2005 Season
69-42-2 (62%)
2006 Season
5-3 (63%)
Ohio State OVER 10 wins (0-0)
What is up everyone? Well it is finally here- time to get it cracking!
Tennessee + 3 (buy the hook) I will start with Cal... They have the potential to be one of the top teams in the country this year and have a good chance to win the Pac 10. Since his take over 5 years ago, Jeff Tedford has completely turned to Cal program around. With this being the first year where only his players are here, Cal backers expect big things. The top scoring defense in the Pac 10 from a year ago returns 8 starters and looks to have another good year. Offensively they lost 3 lineman to the draft. A Duke transfer, Tyler Krieg should help solidify this line. Andrew Cameron, if he can stay healthy, will also help this OL. Cal is loaded in the skilled positions (WR, TE, and RB). At QB it looks more and more like Nate Longshore will be the man. He originally was the starter last year before breaking his ankle. He put up decent stats in one game BUT it was against Sacramento State! This passing attack finished last in the Pac 10 a year ago. Tennessee is coming off one of their worse years in the modern era. This usually great football power, went from pre-season Top 5 to losing to Vanderbilt and not making a bowl. 3 of their 6 losses could be pointed to the fact of missed opportunities. They needed 1 first down against Vanderbilt to seal the game and could not. Against Bama they fumbled a sure TD run and against SC missed opps gave them a 1 pt. loss I believe. Defensively this team is absolutely stacked. The DL lost players from a year ago but have tons of talent to step in. Jason Herril is a big kid that will anchor this DL. Scouting reports say that he had a great spring and is ready to produce this Fall. Along with this Volunteer LB crew the secondary has a lot of talent. Offensively, this team has many questions. The RB slot is not one of them. THey have a 3 headed monster if you will; with Arian Foster(100+ yards in all 5 starts a year ago), Montario Hardesty (originally ahead of Foster but blew out his knee), and LaMarcus Coker ( a third back that underwent off-season surgery). At WR there are many upper-class-man fighting for the jobs. My favorite out of these is junior Cutcliffe ( he coached here before going to Miss for awhile; correct me if I am wrong). The coaches are pleased with his progression. BOTTOM LINE: Cal is a good team that ultimately will be ranked higher than Tennessee IMO. I do not think Cal is ready to win a game of this magnitude this early in the season. They are traveling 2500 miles to play before one of the toughest crowds in the nation. With an unproven OL and a question at QB I expect CAL to struggle. Couple these things with the talent on the defensive side of the ball for Tenn. and I expect a low scoring victory for Tenn
Tennessee/ Cal UNDER 43.5 - Cal had the best scoring defense in the Pac 10 last year. They return 8 starters from that team. Tennessee returns one of the better defenses in the nation from a year ago. CAL has an unproven line and a QB that not much is known about. Couple these, with some other reasons already stated in this thread and I look for a 21-17 OR 17-14 type game.
Utah State + 13 OK here is a little info about both teams first: Wyoming has 12 returning starts ( 6 on both side of the ball). This team had a bowl win in 2004 and started off last year with a 4-1 record. From what I remember and have read, they started having many TOs. They lost their last 6 games of the year. I think they had 7 or 8 turnovers in one of those games! Defensively they are switching to a new defense (3-4). They made the switch because they feel they recruit quality LBs. They do expect many growing pains in this switch. They have no experience at QB but 1 and 2 both had huge high school careers. There are problems within the RBs. Not sure if they have settled it but i know the freshman that set some school records was pissed about not being named the number 1 back in the Spring. Instead he was slated as a "co starter". They have one returning receiver but no major yards coming back. They have a highly touted freshmen in Derrick Levy that they will probably throw into the tank. Their OL is strong and should help this inexperienced offense. Defensively they are strong at DL and with the LB core. Secondary is hit up by Derrick Martin(late rd. pick by BAL i think) going pro instead of playing his senior year. They also have one of the top return men in the MW coming back. Utah State was 3-8 last year. They return 14 starters (8 on offense 6 on defense). Their coach came in last year and did what a high school coach would do. He dumped the seniors and started all of the freshman. Utah State returns 6 defenders from a team that finished 4th in the WAC in defense. They have 3 LBs returning along with both DT and one man in the secondary. FS Terrence Washington appears to be the best player on this defense. He is an NFL talent if he remains healthy. Surrounding him will be a youth movement like last year. Offensively Leon Jackson will return as the starter. Throughout the season I would watch this guy to make sure he is healthy....he is not that durable because of his runners mentality. His athletic ability should cause problems for Wyoming. Last year this teams back combined for less than 600 yards. Newcomer JUCO) who rushed for over 1100 yards and 14 TDs last year, will help this team. The WR core is deadly and will compete as one of the top groups in the WAC. BOTTOM LINE: I think 13 is way too many points in this game. Both teams have many questions and are not that good. Honestly, right now I think Utah State is the better team and think they could win this game SU
North Texas + 41.5 OVER 54- Now before anyone jumps all over me in this game, let me explain. Throughout the year I always look for these types of games. There is SOOOO much value in playing both of these it is insane. Do I think North Texas will cover the 41 point spread? I think they can BUT I am not too positive of it. The reason I played these 2 plays is simple. There is a VERY Good chance that I will not lose money here. To guarantee at least a split, NT must just score one TD. If they score 7 points, Texas must score 49 to cover the spread. With a final score of 49-7 Texas covers the spread BUT the total hits. There are only a number of instances where I would lose both bets. If Texas wins 42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53, or 53-0. And there are a couple of other scenarios if North Texas scores less than a TD. The main question we must consider is will North Texas score a TD? I say yes they will. NT had some bad offensive numbers last year. Most of that was due in part to the beginning of the season. The final 6 games they played like a differnt team on the offensive side of the ball. They were never shut out last year and scored 28,24,19, and 23 points in their last 4 games (yes they were shitty teams). They get 9 starters back on offense and should be a decent unit this year. Texas lost 2 all americans on defense. Yes, like Ohio State, they have stars waiting to emerge but they may be shaky on day 1. BOTTOM LINE: these are just two great value plays IMO
OSU/N ILL UNDER 50 - OK I originally was on the OVER in this game and this is what I initially thought: NIU returns 7 starters from a team that ranked 2nd in scoring defense last year. With that being said, they have lost their two best players. One anchored the line and the other held the secondary together. With no true star or proven "leader" on this defense, I look for Ohio State to have a field day. Even last year with a better defense, this team surrendered many points to the high-profile offenses (Michigan 33 pts., NW 38, Akron 48, Miami OH 27, Akron 31). Their stats came from the likes of WMU (7 pts), Kent State (3 pts), Eastern Michigan (8 pts), and Tennessee Tech (3pts). Ohio State on the defensive side of the ball is untested. After 4 players on the defensive side of the ball decided to leave school early, OSU only returns 2 starters. Both of these guys are monsters, but both are on the DL. Ohio State has tons of track stars and 5 star prospects that they will be throwing into the mix so I would not worry about this defense too much. At the same time, this defense has the makings of a big play defense. They will give up yards and points but will have sacks and INTs throughout the year IMO. NIU returns the nations leading running back in Garrett Wolfe (1580 yards 16 TDs). Also they have a good QB in Phil Horvath. This team led the MAC in offense last year, and has many weapons returning. Everyone knows about OSUs offense so I will not go into much detail about that. One thing that worries me in this game is if OSU gets a big lead early- they might completely close down the playbook so they do not show Texas anything. BOTTOM LINE: This game has all the makings of a track meet. 2 powerful offenses vs. 2 inexperienced defenses. I can see Ohio State covering this mark by themselves. But now the more I think about it; the more I like the UNDER. I think both teams will try to get the run going early and throughout this game. It has rained in Columbus all day and a lot of rain is expected tomorrow morning. Also winds are expected up around 15 mph. I know a lot of times this favors the defense because of the TOs but I do not see this in this game. You have 3 premier backs in this game and I expect them to see a lot of touches. Both QBs are efficient and do not turn the ball over much. I think the UNDER is the play here!
Well so many more thoughts and plays but not much time. I am leaving for Columbus in a couple of to root on the Buckeyes
. Here are my other plays for the day:
Hawaii + 15.5
Rutgers + 5.5
Utah + 3.5 (hook)
Pitt - 3 (hook)
Nebraska - 23
LSU - 30
Bama/Hawaii UNDER
Oklahoma/ UAB UNDER 42
TEASER:
USC - 2 Indiana PK
69-42-2 (62%)
2006 Season
5-3 (63%)
Ohio State OVER 10 wins (0-0)
What is up everyone? Well it is finally here- time to get it cracking!
Tennessee + 3 (buy the hook) I will start with Cal... They have the potential to be one of the top teams in the country this year and have a good chance to win the Pac 10. Since his take over 5 years ago, Jeff Tedford has completely turned to Cal program around. With this being the first year where only his players are here, Cal backers expect big things. The top scoring defense in the Pac 10 from a year ago returns 8 starters and looks to have another good year. Offensively they lost 3 lineman to the draft. A Duke transfer, Tyler Krieg should help solidify this line. Andrew Cameron, if he can stay healthy, will also help this OL. Cal is loaded in the skilled positions (WR, TE, and RB). At QB it looks more and more like Nate Longshore will be the man. He originally was the starter last year before breaking his ankle. He put up decent stats in one game BUT it was against Sacramento State! This passing attack finished last in the Pac 10 a year ago. Tennessee is coming off one of their worse years in the modern era. This usually great football power, went from pre-season Top 5 to losing to Vanderbilt and not making a bowl. 3 of their 6 losses could be pointed to the fact of missed opportunities. They needed 1 first down against Vanderbilt to seal the game and could not. Against Bama they fumbled a sure TD run and against SC missed opps gave them a 1 pt. loss I believe. Defensively this team is absolutely stacked. The DL lost players from a year ago but have tons of talent to step in. Jason Herril is a big kid that will anchor this DL. Scouting reports say that he had a great spring and is ready to produce this Fall. Along with this Volunteer LB crew the secondary has a lot of talent. Offensively, this team has many questions. The RB slot is not one of them. THey have a 3 headed monster if you will; with Arian Foster(100+ yards in all 5 starts a year ago), Montario Hardesty (originally ahead of Foster but blew out his knee), and LaMarcus Coker ( a third back that underwent off-season surgery). At WR there are many upper-class-man fighting for the jobs. My favorite out of these is junior Cutcliffe ( he coached here before going to Miss for awhile; correct me if I am wrong). The coaches are pleased with his progression. BOTTOM LINE: Cal is a good team that ultimately will be ranked higher than Tennessee IMO. I do not think Cal is ready to win a game of this magnitude this early in the season. They are traveling 2500 miles to play before one of the toughest crowds in the nation. With an unproven OL and a question at QB I expect CAL to struggle. Couple these things with the talent on the defensive side of the ball for Tenn. and I expect a low scoring victory for Tenn
Tennessee/ Cal UNDER 43.5 - Cal had the best scoring defense in the Pac 10 last year. They return 8 starters from that team. Tennessee returns one of the better defenses in the nation from a year ago. CAL has an unproven line and a QB that not much is known about. Couple these, with some other reasons already stated in this thread and I look for a 21-17 OR 17-14 type game.
Utah State + 13 OK here is a little info about both teams first: Wyoming has 12 returning starts ( 6 on both side of the ball). This team had a bowl win in 2004 and started off last year with a 4-1 record. From what I remember and have read, they started having many TOs. They lost their last 6 games of the year. I think they had 7 or 8 turnovers in one of those games! Defensively they are switching to a new defense (3-4). They made the switch because they feel they recruit quality LBs. They do expect many growing pains in this switch. They have no experience at QB but 1 and 2 both had huge high school careers. There are problems within the RBs. Not sure if they have settled it but i know the freshman that set some school records was pissed about not being named the number 1 back in the Spring. Instead he was slated as a "co starter". They have one returning receiver but no major yards coming back. They have a highly touted freshmen in Derrick Levy that they will probably throw into the tank. Their OL is strong and should help this inexperienced offense. Defensively they are strong at DL and with the LB core. Secondary is hit up by Derrick Martin(late rd. pick by BAL i think) going pro instead of playing his senior year. They also have one of the top return men in the MW coming back. Utah State was 3-8 last year. They return 14 starters (8 on offense 6 on defense). Their coach came in last year and did what a high school coach would do. He dumped the seniors and started all of the freshman. Utah State returns 6 defenders from a team that finished 4th in the WAC in defense. They have 3 LBs returning along with both DT and one man in the secondary. FS Terrence Washington appears to be the best player on this defense. He is an NFL talent if he remains healthy. Surrounding him will be a youth movement like last year. Offensively Leon Jackson will return as the starter. Throughout the season I would watch this guy to make sure he is healthy....he is not that durable because of his runners mentality. His athletic ability should cause problems for Wyoming. Last year this teams back combined for less than 600 yards. Newcomer JUCO) who rushed for over 1100 yards and 14 TDs last year, will help this team. The WR core is deadly and will compete as one of the top groups in the WAC. BOTTOM LINE: I think 13 is way too many points in this game. Both teams have many questions and are not that good. Honestly, right now I think Utah State is the better team and think they could win this game SU
North Texas + 41.5 OVER 54- Now before anyone jumps all over me in this game, let me explain. Throughout the year I always look for these types of games. There is SOOOO much value in playing both of these it is insane. Do I think North Texas will cover the 41 point spread? I think they can BUT I am not too positive of it. The reason I played these 2 plays is simple. There is a VERY Good chance that I will not lose money here. To guarantee at least a split, NT must just score one TD. If they score 7 points, Texas must score 49 to cover the spread. With a final score of 49-7 Texas covers the spread BUT the total hits. There are only a number of instances where I would lose both bets. If Texas wins 42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53, or 53-0. And there are a couple of other scenarios if North Texas scores less than a TD. The main question we must consider is will North Texas score a TD? I say yes they will. NT had some bad offensive numbers last year. Most of that was due in part to the beginning of the season. The final 6 games they played like a differnt team on the offensive side of the ball. They were never shut out last year and scored 28,24,19, and 23 points in their last 4 games (yes they were shitty teams). They get 9 starters back on offense and should be a decent unit this year. Texas lost 2 all americans on defense. Yes, like Ohio State, they have stars waiting to emerge but they may be shaky on day 1. BOTTOM LINE: these are just two great value plays IMO
OSU/N ILL UNDER 50 - OK I originally was on the OVER in this game and this is what I initially thought: NIU returns 7 starters from a team that ranked 2nd in scoring defense last year. With that being said, they have lost their two best players. One anchored the line and the other held the secondary together. With no true star or proven "leader" on this defense, I look for Ohio State to have a field day. Even last year with a better defense, this team surrendered many points to the high-profile offenses (Michigan 33 pts., NW 38, Akron 48, Miami OH 27, Akron 31). Their stats came from the likes of WMU (7 pts), Kent State (3 pts), Eastern Michigan (8 pts), and Tennessee Tech (3pts). Ohio State on the defensive side of the ball is untested. After 4 players on the defensive side of the ball decided to leave school early, OSU only returns 2 starters. Both of these guys are monsters, but both are on the DL. Ohio State has tons of track stars and 5 star prospects that they will be throwing into the mix so I would not worry about this defense too much. At the same time, this defense has the makings of a big play defense. They will give up yards and points but will have sacks and INTs throughout the year IMO. NIU returns the nations leading running back in Garrett Wolfe (1580 yards 16 TDs). Also they have a good QB in Phil Horvath. This team led the MAC in offense last year, and has many weapons returning. Everyone knows about OSUs offense so I will not go into much detail about that. One thing that worries me in this game is if OSU gets a big lead early- they might completely close down the playbook so they do not show Texas anything. BOTTOM LINE: This game has all the makings of a track meet. 2 powerful offenses vs. 2 inexperienced defenses. I can see Ohio State covering this mark by themselves. But now the more I think about it; the more I like the UNDER. I think both teams will try to get the run going early and throughout this game. It has rained in Columbus all day and a lot of rain is expected tomorrow morning. Also winds are expected up around 15 mph. I know a lot of times this favors the defense because of the TOs but I do not see this in this game. You have 3 premier backs in this game and I expect them to see a lot of touches. Both QBs are efficient and do not turn the ball over much. I think the UNDER is the play here!
Well so many more thoughts and plays but not much time. I am leaving for Columbus in a couple of to root on the Buckeyes
Hawaii + 15.5
Rutgers + 5.5
Utah + 3.5 (hook)
Pitt - 3 (hook)
Nebraska - 23
LSU - 30
Bama/Hawaii UNDER
Oklahoma/ UAB UNDER 42
TEASER:
USC - 2 Indiana PK
