Saturday Midnight EST Degenerate Special: Pack at Warriors


Big Kahuna
Notes (that have nothing to with the game):

- I think that when the regular season ends, and Boise State has run the table, people are going to look back and see that Hawaii was the only team that competed with Boise (stop bringing up Wyoming, they played in a blizzard, Wyoming was lucky to backdoor cover).

In the first 5 minutes of the Boise game, Hawaii dropped a 40 yard open pass, and fumbled a 50+yard pass play, putting Hawaii down 15-0 in a heartbeat. For the next 55 minutes, Hawaii outscored, out gained, and out first downed Boise to a tune of 500 yards offense and 5 TD’s.

Hawaii’s punter/place holder (same guy who fumbled a perfect snap giving up a Safety and FG to Alabama) single handedly stopped Hawaii from tying the game with the following: muff snap on 25 yard fg try, muff snap on extra point, another muff snap on extra point - - pretend to be Brett Favre, fumble and give up 2 point run back… of 7 points……geezus…..he has since been demoted, please god revoke his scholarship……

Boise QB Zabransky in post game conference, “Hawaii is vastly improved over past years, before they would have folded….they are probably going to win the rest of their games…..”

- An interesting note, 31 of 32 NFL teams sent scouts to the Boise vs. Hawaii game. Amazingly, they came to see 8 Hawaii players and just 4 Boise Players (I guess NFL potential has nothing to do with win). The Hawaii players: DE Alama-Francis, DE Purcell, SS Peters, RB Ilaoa, RB Mauia, C Satele, QB Brennan, and another offensive lineman. Seen a lot of posters debate the NFL caliber of our receivers, sorry guys, they are great college players but too small and slow for the NFL….Word is, QB Colt Brennan’s stock went through the roof with his 5 TD performance……and our second string RB, 300 pound Mauia stock rocketed with his potential as fullback in the NFL. You can just hear the worry on Hawaii Talk Shows that QB Brennan could leave early for the NFL…..

My Pick and Reasons Why:

- I have seen Nevada play countless times and seen their QB Rowe play since he was a Freshmen….

- Hawaii is on an Against the Spread tear I noted could happen in week 1……

- Nevada is 1-2 on the road, and this is Nevada’s back to back road game….

- These two alternate wins at the home field (this year in theory, should be Hawaii’s win)…..

- Watching Nevada against Northwestern and Fresno St, I came away unimpressed…..their defense is marginal at best, and their offense may be only slightly better than last year…Even against UNLV, the game was a lot closer than it looks, whereas Hawaii annihilated UNLV (42-0 in third, subs rest of the way)……Nevada had two big plays for 150 yards total, the other 50 plays, 3 yards average……and 14 points came off a very short field…..

- Hawaii is coming off a vacation / tune up game against Eastern Illinois, where Hawaii rested their injured players, included star receiver Grice-Mullins, Hawaii is healthy for this game……

- Nevada’s secondary is poor from what I have seen, and they were exposed against ASU. 350 and 5 TD’s given up to ASU? I will bet Colt Brennan breaks both those marks here…….

- I love Nevada’s Pistol Offense (this is more run oriented than pass, contrary to popular belief) and Hawaii’s run defense the last two games has me suspect…..but the more I looked at it: is giving up 200 yards to Boise at Boise that bad? And what about adjusting and holding Boise down after the first 50 came in the first 5 minutes? Is giving up 230 to Eastern Illinois that bad considering all they do is run anyway? And 75 yards came on one 3rd and 1 busted defense? And our leading tackler MLB Elmimiam was out?

No, Hawaii’s run defense wasn’t that bad the more I looked at the stats….I will stand by my earlier post……this is Hawaii’s best Front 7 on defense I have seen in ages…..they will slow Nevada down big…..

I would have a bigger play on this but I don’t like the big line move, I rarely if ever bet with the line movement (everyone is piling on Hawaii)…….also, I love Jeff Rowe, he is savvy senior QB and may just pull out enough plays to cover…..but when it comes down to it, Hawaii’s Offense is rolling, and the defense is getting better fast……Hawaii’s players are pumped up big time for this game……

Play this one light guys…..since I know you degenerates cannot resist betting on a late Saturday night……

But…….Revenge is a Bitch…….

Hawaii - 9 ½ 440 to win 400

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Great explanation, Hawaiiguy, and it's always great to read something that doesn't just talk about line movement and where the line was at last year for this game.

I have 2 UNITS on Hawaii -6.5 . . . . . Good luck to us!
I so want to join you on this one Hawaiiguy, but will be sitting it out...GL bud...
Other than the spaz attacks on XP's, I was impressed with the effort vs Boise. The 550 lb. backfield is tough..............

I'll throw down a bit on Hawaii....
Great read and insight as always. Always appreciate your thoughts HG. BOL!
Hawaii Guy,

Always coatail your picks concerning your Bows!!!!!! I agree with you a 100%. You've won more money on your team than you've ever lost!!!!!!

What is the max value you stop taking Hawaii at?

Some notes for those interested that I've gathered about this game..

Nevada is known to struggle on the road, look at their first two games this yr. Now they have to travel to Hawaii where they are a covering machine at home. Hawaii has had the more impressive road up to this game. They lost to two quality teams in Boise St and Alabama, both of which where on the road. They lost to Boise by 7 and Bama by 8. Nevada on the other hand lost to 1-3 Fresno St who needs to jump back on the map and ASU who has been TORCHED their last two games. Now their common opponnet is UNLV, a 42-13 beatdown from Hawaii and a 31-3 win for Nevada. I think this game reveals some important things to look at.. First, Hawaii outrushed UNLV by 175yds, Nevada outrushed them by 106yds. Hawaii outpassed UNLV by 137yds, while UNLV outpassed Nevada by 20yds. I guess you can say Nevada did not have to pass since they were up the whole game.. Nevada was helped by 3 UNLV fumbles, 2 of which they recovered. Hawaii fumbled twice vs. UNLV and lost both of them. Nevada also picked off 2 UNLV passes for a total of 4 Turnovers. UNLV turned the ball over 1 time vs. Hawaii, Hawaii turned it over 4 times and still blasted them. If the situation was reversed for Nevada, could they turn the ball over 4 times and still win by such a margin? My answer is no. The Hawaii game was 42-0 with 6minutes left in the 3rd quater, I just feel they are the superior team, they are more tested, they are home, and they can SCORE...
going to definitly be on the other side of this one when the line goes higher. I know Nevada sucks on the road, and Hawaii plays like warrior gods at home but I just can't help myself when I see two pretty equal teams in a conference battle and I can get +11 to +13. That being said, game could turn ugly quickly if Hawaii comes out flying so It's not a strong play. If things go right Nevada can definitly win this game SU, nevada ML may present the best value. Good luck Hawaii guy and nice line!
Nevada will have a tougher time if Hawaii commits to running the ball. I cant see them stopping Nate Illoa, lmao they cant stop anybody on the ground. I actually think nevada is more prepared to defend the spread/run & shoot/madden video game offense hawaii has than Illoa just barrelling down the line.
Line movement on this is crazy........from 6 1/2 to 14?????

A 7 1/2 point line move on anything is danger........

Hawaii just may cover 14 as well.....but I will take the 4 1/2 middle opportunity.......

Hawaii -9 1/2 440 to win 400
Nevada +14 440 to win 400

Good luck you degenerates......
HG: What happened in this game late? Last I knew Hawaii was up by 20 in the 4th? Always appreciate your input and knowledge on this team and their league.