Saturday Picks Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
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NFL Preseason Best Bets for August 23: Fade Arizona With Clayton Tune Playing

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins
Saturday, August 23, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium

Jacksonville's Defense


Unless the Jaguars' defense gets all new players, a new culture, and a new coordinator, the "over" is always going to be interesting in Jaguars games.

The defense completely fell off a cliff in December 2023 when no-name quarterback Jake Browning channeled Joe Montana and led Cincinnati to a 34-point output.
Despite personnel overhauls and new coordinators, the defense remains terrible in August 2025.

So far, the Jaguars have given up 31 points to a Steelers offense whose training camp performance had elicited grave concerns and 17 points to a Saints offense that threw an interception at Jacksonville's 13-yard line.

Opposing offenses thrive against Jacksonville because their quarterbacks have an easier time.

Skylar Thompson and Mason Rudolph were fantastic for Pittsburgh while Saints quarterbacks were very efficient, completing 75 percent of their passes, and productive.

Miami's Offense

It is reportedly the case that starters will see action for Miami, which means that starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will probably play some.

Led mostly by backups, Miami has scored 24 points against a Bears defense that is much tougher than Jacksonville's and against the Lions' defense that is not as bad as Jacksonville's.

It is reasonable to expect the Dolphins to exceed 24 points tonight.

Jacksonville's Offense

Nick Mullens is solidifying the backup quarterback role for himself.

Mullens has done a great job with his efficiency and productivity.

In his second drive against New Orleans, for example, he led the Jaguars on a touchdown drive.

While Jacksonville's other quarterbacks weren't as productive, they were also playing with a lead in what was, aided by turnovers deep in the opposing defense's territory, a lower-scoring game.

Jacksonville's backup quarterbacks, in a higher-scoring game with a Pittsburgh team that allowed a combined total of 27 points to Tampa Bay and Carolina, were still able to help the Jaguars score 25 points.

So, while the first-half over intrigues me with the thought that Mullens will play most of it, I like the full-game over because of how bad Jacksonville's defense will be for the whole game and because of how effective especially Seth Henigan is behind Mullens.

With Miami scoring 27-30 points tonight, Jacksonville will easily score enough points to send the game over.

Best Bet: Over 38.5 at -105 with BetOnline










Las Vegas Raiders vs. Arizona Cardinals
Saturday, August 23, 2025 at 10 p.m. ET at State Farm Stadium

Clayton Tune-Less


It might seem strange to see the Raiders favored on the road, but it makes total sense when you look at Arizona's quarterback situation.

Clayton Tune will likely see a decisive amount of action for the Cardinals tonight.

Arizona is worth fading with Tune at quarterback.

Tune's ineptitude became apparent when he saw regular season action and failed to exhibit either confidence or the ability to advance his offense.

Now through two preseason games, he has 47 passing yards and an interception.

When Arizona reached 20 points against the Chiefs, Kyler Murray got substantial playing time and completed seven of eight passes for 96 yards. But Arizona's head coach said that his team's starters likely won't see action tonight.

Arizona's two backup quarterbacks played all of last week and helped the Cardinals muster all of seven points.

Raiders Quarterbacks Tonight

Raiders quarterbacks are much better than Arizona's, and the former have a soft challenge that strengthens their outlook tonight.

Most recently, Arizona's defense allowed Denver backup quarterbacks Jarrett Stidham and Sam Ehlinger to combine for 30-for-39, 395 passing yards, and two touchdowns.

The Broncos scored 27 points against the Cardinals, whereas the Chiefs scored 17 points because they were held back by the terrible play of new Chiefs quarterback Bailey Zappe, whom New England had for good reason no longer wanted.

Facing Seattle and San Francisco, the Raiders have been scoring around 20 points. Aidan O'Connell has some starting experience and has proven himself to be vastly more productive than Tune.

The productivity of Ehlinger creates assurance that any Raiders quarterback will succeed tonight, including Cam Miller, who was terrific against Seattle and has reportedly improved tremendously in practice.

With O'Connell getting substantial playing time, with Miller displaying great promise, and with the Raiders defense not exhibiting the feebleness that plagued Arizona's last week, the Raiders will cover the spread tonight.

Best Bet: Raiders -2 at -115 with BetOnline
 
This might be my last NFL article for some time. It looks like the people I work for want to impose templates on us again, which tell us what to say and in how many words. And, of course, can't forget the precious key words for master Google! These templates will destroy depth and creativity, so the articles won't be worth posting here. I will just do my job.
 
This might be my last NFL article for some time. It looks like the people I work for want to impose templates on us again, which tell us what to say and in how many words. And, of course, can't forget the precious key words for master Google! These templates will destroy depth and creativity, so the articles won't be worth posting here. I will just do my job.
Sometimes, it's just a job.
 
I thought all of these were AI generated they are so thorough!
Man, thanks... I'm pretty sure lol. I definitely want a human element to be present. But I'm also an English PhD student. I think my training sort of rigidifies structure for me sometimes. Last time I swayed from structure, @Patrick9 gave me some shit :D so I don't want to purposely make my writing less good just to sound human.
 
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