MLB Bet or Fade for August 2: Michael McGreevy Is Underrated
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Saturday, August 2, 2025 at 3:07 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre
Overrated Max Scherzer
Given this starting pitcher matchup, I find the odds incredible.
Max Scherzer is starting for Toronto today. He's a big name, for sure, but his performance this year has failed to justify his strong reputation.
While Scherzer's last start was good, it doesn't change the fact of his decline, because it came against a Detroit lineup that had been ice-cold.
Heat maps show how often his pitches tend to land in the more middle, dangerous parts of the strike zone. His ERA and FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) approach 5.00 because his favorite pitches no longer possess the quality to survive their poor location.
Scherzer vs. Royals Batters
Kansas City's lineup has morphed into a different group, relative to what it was in the first half of the season.
The Royals' outlook against Scherzer is solid because, in the second half of the season, they rank third with a .521 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Underrated Noah Cameron
I find the odds incredible also because of how solid Kansas City's starter today, Noah Cameron, has been this year.
His only poor performances have come against Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs lineups that rank top-three in run production and top-six against his pitches from lefties.
In his eleven other starts, he allowed two earned runs or fewer.
His ascending strikeout rate in his recent starts — he struck out over ten batters per nine innings in each of his last three starts — attests to the quality of his stuff. His curveball and changeup, in particular, are lethal weapons that create a knee-bending change of pace relative to his fastball.
Compared to Scherzer, he allows drastically fewer home runs and yields more soft contact because of his superior command, which enables him to locate more of his pitches along the borders of the strike zone.
Scherzer, who has allowed at least one home run in each of his last three starts, is going to be the starter to make critical mistakes in this game.
With Kansas City's ninth-ranked bullpen fresh, the Royals make for a solid full-game play.
Best Bet: Royals ML at +134 with BetOnline
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies
Saturday, August 2, 2025 at 3:10 p.m. ET at Coors Field
The Angle
Yesterday's game was wild and very high-scoring — with five ninth-inning runs, the Rockies triumphed 17-16, creating an emotional let-down spot for their lineup today.
These lineups have been, throughout the year, two of baseball's worst. In runs per game, Colorado ranks 28th and Pittsbugh ranks dead-last.
Today is the perfect spot for an "under" after both lineups experienced such an anomalous explosion in production yesterday.
Lefty Austin Gomber
Austin Gomber starts for the Rockies today.
Gomber's high ERA belies the fact that he can do very well. This season, he shut down the Braves and even thrived against the Dodgers.
His recent tendency to concede many runs can't continue forever — it's not like his velocity has declined, for example. The tools for success are there. He simply faced lineups that possess vastly more quality than the one he'll see today.
Pittsburgh, by far, ranks dead-last against left-handed pitchers.
Gomber, a lefty, has unsurprisingly already constructed a solid track record against the Pirates, who collectively bat .200 and slug .311 with him on the mound.
Two starts ago, Gomber yielded a 3.28 FIP at home against St. Louis, showing that he is ready to put together a solid outing, especially against the right matchup, which is what he gets today.
The Venerable Paul Skenes
With Gomber holding down the fort, the first-five under is a sure thing with Paul Skenes pitching for Pittsburgh.
Skenes is arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball. He has allowed zero runs in his last two starts. In his last five starts, he allowed a combined total of two runs.
Best Bet: First-Five Under 5 at -115 with BetOnline
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Saturday, August 2, 2025 at 10:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium
Chicago's Improvement
In the second half of the season, the White Sox lineup has enjoyed significant improvement. In over half their games, they've scored at least seven runs.
Most recently, they scored nine runs against the Phillies and six against the Angels.
Young players are developing for them. Edgar Quero, for example, slugged .635 last month.
Luis Robert Jr. has also enhanced his production, slugging .549 in July.
With the strong hitting of other guys, too, like Mike Tauchman with his .840 OPS (on-base plus slugging), the White Sox boast a surprisingly potent lineup.
White Sox vs. Kyle Hendricks
Kyle Hendricks starts for the Angels today.
Multiple White Sox players already boast a strong track record against Hendricks. Josh Rojas, for example, slugs 1.333 in nine at-bats against him. Michael A. Taylor slugs .700 with him on the mound.
Hendricks comes into this game having been fortunate to limit Seattle to one run in his last start. He allowed hard contact on almost half of his pitches but benefited from a miniscule BABIP (batting average of balls in play). His 4.77 FIP in that start shows how poor he truly performed and how bad his form actually is.
His outlook tonight is negative against a White Sox lineup that, since the second half of the season, ranks seventh with a .477 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
If the White Sox still need to score when Hendricks leaves the game, they'll hit their team total "over" against an Angels bullpen that is one of four bullpens to be yielding an ERA of over 5.00.
Best Bet: White Sox Team Total Over 4.5 Runs at +112 with BetOnline
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
Saturday, August 2, 2025 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park
St. Louis' Underrated Starter
Michael McGreevy starts for the Cardinals tonight.
McGreevy's ERA is misleading because it is the product of an unfortunately high BABIP and low strand rate.
His 3.28 FIP is over 1.50 lower than his ERA and indicates that he is due to experience statistical progression.
In his last start, he allowed a lot of runs to the Padres, but he actually did an incredible job of limiting hard contact. His 3.53 FIP in that start is a sign of things to come.
He throws a good mix of pitches to keep hitters off-balance, as he effectively mixes up velocities and pitch locations to remain unpredictable.
His sweeper, in particular, boasts excellent spin and movement. This pitch combines well with his fastball, which, in contrast to his sweeper, he throws much faster and tends to locate high in the strike zone.
So, look out in particular for these two pitches, which are his favorite ones to throw and which both yield a slugging rate of below .300.
McGreevy vs. Padres Batters
McGreevy will perform well against a San Diego lineup that ranks 23rd with a .398 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
With St. Louis' bullpen fresh, the Padres team total under is going to hit.
Best Bet: Padres Team Total Under 4.5 Runs at -125 with BetOnline
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Saturday, August 2, 2025 at 3:07 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre
Overrated Max Scherzer
Given this starting pitcher matchup, I find the odds incredible.
Max Scherzer is starting for Toronto today. He's a big name, for sure, but his performance this year has failed to justify his strong reputation.
While Scherzer's last start was good, it doesn't change the fact of his decline, because it came against a Detroit lineup that had been ice-cold.
Heat maps show how often his pitches tend to land in the more middle, dangerous parts of the strike zone. His ERA and FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) approach 5.00 because his favorite pitches no longer possess the quality to survive their poor location.
Scherzer vs. Royals Batters
Kansas City's lineup has morphed into a different group, relative to what it was in the first half of the season.
The Royals' outlook against Scherzer is solid because, in the second half of the season, they rank third with a .521 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Underrated Noah Cameron
I find the odds incredible also because of how solid Kansas City's starter today, Noah Cameron, has been this year.
His only poor performances have come against Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs lineups that rank top-three in run production and top-six against his pitches from lefties.
In his eleven other starts, he allowed two earned runs or fewer.
His ascending strikeout rate in his recent starts — he struck out over ten batters per nine innings in each of his last three starts — attests to the quality of his stuff. His curveball and changeup, in particular, are lethal weapons that create a knee-bending change of pace relative to his fastball.
Compared to Scherzer, he allows drastically fewer home runs and yields more soft contact because of his superior command, which enables him to locate more of his pitches along the borders of the strike zone.
Scherzer, who has allowed at least one home run in each of his last three starts, is going to be the starter to make critical mistakes in this game.
With Kansas City's ninth-ranked bullpen fresh, the Royals make for a solid full-game play.
Best Bet: Royals ML at +134 with BetOnline
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies
Saturday, August 2, 2025 at 3:10 p.m. ET at Coors Field
The Angle
Yesterday's game was wild and very high-scoring — with five ninth-inning runs, the Rockies triumphed 17-16, creating an emotional let-down spot for their lineup today.
These lineups have been, throughout the year, two of baseball's worst. In runs per game, Colorado ranks 28th and Pittsbugh ranks dead-last.
Today is the perfect spot for an "under" after both lineups experienced such an anomalous explosion in production yesterday.
Lefty Austin Gomber
Austin Gomber starts for the Rockies today.
Gomber's high ERA belies the fact that he can do very well. This season, he shut down the Braves and even thrived against the Dodgers.
His recent tendency to concede many runs can't continue forever — it's not like his velocity has declined, for example. The tools for success are there. He simply faced lineups that possess vastly more quality than the one he'll see today.
Pittsburgh, by far, ranks dead-last against left-handed pitchers.
Gomber, a lefty, has unsurprisingly already constructed a solid track record against the Pirates, who collectively bat .200 and slug .311 with him on the mound.
Two starts ago, Gomber yielded a 3.28 FIP at home against St. Louis, showing that he is ready to put together a solid outing, especially against the right matchup, which is what he gets today.
The Venerable Paul Skenes
With Gomber holding down the fort, the first-five under is a sure thing with Paul Skenes pitching for Pittsburgh.
Skenes is arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball. He has allowed zero runs in his last two starts. In his last five starts, he allowed a combined total of two runs.
Best Bet: First-Five Under 5 at -115 with BetOnline
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Saturday, August 2, 2025 at 10:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium
Chicago's Improvement
In the second half of the season, the White Sox lineup has enjoyed significant improvement. In over half their games, they've scored at least seven runs.
Most recently, they scored nine runs against the Phillies and six against the Angels.
Young players are developing for them. Edgar Quero, for example, slugged .635 last month.
Luis Robert Jr. has also enhanced his production, slugging .549 in July.
With the strong hitting of other guys, too, like Mike Tauchman with his .840 OPS (on-base plus slugging), the White Sox boast a surprisingly potent lineup.
White Sox vs. Kyle Hendricks
Kyle Hendricks starts for the Angels today.
Multiple White Sox players already boast a strong track record against Hendricks. Josh Rojas, for example, slugs 1.333 in nine at-bats against him. Michael A. Taylor slugs .700 with him on the mound.
Hendricks comes into this game having been fortunate to limit Seattle to one run in his last start. He allowed hard contact on almost half of his pitches but benefited from a miniscule BABIP (batting average of balls in play). His 4.77 FIP in that start shows how poor he truly performed and how bad his form actually is.
His outlook tonight is negative against a White Sox lineup that, since the second half of the season, ranks seventh with a .477 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
If the White Sox still need to score when Hendricks leaves the game, they'll hit their team total "over" against an Angels bullpen that is one of four bullpens to be yielding an ERA of over 5.00.
Best Bet: White Sox Team Total Over 4.5 Runs at +112 with BetOnline
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
Saturday, August 2, 2025 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park
St. Louis' Underrated Starter
Michael McGreevy starts for the Cardinals tonight.
McGreevy's ERA is misleading because it is the product of an unfortunately high BABIP and low strand rate.
His 3.28 FIP is over 1.50 lower than his ERA and indicates that he is due to experience statistical progression.
In his last start, he allowed a lot of runs to the Padres, but he actually did an incredible job of limiting hard contact. His 3.53 FIP in that start is a sign of things to come.
He throws a good mix of pitches to keep hitters off-balance, as he effectively mixes up velocities and pitch locations to remain unpredictable.
His sweeper, in particular, boasts excellent spin and movement. This pitch combines well with his fastball, which, in contrast to his sweeper, he throws much faster and tends to locate high in the strike zone.
So, look out in particular for these two pitches, which are his favorite ones to throw and which both yield a slugging rate of below .300.
McGreevy vs. Padres Batters
McGreevy will perform well against a San Diego lineup that ranks 23rd with a .398 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
With St. Louis' bullpen fresh, the Padres team total under is going to hit.
Best Bet: Padres Team Total Under 4.5 Runs at -125 with BetOnline
