**** Saturday, May 31st Discussion Thread ****
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
Skubal faced KC once this year -- no decision on Easter Sunday.
7 hits, 2 ER and only 4 strikeouts in 5.0 innings.
The hits and and innings tied for most/lowest this year.
Strikeouts was easily the worst.
Conversely, he's coming off last Sunday mornings masterpiece!
7 hits, 2 ER and only 4 strikeouts in 5.0 innings.
The hits and and innings tied for most/lowest this year.
Strikeouts was easily the worst.
Conversely, he's coming off last Sunday mornings masterpiece!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’m not sure how I feel bout backing him off that gem? The good news is he didn’t even need 100 pitches usually a game like that you see more like 115+ pitches then I’d prob look to play against some guys, most likely not Skubal. He sporting a 18% swinging strike rate this year, can’t remember last time I’ve seen a starter that high! Sal Perez has hit him surprisingly well but other than him I don’t see many kc players w a lot of success. He has punched them out right around 30% their at bats so little surprised to see they hung a 6.5 k number on him, not sure how we don’t play that even w some juice? Last time he didn’t punch out 7+ was that kc game, since then he has went 6 straight games of 8+ k’s, 4 of the he got double digit k’s! Just 3x all year he has failed to punch 7 or more and one of those was gm1 which I don’t really count. My only pause is his last 4 vs kc he has only gotten 7+ in one of them. It doesn’t make a ton of sense tho so I’m little torn.
His record at Kaufman stadium is shockingly bad. 2-5 with an era over 5! I don’t think there anywhere else he has pitched several times and has anything close to that bad. As a team they have an overall exit velo vs him that is above his overall numbers. Maybe kc has a decent plan vs him? Hell if I can figure it out, thdy have a bottom 5 ops vs lhp, why he has struggled here I have no clue? Maybe he eats too much bbq?
His record at Kaufman stadium is shockingly bad. 2-5 with an era over 5! I don’t think there anywhere else he has pitched several times and has anything close to that bad. As a team they have an overall exit velo vs him that is above his overall numbers. Maybe kc has a decent plan vs him? Hell if I can figure it out, thdy have a bottom 5 ops vs lhp, why he has struggled here I have no clue? Maybe he eats too much bbq?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I hate to say it but at the price I’d prob play kc or nothing. Wacha uniquely qualified to get out tigers lefties cause his filthy change he has always had reverse splits where lefties ops is damn near 100 points lower than righties. Not saying I’m playing kc but I would avoid tigers at that price. Still having a hard time not wanting to play skubal k’s. Lol
laopadak
Let‘s Get That Money
Great analysis Bank and even better conclusion. Over strikeouts was circled but gonna pass. That KC BBQ is just hypnotizing
2daBank
Voice of Reason
It’s kinda a tough game to cap for me cause some scubby results their been puzzling.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
His k prop is incredibly tempting, if I didn’t start looking closer I probably woulda just played it. I might regret but for now he a pass for me also. Just the fact they hung a 6.5 might be screaming be careful.
Agreed on that.
He's definitely not tired after last Sunday.
Scooby just mowing them down lately.
I hate using the term but feels like a trappish strikeouts number at 6.5 -142.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yea I’m the same far as the trap thing goes, more times than not I’m a firm believer there a good reason they hang a number that seems easy and we just can’t find it. Think there def some arguments for why it there but it still not easy to pass up, I’d bet that be one the most popular pitcher props bet today. It feels so easy to just play it, when I 1st saw I thought they must be crazy.
Agree totally.
Let's go!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
So these asshokes set Senga k’s at 7.5, he hasn’t stuck out 8 in a game all year but rox strike out a ton! Not sure wtf to do with that? His swinging strike rate below 12% this year, 7.5 a crazy number for that! He has only fanned 7 once all year, but again look down Rockies lineup and there a whole bunch of strikeouts! They also set his walks at 1.5 despite walking 2+ in every game, but then you see Rox have walked less than any team! Lol.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I been going thru their games the past week or so. No starter has gotten to 8 but a lot of guys I wouldn’t consider strike out pitchers got 6-7, fried got 7 and was pulled after 83 pitches so he easily coulda got there. I’ve gotten comfortable playing under out totals but I’m super reluctant to play under k’s with the way all these pricks swing out their shoes these days. If I had any guts I’d play the under 7.5 here, senga is rarely efficient which prob why he has only gotten to 7 once all year, tough to trust he goes much longer than 5 innings but damn Rockies not only have so much swing and miss in the lineup nobody walks either. If I could trust the just stand up there and take all game I’d play the under k’s and over walks!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Damn books set some strong numbers today compared to last few days were I had a crazy amount of plays!! Was hooping for a 15.5 on A’s starter Hoglund but they come with 16.5, might not feel like a lot but it a big difference! The kid has good stuff but enough shaky moments I’m hesitant to need 17 outs to cash. I could def see him going 5.1 then running into trouble and being pulled sometime in the 6th. He season performance so far I think warrants the 15.5 I expected but I like picking on jays lineup so woulda been a buyer there, appears books thought same thing. There no way Sonny gray outs gonna be my only play! I’m not done digging yet
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Another one if I wasn’t scared of under k props I’d prob be on as well!
Like that play in Wrigley, chilly there today, given the total I assume we have a helping wind for pitchers? Long as Lodolo can avoid giving up a bomb to Suzuki think you cash. Gl buddy
GL.
That strikeout # is flying through the roof on the juice side of things.
Interesting they haven't elevated the actual # but I just saw a 167.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
That makes me even more skeptical
I’ll tail. I also took Ray O6.5
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’ll tail. I also took Ray O6.5
I was pretty close to playing Ray k’s or outs. I still might.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I thought cubs starting palmaramz for the 1st was odd but worked out. Guess maybe they thought turning de la Cruz around for 1 at bat instead of letting him see brown 2 straight as a lefty would help, guess it worked but it screwed me out a chance to play brown k’s!! Good bet
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Jfc, Luzardo gets freaking crushed by the dog shit brewers and of course Skubal k’s looks like it really was that easy, I totally fucked up the free money there. Good news is both the out props look to be in pretty good shape. Cabrera k’s is a toss up, I’ll take 3-1 if we can get it but embarrassing coulda had the free skubal money.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
More ER than outs is pretty much a shitty recipe for success
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Even hoglund got his over outs despite giving up a ton of runs. Some these managers are impossible to read, we have total ass clowns like Rocco who yanks guys when they cruising but will leaves Lopez in while getting smashed, other guys like A’s manager lets this kid pitch 6 innings despite getting knocked around every other inning!
I guess the 3 spot Luzardo gave up before turning it on and shutting A’s down with a ton of k’s was a bit a precursor to this shit mess, I actually still had hope even after the 4 run 1st and for a minute it looked like he was gonna calm down and so same thing to milw, but for some reason he had no ability to get out the top 3 in that lineup, something has to be going really wrong wit him, his stuff way to good for these last 2 performances, I wonder if someone found a tell where he tipping pitches? I guess I need to go back and look at the pitch tracks the last few games cause I’m pretty sure the velo and spin have remained the same. Clearly something not right, he looked like a cy young candidate up until these last 2 starts. The 3 at start of game vs A’s I just wrote off as him not being ready to go out the gate, then the 4 today I was like “ok he not getting properly warmed up” but then he gets smashed in another inning after seemingly settling in and I gotta question wtf going on?? Luxardo had only started one other game in Milw and he got knocked around there as well, maybe for some reason he doesn’t like pitching in that park?
Sorry if I talked anyone off skubal, they were giving out free money and I found a way to talk myself out of it!! Just dumb.
I guess the 3 spot Luzardo gave up before turning it on and shutting A’s down with a ton of k’s was a bit a precursor to this shit mess, I actually still had hope even after the 4 run 1st and for a minute it looked like he was gonna calm down and so same thing to milw, but for some reason he had no ability to get out the top 3 in that lineup, something has to be going really wrong wit him, his stuff way to good for these last 2 performances, I wonder if someone found a tell where he tipping pitches? I guess I need to go back and look at the pitch tracks the last few games cause I’m pretty sure the velo and spin have remained the same. Clearly something not right, he looked like a cy young candidate up until these last 2 starts. The 3 at start of game vs A’s I just wrote off as him not being ready to go out the gate, then the 4 today I was like “ok he not getting properly warmed up” but then he gets smashed in another inning after seemingly settling in and I gotta question wtf going on?? Luxardo had only started one other game in Milw and he got knocked around there as well, maybe for some reason he doesn’t like pitching in that park?
Sorry if I talked anyone off skubal, they were giving out free money and I found a way to talk myself out of it!! Just dumb.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Not sure what going on with him last few starts? The A’s game he pulled it together and dominated after the ugly 1st. I actually thought he might do same here and it was just a matter of him not getting warmed up properly but then he goes and get smacked around again in the 4th. I have no clue what going on there? He looked like one the best pitchers in baseball and while he turned it around in the A’s game and ended up w a dominant performance he couldn’t get out any milw top 3 hitters, they not that good and his stuff should have overpowered them.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Now Cabrera gets yanked w/5 ks
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
2 f'n hits in the game through 6. Couple gems!
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Looking like I shoulda just been happy betting the Champions League final today and said fuck MLB
At least college is doing ok
2daBank
Voice of Reason
So I have one total pitcher meltdown, that one on me, 2 losses thanks to managers making stupid moves. Pass the free money on Skubal, gray cashes for 1 and fucking 3 that should have been a 3-1. Fuck me, I need to sell some blood or semen but I can’t get it up after days like this! Lol
