a supreme effort. They might not win the game, but I would have Cincy or no one... OVER looked good at first but UC did shut out EKU last week and a friend of mine who went says their defense looks pretty solid and cohesive.

I was all over Virginia Tech earlier in the week and I made the game much higher. After doing more research, I am inclined to play the 'dog' and would do so if I didn't have UNC two points higher than the world is using. Bottom line, Carolina is an tough 'dog' at home. Virginia Tech is 7-1 as road favorite dating back to the start of 2004 - but the only spread loss came in Chapel Hill in 04. Hokies' QB Glennon makes his first road start still having plenty to prove. As long as Dailey can avoid turnovers, the angry Tar Heels should have enough to compete here throughout. Senior RB McGill was close to 100 yards and wideout Foster caught 11 passes for 120 yards. The 30-3 humiliation UNC suffered in Blacksburg at the end of last season could be motivation enough. Eye-opening stat of the day: The hosts are 6-0 ATS - and even more impressive 5-1 on the field - as conference home dogs of late.

Rutgers: See several writeups here, MULETIME said it basically the best, though...

The play: Rutgers -10.5 for a medium bet

I don't like NC State's team too much but Appy State isn't as bad as some MAC teams and I don't like Akron has much as some of these people on here. Fave or no one.

No opinion in Ann Arbor. Mich prolly laying too many but CMU isn't as good as Vandy so who knows.

Wake too low. Yes, QB is gone. But the replacement gets a great spot to break in, as this is Grobe's best team in six years against a piss-poor Duke team that was shut out by Richmond (!) last week.

The play: Wake -19.5 for a small bet

No opinion in Mizzou. Like fave a little bit but that line is awfully high.

I made Auburn 24.5. Question you have to ask, 1. Is Auburn that good? and that's certainly "YES", and 2. Can Missy State score? I say prolly not. But it is an SEC road game and they got LSU on deck. Might be a trucker for a half but Messy St will likely try throughout and could get the backdoor late. Pass.

Think there is some Purdue value here. The Boilers struggled with ISU last week (30-plus points???)... Yes, Miami is better than Indy State but they won't score 30 points unless Ryne Robinson returns 3-4 kicks for touchdowns. This Boiler offense, even without Ingraham, will get it into high gear again this week. Trends point to Purdue, too. Lay it.

The play: Purdue -17 for a small bet.

Biggest bet of the week comes in the early game. Louisville simply cannot be high enough. This is the biggest mismatch in all of college football this season - a powerful, explosive offense against the worst team in D-I this year, and perhaps, this century. I will be stunned if the Cards haven't got this one tucked in bed by halftime.

The play: Louisville -39.5 for a big bet.

Kent/Army. Bleh. Two teams that cost me money last week. Watching this one to get a better feel for both, but would think Army is right side...

Bammer looks a little high to me but not sure if I can count on Vandy to do much scoring against this defense, either. Pass.

I got the NIU/OU game right on the number. Strong trends favor NIU here and they are the cream of the MAC crop.

Wyoming made me look foolish and will hold back on them until I find out whether my number on them was way off or whether it was Utah State. Tough call with UVa's troubles last week.

MSU could be a little more eager to lay into a bad team this week after John L took it easy on his boys from Moscow. EMU doesn't bring much but does have a great receiver and two extra days to prep. Might still add favorite here but price is a little higher than I wanted to lay...

UCLA ought to beat Rice like a borrowed mule but the Owls did try hard in tough beat last week. UCLA proved a lot of us wrong, not sure if that was more Utah sluffing it off or UCLA taking it to them... letdown this time? Lot of points, again... pass.

If I can take 3 with Boston College I'm gonna prolly do it. They are at home, and with Clemson having FSU on deck, they might not show everything they've got. BC showed very little last week. Ryan is the question-mark, as he hasn't taken first-unit snaps all week.

Iowa just cannot be high enough against the Cuse. SHSU has a good writeup on this one I believe. I like Iowa a lot and even with the major revenger next week, this could be the best team in the Big 10 (all apologies to the Ohio and Michigan-based posters on the board). Lay it.

The play: Iowa -18.5 for a small bet.

Okie is no bargain but Washington's defense will really struggle against AP if it couldn't contain San Jose.

Notre Dame will likely gravitate up tomorrow. I think it could easily fall between 4 and 11, nothing would surprise me in that range... a close, hard-fought ND win is what I expect.

Tulsa will play hard and I have question-marks about the BYU offense, but I think you have to give credit to both their defense and the Zona defense. A nice game last week there and fun to watch the defenses shine in a BYU game lol...

Colorado State is tough for me to figure; I mentioned in a couple of threads, CU loses to I-AA in opener and looked awful in doing so. But 'dog' always does well in this series. Hawkins will meet mentor Koetter and ASU next week but to CU players (ex-Barnett guys), this one far more important. Passing until the half.

Buffalo is pretty damn bad having to go to OT to finish off Temple but just can't recommend laying four scores with a BG team that I don't think will be very good.

Florida has Tennessee on deck. Another classic spot where I don't know to bet on or against - usually Urban good about getting the cash in Year 2 of his program though, so won't be against.

Gonna have a small play on Tree. THey are not as bad as it looked last week and other team is not as good (that was Washington, remember)... Stanford returns all but one player and a good Pac-10 quarterback on an offense that covered seven of its last eight in 2005. Meanwhile, the Stanford defense will have something to prove after a poor showing last week, and it will look to take out frustrations on the Spartans. This is a road game but you could ride a moped from Palo Alto to San Jose. The Spartans have dropped four straight in this series by an average of 31 points. Lay it with the Trees.

THe play: Stanford -9.5 for a small bet

Passing Zona/LSU. Would only have 'dog', as LSU likely squarely focused on showdown in the plains next week.

Also passing on IU/Ball. Lean to fave at opening price of 2 1/2 but I like Ball's special teams, and their offense could really be good before it's said and done. OVER worth a look...

Screw Utah State. I need to see just how far off my rating is on them. Now I got Arkansas -29, no idea if that's close or not but at least it's close to the number this week lol.

Toledo laying too many in Kalamazoo. I won't bet the 'dog' because I think their coach is overrated and not very good, fat man definitely worth 4-6 points in this matchup... WMU's QB situation is a mess as well. Pass.

Took Vegas earlier this week at plus three-scores. Iowa State wary of return trip to Iowa City seven days after this one while the Rebs come off a strong win in I-AA opener.... Hinds is the real-deal and think Reb pass defense will contain Meyer and Co. Key is to slow the 'Clone ground game. Price too high.

The play: Vegas plus 14.5 for medium bet.

Air Force one of the more interesting bets. Tenny has Florida on deck, coming off dominant win over Cal that will later show Cal is not that bad, nor the Vols that good.... Vols are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as favorites of 10 or more and Air Force boasting is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a dog in its first road game. Line inflated due to last week but I like the AFA offense to compete here, and keep the clock running to shorten the game.

The play: Air Force plus 20 for a medium bet

Think Wazzou is better than we saw last week, and Idaho prolly not as good - though I do like the Vandals and want value later this year with "E" on the sidelines and a lot of good players Holt brought in....

Don't see all the Houston hype. They're gonna try to lay 2 touchdowns again? I made this game 10 and I think Tulane is better than most want to concede. Team Katrina has had a year to heal and I expect a great effort in their opener. I'm a Ricard fan and I think he carves up this UH defense. If Rice can score 30 in two quarters, what will this bunch do?

The play: Tulane plus 14 for a medium bet

East Carolina has been mentioned in every service tout on the board except for Dr. Bob. I made that game 5 1/2 so a little lower but big revenge for U-ab after the 'Rats kept them from bowling last fall. Pass.

Cal is the other half of the Tennessee equasion. And with Minny winning like they did at Kant last week, it really throws the line out of whack. Let's see what the Gophers do against a real defense that will be seething this week. I have Cal favored 16 here, so this looks like a gift to me. Lay it.

The play: Cal -7 for a big bet.

So Car failed to convince me that they've got much on offense after their struggles in Starkvul. Jorja is still the more talented bunch and I expect a good effort after the home struggle last fall. Lay the small price with the 'Dogs.

THe play: Jorja -3 for a small bet

Ohio State is the better team, especially without the Texas CB... Everyone has an opinion about it, mine is that it will likely be a low-scoring game. By no means am I comparing Smith to Young, but this likes a role-reversal in teams this year, as Texas took a game it had no business winning and somehow escaping the 'Shoe with a win. This time, OSU might find itself in the same spot, with no business winning. But I don't think so. Their performance against Northern early last week was very businesslike and impressive to me. I think they handle business in Austin by a touchdown or 10 points.

The play: Ohio State plus 2.5 for a small bet

Pass the New Mex/New Mex State fiasco.

Laid 6 with Texas Tech early in the week. Harrell has already been in the system for a couple of seasons. This could be a neutral setting, as the Sun Bowl is only 345 miles from Lubbock. In back-to-back winning seasons UTEP has been overmatched on defense against the better teams they have faced. Size is a real issue here, with the size of those Tech receivers overmatching a small Miner secondary, one that allowed
80% completions and 9.2 yards per pass attempt at San Diego State last week against a backup. What will Harrell do?

The play: Tech -6 for a medium bet

Oregon/Fresno: Cannot wait to watch. Will bet at halftime, maybe. What a thriller these games have been as of late. Great series.

Reno looks a little high at three scores vs. Zona State but I think ASU will be better than they were last time and there are some strong trends working against Reno when it's a big dog. Pass.

Looking at Troy State against the 'Noles in the shit games. This is an absolute meatball sandwich for FSU.

K-State has no right to lay 20-plus to anyone but I don't have a good rating on them yet; heard they got badly outplayed in lucky season opening win over I-AA...

Maryland line looks about right, after Middle's stinker last week.

Ditto for USF/FIU, would have dog or no one there though.

Arky State, would like a lot more in Jonesboro than I do in Little Rock. Okie State beat up on what I heard was a pretty bad SMS team.

Kansas has been pounded here the last two hours, up to 23 now. Why? No interest either way for me.

Ayyunem another game where I got no clue just how "bad" the opponent is off one game against much superior foe.

Liking SMU a little against N-Texas but Thomas might have a big game this time as he is not overmatched when he gets the ball this week.

For me, it's a semi-smallish card: 13 bets... 5 medium, 6 small and 2 big. GL this weekend!!!


Are you not worried that UL plays tha u next week? Might get the starters out really early
Nah, ABCs, the starters don't even have to make the trip. I would bet on U of L's backups at all the skill positions and still lay 40.

THAT's how one-sided this one is...

Will be around for about a half-hour if anyone has questions...
Dude.....passing on all those SEC games??:wacka wacka: Might be a good ideal....

BOL to ya...WAX the man's ass, bro:smiley_acbe:
I like Air Force as this is a sandwich spot for Tenny. Maybe a closer look at Middle Tenny? I don't care how they looked last week, I KNOW that Maryland is looking at West Virginia next week....thoughts Timmy?
be careful bout the colorado st/colorado game (co st had some major arrests the other night that WILL hurt them)....low line here, i really like COL U w/ the "what the fuck happened last week?" attitude...good luck on your choices!!
GL Rexy....I really like the card also...w/ ya on Tech and a couple others...convinced me on the Cal side as I was thinking along those lines...

Good luck tomorrow..
smh - I agree this is definitely a look ahead spot for MD and based on last week's game against Bill and Mary, Ralph will not want to tip his hand for the Mountaineers. MD will want to put this game away in the 1st half and then play the second string guys and rest the starters after a couple series into the second half. Tough to figure at 22 and 40 how to play the game if you are so inclined. I think they've got it about right as I see something like 28-7 or 31-7 MD. No play here for me, as I think Ralph keeps the wraps on the throwing part of the offense. MD will be content to bang it on the ground and get out with a safe win with no injuries. How about your Eagles this wkend?
Like some of the same Rexy. I missed most of the lines as I was outta town til late Sunday night. Wazzu is pretty banged up & it's essentially a neutral site........the schools are only 8 miles apart. Idaho might be worth a look @ +17.

GL tomorrow......
thanx rexy

rex-whats your take on kansas dropping the ball on UL Monroe. they are playing some real ball now.

oregon over against the valley people? thats going to be a high flying game.

rutgers taking on those illinois dogs?
Timh said:
Yeah, I got could you take NCST?

please dont take state even though they are down to 8.5....we will not win this game...will be tailgating in 7 hours but ncst has no offense since rivers left
Wolfpack's right CKR.

Doesn't look like you actually took em, but I'll be really surprised if Akron doesn't cover, and I honestly only give the wolfpack about a 50/50 shot to win.

Maybe I'm overly critical, but I really don't think so.

GL with your card. least where it doesn't cross negatively with mine. =)
Thanks for the thoughts Timmy. May just have to pull the trigger on MD. Really hope they beat WVU next week.

I bet the Birds @ -4. I think value is gone once you get above that.
Timmy: Never took NC State. Just saying the line isn't right. Akron not as good as some would believe and NC State can easily cover. I passed.

Fade: I took Jorja and God do I want Auburn and Vandy but I'mm sit it out. 13 is enough for now hahaha

Horn: I'm not understanding what you're talking about (hahaha).

Cash: Thanks buddy, GL

SMH: Yes, Middle is in a good sandwich spot and I gave them a long look before passing. Last week's woeful effort didn't inspire me to run out to the windows. MD will certainly be looking ahead because I think they have a real chance next week.

KK: NO bet on that Colo game; will watch first half and see if something develops.

JOB: THanks buddy, GL to us.

Mugg: Yes, I looked at Idaho. I think Wazzou is better than people believe and Idaho, though well coached and competitive, might wear down late. Home team just a little deeper and stronger.

Thanks Fondy, UTSUX, Pags...

Jace: I gave a brief thought on every game above, in order of how they are listed on the Las Vegas Rotation. About Kansas, that line shot through the roof last night. Just a lot of points for them to lay against anyone. I passed that one, as well as Oregon and I'm on Rutgers for revenge purposes moreso than anything else.

Pack: We shall see, that's why they play it.

Redbearde: Same to you my friend. GL with the big card, as long as we're not crossing swords, lol..

Yanks: Let's do it. I'm ready!

Rex - yeah see you said fave or no one. I just think NCST is not that good and Akron ended up doing a nice job stopping the run vs. PST. last week though it was on wet, muddy field in poor conditions. I was impressed that they dominated the TOP so much in that game. I just think Akron should load up to stop A. Brown and try and make Stone beat them in the passing game. I'm taking a crack on the ML as well. GL today!
Thanks Timmy and Eames.

Note to all: Don Best is down and there has not been a update for about a half hour.

Shop around. Your book cannot move on air. They have to take a bet first, you could unknowningly get on the same side as Billy or another syndicate and get 1-2 points better of the number.

Fucking Don Best - I finally got back in. Those fucking ass clowns going down in the last hour before noon. I've got a fucking server I'd like to shove up their ass lol...
haha Timmy....

Funny thing is that DB being down like that is usually good for any PLAYERS who like to make money. Just monitor the lines at all your books, who are forced to move it after taking a bet instead of on "air"....

You should definitely get the best of the number.

Don WOrst back after a 29-minute hiatus, or so...
Yeah...just what I need to worry about....trying to get that back on line at crunch time. You and Horn talked me into Louisville. How about 56-7.

North Carolina plus 14 for a small bet. Line was ridiculous, and now we got the late steam coming on my side. We all know who that is...
Yeah, I saw that one come off 14, pretty strong move there but I couldn't bring myself to play NC. GL though...