2025 NBA Playoffs Best Bets for April 19: Don't Count Out the Timberwolves
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 1 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Giannis' Overstated Track Record
Much hype surrounds Giannis in this matchup given his last bunch of games against the Pacers.
While Giannis' success against Indiana is extensive, it has lessened significantly since the Pacers acquired Pascal Siakam, who has contributed to Giannis' drastic decrease in points per game against the Pacers.
The Importance of Damian Lillard
While Giannis has achieved strong scoring outputs against the Pacers, his great games involved the presence of fellow star Damian Lillard, specifically his ability to stretch the floor as a point guard.
When Siakam as a Toronto Raptor limited Giannis in the postseason years ago, the Bucks responded by acquiring point guard Jrue Holiday. Without Holiday, they rely on Lillard to be the point guard to give Giannis more space to succeed inside the arc. Giannis will be hurt by Lillard's absence.
Indiana Can and Will Limit Giannis
It is no coincidence that Giannis' lowest point total in a game against Indiana this year came when Lillard was least able to stretch the floor via good shooting.
When Milwaukee lost 115-114 to Indiana, Giannis scored 19 points and Lillard converted 4 of 14 field goal attempts.
This is the one regular season meeting that the Pacers won. No doubt, their coaching staff will review their games against Milwaukee and recognize that in their one win they did a great job of limiting Giannis' field goal attempts and his scoring. They will be sure to focus on containing Giannis.
Without contending with Lillard, the Pacers are well-equipped to limit Giannis' scoring not only with Siakam but also with Aaron Nesmith, who, a good perimeter defender who is commonly tasked with guarding the opponent's best player, can use his length to help contain Giannis' drives.
Best Bet: Giannis under 31.5 points at -125 with Bovada
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 3:30 p.m. ET
The Angle
I like the "over" in this game because so many key players are primed to play well.
The strong individual performances of these players reflect important facts about each team that reinforce a play on the "over."
Kawhi Leonard and James Harden's Form
Kawhi Leonard is playing elite basketball right now. In April, he is averaging 26.7 points per game.
Aaron Gordon is expected to spend the most time as Leonard's defender.
While he enjoys a good reputation as a defender, this reputation is outdated. His defensive rating indicates that his level of quality as a defender has declined significantly.
As such, the Nuggets lack someone who can contain Leonard.
James Harden has also been excellent for the Clippers lately, scoring 25.9 points per game in this month.
The Nuggets allow a lot of field goals 5-14 feet from the basket, which is where the Clippers like to operate especially because of Harden and Leonard.
Both players will thrive in these mid-range spaces.
Norman Powell and Jamal Murray
Denver ranks 21st in defensive rating because it lacks quality defenders.
The Nuggets lack somebody who can contain Norman Powell, who has emerged this season as a terrific scorer.
He is averaging 27.8 points per game against the Nuggets, which is six more points than he is scoring overall.
His point total average against Denver is especially impressive because the Nuggets didn't have to worry about Kawhi, who was absent in the games where Powell thrived.
Likewise, Denver point guard Jamal Murray converted at least 50 percent of his field goals in all four of his games against the Clippers this year.
Murray succeeds against the Clippers because on defense they like to force opposing players to score in isolation and Murray is one of the better iso scorers in the league.
Nikola Jokic
Denver star Nikola Jokic's numbers against Clippers' center Ivica Zubac are deflated by what a slumping Jokic did last year.
This season, he has been solidly efficient against the Clippers. Despite Zubac always having played, he is averaging 28.3 points per game against them.
Jokic's scoring is necessary to help Denver offset the liability that he poses on defense.
In particular, as evident in the PPP (points per possession) that he allows, he is one of the worst defenders at guarding the roll man in ball-screen situations.
Facing Jokic, Harden and Zubac will be able to emphasize their two-man game.
Team-Wide Observations
The Clippers have the personnel to exploit Denver's tendency to allow a lot of mid-range field goals. Harden and Leonard will be key here, but Powell will also add a lot of points.
The Clippers face, in Denver, one of the better iso-scoring teams. Jokic will thrive, but Murray provides another example here of a Denver player with a strong outlook tonight.
Guys like Murray and Leonard are only the best examples of players who will succeed offensively in this matchup.
Denver's mid-range defense and Los Angeles' iso-heavy defense will be exploited, leading to an "over."
Best Bet: Over 224 at -110 with BetOnline
Detroit Pistons vs. New York Knicks
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 6 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden
The Spread
Favoring the Knicks by seven in this matchup seems absurd to me.
Sure, the Pistons lack playoff experience. I could see them having a lead late and maybe choking it away. Could they fumble the game and lose straight-up? Sure, that seems realistic to me.
But losing by seven points does not seem realistic to me.
Knicks bettors will need their team to have a clear victory today, but that won't come close to happening.
Detroit's Rim Protection
On offense, the Knicks primarily want to attack the basket.
They attempt the seventh-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Detroit's defense owns a solid outlook tonight because the Pistons feature stout perimeter defenders like Ausar Thompson who help keep opposing ball-handlers from having an easy time driving to the basket.
The Pistons also have solid rim protectors like Isaiah Stewart.
Overall, Detroit allows the fifth-fewest field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Cade Cunningham
Detroit's offense relies on its centerpiece, Cade Cunningham.
New York is going to want to rely especially on OG Anunoby to contain him.
But the Pistons will use ball-screens to negate Anunoby's impact on defense.
Ball-screens help explain why Cunningham's numbers this year are so good with Anunoby guarding him.
Led by Cunningham, the Pistons have a ball-screen-heavy offense. They match up well against a Knicks defense that, by far, allows the most points per game against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.
Takeaway
The Knicks want to attack the basket but won't find comfort inside against Detroit's defense.
Detroit's offense wants to rely on ball-screens and will be able to against New York's ball-screen defense.
Best Bet: Pistons +7 at -107 with BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 8:30 p.m. ET at crypto.com Arena
Luka's New Team
Lakers backers recall the success Luka Doncic had against Minnesota's defense last year.
But Luka was a Maverick. He had an elite iso-scorer for a teammate in Kyrie Irving.
He also had athletic bigs who could attack the basket and connect with him via lobs.
Anthony Edwards could not guard Kyrie, because Kyrie was too fast for Edwards.
Edwards matches up much better against Austin Reaves, who lacks Kyrie's shiftiness and quickness.
The Lakers do not have the sort of bigs that Dallas had. Hence, the Lakers tried to trade for Mark Williams, but that trade didn't end up happening. So, Luka won't be accumulating lobs.
Star Comparison
Jaden McDaniels is a fantastic defender who has enjoyed success limiting Luka's productivity.
He is the All-Defensive Team selection that Los Angeles lacks to guard Anthony Edwards with.
Edwards loves to attack the basket, where the Lakers' interior is thin since Anthony Davis' departure.
Edwards, met by weaker resistance, will outperform Luka.
Depth
The Lakers are supposed to be top-heavy. They are supposed to win with their best players, but Minnesota will have the best player on the court.
The Lakers like to try to focus on limiting the opposing team's best player. They'll do things like more frequently send extra defenders to the basket to keep that player from scoring at the basket.
The problem is that Edwards has a great supporting cast. He is just one reason why Minnesota ranks eighth in offensive rating.
If Edwards is blitzed or for some other reason is forced to pass to a teammate, Los Angeles' defense will be in scramble mode.
Julius Randle, whose playoff history has been undermined by injuries and by the responsibility of being his team's number one option, Naz Reid, McDaniels, and Donte DiVincenzo are all dangerous scorers who averaged over 11 points per game in the regular season.
The Timberwolves have so many able scorers with which to foil any plan that the Lakers may have to beat Minnesota by taking away Edwards.
Rudy Gobert is another option. He is scoring 19.4 points per game this month. His rebounding prowess and his abilities around the rim make him an effective option against a Lakers defense that lacks height.
Gobert has a proven track record as an iso perimeter defender. His playoff footage against the Suns last year provides an example, and his ability to limit PPP (points per possession) when guarding the perimeter in isolation provides more substantial proof.
The Lakers will want to play small-ball and run five-out offense to negate Gobert's impact as a defender and force him off the court.
But the four-time Defensive Player of the Year selection will provide more than his customary elite rim protection, which will do a lot by itself to limit Los Angeles' options on offense, whereas the Lakers miss an elite interior defender like Anthony Davis.
Takeaway
The Timberwolves have too many scoring options with their depth of scorers, which gives them so much flexibility on offense because it allows them to succeed even if the Lakers choose to focus on taking away Edwards.
Edwards, whether by passing to open teammates or by taking advantage of an individual defender guarding him, will be the most impactful player on the court in this game. The Timberwolves will thus be the more top-heavy and the deeper team.
Their collection of strong perimeter defenders, led by McDaniels, and their elite rim protection from Gobert will make scoring difficult for the Lakers, whereas the Lakers lack the personnel to create the same level of difficulty for Minnesota's offense.
Best Bet: Timberwolves +4 at -110 with BetOnline
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 1 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Giannis' Overstated Track Record
Much hype surrounds Giannis in this matchup given his last bunch of games against the Pacers.
While Giannis' success against Indiana is extensive, it has lessened significantly since the Pacers acquired Pascal Siakam, who has contributed to Giannis' drastic decrease in points per game against the Pacers.
The Importance of Damian Lillard
While Giannis has achieved strong scoring outputs against the Pacers, his great games involved the presence of fellow star Damian Lillard, specifically his ability to stretch the floor as a point guard.
When Siakam as a Toronto Raptor limited Giannis in the postseason years ago, the Bucks responded by acquiring point guard Jrue Holiday. Without Holiday, they rely on Lillard to be the point guard to give Giannis more space to succeed inside the arc. Giannis will be hurt by Lillard's absence.
Indiana Can and Will Limit Giannis
It is no coincidence that Giannis' lowest point total in a game against Indiana this year came when Lillard was least able to stretch the floor via good shooting.
When Milwaukee lost 115-114 to Indiana, Giannis scored 19 points and Lillard converted 4 of 14 field goal attempts.
This is the one regular season meeting that the Pacers won. No doubt, their coaching staff will review their games against Milwaukee and recognize that in their one win they did a great job of limiting Giannis' field goal attempts and his scoring. They will be sure to focus on containing Giannis.
Without contending with Lillard, the Pacers are well-equipped to limit Giannis' scoring not only with Siakam but also with Aaron Nesmith, who, a good perimeter defender who is commonly tasked with guarding the opponent's best player, can use his length to help contain Giannis' drives.
Best Bet: Giannis under 31.5 points at -125 with Bovada
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 3:30 p.m. ET
The Angle
I like the "over" in this game because so many key players are primed to play well.
The strong individual performances of these players reflect important facts about each team that reinforce a play on the "over."
Kawhi Leonard and James Harden's Form
Kawhi Leonard is playing elite basketball right now. In April, he is averaging 26.7 points per game.
Aaron Gordon is expected to spend the most time as Leonard's defender.
While he enjoys a good reputation as a defender, this reputation is outdated. His defensive rating indicates that his level of quality as a defender has declined significantly.
As such, the Nuggets lack someone who can contain Leonard.
James Harden has also been excellent for the Clippers lately, scoring 25.9 points per game in this month.
The Nuggets allow a lot of field goals 5-14 feet from the basket, which is where the Clippers like to operate especially because of Harden and Leonard.
Both players will thrive in these mid-range spaces.
Norman Powell and Jamal Murray
Denver ranks 21st in defensive rating because it lacks quality defenders.
The Nuggets lack somebody who can contain Norman Powell, who has emerged this season as a terrific scorer.
He is averaging 27.8 points per game against the Nuggets, which is six more points than he is scoring overall.
His point total average against Denver is especially impressive because the Nuggets didn't have to worry about Kawhi, who was absent in the games where Powell thrived.
Likewise, Denver point guard Jamal Murray converted at least 50 percent of his field goals in all four of his games against the Clippers this year.
Murray succeeds against the Clippers because on defense they like to force opposing players to score in isolation and Murray is one of the better iso scorers in the league.
Nikola Jokic
Denver star Nikola Jokic's numbers against Clippers' center Ivica Zubac are deflated by what a slumping Jokic did last year.
This season, he has been solidly efficient against the Clippers. Despite Zubac always having played, he is averaging 28.3 points per game against them.
Jokic's scoring is necessary to help Denver offset the liability that he poses on defense.
In particular, as evident in the PPP (points per possession) that he allows, he is one of the worst defenders at guarding the roll man in ball-screen situations.
Facing Jokic, Harden and Zubac will be able to emphasize their two-man game.
Team-Wide Observations
The Clippers have the personnel to exploit Denver's tendency to allow a lot of mid-range field goals. Harden and Leonard will be key here, but Powell will also add a lot of points.
The Clippers face, in Denver, one of the better iso-scoring teams. Jokic will thrive, but Murray provides another example here of a Denver player with a strong outlook tonight.
Guys like Murray and Leonard are only the best examples of players who will succeed offensively in this matchup.
Denver's mid-range defense and Los Angeles' iso-heavy defense will be exploited, leading to an "over."
Best Bet: Over 224 at -110 with BetOnline
Detroit Pistons vs. New York Knicks
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 6 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden
The Spread
Favoring the Knicks by seven in this matchup seems absurd to me.
Sure, the Pistons lack playoff experience. I could see them having a lead late and maybe choking it away. Could they fumble the game and lose straight-up? Sure, that seems realistic to me.
But losing by seven points does not seem realistic to me.
Knicks bettors will need their team to have a clear victory today, but that won't come close to happening.
Detroit's Rim Protection
On offense, the Knicks primarily want to attack the basket.
They attempt the seventh-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Detroit's defense owns a solid outlook tonight because the Pistons feature stout perimeter defenders like Ausar Thompson who help keep opposing ball-handlers from having an easy time driving to the basket.
The Pistons also have solid rim protectors like Isaiah Stewart.
Overall, Detroit allows the fifth-fewest field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Cade Cunningham
Detroit's offense relies on its centerpiece, Cade Cunningham.
New York is going to want to rely especially on OG Anunoby to contain him.
But the Pistons will use ball-screens to negate Anunoby's impact on defense.
Ball-screens help explain why Cunningham's numbers this year are so good with Anunoby guarding him.
Led by Cunningham, the Pistons have a ball-screen-heavy offense. They match up well against a Knicks defense that, by far, allows the most points per game against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.
Takeaway
The Knicks want to attack the basket but won't find comfort inside against Detroit's defense.
Detroit's offense wants to rely on ball-screens and will be able to against New York's ball-screen defense.
Best Bet: Pistons +7 at -107 with BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Saturday, April 19, 2025 at 8:30 p.m. ET at crypto.com Arena
Luka's New Team
Lakers backers recall the success Luka Doncic had against Minnesota's defense last year.
But Luka was a Maverick. He had an elite iso-scorer for a teammate in Kyrie Irving.
He also had athletic bigs who could attack the basket and connect with him via lobs.
Anthony Edwards could not guard Kyrie, because Kyrie was too fast for Edwards.
Edwards matches up much better against Austin Reaves, who lacks Kyrie's shiftiness and quickness.
The Lakers do not have the sort of bigs that Dallas had. Hence, the Lakers tried to trade for Mark Williams, but that trade didn't end up happening. So, Luka won't be accumulating lobs.
Star Comparison
Jaden McDaniels is a fantastic defender who has enjoyed success limiting Luka's productivity.
He is the All-Defensive Team selection that Los Angeles lacks to guard Anthony Edwards with.
Edwards loves to attack the basket, where the Lakers' interior is thin since Anthony Davis' departure.
Edwards, met by weaker resistance, will outperform Luka.
Depth
The Lakers are supposed to be top-heavy. They are supposed to win with their best players, but Minnesota will have the best player on the court.
The Lakers like to try to focus on limiting the opposing team's best player. They'll do things like more frequently send extra defenders to the basket to keep that player from scoring at the basket.
The problem is that Edwards has a great supporting cast. He is just one reason why Minnesota ranks eighth in offensive rating.
If Edwards is blitzed or for some other reason is forced to pass to a teammate, Los Angeles' defense will be in scramble mode.
Julius Randle, whose playoff history has been undermined by injuries and by the responsibility of being his team's number one option, Naz Reid, McDaniels, and Donte DiVincenzo are all dangerous scorers who averaged over 11 points per game in the regular season.
The Timberwolves have so many able scorers with which to foil any plan that the Lakers may have to beat Minnesota by taking away Edwards.
Rudy Gobert is another option. He is scoring 19.4 points per game this month. His rebounding prowess and his abilities around the rim make him an effective option against a Lakers defense that lacks height.
Gobert has a proven track record as an iso perimeter defender. His playoff footage against the Suns last year provides an example, and his ability to limit PPP (points per possession) when guarding the perimeter in isolation provides more substantial proof.
The Lakers will want to play small-ball and run five-out offense to negate Gobert's impact as a defender and force him off the court.
But the four-time Defensive Player of the Year selection will provide more than his customary elite rim protection, which will do a lot by itself to limit Los Angeles' options on offense, whereas the Lakers miss an elite interior defender like Anthony Davis.
Takeaway
The Timberwolves have too many scoring options with their depth of scorers, which gives them so much flexibility on offense because it allows them to succeed even if the Lakers choose to focus on taking away Edwards.
Edwards, whether by passing to open teammates or by taking advantage of an individual defender guarding him, will be the most impactful player on the court in this game. The Timberwolves will thus be the more top-heavy and the deeper team.
Their collection of strong perimeter defenders, led by McDaniels, and their elite rim protection from Gobert will make scoring difficult for the Lakers, whereas the Lakers lack the personnel to create the same level of difficulty for Minnesota's offense.
Best Bet: Timberwolves +4 at -110 with BetOnline
