MLB Best Bets for April 19: The Angels Are Flying High
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 1:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park
Outlook for Detroit's Starter
Detroit starts Casey Mize today.
The Tigers are favored today because Mize enjoys a strong reputation.
But Royals batters do not care about his reputation. They slug .667 against him.
Five different Royals batters slug over .660 with Mize on the mound.
Kansas City's Starter
Seth Lugo starts for the Royals today.
Lugo's ERA is as high as it is because he allowed four earned runs via four home runs in 6.2 innings in Yankee Stadium.
As a fly ball-heavy pitcher, he can be forgiven for yielding a high ERA in Yankee Stadium.
Statcast's park data shows that it is vastly harder to hit home runs in Detroit's ballpark than in New York's.
Indeed, Lugo loves pitching in Detroit. In the Tigers' venue, he is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in three starts.
Lugo vs. Tigers Batters
Lugo thrives against Detroit's batters. They slug .387 against him.
Spencer Torkelson, for example, is so important to Detroit's lineup but has more strikeouts than hits in his career facing Lugo.
His absence of productivity today will be one reason why the Royals lead through five innings.
Best Bet: First-Half Royals ML at +100 with BetOnline
Cincinnati Reds vs. Baltimore Orioles
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards
The Odds
While Baltimore has enjoyed tremendous success in recent regular seasons, the fact is that the Orioles are currently 8-11.
They are being priced like the Baltimore of recent seasons and not like this year's version.
The Orioles do still average a lot of runs per game, but they've also floundered many times. They've scored two runs or fewer in nearly a third of their games.
They now face an elite pitcher in Hunter Greene, who has allowed a combined total of three earned runs in four innings.
Greene will outperform Baltimore's starter, who is making his MLB debut. He is pitching today out of sheer necessity, stepping up from a minor league role in which he was yielding a 2.76 ERA.
This is a tremendous pitching mismatch. Cincinnati's lineup has also shaken off its earlier-season struggles and, partly for this reason, enters today's contest having won five of its last seven games.
The odds, feeling very cheap, do not do justice to how much better Cincinnati is and will be than Baltimore today.
Greene has good endurance, so it is worth trusting him with his huge matchup edge to lead the Reds to a full-game victory.
Best Bet: Reds ML at -116 with BetOnline
San Diego Padres vs. Houston Astros
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Daikin Park
Key Trend
The decisive trend for this game is that Houston is 0-8 following a win.
Houston won its last game, so one must expect it to lose today.
Pitching Mismatch
San Diego will have an easier time scoring runs today.
Houston will struggle to hit Padres starter Michael King with his reliance on a four-seamer, changeup, sinker, and sweeper.
The Astros rank 24th with a .365 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
Houston starts Hayden Wesneski. His two favorite pitches are, by far, his four-seamer and sweeper.
San Diego ranks second with a .513 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
The Padres also have the league's top-ranked bullpen, so the Astros will struggle to hit San Diego's relievers as much as they will struggle to hit San Diego's starter.
Best Bet: Padres ML at -118 with BetOnline
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Angels
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium
Outlook for San Francisco's Starter
Landen Roupp starts for the Giants today.
Primarily, Roupp throws a curveball, sinker, and changeup.
The Angels rank ninth with a .412 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
Upon looking at the Angels' most recent games, it might feel hard to back them. But note the location of those games.
The Angels have played worse on the road than they do at home.
Los Angeles' lineup gets a tremendous boost from playing in its home venue.
This boost was, it is true, not apparent in the team's last game. But that game came against Logan Webb, whose elite ERA and track record against the Angels made him an obvious pitcher to trust.
In each of the Angels' other three home games, they scored at least six runs, whereas they score a little more than half as many runs in road games.
Kyle Hendricks vs. Giants Batters
Kyle Hendricks starts for the Angels today.
His outlook is solid because he loves facing Giants batters.
They slug .315 against him, accumulating nine more strikeouts than hits.
The Angels are wrongly dogged in this matchup given Hendricks' edge and the fact that their ridiculous number of road games has created an unfairly negative perception of them.
Best Bet: First-Half Angels ML at +105 with BetOnline
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 1:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park
Outlook for Detroit's Starter
Detroit starts Casey Mize today.
The Tigers are favored today because Mize enjoys a strong reputation.
But Royals batters do not care about his reputation. They slug .667 against him.
Five different Royals batters slug over .660 with Mize on the mound.
Kansas City's Starter
Seth Lugo starts for the Royals today.
Lugo's ERA is as high as it is because he allowed four earned runs via four home runs in 6.2 innings in Yankee Stadium.
As a fly ball-heavy pitcher, he can be forgiven for yielding a high ERA in Yankee Stadium.
Statcast's park data shows that it is vastly harder to hit home runs in Detroit's ballpark than in New York's.
Indeed, Lugo loves pitching in Detroit. In the Tigers' venue, he is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in three starts.
Lugo vs. Tigers Batters
Lugo thrives against Detroit's batters. They slug .387 against him.
Spencer Torkelson, for example, is so important to Detroit's lineup but has more strikeouts than hits in his career facing Lugo.
His absence of productivity today will be one reason why the Royals lead through five innings.
Best Bet: First-Half Royals ML at +100 with BetOnline
Cincinnati Reds vs. Baltimore Orioles
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards
The Odds
While Baltimore has enjoyed tremendous success in recent regular seasons, the fact is that the Orioles are currently 8-11.
They are being priced like the Baltimore of recent seasons and not like this year's version.
The Orioles do still average a lot of runs per game, but they've also floundered many times. They've scored two runs or fewer in nearly a third of their games.
They now face an elite pitcher in Hunter Greene, who has allowed a combined total of three earned runs in four innings.
Greene will outperform Baltimore's starter, who is making his MLB debut. He is pitching today out of sheer necessity, stepping up from a minor league role in which he was yielding a 2.76 ERA.
This is a tremendous pitching mismatch. Cincinnati's lineup has also shaken off its earlier-season struggles and, partly for this reason, enters today's contest having won five of its last seven games.
The odds, feeling very cheap, do not do justice to how much better Cincinnati is and will be than Baltimore today.
Greene has good endurance, so it is worth trusting him with his huge matchup edge to lead the Reds to a full-game victory.
Best Bet: Reds ML at -116 with BetOnline
San Diego Padres vs. Houston Astros
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Daikin Park
Key Trend
The decisive trend for this game is that Houston is 0-8 following a win.
Houston won its last game, so one must expect it to lose today.
Pitching Mismatch
San Diego will have an easier time scoring runs today.
Houston will struggle to hit Padres starter Michael King with his reliance on a four-seamer, changeup, sinker, and sweeper.
The Astros rank 24th with a .365 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
Houston starts Hayden Wesneski. His two favorite pitches are, by far, his four-seamer and sweeper.
San Diego ranks second with a .513 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
The Padres also have the league's top-ranked bullpen, so the Astros will struggle to hit San Diego's relievers as much as they will struggle to hit San Diego's starter.
Best Bet: Padres ML at -118 with BetOnline
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Angels
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium
Outlook for San Francisco's Starter
Landen Roupp starts for the Giants today.
Primarily, Roupp throws a curveball, sinker, and changeup.
The Angels rank ninth with a .412 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
Upon looking at the Angels' most recent games, it might feel hard to back them. But note the location of those games.
The Angels have played worse on the road than they do at home.
Los Angeles' lineup gets a tremendous boost from playing in its home venue.
This boost was, it is true, not apparent in the team's last game. But that game came against Logan Webb, whose elite ERA and track record against the Angels made him an obvious pitcher to trust.
In each of the Angels' other three home games, they scored at least six runs, whereas they score a little more than half as many runs in road games.
Kyle Hendricks vs. Giants Batters
Kyle Hendricks starts for the Angels today.
His outlook is solid because he loves facing Giants batters.
They slug .315 against him, accumulating nine more strikeouts than hits.
The Angels are wrongly dogged in this matchup given Hendricks' edge and the fact that their ridiculous number of road games has created an unfairly negative perception of them.
Best Bet: First-Half Angels ML at +105 with BetOnline
