Saturday late again Discussion

A little concerned with how bad Atlanta has been playing but Miller has good history with the ump and is a quality starter on good rest. Buchanan is what he is. Taking Atlanta first half and game. If for no other reason then Philadelphia is 4-11 after shutting a team out.
I do not think I can fade Wainwright after he lost earlier to Brewers but avoiding the game
 
Tor and over parlay, Tor off blowout loss, they are 8-2 L10 off loss, 8-2 L10 Sat but TB good Sat too, TB 1-6 L7 hm vs Lhp, E Ramirez allowed 19 runs in his last 2 mlb starts 6.1 innings, Over 48-23-4 L75 for Meals
 
ATLANTA is 75-44 (+29.8 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
I like Miller, he's on 5 days
Phi 1-11 L12 Buchanan starts, playing RL against him in those 12 is 8-4
Played Atl RL +150 0.5u

 
Bal and over, Gabe and Nbafan both make good cases for over, I like Bal because this is rematch game of biggest misleading score in mlb this season, was on Patriots Day in Fenway and Bos scored a bunch of runs in one inning without even hitting the ball.
 
Col and Over..
Hudson good on 5 days rest in his career, not so much last 2 seasons, 8 starts at Coors 7.29, 2 Coors starts '14 6.75, 0-2 6.75 Hirschbeck
DLR vs SF: 1 start '12 12.27, 4 starts '13 6.16, 5 starts '14 4.87
SF 1-5 L6 game 2's, 5-12 L17 road vs LHP, 6-13 L 19 @ Col, 0-5 L5 vs Col
Col 48-10 L58 DLR home, 21-5 L26 DLR hm fav -110 to -150, 50-15 L65 DLR starts as fav, 8-2 L10 DLR home starts vs SF
Home team 49-24 L73 Hirschbeck
 
Play2win said:
Stl 17-31 on road off a win L2 seasons
Stl 5-14 on road off 3 or more consecutive wins last 3 seasons
Click to expand...
Peralta is on 4 days rest, 10-5 2.64 on 4 days in '14 and did get every decision, gave up 4 in 5 vs Stl this season but 5 starts vs Stl in '14 went 3-1 2.18 era
Mil 5-2 L 7 Peralta starts vs Stl, 5-1 L6 Peralta starts as home/dog +110 - +150
 
austinhous said:
Tuck, I was proud of you yesterday when you said Arizona isn't the same team as they were last season. You can say the same thing about San Diego today. I know that one of McCarthy's starts versus the Padres was in June of last season. The Padres hit .171 last June - the worst batting average for a team over a single month in MLB history.

The Padres saw McCarthy as the opposing starter in their 31st, 52nd, and 80th game of the season last year. As a team they owned a .210 batting average through their first 83 games and were at legitimate risk of breaking the 1910 White Sox’ record for lowest team batting average in MLB history.

As of July 1 last season, Adam Wainwright, Travis Wood, Jacob deGrom, Jhoulys Chacin, and Jacob Turner all had better batting averages, on-base percentages, and slugging percentages than the 2014 San Diego Padres did at the time, and those dudes are pitchers! link

;)
Click to expand...

solid point
 
Play2win said:
Col and Over..
Hudson good on 5 days rest in his career, not so much last 2 seasons, 8 starts at Coors 7.29, 2 Coors starts '14 6.75, 0-2 6.75 Hirschbeck
DLR vs SF: 1 start '12 12.27, 4 starts '13 6.16, 5 starts '14 4.87
SF 1-5 L6 game 2's, 5-12 L17 road vs LHP, 6-13 L 19 @ Col, 0-5 L5 vs Col
Col 48-10 L58 DLR home, 21-5 L26 DLR hm fav -110 to -150, 50-15 L65 DLR starts as fav, 8-2 L10 DLR home starts vs SF
Home team 49-24 L73 Hirschbeck
Click to expand...
Col 17-4 DLR home/night starts L3 seasons
 
austinhous said:
I don't think any book had trouble bringing in money on the over at Camden, yet there's a ten-cent move in the other direction at Pinny within the last hour. Heritage is even letting you bet a flat 8 now.
Click to expand...


Same thing happened yesterday with nearly 80% on the over. It doesn't matter when there's playoff games going on in other sports. Books aren't gonna lose sleep over it.
 
AJ good March / April career but 5 Chase starts 5.22 era
Arizona's DLR is on 6 days rest, 8 career starts 6 or more days 4-1 3.65 era
Pit 10-26 AJ road starts L2 seasons, 8-17 off 3 or more consecutive wins last 2 seasons
 
Can't make heads or tails as far as side LAD/SD, lean under
Kennedy returns off injury, 10-1 as home dog +100 - +125 career (teams record)
McCarthy good on 5 days rest but, 8-18 March/April 5.21 era, 2 good starts and 1 bad one at SD, 1 bad start vs SD this season
LAD 2-7 L9 road
SD 9-3 L12 Kennedy home starts, 2-7 L9 Kennedy starts vs LAD
Over 6-2 L8 series but Under 13-3 L16 in SD
Under 33-16-3 L52 Foster Saturday games
 
Play2win said:
Can't make heads or tails as far as side LAD/SD, lean under
Kennedy returns off injury, 10-1 as home dog +100 - +125 career (teams record)
McCarthy good on 5 days rest but, 8-18 March/April 5.21 era, 2 good starts and 1 bad one at SD, 1 bad start vs SD this season
LAD 2-7 L9 road
SD 9-3 L12 Kennedy home starts, 2-7 L9 Kennedy starts vs LAD
Over 6-2 L8 series but Under 13-3 L16 in SD
Under 33-16-3 L52 Foster Saturday games
Click to expand...
McCarthy 1-12 as fav -100 to -125 career (teams record)
 
Play2win said:
Bal and over, Gabe and Nbafan both make good cases for over, I like Bal because this is rematch game of biggest misleading score in mlb this season, was on Patriots Day in Fenway and Bos scored a bunch of runs in one inning without even hitting the ball.
Click to expand...
only played 7, shortened bc of rain
 
Hirschbeck is one of a small handfull of guys that would take some ridiculous exception for me to bet over and I like DLR in Denver way too much to bet on him giving up a bunch of runs
 
nbafan88 said:
Same thing happened yesterday with nearly 80% on the over. It doesn't matter when there's playoff games going on in other sports. Books aren't gonna lose sleep over it.
Click to expand...

Massive public wins on ATL and STL today too. But this makes sense, and I can say you've probably got a few years experience on me. Thanks for putting this into perspective. I try to always look at the %s and it was not making sense until now.

:shake:
 
austinhous said:
Massive public wins on ATL and STL today too. But this makes sense, and I can say you've probably got a few years experience on me. Thanks for putting this into perspective. I try to always look at the %s and it was not making sense until now.

:shake:
Click to expand...

No problem. Some people think i'm crazy for looking at %'s. Some think they are hocus pocus. The %'s are 100% accurate but it's an art, not a science. It's very important to understand that the public wins too... its just he significant/national tv games that are usually going to have more effort put in by the linemakers.... it only makes sense doesn't it?
 
Oh boy, one time, and I'm going to try to be civil.

You aren't crazy for looking at them, it's disingenuous to come across like you some have some inside perspective to figure this "art form" out. It's drama and silly. And what does "100% accurate" mean? Please expand the experience you have with this as opposed to others. A shit ton of people use percentages, what's it that you understand that others don't?

I really need clarification on the 100% accurate part.

Welcome back. :shake:
 
Nbafan has been spot on from day 1 on public percentages, I'll take who the books need all day everyday, fading public basically, glad to see nbafan posting
 
It's fine and it's the farthest thing from absolute, as it's made out to be, and you and I both know that.

It's a speck in the fiber of the overall picture, sometimes a bigger speck.

Let's face it P, if you wanted to just take who the books need all day everyday, you can do that easily by looking at some charts and do literally no work. I'd go that route if it's so easy.
 
kjohnson109 said:
Oh boy, one time, and I'm going to try to be civil.

You aren't crazy for looking at them, it's disingenuous to come across like you some have some inside perspective to figure this "art form" out. It's drama and silly. And what does "100% accurate" mean? Please expand the experience you have with this as opposed to others. A shit ton of people use percentages, what's it that you understand that others don't?

I really need clarification on the 100% accurate part.

Welcome back. :shake:
Click to expand...

It's fine if you don't believe them. I do.

You can't simply look at %'s and fade the high %'s. You need to understand why a line is what is. That is the key part. I don't make my own lines and try to find value. Not my style at all. I never said I am better than others. Don't put words in my mouth. :shake:

Until you can prove to me that they are just made up numbers (which is a preposterous accusation given how realistic the numbers are when you actually apply common sense) then it's your opinion against mine.

Do you ever wonder why books give sportsinsights the information? This is what is in SI's FAQ...

Why would any sportsbook allow Sports Insights to display these percentages? Doesn’t this information hurt the sportsbooks? This is one of the most popular questions asked. Let’s just say it wasn’t easy getting the ball rolling. It took Sports Insights over a year to convince the original participants to allow the release of this information. It basically comes down to the sportsbooks wanting and needing to attract new members. The sports betting industry in general believes that the availability of betting percentages will soon become as common as standard betting lines. Sports Insights is the company that finally put all the pieces together and broke the ice. The sportsbooks that participate with us feel that members knowing which side the public is favoring will not hurt their business model. Bettors still have to pick winners. Think of this in another way. Why do sportsbooks advertise on sites/phone services (touts) that guarantee winners? No matter what any site guarantees or offers, you still have to win. Sports Insights’ mission from day one has been to help its members make informed decisions based on facts. Always remember, any information is only as good as the person using it.


If you disagree with it, that's fine. You have absolutely nothing to back up your notion. It's not the be all, end all. Its one of MANY tools that I use and IMO if you are not incorporating %'s in your decision making in some way, you are doing a disservice to yourself.

That's all I am going to say on it. Good luck.
 
But I already said that, in fact I said it almost verbatim.

It's the 100% absolute, the art form that you understand that others don't.

There are people here who make lines, have made lines for a living. There are people who make power numbers who make a living off of that. Should they waiver on their numbers based on percentages? Maybe...but maybe they are better than the maker of the number. When you are worried about other as opposed to yourself, it's going to lose over time or this stuff would be easy. And I think you know that. And I absolutely am concerned at times when the percentages aren't in my favor.

It's the absolute art of it that you suggest that I'm interested in. What is 100% accurate? What do you get that I don't? Or that others don't?
 
kjohnson109 said:
But I already said that, in fact I said it almost verbatim.

It's the 100% absolute, the art form that you understand that others don't.

There are people here who make lines, have made lines for a living. There are people who make power numbers who make a living off of that. Should they waiver on their numbers based on percentages? Maybe...but maybe they are better than the maker of the number. When you are worried about other as opposed to yourself, it's going to lose over time or this stuff would be easy. And I think you know that. And I absolutely am concerned at times when the percentages aren't in my favor.

It's the absolute art of it that you suggest that I'm interested in. What is 100% accurate? What do you get that I don't? Or that others don't?
Click to expand...


You're taking my words, spinning them to start an argument, and I am just not interested in going back and forth. Have a good night.
 
those #'s on sportsinsight are not accurate. Allec can put whatever # he wants there.

A game might have 83% of the wagers, but that doesn't mean it has 83% of the volume. I believe in RLM and sharp sides, that is a science but it isn't as simple as looking at who SI says has 70% + of bets and fading. Those #'s are bullshit.
 
nbafan88 said:
You're taking my words, spinning them to start an argument, and I am just not interested in going back and forth. Have a good night.
Click to expand...

What I didn't do was spin anything. I agreed with you to a degree. If you want to help folks out, what is it that you understand that those of us who can learn from you don't?
 
They are the amount of wagers. Not the amount of money. The whole purpose is to see how the general public feels. Not the wise guy who is moving the line. The point is you have to use the %'s in conjunction with understanding why a line is what it is. I look at 10 different things when capping a baseball total. The %'s mean very little to me in baseball because of how little wiggle room there is on a total. There is reverse line movement. And then there is a fake reverse line movement. It's not all cut and dry. And when I say it's an art, what I mean is BETTING is an art. A lot of factors go into making a wager. The %'s are ONE aspect.
 
kjohnson109 said:
What I didn't do was spin anything. I agreed with you to a degree. If you want to help folks out, what is it that you understand that those of us who can learn from you don't?
Click to expand...

I never said that I understand anything that others don't. That's where you're spinning my words.
 
It's been inferred. If you don't mean it that way, then all good. :cheers3:

%s cost a lot of people a fuckload of money, and it's a terrible way to think you can beat the system. It's nice for knowledge but a death sentence to your account if you rely on it...can be helpful to a degree, but know where it ends.
 
Lots of things cost people lots of money. The %s are only one tool. If someone can't utilize the information properly to be in the black then this should not be something to invest much time/money in. And writing it off as completely irrelevant and made up %s because people lose a fuckload of money is ignorance.

I really could not care less but Ive had this perception on CTG that I think I'm better than everyone else and that notion is both ridiculous and untrue. It's really quite annoying and dumb.
 
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