MLB Best Bets for May 31: Expect High-Scoring Fun in Arizona
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves
Saturday, May 31, 2025 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Truist Park
Boston's Underrated Starter
Walker Buehler starts for the Red Sox today.
Before 2022, Buehler was widely regarded as an excellent pitcher. He was even an All-Star selection and a Cy Young candidate.
The narrative has changed on him since then because injuries affected his physical tools.
However, after a strong postseason last year, he is continuing to show that he is rediscovering his old form.
His ERA does currently look unattractive, but that is only because he suffered a slow start to the season.
Since his first two starts, he allowed two runs or fewer in all but one start where he allowed three runs in six innings in Cleveland. His strong form helps explain why the odds are so wrong for this matchup where the Red Sox are listed as clear underdogs.
Buehler vs. Braves Batters
Buehler's outlook is particularly strong today because he has constructed a terrific track record against Atlanta's lineup.
Ronald Acuna Jr., for example, is Atlanta's scariest hitter, yet he is 1-for-12 with five strikeouts with Buehler on the mound.
Collectively, the Braves slug .280 against Buehler.
Outlook for Atlanta's Starter
Spencer Schwellenbach starts for the Braves today.
Unlike his Boston counterpart, Schwellenbach owns a poor track record against the lineup that he'll encounter today.
Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran, for example, are combined 4-for-10 with a triple and two home runs with Schwellenbach on the mound.
While Boston's hitters haven't collected many at-bats against him yet, overall they must be expected to thrive against him given the matchup details.
They rank sixth with a .442 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
In this matchup of starting pitchers, Boston's lineup has a strong edge, and yet we can even profit off the Red Sox if they were to just remain tied through five innings.
Best Bet: Red Sox First Five Run-Line (+0.5) at +102 with BetOnline
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners
Saturday, May 31, 2025 at 7:15 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park
Bailey Ober
Minnesota starts Bailey Ober tonight.
Ober's 3.41 ERA doesn't look that amazing, but consider that he allowed eight runs in 2.2 innings in his first start of the season.
His April ERA was then 2.10. His May ERA is currently 2.49. Ober isn't usually thought of as that good of a pitcher, but he is proving doubters wrong. He has, in sum, excelled for a long period of time now.
Ober vs. Mariners Batters
With his strong form, Ober is in a great position to take advantage of a Seattle lineup that he already loves pitching against.
Collectively, the Mariners slug .255 with Ober on the mound.
One must expect them to struggle against him because the matchup favors Ober so tremendously.
They rank 28th with a .353 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Bounce-Back Bryce
For Seattle, Bryce Miller starts today.
Miller is easy to dismiss when you look at his most recent starts. But he has an unequivocally strong history, throughout his career, of bouncing back from two consecutive bad outings.
In a three-start stretch last year, for example, he allowed four runs to the Orioles, five runs to the Yankees, but then two runs in six innings to the Astros.
Expect Miller to keep the scoring low today, especially against a Minnesota team that always declines offensively after exploding with a high run total in its previous games and that does an awful job of scoring runs on the road, by bouncing back.
Best Bet: First-Five Under 4 at -118 with BetOnline
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Saturday, May 31, 2025 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field
Washington's Starter
Mike Soroka starts for the Nationals today.
There's a reason why he's playing for his third different team in three years: he is nowhere near the pitcher that he was back in 2019. Now, even the White Sox don't want him.
Among other problems, he doesn't have a reliable favorite pitch. He throws a fastball most often, but batters slug .700 against it.
Soroka vs. Diamondbacks Batters
Expect Arizona to thrive against all of Soroka's pitches — the Diamondbacks love facing him.
They slug .675 with him on the mound.
If you are into hitting props, Josh Naylor would be a good candidate. He enters today's game on an eight-game hitting streak and is 4-for-6 with a double and a home run against Soroka. Bovada is offering a great price for his total bases "over."
Arizona's Starter
This will be a fun game in which Arizona's starter, too, struggles.
Brandon Pfaadt's outlook is negative against a Washington lineup that slugs .588 against him and ranks fifth with a .438 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Like his Atlanta counterpart, Pfaadt repeatedly struggles outing after outing. Both pitchers will be even worse than usual tonight.
Best Bet: First-Five Over 5 at +100 with BetOnline
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves
Saturday, May 31, 2025 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Truist Park
Boston's Underrated Starter
Walker Buehler starts for the Red Sox today.
Before 2022, Buehler was widely regarded as an excellent pitcher. He was even an All-Star selection and a Cy Young candidate.
The narrative has changed on him since then because injuries affected his physical tools.
However, after a strong postseason last year, he is continuing to show that he is rediscovering his old form.
His ERA does currently look unattractive, but that is only because he suffered a slow start to the season.
Since his first two starts, he allowed two runs or fewer in all but one start where he allowed three runs in six innings in Cleveland. His strong form helps explain why the odds are so wrong for this matchup where the Red Sox are listed as clear underdogs.
Buehler vs. Braves Batters
Buehler's outlook is particularly strong today because he has constructed a terrific track record against Atlanta's lineup.
Ronald Acuna Jr., for example, is Atlanta's scariest hitter, yet he is 1-for-12 with five strikeouts with Buehler on the mound.
Collectively, the Braves slug .280 against Buehler.
Outlook for Atlanta's Starter
Spencer Schwellenbach starts for the Braves today.
Unlike his Boston counterpart, Schwellenbach owns a poor track record against the lineup that he'll encounter today.
Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran, for example, are combined 4-for-10 with a triple and two home runs with Schwellenbach on the mound.
While Boston's hitters haven't collected many at-bats against him yet, overall they must be expected to thrive against him given the matchup details.
They rank sixth with a .442 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
In this matchup of starting pitchers, Boston's lineup has a strong edge, and yet we can even profit off the Red Sox if they were to just remain tied through five innings.
Best Bet: Red Sox First Five Run-Line (+0.5) at +102 with BetOnline
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners
Saturday, May 31, 2025 at 7:15 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park
Bailey Ober
Minnesota starts Bailey Ober tonight.
Ober's 3.41 ERA doesn't look that amazing, but consider that he allowed eight runs in 2.2 innings in his first start of the season.
His April ERA was then 2.10. His May ERA is currently 2.49. Ober isn't usually thought of as that good of a pitcher, but he is proving doubters wrong. He has, in sum, excelled for a long period of time now.
Ober vs. Mariners Batters
With his strong form, Ober is in a great position to take advantage of a Seattle lineup that he already loves pitching against.
Collectively, the Mariners slug .255 with Ober on the mound.
One must expect them to struggle against him because the matchup favors Ober so tremendously.
They rank 28th with a .353 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Bounce-Back Bryce
For Seattle, Bryce Miller starts today.
Miller is easy to dismiss when you look at his most recent starts. But he has an unequivocally strong history, throughout his career, of bouncing back from two consecutive bad outings.
In a three-start stretch last year, for example, he allowed four runs to the Orioles, five runs to the Yankees, but then two runs in six innings to the Astros.
Expect Miller to keep the scoring low today, especially against a Minnesota team that always declines offensively after exploding with a high run total in its previous games and that does an awful job of scoring runs on the road, by bouncing back.
Best Bet: First-Five Under 4 at -118 with BetOnline
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Saturday, May 31, 2025 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field
Washington's Starter
Mike Soroka starts for the Nationals today.
There's a reason why he's playing for his third different team in three years: he is nowhere near the pitcher that he was back in 2019. Now, even the White Sox don't want him.
Among other problems, he doesn't have a reliable favorite pitch. He throws a fastball most often, but batters slug .700 against it.
Soroka vs. Diamondbacks Batters
Expect Arizona to thrive against all of Soroka's pitches — the Diamondbacks love facing him.
They slug .675 with him on the mound.
If you are into hitting props, Josh Naylor would be a good candidate. He enters today's game on an eight-game hitting streak and is 4-for-6 with a double and a home run against Soroka. Bovada is offering a great price for his total bases "over."
Arizona's Starter
This will be a fun game in which Arizona's starter, too, struggles.
Brandon Pfaadt's outlook is negative against a Washington lineup that slugs .588 against him and ranks fifth with a .438 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Like his Atlanta counterpart, Pfaadt repeatedly struggles outing after outing. Both pitchers will be even worse than usual tonight.
Best Bet: First-Five Over 5 at +100 with BetOnline
