Saturday MLB Discussions

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Column_Date_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=7>MLB Baseball - Sat 5/10

</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD>Run Line</TD><TD>Money Line</TD><TD>Total Runs</TD><TD>More</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Sat 5/10</TD><TD>901</TD><TD>Arizona D-Backs
M. Scherzer</TD><TD></TD><TD>+122</TD><TD></TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>12:40 AM</TD><TD>902</TD><TD>Chicago Cubs
R. Dempster</TD><TD></TD><TD>-130</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Sat 5/10</TD><TD>903</TD><TD>G1 Cincinnati Reds
M. Belisle</TD><TD>+1.5 -101</TD><TD>+227</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 +102</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>10:00 AM</TD><TD>904</TD><TD>G1 New York Mets
Jo. Santana</TD><TD>-1.5 -109</TD><TD>-245</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -112</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Sat 5/10</TD><TD>905</TD><TD>St Louis Cardinals
J. Pineiro</TD><TD>+1.5 -140</TD><TD>+163</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 +102</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>12:45 PM</TD><TD>906</TD><TD>Milwaukee Brewers
B. Sheets</TD><TD>-1.5 +130</TD><TD>-171</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -112</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Sat 5/10</TD><TD>907</TD><TD>Philadelphia Phillies
J. Moyer</TD><TD>+1.5 -188</TD><TD>+114</TD><TD>OVER 7.5 -123</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>01:05 PM</TD><TD>908</TD><TD>San Francisco Giants
T. Lincecum</TD><TD>-1.5 +178</TD><TD>-122</TD><TD>UNDER 7.5 +113</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Sat 5/10</TD><TD>909</TD><TD>Atlanta Braves
C. James</TD><TD>-1.5 +150</TD><TD>-103</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 -107</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>910</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Pirates
T. Gorzelanny</TD><TD>+1.5 -160</TD><TD>-105</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -103</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Sat 5/10</TD><TD>911</TD><TD>Florida Marlins
A. Miller</TD><TD>+1.5 -197</TD><TD>-105</TD><TD>OVER 10 +110</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>912</TD><TD>Washington Nationals
M. O' Connor</TD><TD>-1.5 +182</TD><TD>-103</TD><TD>UNDER 10 -120</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Sat 5/10</TD><TD>913</TD><TD>Colorado Rockies
U. Jimenez</TD><TD>+1.5 -191</TD><TD>+112</TD><TD>OVER 8 -105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>07:05 PM</TD><TD>914</TD><TD>San Diego Padres
G. Maddux</TD><TD>-1.5 +178</TD><TD>-120</TD><TD>UNDER 8 -105</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Sat 5/10</TD><TD>915</TD><TD>Houston Astros
C. Sampson</TD><TD>+1.5 -126</TD><TD>+166</TD><TD>OVER 9 +111</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>07:10 PM</TD><TD>916</TD><TD>Los Angeles Dodgers
C. Billingsley</TD><TD>-1.5 +116</TD><TD>-174</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -121</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Sat 5/10</TD><TD>917</TD><TD>New York Yankees
D. Rasner</TD><TD>+1.5 -159</TD><TD>+127</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 -105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>12:40 PM</TD><TD>918</TD><TD>Detroit Tigers
J. Bonderman</TD><TD>-1.5 +149</TD><TD>-135</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -105</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Sat 5/10</TD><TD>919</TD><TD>Toronto Blue Jays
D. McGowan</TD><TD>+1.5 -174</TD><TD>+118</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 +115</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>920</TD><TD>Cleveland Indians
A. Laffey</TD><TD>-1.5 +164</TD><TD>-126</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -125</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Sat 5/10</TD><TD>921</TD><TD>LAA Angels
J. Saunders</TD><TD>+1.5 -174</TD><TD>+122</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -107</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>922</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Rays
S. Kazmir</TD><TD>-1.5 +164</TD><TD>-130</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -103</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Sat 5/10</TD><TD>923</TD><TD>Boston Red Sox
D. Matsuzaka</TD><TD>-1.5 -110</TD><TD>-169</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -122</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>924</TD><TD>Minnesota Twins
G. Perkins</TD><TD>+1.5 +100</TD><TD>+161</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 +112</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Sat 5/10</TD><TD>925</TD><TD>Baltimore Orioles
G. Olson</TD><TD>+1.5 -201</TD><TD>-102</TD><TD>OVER 9 +117</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>926</TD><TD>Kansas City Royals
B. Tomko</TD><TD>-1.5 +183</TD><TD>-106</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -127</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Sat 5/10</TD><TD>927</TD><TD>Oakland Athletics
D. Eveland</TD><TD>+1.5 -184</TD><TD>+103</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 -117</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>05:05 PM</TD><TD>928</TD><TD>Texas Rangers
K. Millwood</TD><TD>-1.5 +174</TD><TD>-111</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 +107</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Sat 5/10</TD><TD>929</TD><TD>Chicago White Sox
J. Vazquez</TD><TD>-1.5 +134</TD><TD>-122</TD><TD>OVER 8 -103</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>07:10 PM</TD><TD>930</TD><TD>Seattle Mariners
J. Washburn</TD><TD>+1.5 -144</TD><TD>+114</TD><TD>UNDER 8 -107</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Sat 5/10</TD><TD>931</TD><TD>G2 Cincinnati Reds
B. Arroyo</TD><TD>+1.5 -161</TD><TD>+123</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 +110</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>05:00 PM</TD><TD>932</TD><TD>G2 New York Mets
M. Pelfrey</TD><TD>-1.5 +151</TD><TD>-131</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -120</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


GL all:cheers:
 
Sheets laying faaaaar to hefty of a price IMO after looking very below average his first couple starts back from the DL.
 
not sure on the ump myself tuck.

last year in a start at the mets , belisle went 7 innings 9 hits 1 run.
 
With the understanding that this is just preliminary thought, I am thinking about a bet on Belisle first half and possibly game. The Reds are 8-7 in the day to Mets 6-8. The extra day helps Belisle. I need to do batter pitcher but Santana has had some problems with the Reds. Belisle on the road is 10-10 and I noticed that when he matched up vs Haren and Glavine he actually pitched well. A lot of the games he won he pitched like a goof which would not work with Santana but if there is a reasonable chance of him stepping up here I am definitely tempted. Would like to see the ump though. Not a good play if the ump is a homer.
 
i think the reds bat in the 240 area off of santana and the mets bat around 280 or so off of belisle (memory so need to go look again to be sure ). A lot of the mets success has been delgado.

one thing i am thinking here as far as value is that the reds are coming off a game where they were stroking the long ball and that is the one thing that santana has been vulnerable to so far.
 
i expect santana to win , ,,,, hell i hate the reds against almost any lefty let alone johan ... but the price is a bit out of hand.
 
Going back to Friday I talked about how Arizona 's perception as a team who hit sLHP well was a real exaggeration. Well if you think there a real good team here's something to put there season in perspective. After losing in Chicago they are now 5-5 vs teams with winning records. So much for that 23-13 record. Dont get me wrong they have a real good young pitching staff and a lineup with power but I think the 12-13 Ks they had today also speaks volume.

Scherzer is exactly the type of RHP that could give Chi trouble and lets face they didnt hit well today they just got a great effort from Ted Lilly. Problem with the kid is I think he had the jitters in his 1st ML start and wonder if he does pitching in an opposing stadium for the 1st time as well. Would guess he does.

Dempster wasnt that bad in Cincy and kinda took a tough defeat.

Zona is hitting only .203 so far on the road vs RHP. They are 4-4 have faced some quality RHSP so far Arroyo , Harang , Cueto , Correria , Lowe , Billingsley , Germano and Peavy. Cubs are 10-6 at slightly above 300 vs RH but I would expect something more in line with Harens outing then some of the previous beatdowns CHI has been involved vs RHP which were largely due to the Wrigley wind and also injured SP like Sheets and Oswalt...

So lean Chicago here because I dont think beting world realizes how much better of a team CHI is then Zona when travel is factored in. As well as how much CHI wants to erase last years playoff losses. We already saw ARI struggling this week when they played NYM and Philly so really this is no suprise...Dempster's 1st 2 starts were magnificent and he come back down Earth past few but the numbers are still pretty good he one flaw is walks. Dempster has been great when facing RHB but has been terrible when it comes to LHB. So far his success is due to the fact he has been better then ever vs LHB. 9-65 .134 BAA and .80 WHIP. Including thios year LHB career are 283 vs him which is 35 pts worse then RHB. Pay absolutely NO ATTENTION Dempsters career splits vs Zona. He has barely pitched vs them the past 5 or so years would doubt the current line up even has 20abs vs him. Actually 4-16 including an 0-5 from hudson who may not play. Burke and Snyder are 1-3 each and both Drew and Jackson 1-1.

Not sure if I play Chi though because I have the series play pending and I would like to ride Zambrano on Sunday as I think even if they win Sat a sweep is highly likely.....could be interested in an UNDER but uncertain as I expect an 8.5 maybe 9 if no extreme conditions arise......

At SHea the weather appears to be much better then today. Santana has really been worked past few starts and his pitch counts have been high. Think 230 pitches in 11.2 innings last 2 starts and he has struggled some @ Shea. So a big performance is important from him I think. Phillips is questionable and would be a big bat to replace as reds have concerns against LHP. Reds are 2-4 vs LHP on the road defeating Lilly just as he started to turn the corner but Joey Votto had a day with 5 rbis & later Barry Zito. They also torched Tom Glavine recently who is amongst the worst day SP in baseball past few seasons. So outside of Votto's monster day they pounded a couple guys throwing MAYBE 85 MPH. They lost 1-0 to Maholm , 9-1 to Gorzelanny , 3-1 @ SFG with Sanchez , lost 9-1 to Jojo reyes and 14-7 to Glavine defeating Lilly 9-2 and Zito 10-1.

vs LHP:
Phillips is .452 4hrs 8rbi
Votto 11-27 .407 3Hrs 10 Rbi
Keppinger .367 1Hr 6 RBI
Freel .344
Encarnacion .300 9-30

What kills them is Jr and Dunn 9-58 with 18ks 1hr 3 rbi...wouldnt be suprised to see even both sit with a day night DH.....they have potential as Hairston and Hopper can feel in as well...Remember though those numbers are accrued vs Zito , Glavine and Lilly when he was slumping the rest of the games ...

SO they have potential do score some runs....

Belisle has ben decent @ SFG and @ ATL. The Reds are just 2-10 this season in Game #1 of series. The Mets luck out with the ran as they get an extra day to adjust from there West Coast trip.

Kinda of a weird stat but Reds just 19-38 on Saturday since the start of 2006 thats 33% while Mets in that span are 39-22..so I have to lean NYM here but clearly what I am looking at is if the -1.5 RL has value as I wont lay 260 here.......or ever really.....thinking over but 8.5 is high ...I know Belisle looked good in his rehab stint in AAA so after a rough debut he has improved but also the opposition has scored 9 runs in each of his starts.

This is a matchup that NYM probably wins at least 80% of the time but the situation might put it into the 90-95% range of cousre justspeaking off the cuff....

Stl-Milw is tough as Sheets has been a hard luck loser vs STL past few years and Cards have now lost 3 straight which makes this a pretty big spot for them IMO. Sheets is improving but still would guess he is at less then 100%...Piniero unpredictable but has been excellent when he is on.....think just about every game bewteen thse two has been 1 run...so +1.5 even presents value...

Yanks now 0-4 vs DET and face Bonderman again who just doesnt pitch well at home...really like the Yanks here. You can see the improvement in Giambi and Cano and they get to face a RHP. The Tigers pen is really struggling as Jones almost blew a 6-1 game today....Yanks hit early and often I think in this one. Rasner in the under the radar type guy who is great when there areno expectations because he throws strikes and knows how to pitch despite average stuff. I think he keeps NYY in the game and our pen has been outstanding.....go back to May1st when Albadejo struggled that night since then the only runs the pen has allowed was the 3 run Hr by Dellucci vs Joba and that was a Yankee Stadium HR if ya know what I mean.....so really , really like my Yankees here.........................

Gonna get some sleep havent looked at the SF game but maybe another over there though Moyer is quietly pitching excellent....lean SFG as well.....:cheers:














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vegaskyle said:
i expect santana to win , ,,,, hell i hate the reds against almost any lefty let alone johan ... but the price is a bit out of hand.
Click to expand...

Not really though....I would have guessed -240 here...its Santana at home and its almost always gonna be around 200 the less quality the team and the less quality the SP its clearly gonna rise above 200....

Its not so much the Reds vs LHP as it' s vs quality LHP...Phillips , Encarnacion and Keppinger should be able to do some damage vs LH plus role players like Freel , Hairston who was in some groove in AAA this season (normally wouldnt include him) and maybe even Hopper plus Votto seems to be fine vs LHP.

You look at the games awat vs LHP and they have lost most of them by 7+ runs. The 1st loss was vs Maholm but it was terrible out and game wasdelayed often by rain . Maholm outpitched Volzquez 1-0. Then they lost 9-1 to Gorelanny who has had his troubles at times , 9-1 to Reyes and 14-7 to Glavine plus 3-1 to Sanchez. Reds have not hit on the road and even less vs quality LHP. The last game was the perfect storm facing Leiber. They get a guy with an avg fastball who has not started all year and cause of that lacks arm strength plus he has been in decline since the end of the 2006 season. So no suprise they pound a pitcher like him.

Mets bats are waking up..and are a tough lineup for Belisle IMO...

I am all for longshot dogs but Reds have little value I couldnt think of many scenarios where they actually win this game as Santana still searching for Home win #1 . Which is big since he was such a marquee addition .....hell I played the Astros 1st 5 inn and ML small today because I thought that line was off but outside of seeing +220 where is the value in Cincy? Other then hoping...:cheers:

 
This is a matchup that NYM probably wins at least 80% of the time but the situation might put it into the 90-95% range of cousre justspeaking off the cuff....

thats just crazy talk. ill let it go cause everything else you have said for the last month is so quality.

where is the value in Cincy? Other then hoping

I guess this mainly boils down to how well you think Belisle can pitch tomorrow. I think he is capable of holding the mets 2 or 3 runs over 6-7 innings on a good day. The reds powerbats have awakened .. maybe ... and i think if there is someone on base when santana makes his mistake that the reds are right there. And santana has been making those type of mistake pitches so far this year. He also, for whatever reason has actually pitched much better on the road than in shea so far this year. look , it isnt like the reds rate to go out and pound the mets tomorrow. likely wont happen. BUT if Belisle can keep it close the reds can get to the mets bullpen ... they have had great success against feliciano and sosa in the past after all ( though they couldnt hit wagner with a tennis racket ). I know one thing for sure .... no value in a mets bet .. especially not a rl bet at home in shea laying a huge number.
 
oh and tuck , according to redbeardes ump/weather thread , its kulpa in game 1 ( though not positive )
 
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We all have opinions...I stand by the fact that Reds would rarely if ever win this matchup. You cant really believe Santana is pitching better away then home it has nothing to do with where he is pitching but who he is pitching versus. At home he had to face MILW when they where in a groove and just hitting LHP very , very well. Then he had to face a Pitt team that was just starting to make strides vs LHP and tap its potential. Still all they did was work counts and hit 2 solo Hrs. Even with the Reds possible improvement they arent as tough a lineup on LHP. I think we would agree on that .

I would say its a possibilty that Belisle could go 6 innings and allow 3 runs but better then that highly unlikely. NYM has just to many bats with Alou back in the mix. Reyes to start and if Chutch follows thats a pretty solid 1-2 punch right now , Wright hit better the last game vs LAD , Delgado , Beltran ,Alou ...just to deep for a medicore pitcher.. He pitched 177 innings last season and batters hit 301 off him....and if your worried about Hrs he allowed 26 in 177 innings...his great start @ Shea 1st game back after the AS Break I believe and he faced 4 guys no longer in a Mets uniform. Alou is better then Milledge , Church better then Green , whoever at Catcher will be tougher ab then LoDuca was , and Gotay played 2nd base enuff said...

He was lucky ATL didnt string together a few hits as he allowed 8H in 5.1 but just 2 runs after allowing 4 runs in 5 innings vs one of the weakest lineups in baseball @ SFG .

Then you go there pen who is coming in that is a lights out guy ? All there relievers are hittable . Licoln has the best WHIP at 1.13 but BAA is .273 no matter who they put in before Cordero the chance is there to score.

Why would NY use Feliciano or Sosa in a close game? Heilman is the guy who will get the call 1st IMO and his last 5 innings just 1 hit...then Wagner...so really not concerned with the other relievers...feliciano could see a batter I guess but think Heilman is the guy...

Cincy scratched Jr and Phillips do they they play the early game? Doubt Jr does..

So if the only LHP that Cincy has hit throw 85 and Santana at worst is 92-93 MPH how are they gonna do better then the 1 run they scored vs reyes , Gorzelanny , Sanchez or Maholm..4 games 3 runs..and none of those pens are real good..

So basically I would say NYM scores at least 5 tmrw and worst case 4 runs....not sure how reds are getting past that......

For all the Hrs Santana has allowed at home its pretty remarkable that he has allowed 8 hits of which 5 are Hrs in 13.1 innings...

With Santana w/o a win yet at home and playing a DH no less great emphasis is placed on winning. Trust me he wants to impress Mets fans he is still pissed they booed him vs MILW...he cant wait to say Fuck You ...and the best way for an athlete to say FUCK YOU is excel and have them "sweating you" ....and kissing your ass.....

They play this game a 100 times I would be shocked if Reds won even 5 times....Reds are 6-12 and probably 4 or 5 of those wins came vs Chi and Milw cause there lineups couldnt hit power RHP which is something Matt Belisle is not.....so Reds win 33%of there games and need an edge for the most part to win...wheres there edge? Zito , Correia , Wellenmeyer...?? and having there strong RHP pitch vs Milw and CHi...thats the only way they were able to win away games....

Just not a good spot to steal a game vs Santana IMO. The only factor is Santana being worn out from his recent starts but still he allowed just 3 runs inthose games and NYM pen at home has a ridiculous ERA......

I would be suprised if Cincy broke 3 runs and what makes guys like Santana great is they avoid allowing 3 run Hrs..

Pretty comfortable thinking reds lose by at least 2 runs here...guess by at least 3...in fact I bet Santana goes at least 7 + innings here....

GL tmrw VK just disagree with you here...value doesnt creep into the equation until you see a -300 for this game....and thats even with Santana being so-so of late...Reds bats didnt wakeup they were just playing slow pitch softball on wed ...and if Phillips does play 246 in day games this year and 228 last....for me I need to see an edge somewhere not just a fat price....

:shake:
 
Fair enough ...... Don't really disagree with much in that writeup at all ... other than the ridiculous 5 out of 100 thing. Which i suppose is where we disagree. I think you could match up the worst hitter at every position on one team coupled with a below average pitcher vs the best pitcher in the league ......and the team with the worst hitting players at every position still win the game more than 5 times in a hundred.

Whether there is value on santana at this number is, of course, another thing all together. I also would expect Heilman to pitch before the other guys in the pen and i wouldnt be at all suprised to see santana go 7-8 strong innings. All i am saying is .... this is baseball .... its hard not to take big numbers like this when you think there is a chance that the underdog pitcher can keep the score low. When the mets win 7-0 tomorrow i wont be suprised at all.

As you say ,.... agree to disagree. gl tomorrow.
 
Nice stat BC. Nut, should someone play Arizona? I have a often stated rule never to play a pitcher at Chicago who has not previously pitched in that park. Is Chicago better than Arizona? Fielding and batting are almost identical but pitching Arizona is 3.54 to 3.82. Dempster has had 4 home starts and he pitched well in one of them. Arizona off a loss has a winning percentage of .769. Cubs have won mostly vs chumps and to a lesser degree so has Arizona. Simple question. How many times this season have you bet On Arizona. My record is simple 7 on and 6 against. I think whether you realize it or not you may have some bias here.
The Mets game. Are the Mets the better team? Obviously. Santana. During his massive home win streak I believe I bet on him 21 straight. Last 8 he is 2-6 with 1 high quality game and first half bets did very well vs him even when he was winning steadily. Covers has Scott listed. He is 0-2 at home with Scott. Will have to think about it. I am going to get back to looking for practical bets.
 
Yankees off a loss 3-15 under. Miller under ump. BC has guided me to my first bet.
 
Breaking small one of my own rules. Arizona for .5 a unit ml. Really would prefer to stay away. Do not like going against pitchers that are 4-0 at home or teams with good home records. So why play? Dempster has still pitched 23 innings at home and given up 11 runs. Diamondback available pen .231 era to pen Cubs 4.00. Demuth certainly favors the road team. Since 1995 at the site Arizona 8 to Cubs 5. Max 52 k's to 5 walks at First Inning. He lost the first game to a very serious Phillie team with their favorite road pitcher Moyer and I bet against him. Thought I would try and see if I can win both ways.
 
Seeing +265 @betjam for the Reds......Might toss .5 unit on it or team it up with one or two others for half unit just for shits and giggles...........
 
Chuckie James sporting a 6.53 xERA, hasn't gone passed the 5th in any of his three starts, and has given up 3 HRS in 13 innings in a road pick'em ??

Braves also haven't had much success away VS LHP.

Gorzelanny's ERA is a bit misleading. His xERA is only 4.00. (2.85 xERA) at home. 12 hits in 13.67 innings and 0 dingers @ PNC in 3 starts. BB's have been an issue, but accorinding to articles he threw pain free in sideline sessions this week.
 
Saunders 15-4 at night and 7-1 with 5 days rest. Kaz not showing much. Tampa feasted at home vs slumping Boston and Toronto. Anaheim considerably better vs Left handed pitching. Probably you have to play.
 
If Cincy had a 5% chance of winning the odds on them would be at least +1200. The oddsmakers gave them between 30-35% chance to win, meaning that current odds of around +250 is decent value.
 
Probably a good play Dennis. General fade of a total move. Brewers game moves to 8. Sheets last 20 at home are 10 over, 5 under and 5 pushes. Cardinal pitcher is bad in the day. Cardinals 6-0 in game 2 off loss. Sheets not looking too good lately. Hoping for runs.
 
tuck, are you really playing/have you already played the NYY-DET Under? I'm worried about it on Bonderman's part because I don't like seeing the Yankees facing a RHP with all those lefties in the lineup. Especially because Bonderman can become a gas can at moments notice.

...other plays I like are the Angels and the Pirates, but sides have killed me so i'm looking for a total to play for a bit. The STL-MIL under looks nice, I would lean over in the NYM-CIN game, but i haven't found anything i'm in love with yet
 
Good stuff fellas. have to run out for a bit.

Mets skyrocketed to 280...so stayed away...

took a paraly though small 9 to 1 payout ...NYM , NYY , SFG and over 8 @ Shea.......

BOL
 
Played Baltimore su and rl. Have liked KC last 2 years but----. Forgetting the absolute team domination, Tomko 2007 to now is 3-9 at home. On 4 days rest has a era of 4.94, is better in the day. KC at night 8-14 while Baltimore is 15-9. Simple fact is right now KC can count on 1 starter and it is not Tomko. Baltimore looks bad recently playing Oakland, Angels and Tampa Bay. Think its time for them to pig out. Oh, and Olson looks good too and a spread of 7 cents.
 
Here are the lineups for the 2:40 p.m. game, which is being broadcast by FOX Sports:

Cardinals
 RF Skip Schumaker
3B Aaron Miles
1B Albert Pujols
CF Rick Ankiel
LF Chris Duncan
2B Adam Kennedy
C Yadier Molina
RHP Joel Piniero
SS Brendan Ryan

Brewers
 2B Rickie Weeks
CF Mike Cameron
LF Ryan Braun
1B Prince Fielder
RF Corey Hart
3B Bill Hall
SS J.J. Hardy
RHP Ben Sheets
C Jason Kendall
 
I really havent had a chance to digest this entire thread yet. Just really sitting down for the 1st time to read some of it and there is just alot of good points to think about and respond to. If by any means I sounded stubborn with my Reds-Mets chatter last nite I apologize but please remember its was like 3 or 4 AM here for me on the East Coast so you get tired sometimes and you get cranky which inhibits my ability to speak clearly .

@ 3:40

NYY vs Det : Hate that the price depreciated high but I did think it was abit high to begin with. Truth is most we see Yanks as dogs you will have to expect a price drop . Although yesterday we had a gift when they opened Igawa so cheap considering NYY was facing a LHSP. Hell I admit to thinking Igawa could actually pitch a decent game but it was just base hit central vs him as the comfort for DET in the batters box might have been a 100.

Very simply why I like NYY is because today I see my Yanks as having the edges. Our bullpen is clearly pitching better at the moment which is huge . Bondermans history at home is rather flawed . Rasner is a guy who I think can go 5or 6 at keep Det at 3 runs. The Tigers are just 3-11 in day games but granted I think they started at 0-9 or 0-10. Yanks big plus ithey face a RHSP who they just faced and stack there lineups with LHB with two key ones Giambi and Cano showing life....Det is 11-20 vs RHO and 5-14 whne the total is 9 to 9.5 which indicates to me they have feasted off bad pitching...

So played NYY ML {1u} and 1/2 unit on 1st 5 Yanks...granted I hate backing so called popular dog so that is my warning label...

Other then that nothing really to speak of made 3 {1/2 unit} plays....Under 8.5 +110 Cubs , Cards +160 and parlayed Cubs -120 to Under 8.5 thats it gonna look at the SFG and Philly game but I think based on the fact I included SFG in that early parlay its gonna be SFG or pass.....

GL all and keep up the contributions personally I love reading your ideas....:shake:
 
Even as a Yankee fan and backer I kinda feel for Jeremy Bonderman I missed some abs but he didnt get any help from the UMP vs Giambi especially. Okay lets go Yanks.....and of course Cano rocket turns into a DP ...

@ 4:05 :

Vizquel returns today and that is huge because SS has been a black hole ofensively with Burress being somewhat better and he actually gets the nod at 2nd base today. Omar gives them a professional hitter in the 2 hole making the top of the lineup much more effective IMO. Not to mention even if its your 1st game facing Moyer there is no adjustment period cause he is a soft tosser not some dud bringing a 95 MPH that you havent seen inawhile. Also Omar loves hitting vs Philly and Moyer especially think 370 career.

Lincecum is probably SFG best SP and he is off 2 tough luck losses including a solid effort @ Philly which he lost due to 4 uneraned runs as SF defense was terrible that series again another reason to be happy to see Omar back. Think about SF all year is I dont think they have won a game in which the opponent scored more then 2 runs sp good pitching is very important to SF success this season. This is FG 6th straight time facing a LHP with decent results from the bats 5,6,1 ,4,4 though the 6 was mostly off the pen. However Aurilia and Castillo have shown alot of life lately and mix in Ortemeir at 1st base as well in that discussion who had 2 two hit games in Pitt vs LHSP. Rowand smokes LHP and already mentioned Vizquels previous success. Trust me on this Lincecum has been near lights out when getting 6 days rest which he does today....

Yesterday Philly had there ace vs a spot starter and couldnt pull it out till the 8th inning. Today we have Lincecum who does tend to throw alot of pitches but can maintain his stuff for 110-120 pitches which could take him into the 7th and 8th innings leaving less work for the pen......

Moyer is simply the perfect pitcher IMO for SFG to breakout against . I give him all the credit in the world for his pitching so far but this time he sort of expectations...

So played SFG -120 {1.25 u} -1.5 +170 {. 6u} over 8 +100 {.75U} also remember have Yanks and SFG ML pending to complete my earlier 4 teamer....GL:cheers:
 
Liking Washington later. Not a big fan of the left and right handed picks but Washington 7-3 last 10 to Florida 2-3 away this season and 4-7 last 11. Seems to matter. Chico filled up 2 innings last night and while I think Miller is improving just see this as a bad spot facing a good home team off a loss by a favorite pitcher. Also Olsen comes up next the guy the team really gives support to.
 
Here's my attempt at responding ...

Vegas Kyle : I know what you mean when your talking value its just as I said before my take on value and price is sort of non comformist . I understand why some guy on an internet forum saying the Reds have somewhere in the realm of a 5% chance of winning can sound absurd but trust one thing about me when I make what sounds like a silly statement most( almost always ) of the times its very well thought out and probably even a calculated response to get one thinking.

Why do I make such a claim ? Look at the respective situation and thats my big thing in capping. Do I mean in a perfect world the Reds could only win this game 5 % of the time ? No . I mean the game be playing under todays context of situations they could in my estimation only win 5% of the times. Naturally I care about price but I will stand by the fact big prices dont create value they just cause people to waste money. Situations create value and I will also stand by that.

So look at the game today by what I feel is taking a step back. First look at the SP .
Matt Belisle started the season on the DL and since its early May its not absurd to think he is still trying to find his groove and rythym. Do I think at times he is capable of pitching a solid game . Yes I do . However making just his 4th start of the year in which his 1st outing he went 4 Inn allowed 12 hits 7r 5 er tells me clearly he has alot of work to do to find himself. His next start looks like improvement when he goes to SFG and allows 5 hits and 4 runs in 5 innings but look at that in its proper context. He is facing a so-so SP in Correria which is always different then facing a top of the rotation guy cause right away you dont have to step on the mound thinking you must be excellent that day to win , more importantly he also faced a SFG lineup without Bengie Molina who is one of there toughest outs vs RHP this year and then just the general weakness of the SFG lineup made even weaker by Molina's absence but also Bowker's slump. So how "good" does it look to allow 4 runs in 5 innings to weak lineup missing a key hitter ? Its just not very impressive at all. Then he goes to ATL who clearly is a tough lineup and tough place to win. There lineup is very solid really cant say who is better offensively them or NYM. So what I see is a game where he went 5.1 innings but allowed 8 hits and just 2 runs . Also 4 of those 8 hits were doubles vs him. So you have to look at that start and say he was fortunate to allow 8 hits in 5.1 innings but just 2 runs which is basically like saying the opponent was 8 for 24 against him (.333BAA) but somehow scored only twice. So has he shown minor progress YES but he also showed how a deep lineup can get 8 hits off him in a short span. Then two other factors stick out about this game he opposed a LHSP @ ATL which Reds mounted just 1 run and the bullpen which is basically guarnateed of pitching here and for at least 3 innings at the moment in his starts turned a 2-1 game into a 9-1 game. Not good . I look at the possible guys who could be called on as I said the best WHIP is Lincoln but he 270 something BAA besides what I know about him tells me he is very hittable and on paper he might be there best reliever at the moment not including Cordero.

So looking simply at Belisle very hard to believe on what he done so far he could do better then 6 innings and 3 runs vs a deep lineup on the road which is what I said last evening. Truly in mind that is like the absolute best he can do . Especially seeing how well NYM had hit on WED with MOB and even with 2 outs. Also like I said you have factor in the depth of NYM lineup as the weakest links are the catcher hitting 8th whether its Scheinder or Casanova both are not exactly easy outs. Granted I'll take a real good pitcher to get them out but hitting medicore pitchers is what gets these guys to the majors in the 1st place. The other weak link is Castillo and I was unsure he was hitting 2nd today. Castillo is the probably the last punch and judy hitter left in the majors but since coming to the NL he does a great job at working pitchers and even drawing walks. As a Met he has 40 walks and only 26ks in 76 games including just 16 bbbs to 8ks in 26 games this year. So he is a pest. Then from 3 to 7 even with some guys slumping you have Wright , Beltran , Church , Alou and Delgado there is no break . Mistakes will get hit and each atbat is like a mini battle which ultimately wears down the opposing SP.

Now look at Santana. I will be the first to say he is nowhere near dominanting the NL. He is doing his best at keeping opponents off the scoreboard for the most part despite laboring especially the past 2 starts. The positive is though he wasnt very good and basically went 6 innings allowing 2 runs vs lineups Pitt and ARI who are clearly tough for a LHP then Cincy is. So even at less then stellar he has kept opponents from scoring. When we looked at Cincy what stood out for them. They struggled to hit on the road especially when facing quality SP but also quality LHSP as evidenced by the fact they scored 1,1,1,0 in games started by JoJoReyes , Paul Maholm , Jonathan Sanchez and Tom Gorzelanny. That group still isnt as tough as Santana at 80-85% peak. So that tells me even if he labors he should keep the Reds bats in check .

Now look at the teams play Reds were just 6-12 on the road meaning they win so far once every 3 games or 33 % of the time. So right away technically speaking there chance of winning is at best 33% and can only drop here when the factors are lining up in NYs favor. The mets are 9-5 at home which is about 65% which again only strengthens the fact Reds have a 33% chance of winning and really less if you ask the likelhood of a poor road team beating a solid home team. Then I see how the Reds havent hit and lost vs all those LHP and are just 2-5 vs LHSP away this year...Really based soley on the fact they scored 3 runs in 4 games vs quality LHP and lost all 4 while producing a 6-12 road record playing Johan Santana probably alone makes me guessestimate they can win this game maybe only 20% of the time under the current situation .

So basically even with Santana's struggles I dont think Cincy can score more then twice of him in 6 innings maybe 3 times in 7 innings but that would be there best , best case scenario since they have scored just 3 runs in 4 games vs solid LHSP this season in similiar situations...the onlt time they hit a LHSP away was when they faced Barry Zito who has been terrible for the most part , when they faced a struggling Ted Lilly who even then didnt pitch that poorly except he couldnt solve Joey Votto ( again I;ll take my chances Santana doesnt make mistakes vs a youngster who is LH like Votto), and they scored off Tom Glavine who is terrible in day starts and was pitching with like an 8 run lead.

Reds offense weak vs quality LHSP gets thee best LHSP even if he is not his best self. Very tough to expect runs for them. Then Heilman has been solid recently and with 2 complete of days plus Maines outing on Wed has 3 full days. So I can expect he is the 1st guy Randolph calls on and he might go 2 innings if need be. So really not concerned with other Mets relievers here. As I said his last 5 innings just 1 hit and no runs which bridges the gap to Wagner who is a power LHP who we can expect Cincy to struggle against for the reasons they will struggle vs Johan. So there track record says they score 1 runs in these type games so far and I can give them the beneift of the doubt they score 2 maybe even 3 runs getting to 4 runs would be like hitting the lotto for them as an offense. I say that because one thing I know and you will agree with as well is unless we see a sign of improvement then we shouldnt just expect it. Which is where my HOPE comment comes from. If they havent shown they can do it previously why HOPE they can do it versus the best LHSP on paper in the NL ?

So why do I say they are lucky if looking at this game if they can win 5 % of the time. SImply using what they have done and applying it here. reds have not played or hit well on the road even worse vs LHSP. They have won some games on the road but in those games they had there better RHSP facing opposing lineups who didnt hit RHP well so they had a clear factor or edge that we could use to as why the might be able to win those games. Here is there really is nothing we could see happening that would give CIncy edge. It really wasnt likely that Belisle could stymie the mets here and keep them in check and have his team win a 2-1 or 3-2 type game. There was just no basis to believe that. We could guess that NYM might actually rock Belisle and get 5 or 6 runs here and even tack some on vs the Reds pen. Why? Cause we see it happening already.....and then I take the Tuck "rule" and see that the SAT records for each teams was complete opposites telling me if anyone is gonna to get breaks today its gonna be NYM...

Its also why I said there is no value in taking Cincy unless the line gets to -300 which it almost did ...for me at least closed at -280. I understand the implied probablity implied by a ML in baseball which is why I feel there was no way the game can be cheaper then -240. There just is no rationalize reason why Cincy can win here other then the 1 in million arguement.

Clearly anyone can win a baseball game but there has to be some factor that they can put to as an edge which I didnt see. I played baseball all my life there is no sport I rather I watch and its probably the only sport I really do watch closely. If this was the 1st or 2nd game of the year its different as Santana wouldnt be 8 games deep into his season and we could guess that even if he was off that would be able to limit opposing scoring. If it was a different scenario then my logic changes ....Like I said last night when I went to sleep O stand by the fact Reds win this game less then 5% of the time...

Now looking back at how it happened today how applicable was my thought process.

Well Santana was not sharp but like I guessed yesterday he want badly to win his 1st game @ Shea. He came outthrowing very hard today 94-95 MPH consistently . What he didnt have was a good changeup and worse his slider was terrible. I watched bits and pieces so I can only comment on what i saw. 1st inning alone both hits he allowed hanging sliders to Jr and Phillips (Patterson bunted for a hit) . After that same deal I think the best swing I saw through 5 inning vs Santana was by the picther Matt Belisle when he fouled a fastball back. Otherwise they just watched the heater hitthe mitt or fouled off it weakly. I cant really say much about the 6thhis last inning as I didnt watch it but it also occurred when the game was 6-1 . The HR Encarnacion hit was a fly ball that left the park on a nice day barely getting ovr the 358 mark and I think it was again a slider but not certain.

So Santana did what we expected he allowed some hits and kept the threats from scoring until he had a 4-0 lead. I wathced Belislepitch more the Johan and I dont think he pitched badly at all but the Mets deep lineup hurt him as he never had that easiet out to rely on to get out of a jame. He allowed just7 hits in 5 innings but unlike last week @ ATL they were all singles and some where blleders that found a hole or landed over the IF head like when down 2-0 with the IF in someone dropped a ball on the OF grass by 20 feet ay best....so in some ways Mets got all the breaks. I thought the ump was abit tight behind the plate but Belisle didnt show enough consistency either .In general the scoreboard and the game were unkind to him. However when the REds pen came in it was like pouring on gasoline on a fire . The game cut to 6-3 was soon 10-3 and later 12-4....

If I had to guess the line move up was not what people would like to call public money . Public money was probably taking a stab atthe REDS ML thinking its to high of a price while some people with my thought process and a whole lot more money were able to take this game from 220 and 240 up to 260 and 280...cause as I said really there was no value on Cincy till 300...Unfortunately a guy like me cant do much with those lines and a crappy bookie...lukcy for me I was able to get the Reds and over as part a 4 team parlay that I think has a legit shot and took a small stab on Reds -1.5 and over parlayed which I didnt mention earlier...parlays I even get screwed on with my bookie...so a game like this that I like alot I cant do shit with except lay -1.5 ...Sorry for the long , long response but I felt I came off a little arrogant last night and just wanted to clarify there was alot of thought put into my statement not just some punk comment..also I think its a great way to step back and look at asituation for what it is or at least how I try to do it...BOL today...

Askias- I would say we dont fully understand how tough this TB team is at home right now and due to the fact they stunk for so long its hard to rationalize value in them as home chalk vs good teams. Saunders was not very good last outing. Anytime a SP pitches above expectations for so long the 1st time he doesnt I wonder if he will regress at least for the next few outings. Kazmir has always been tough at home. I would like to look more at both teams vs LHSP as I already know backing TB vs LH is not something I normally do but they have 3 solid RHBs. Plus go over Kaz wok so far and see what type of bullpen availability is here...TB home unders have been golden I think...GL...

Tuck- I have to check that. I just dont think Zona's lineup is as good as it gets credit for . Right now they are in a period where they are facing tougher competition and I think that brings that back to Earth a bit. I am not a wholesale stat guy so what stats both have really doesnt apply strongly for me. What stands out with Zona is they have feasted on the likes of the West Colorado , SFG and SD all teams with offenses who are struggling coupled with what I agree is a very good Zona pitching staff makes it unlikely they should lose many of those games. Poor offenses facing good SP are at an extreme disadvantage which is how I fel ARI built there record.

I think I have faded ARI alot the past week or so though and also might be getting ahead of myselfin fading Webb when he is pitching in must win spots for them. I did fade Zona every game every vs NY but I know I did play them with Owings and had them in a parly when Shcrezer made his 1st start but I mistakenly faded them vs Myers but did so successfully yesterday.

Definitely something I appreciate you bringing up but as I look at the past week the only poor fades where the Webb games otherwise I think have won the 3 plays outside of his starts when I did...have to really try and lokk back at that....I guess what I would say is I just thought maybe they perception got ahead of there talent...I didnt really expect much today just a half unit parlay with Cubbies to under ...which again this was ARI best chance of winning a game this series so probably not a wise decision on my part...Thanks and GL

Also Tuck real great stuff on the rest of the games have to look at KC-Balt as ell but yeah Tomko is not really a guy you wantto back no matter how well he pitches he sub 500 for a reason .....

BetCrimes- My only response would have been and b7th so I hope you guys hit this is the fact NYY hits significantly better against RHP and faced one they saw already recently who had a poor track record at home facing a guy in rasner who I liek but is very hittable..and of course DET pourous pen...GL...

Bored- Like Pitt and will probbaly play it. James is being toiled wih . His work @ AAA has been great but being yo-yo ed and having no specific role is hurting him IMO....and Pitt just doing to well vs LHP of late....BOL

JOFL- I knew what the implied odds were I was simply guessestimating when I said 5% as I could enver provem y opinion anyway. As I stated didnt think Reds had any value unless you saw -300 or better...GLtoday
 
tuck321 said:
Liking Washington later. Not a big fan of the left and right handed picks but Washington 7-3 last 10 to Florida 2-3 away this season and 4-7 last 11. Seems to matter. Chico filled up 2 innings last night and while I think Miller is improving just see this as a bad spot facing a good home team off a loss by a favorite pitcher. Also Olsen comes up next the guy the team really gives support to.
Click to expand...

Great stuff and yes I think its important to weigh who is pitching the next day especially when a home team is down1-
 
Wondering what the right play is in Oakland Texas. Millwood after giving up17 in his last 3 starts is not a legal play but not a fan of the Oakland starter or the meek way Oakland went down last night. Call it a puzzle.
 
Millwood is definitely in a funk and I was going to fade him when I could have had Texas as a small dog but little uncertain now. Though big difference bewteen here and yesterday is while I like Greg Smith much more as SP the Rangers had just seen him in Oak while Feldman had really pitched well and took the tough Luck loss in that game. So yesterday he the benefit of pitching home where you could guess he might be able to duplicate his pitching eprformance vs Oakland while Smith who was trailing late in OAK despite pitching well probably would get hit at tad harder on the road...the bonus here for Oakland is they didnt see Eveland so this is there 1st look at him not the 2nd and with Millwood recent pitching last 4 or 5 starts I would say Feldman is a stronger option vs Oak to succeed then he is currently...so in that respect if OAK could be favored yesterday which I didnt really agree with and backed Texas then they should have opened them as a favorite here . Rangers I think now are just 2-6 vs LHSP...

So nothing concrete but still feeling OAKLAND is the better play despite the fact I probably lost 20 cents of value...

Also looking at Pitt , Washington and TB some interest in Cle , Baltimore and Minny still researching.....:shake:
 
Wow...6 spot in the B7th for Cubs...cost me a unit I guess but if it means Cubbies win I'll take my series play .....
 
Did play Pitt. Same situation in a way. Second staff ace for ATL goes tomorrow and an extended winning streak just got snapped.
 
Kinda rushing with these 7 Pm starts had to step out for abit and just walked back in...

So making my usual mistake of rushing to put plays...gonna stick to 1 unit each...so far Pitt and Wash are in...thinking about the others I mentioned already..:cheers:
 
Followed Tucks lead on Balt and added TB myself...

Nothing crazy took all for 1 unit really not overly excited about any of them...

GL
 
On Oak as well. Think about 2 units..hate the price flip but I think I explained a few posts back why I dont think its really a bad line move...

Millwood is not pitching well lately going back to his start at home vs LAA. Think 26.1 inn and 43 or 44 hits 23 runs best outiong a lucky 6 inn 10 h 2 run start. Bad history in NIGHT STARTS real high ERA and BAA. Doesnt have much success vs the lienup and some guys like Big Hurt , Ellis and Brown have pretty good career numbers vs him and with Barton and Cust hitting better of late and decent splits in a few looks at hime they should continue to hit him.

Rangers lineup has improved vs LHP with Boggs coming aboard and probably sitting Broussard and Catalanotto as well. Still they are just 3-6 winning there last two -20 and 4-0 vs BEdard and Smith yesterday which tells me they need good pitching most of all vs LH because runs tend to be scarce and I dont expect that...gonn aplay the over I think as well...
 
Also looks like I need to readjust my perception of FLA as to there credit they are playing well of late...smoked O'Connor...really need that Orioles game to get going as there are some RUNS being put up and I have the Salami over 143.5......

and before I can hit SUBMIT Uggla Grand Slam...officially a LOSS now....Nats down 10-0 wow ! At least Tribe up 9-0...:cheers:
 
Some ugly late games on the board tonight. I can't see anything of interest to me at all.
 
Ump in the Seattle/WS game

O/U 8-2 last 10 Mariner games BHP
O/U 6-1-1 last 8 CWS games BHP
O/U 4-0 last 4 Vazquez games BHP
O/U 6-2 last 8 games overall BHP, that didnt involve a team getting shutout
 
Yeah Timmy I have been looking at the games and they are so uninteresting they are hard to research.

The only game of interest so far is the one BC posted trends on. I want to take an over but I am starting to think this could be a fairly onesided game with Vazque throwing so well outside of the Yankee game . Which they give him trouble because they tend to be patient and run his pitch count up . Washburn has struggled vs Dye and Konerko badly in his career. Dye is heating up of late , Konerko has been fairly consistent from what I recall and Thome Hred for something like the 1st time in 14 games. Like I said early on this season the WSox are built to hit LHP so they really should have a nice game vs Washburn who is struggling badly against RHB in 2008. I just hate taking an over when the M's have been so pathetic on offense.....

So like WSox and over just not sure I want to play it with some stuff pending. Also I have noticed I have been terrible no wait awful on the West Coast games all week...really bad...:cheers:
 
SN - I agree the only thing that even remotely interested me was this game and I kind of like the over a little bit. Davis was certainly a nice over ump last year. GL if you play.
 
Aslo Thome and AJ resting with Anderson and Hall in there place. Toby Hall has been an UNDER machine. Think 8 starts and 8 Unders though his 1st and last game he caught had 8 runs.

Betancourt and Sexson resting with Bloomquist sub 200 and Cairo playing in there places .....next to impossible for me to take the over now...but still WSox I think..

Cabrera 7-25 (.340 career vs SEA in 256abs)
Quentin vs LHP 3-18 2Hrs 6rbi 4bbs 1K
Dye 20-47 3Hrs 9 Rbi
Konerko 15-45 4Hrs 11 Rbi
Swisher 2-19 (1hr every 17abs career vs Sea)
Crede 4-21 & .197 career vs Sea
Anderson 0-2 career vs LHP .208 only
Uribe 6-18
Hall 3-16

Beltre 13-31
Cairo 1-6
Ibanez 4-11 2Hrs
Johijima 3-7 1hr
Lopez 2-12
Ichiro 5-18 5 Ks

Bloomquist .324 career vs WSox , Balentin and Clement never faced.....

Both SP are best on 5 days rest which they have , Washburn has pitched better at home this year and he has been much better at Night for awhile now.....

Cant take an over ......nothing supports it......well not nothing UMPS and trends but nothing I see....
 
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