Saturday MLB

[tee*dub]

LW 7-5, up about 3 units (+1395)

TW 5-1, up almost 13 units (+6400)

Total last couple weeks; 12-6, (+7795)


__________________________________________________

Haven't played a top unit dog in awhile . Nice to hit it yesterday in my only play. Played out exactly as I thought it would at least from the Cleveland end..Purcey is a little better pitcher than I gave him credit for. Nut was right. Still worked out for 6 units to the good.

5-1 on the week so far. Decent. Selective.

One play so far:

Red Sox -135, 2 units.. WIN

Will definately be with the public on this one.. No long write-up but I did look at it very closely.. Big pitching mismatch and Boston bounces back IMO.. First time I have bet DiceK as I really thought he had issues especially right after he came back.. Looks to be healthy and Boston needs a W here badly.. Contreras should cooperate.

Games I am looking at:

Minny --love Liriano and will be looking to play him until people realize he is actually as good if not better than before.

I normally don't play real big dogs and if I do they are too insignificant to post on these pages but several good pitchers are getting huge numbers today:

Byrd- Clev
Redding- Wash
Wellenmyer- Stl

and to a lesser extent, Snell- Pitt

:cheers:

 

[The Farm]

on it as well. BOL

 

[Blue_Chip]

Even the public wins every now and again

GL tee

 

[jwk1]

I like Byrd today.

GL with the redsox

 

[SportsNut]

Thanks Tee. Certainly wish I had the chance to play ARLs as CLE would have been a play for me -1.5 yesterday. Happy I hit the ML though thanks to some good insight from you and HereWeGo. Only really pissed I stayed away from the total as I was scared the number jumped to 10.5 . I passed on 3 UNDERS because of moves yesterday @ Wrigley , @ Camden @ Toronto and unfortunately all 3 cashed . Which makes me like 7-0 last 2 days in passes...uhh..

Anyway GL. Really not sure what I am playing . Torn on the big chalk , attractive dogs play . Although really like Tor ML the most of the biggies with Brett Myers and Philly a close 2nd . Byrd's day splits(lost all 5 starts , 7+ ERA and 10HRs allowed in 27.2 inn) and road splits are poor but his career track record on turf and indoors is very solid especially in comparision to his opposite numbers . Snell another guy who just doesnt seem to allow his a chance a team to win on the road with an 8+ ERA. Before he got sent down Myers was pretty solid at home and continues to progress each start IMO since his recall. Even like Sheets as I think Wash lineup will struggle with power pitchers and think MILW sort ofslowly turned the corner @ Cincy . Think Lannan despite being LH could offer more value on Sunday vs Parra. With Big Z his track vs STL is the sacry part . He has won 9 straight starts since a late 2005 loss @ Busch 2-1 . In those 10 starts just 15 runs allowed but even better just 11 earned and only 1 time did he allow more then 2 runs which it was 4 but half unearned. Never went less then 6 innings and dealing 70.1 inn meant he avg 7 ( so avgs 1.1 earned run / 1.5 runs in 7 inn vs STL ) . Just hard to pass on him even when STL outplayed CHI yesterday and still managed to lose . Cards just lose the bullpen war to Cubbies on papare badly IMO. Which Wellenemyer is probably good for 6 inn quality innings leaving questions for the final 3 but he looked good on Sunday but then again Philly making alot of pitchers look good past 7 games or so.

Might better off laying chalk with LAA or Det even...who knows havent decided on much ....GL:cheers:

Also while some dont like the idea of losing value would say CLE +1.5 does have value with two weak offenses and Jays struggle to score vs CLE in 2008 with 5 runs in 5 games which 3 were in extra innings. Had STL +1.5 and Big Z has been in some close low scoring games vs STL but again the pen...

 

[TarHeel7703]

GL today Tee, I like Liriano too :cheers:

 

[Satyr]

GL TW

 

[chancedog]

BOL Tee-dub,
Dice-K always makes me nervous averaging 5+ walks per nine but seems to get himself out of the jams. He has limited his walks over his last three strarts but I consider Chicago hiters to be smart, patient batters . I don't have the stats to back that up but if Dice-K can't make to through the sixth? It could be trouble for Boston. That said I'm leaning on the over.

 

[chancedog]

WSOX giving up 6.6 runs per game over the last month, including 19 unearned runs over 24 games

 

[Mags]

Played Boston and STL, GL bro.

 

[SportsNut]

:cheers:Actually another one I did look at was KC ML or +1.5 RL. Played some +1.5 already before it jumped up.

Liriano getting way to much credit IMO. If you notice the best game he pitched before his demotion to AAA was CLE so it was no suprise he did well vs them on Sunday IMO. Also CLE is not very good vs LHP look at the numbers its ugly and David Purcey sort of proved my point yesterday .

If you go back to the RSox Game 1 thread (discussion thread I mean from that day, the series opener ) you will say I talked about how KC was struggling vs RHP and its recent explosiuon vs buerhle and Richard was partly due to the fact they were LH and KC was hitting LH very well .

Since losing 1-0 @ Zona when Grienke opposed him the Royals are 12-3 vs LHSP . Losing at home to Kenny Rogers in what I labeled the ULTIMATE revenge series as KC had swept them twice in 2008 already so it was NO MERCY IMO! Also KC is 24-21 since that day granted alot of IL play in there which I tend to overlook as a positove for AL teams since they dominated in 08 ( outscored the NL by 1 run per game avg !! ). Losing @ Chi to Buerhle mostly because Grienke got shelled (9-5 game) and also losing at home to Kazmir 5-3 but Kaz was medicore by his standards (5 inn 7 h 2runs) also opposed Hovechar (#5 SP vs #1 SP always tough).

6-2 at home (2-0 in IL play vs COL) since 6/13/2008 (11-7 all season but 10-4 L14 since May1st) vsLHP

Odd stat Grienke 7-3 with two 1 run losses on the road when opposing a LHSP {so 9-1 +1.5 RL} ( lost @ Zona 1-0 vs Davis in 16 innings , lost 6-5 @ Oak vs Greg Smith , lost @ Wsox vs Buerhle 9-5). Also odd is his past 10 starts starting with the game @ Zona he has opposed 7 LHP including that one and gone 5-2 (6-1 +1.5 RL)

Grienke has 3 starts vs Minny since 2007 and two are very solid . With the poor one being in early April 2007 .

KC entire current roster is 18-77 vs him with just 3 xbhs (all two baggers) . Including 8bbs 10Ks and 8 rbis. Minor success for Redmond 3-5 , Lamb 2-3 and Harris 1-2 (haha..) while the M & M boyz are 7-40 career against him. To which those 3 XBHs came from teh M&M boyz back in his lone poor start in early 2007 vs them.

Dont see Minny playing good ball past 7 games coming into this at 4-3. Start with game @ Cle vs Sowers who was excellent but his pen blew it and offense did zip vs Blackburn as well , they lost at home 5-1 to Byrd , then won 6-2 vs Matt Ginter with Liriano and remember CLE doesnt hit LHP , they lost @ Seattle in consecutive games due to there pen mostly and won the last game to avoid the sweep. Yesterdsy they escaped with a win as KC could not get a big hit and to be honest KC does struggle vs Minny with only 2 wins so far in 2008. Think game ended with the bases loaded and in teh 8th they hstranded 2 runners . Twins scored only 3 runs in the 3rd inning of which 2 came on a bases loaded groundout with an error plating 2 runners ! KC stranded 2 in teh third inn , had a leadoff single erased by a DP in the 5th , after plating1 in the 6th with 2 on Breslow came in to retire Gload a huge out , in the 7th a 2out error gave KC life after a hit and passed ball they had 2nd & 3rd but Teahen Kd , and b9th 2 out bases loaded and Dejesus up ...groundout ....so narrow lose IMO....

Kinda sucks Mahay has plantar facitis as is dayto day and struggling when he does pitch but Twins PEN is statistically poor on teh road. How bad??
6.25 ERA and 1.62 WHIP-118 runs /110 er in 158.1 inn

Last thing Grienke @ Home: 9 starts team is 7-2 he is 4-1
2.93 ERA , .290 OBP , 1.14 WHIP ....pretty damn solid 61.1 inn in 9 starts as well which is about 6.2 on avg

To be honest so baffled how Minny could be favored here . Just dont see it but also though coming in Twins win the series . So do they win here or tmrw is the question . Baker vs Meche ...Meche has led KC to wins inhis past 6 starts but he scuffled vs Boston early and recovered and is 9-1 past 10 starts. However he did lose 2 early April starts to Minny which was his worst MONTH and has been much better since it ended. Last year despite pitching well he also dropped 2 of 3 to Minny . Baker though has ben filthy vs KC 2.98 ERA , 0.87 WHIP , .211 BAA- 7 starts 48.1 inn equals nearly 7 inn per start and just 16 runs allowed about 2.33 ...so good chance with KC struggles vs RHP they dont crack 3 runs ...Bakers own 2 excellent starts @ KC and one medicore at best one which he did manage to guide KC to a win in late 2007 after two dazzling home start vs them where he went 17 inn allowing ONLY 3 hits !

Just dont see how KC isnt -120 to -130 here and expect they are about that tmrw which will create value IMO on Twins...

 

[tee*dub]

Played Boston and STL, GL bro.

Love the Boston Play, not so much the cardinals one.. They used alot of bullpen yesterday. The one guy who is rested? Izzy..

Having said that, I really don't think the Cards get swept. Just doesn't work that way in this rivalry.. Tommorow is probably the best shot but need to watch how the bullpens are used today.. If Cards go into Sunday night with a tired bullpen, meaning they have to use Perez and Mcelland today (likely), the play is off.. Carpenter as good as he looked last time out is still on a 80-90 pitch count tops..

What number did you get on the cards? Think if you played the cards plus number both today and tommorow, you would make money..gl bro

 

[SportsNut]

Also agree Tee about STL . Still dont think they are playing any type of good ball lately though . Had 2 units on them +1.5 yesterday and 1 on the ML . They should have won because they had more opportunities but fucked up to many key situations and as crazy as it seems it might just be smart to ptch around Pujols and Ludwick and see who does something . The turning point was the6th . If yo recall man on third suprising wlaked Pujols intentionally(because Ludwick so HOT) and wound up walking Ludwick to load the bases . Glaus hits a flyball where the runner is thrown out at home. Huge rally averted . Think the pissed a chance away in the 4th or 5th as well .

Anyway Cubs got 2 runs from Edmonds solo shots who is monster in day games ....

Dempster though very good had previos trouble vs STL but little current work vs STL lineup . Cubs weakness clearly good power RHP and we see it constantly . Carpenter looks soliid and could go maybe even 7 innings. He went 5on 53 pitches last time...so think better spot is Sunday for them...

Again as the pen for STL such an issue and would expect they have to work today . If losing though could rest the key arms though

 

[tee*dub]

Anyway Cubs got 2 runs from Edmonds solo shots who is monster in day games ....

Expect some fireworks in todays game related to Edmunds flipping the bat towards Cardinal dugout out and staring down Larussa.. Punk play IMO..Crowds at his STL restaurant should be slimmer going forward .:nono:

Agree with all your thoughts NUT. I'll be watching todays game closely for a potential play tommorow..Looks like Ankiel is in Lineup today btw.. Changes entire approach of the batting order

 

[tee*dub]

Wow- Boston up to 149... :36_19_2:

If I had this at top unit I would be tempted to take the middle money..

hope the public is right..

 

[SportsNut]

Crazy thing about STL and how huge Ankiel is ....Glaus vs Cubbies in 2008:

0-29 with 12ks !

Cardinals third baseman Troy Glaus went 0-for-5 Friday, and is hitless in 29 at-bats while striking out 12 times against the Cubs this season..

 

[nawlins51]

GL today.

 

[Mags]

Love the Boston Play, not so much the cardinals one.. They used alot of bullpen yesterday. The one guy who is rested? Izzy..

Having said that, I really don't think the Cards get swept. Just doesn't work that way in this rivalry.. Tommorow is probably the best shot but need to watch how the bullpens are used today.. If Cards go into Sunday night with a tired bullpen, meaning they have to use Perez and Mcelland today (likely), the play is off.. Carpenter as good as he looked last time out is still on a 80-90 pitch count tops..

What number did you get on the cards? Think if you played the cards plus number both today and tommorow, you would make money..gl bro

Played them (STL) @ +175, Zambrano's gotta lose some time right!?!?! BOL to you with your plays as well.

 

[tee*dub]

Ankiel not in the lineup btw.. Available only to pinch hit

 

[SportsNut]

Looks good so far for STL . Have to admit the odd line movement scared me . If Lilly is 165 then the -200 number made sense but logic doesnt always win out either . Guess they set us up yesterday making STL look attractive and with them losing 3-2 was just to disillusioned to bet against Big Z here . Have the Over for 1 unit BUT 2 seperate 1 unit parlays with Cubs ML involved .

Joined you on Boston but played the RL as I feel Boston has the edge even when they go to the pens....

 

[SportsNut]

Also good call with CLE . Actually felt the line was to high but fired at it anyway thinking Lee faced Richmond tmrw so Jays had to have this one . Just Monday vs Oak Halladay was only -200 vs Gallagher and would have to say Byrd and CLE is currently better and should be cheaper but they werent ...huge boo boo.....

 

[SportsNut]

Crazy thing about STL and how huge Ankiel is ....Glaus vs Cubbies in 2008:

0-29 with 12ks !

Cardinals third baseman Troy Glaus went 0-for-5 Friday, and is hitless in 29 at-bats while striking out 12 times against the Cubs this season..

Knew this was ending today sort of the reverse jinx . Two Hrs though ...bust out

 

[tee*dub]

Knew this was ending today sort of the reverse jinx . Two Hrs though ...bust out

Glaus is having huge year.. Broke out today vs cubs and ended season long jinx against the baby bears.. Congrats to Mags for playing it . I didn't have the :balls:

Cards bullpen sets up nicely tommorow.. Should get decent number on Carp with Dempster toeing at home... Definately a card lean right now.. Momentum, good pitcher, rested bullpen..:smiley_acbe:

 

[tee*dub]

:hammer:6-1 on the week with easy BOSOX win..

 

[tee*dub]

Played Boston and STL, GL bro.

:bow::23_32_9:

 

[Mags]

Glaus is having huge year.. Broke out today vs cubs and ended season long jinx against the baby bears.. Congrats to Mags for playing it . I didn't have the :balls:

Cards bullpen sets up nicely tommorow.. Should get decent number on Carp with Dempster toeing at home... Definately a card lean right now.. Momentum, good pitcher, rested bullpen..:smiley_acbe:

Great job bro, keep posting them, we appreciate it! :smiley_acbe:

 

[Mags]

:bow::23_32_9:

Thanks bro, just trying to keep up with ya! :cheers:

 

[Satyr]

great hit TW