Saturday

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Here we go:

New Orleans @ Golden State

Hornets are still short the "trio" and face a GS team off 3 days rest that has taken a series of tough beats at home while now also dropping 4 straight. The Warriors are talent trying to become a team. It will take time for them to develop consistency especially playing Nelson's Fun and Gun offense. Richardson is listed as Doubtful but have not looked into his status recently.

New Orleans is just 1-6 SU past 7 and lost by twenty last nite in Sea. After 2 solid efforts they were flat. Has to be what the doctor ordered for GS IMO...NO is 1-3 SU and ATS on the road recently. They are 1-3 ATS on back to backs and you look at this team and its thin. It will also be iths 3rd road game in 4 nites and you know GS is pushing the tempo all nite. Simply put NO cannot score with GS...while it might seem crazy you would hope GS concentrates some on defense and I would lean towards an Under play here



<LI class=more>Hornets are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 vs. Western Conference. <LI class=more>Hornets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home <LI class=more>Hornets are 6-20-2 ATS iHornets are 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss.<LI class=more>Hornets are 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss.

<LI class=more>Play : Warriors -7.5 -106 (try to get -7)


Denver @ Dallas

While it flies under the radar the fact that Stackhouse is Questionable is huge IMO. Dallas doesnt get much bench scoring to begin with and w/o him your left with only George and Croshere for offense.

Looks like Dallas started this season slow and underperformed , then won a bunch of games thus overperforming and now struggling some again ubderperforming. With Denver being 6-2 SU & ATS you have to like the points in what usually plays out as a tight game....Playing back to back oustide of the end of theer 1st road trip has not been an issue.

Just gonna rid last nites DEN momentum....despite a so called bounce back spot and the 211 total seems to high....

Play: Denver +8 -110 & ML +330

Minny @ Chi

Playing back to back should only slightily benefit Chi since they were home and are probably deeper off the bench. To me yesterday was the spot they became overvalued. Simply put with Minny away struggles to be 8 pt dogs a nite after Tor caught 9 and covered or a week after the bottomfeeders of the East came through as 7 pt dogs just doesnt seem to be logical...

Minny is 6-2 ATS as a road dog and have played well enough @ places liek Dallas and Houston to cash....to me the Wolves continue to get no respect cause there is nothing SEXY about them outside of KG...most peopleprobably couldnt name therest of the T Wolves.....

With how Minny plays away the UNDER looks like the play as well...Since the opener Minny has struggled to crack 180 in road tilts

Play : Wolves +8 -110 & ML +330

LAC @ Memphis

This is one of the games you ask why get involved. I think at the end of the day though LAC might actually present value.....

Simply put Grizz are shorthanded they didnt have Swift or Roberts last nite which is something that would have talked me out of a huge play on Mmephis since they are already depleted...

Memphis is shorthanded and 0-6 SU in Bto B's while LAC is growing desperate to just win one away.... Unfortunately Memphis has not been kind to LA though and it something I wil revisist later

Indiana@ Cle

In a home dominanted series with revenge and rest on the mind for Cle you have to like the home team. The line might look high but I am sure revenge is built in , rest and O'Neals absence...taking it from 5.5 where it should be to 8..

Indy had that long trip and just had to battle back versus lowly Portland in the 2nd H without a key player....that has to be draining....

Home team is 8-2 SU and last meeting in Cle the Cavs won by 30.....Hughes has praticed will he play????

Play : Cavs -8 -110


Boston @ NJN

I have to get some help understanding this line.......last week celts outplay NJ for 3 quarters and fade late when NJ was DESPERATE for a WIN. They were about 3 pt favs now they travel to the Meadowlands and catch 8???? Let me say this To Good to be True here could be the understatement of the century...

I just dont get this line these are teams are basically even probably NJ -1 on a neutral court is the Suns game doing this ?? NJ is 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS!!! Boston has not played well in NJ in recent years but they only fell by two last season and 3 last meeting they are 4-0ATS on Bto B's....to NJ 3-7-1 ATS on 1 day rest where they have dropped the cash the past 5....so it seems an under is in order??



<LI class=more>Nets are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games. <LI class=more>Nets are 5-17-2 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Play Boston +8 -110 (XLarge) & ML +290

Milw @ NYK

I am not crazy about the Milwaukee team but I also cant see why I would not take the points here.....simple logic tells me if NYK is -2 at home to Mem and Milw was just -5ish how can NY be -2.5 at hove vs Milw.....?? So lean towards fading NY as chalk....

This game should see alot of scoring....Bucks allowed a ton of points on recent road trip and we know they find ways to score it....Redd could be deadly if NY doesnt start defending the three ball..NY offense has played better and should put 100+ in what should be a close game...

Leans Over 207 -110 & Milw +2.5

Philly @ Orlando

Despite the 2nd H meltdown I still believe Philly is better w/o AI . They just ran into the smoking hot Arenas and Co....shit happens...

Philly can score but doesnt play much defense even the slow tempoed magic should see a score similiar to the 1st meeting. Right now in games involving Philly there is mostly guesswork but ORL like Ind seems sluggish since they returned from there West Coast trip...

<LI class=morehot>76ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. <LI class=more>76ers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home.<LI class=more>Magic are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite.<LI class=more>Underdog is 19-6 ATS in the last 25 meetings. <LI class=morecool>Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Leans : Philly +11 and ov 187

Houston @ Was

You have Houston playing 4th in 5 nites and favored away!!!

Like I said before yesterdays game The rockets simply are not as good away. They blew out a Bobcat team w/o Knight which is there leader. They had a day off basically while Wiz battle Philly for awhile....

I do not believe Hou should be favored here...had Wiz -1.5 actually..

The Wiz have won 5 of 6 and are 7-2 at home...the rockets are not a good zero days rest squad...

-Rockets are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
<LI class=more>Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 0 days rest. <LI class=morecool>Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. <LI class=morecool>Rockets are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.<LI class=morecool>Wizards are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days rest.
Play : Wiz +107 ML or +1 if u prefer..
 
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Good looking card Sport. Like the Celtics quite a bit in this spot as well. It'll be interesting to see what tempo the game plays out after both teams matchups with the Suns. GL
 
First NCAAB ...(posted at least had Duke U56 1st H)

Indiana +2.5 -110 (medium) 2nd H & ML +155 (small)

The rest of the day has ....

Drexel +10 , Rutgers +4.5 , Purdue - 6-102 , A&M +4 , U123 Temple , Cincy +123 , DePual +114 , Ill Chi +10.5 , O 159 Vandy , USC -3.5 , Wyoming +7.5 , Zaga -7.5 , u 132 StJohns
 
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xpression syst_m said:
good looking card, i like the under in chicago best today

Gonna take a look at that....my heads in my ass still hungover some ....

GL today....
 
JPicks said:
Good looking card Sport. Like the Celtics quite a bit in this spot as well. It'll be interesting to see what tempo the game plays out after both teams matchups with the Suns. GL

I trying to figure how the can come up with that line....I just dont think NJ can play defense....

GL
 
NBA

Sides
Wizards ML +107 (XLarge)
Cavs -8 -107 (XLarge)
Celtics +8 -110 (XLarge) ML +290 (value)
LAC ML (see -142 trying for better) (medium/large)
Nuggets +8 -103 (+8.5??) (Large) ML +330 (value)
Wolves +8 -108 (+8.5??) (Large) ML +315 (value)
Warriors -7 -102 (-6.5??) (medium/large)

Leans
Sixers +12 -110
Bucks +2.5 -106 & ML +126

Totals
xxxxxxxx

Leans
Over 187 Orlando
Over 207 Mil
Und 190.5 Cle
Und 188 Chi
Und 202.5 GS
 
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j3pj3p said:
Wolves +7 or better :) BOL tonight Sportnut

Thanks bro.....same to you ....I guess one thing I wanted to mention is the one scare factor is if the AI trade goes through with Minny today we could be left shorthanded....


Thanks Farm as well.......GL
 
Philly , Duy and Mx~ Thanks all...... BOL today


Unfortunately you have created a dilusional person .......at least according to Eames....
 
Updating......

SportsNut said:
NBA

Sides
Wizards ML +107 (XLarge)
Cavs -8 -107 (XLarge)
Celtics +8 -110 (XLarge) ML +290 (value)
LAC ML -142 (Large)
Nuggets +8.5 +102 (+9???) (Medium) ML +370 (value) Downgraded Mavs steamed?
Wolves +8 -108 (Large) ML +315 (value)
Warriors -6.5 -112 (Medium)
Sixers +12 -110 (small) ML +675 (value) No Play....!!!
Bucks +3 -115 (Small) ML +125 (value)

Leans
Sixers +12 -110
Bucks +2.5 -106 & ML +126

Totals
Over 207.5 -113 Milw (Small)
Under 187 -105 Minny (Small)
Under 202.5 -110 NO (Medium)

Team Totals
Over 103 -110 Milw (small)
Under 97.5 -108 Bulls (small)

1st H
Bucks mL +121 (Small)
Under 93 -108 Chi (Small)

Leans
Over 187 Orlando
Over 207 Mil
Und 190.5 Cle
Und 188 Chi
Und 202.5 GS
 
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the only ml im concerned about is boston, lots of people like em tonight, but for some reason i think jersey can get it done, but no chance in hell im putting my money on the nets again, at least, not anytime soon...

good luck with your picks Nut
 
I think that LAC game might be one you kick yourself in the ass for and not going with your original thoughts. Grizz have wins over the Magic, Wizards (Eastern Conference Clippers) and played a tight one with the Heat recently at home. After handling the Grizz so easily at home I think the Clippers may look ahead to a rematch with the Spurs on Monday after their ass kicking last night. Granted they need a win desperately on the road, but they have Portland on Friday for that. The whole situation seems to be the catching a falling knife theory in my eyes. BOL on the play though as I'll be watching.
 
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I rarely play public road favs so I probably will be kicking my self in the ass..What scares me is not memphis so much but its lack of healthy players as Swift and Roberts were DNP last nite.....Its impossible to watch every angle of these games both are listed as Q and I would expect since they couldnt go last nite they wont go here....

It does appear Eddie Jones COULD return as he has been UPGRADED to PROBABLE now....he has missed 12 straight I believe though...effectiveness???

When I say they are desperate for a WIN obviously its not just one but looking to start winning consistently on the road...so winning here then @ Port is exactly what the doctor had ordered...

If you look at the lines this opened real soft.....LAC has stunk on the road but also has been favored @ Minny , @ Utah and @ LAL( u know what I mean)..basically expectations where very high and they underperformed to date.....this is the point where value MAY start creeping back to them aftre getting embarrassed in SA...dare I say that was there bottom...

Thanks for the well wishes...


xpress ~ I just dont know where this number came from and if there are two plays I am scared off its Denver and NJ...especially with the Denver number continuing to run....

NJ should be in good shape after the Suns game.....but 8?? BOL..
 
Nut, tailing you on those +8's Bos, Min, Den and the ML all over 3-1. Exacta boxing the MLs on all three. Let's hit a couple of these.
 
babyneedshoes said:
Nut, tailing you on those +8's Bos, Min, Den and the ML all over 3-1. Exacta boxing the MLs on all three. Let's hit a couple of these.

GL...little nervous about this Denver play cant phathom why the line is going up...outside of the obvious...
 
I'm more worried about the celts. Who knows what you're gonna get with those guys? I like the Den play. Detroit took Dal apart 2 nights ago and I think you nailed it on the head in your post. They under achieved early, over achieved for a while, now they are what they are. If Den comes to play they can win this game. GL and keep up the solid work.
 
As bad as the 1st Q was its the one time where I want a time to come out like shit.....start cold early and work you way back into it.......+8 is a nice cushion and any thing they shave off the 16 pt defecit is fine with me...

I just get nervous with these fat line sometimes they pan out sometimes they dont...

I am gonna be out the rst of the nite shortly so again BOL...
 
Marcus000 said:
Well we are both on the Nuggets and the Wolves so gl to us. Gl on the rest of your plays too bro.

Thanks Marcus...kicking myslef for no Overs in Houston & Orlando or under in NJ & under in Ind...thats life.......................BOL bro...
 
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Not crazy about the MILW play but gonna sit tight I think.....

2nd H
Over 103 -108 Milw / NYK (small)

defense anyone...
 
gl nut, did u get on any of that sixers ml? wish i did even if they dont win, what value that was...pissed at myself for passing that when just a couple days earlier i put a full unit on denver +1900 but pass on this one lol
 
xpression syst_m said:
gl nut, did u get on any of that sixers ml? wish i did even if they dont win, what value that was...pissed at myself for passing that when just a couple days earlier i put a full unit on denver +1900 but pass on this one lol

my units at this point are minute...I had the +12 then washed it but keep those bucks on the ML...

talked myself out of the +12...
 
SportsNut said:
Will chat tmrw...on my way out the door to the city...BOL tonite...nice hit earlier...

thanks, have fun, still early over here, don't like how that bulls game is going with that pace, so took over 94 +100 2nd half lol, so if it stays under 188 i break even, if it goes over, i lose the vig, if it falls on 187 or 188, that'd be perfect :wacka wacka:
 
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