Saturday i will be at the beach Discussion

[GWarner27]

leans from the BOL open:
PHI +185
PIT +150
LAD u6
BAL +105/o8.5
DET u6.5
CHW o8.5
OAK +100/u6.5

on the radar:
PHI u7.5
StL u7: B. Welke
DET -128
MIN u7.5
TEX o9

 

[BiffTFinancial]

leans
Yanks/Rays under 7
Pirates ML
M's/Tigers under 6'
Cubs/Mets under 7'
Jays ML/game over 9/Jays TT over [4'?]
Royals/Twins FF under [3'/4?]
Padres/Cardinals under 7
Angels RL
Grand Salami under

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Since July 4th, Detroit has gone 8-18 SU vs. AL teams & 9-3 SU vs. NL teams:

@home
7-0 SU vs. NL teams - avg. of 7.14 runs for, 2.71 runs against
2-9 SU vs. AL teams - avg of 3.36 runs for, 6.81 runs against

------

In the King's last 16 starts for Seattle, no opponent has scored more than 2 runs before the start of the 9th inning.

The average score for the losing team in the King's 25 starts this season is 1.920 runs (1.916 runs in 12 road starts).

 

[BetCrimes1984]

With their win over Toronto, the WS are now 8-3 SU (6.18 rpg for) in home game 1's as a dog this season. However, as a dog in home game 2's they've gone 2-7 SU (avg. 3.33 rpg for).

The WS have also shown a season long tendency to follow up higher scoring game 1's with similar scoring game 2's: their 11 previous game 1 Overs have thus far been followed by a 8-3 to Over mark for game 2's.

-----

In their last 40 games, Toronto is 6-1 SU vs. Boston & 10-23 SU against all other teams. However, dissecting that latter figure shows they're best performed in game 2's...
Game 1: 2-9 SU
Game 2: 5-5 SU
Game 3: 3-7 SU
Game 4: 0-2 SU

 

[BetCrimes1984]

The Royals are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games decided by 1-2 runs (their previous best mark for over any 12 straight 1-2 run games was 8-4 SU). They went 21-26 SU in their previous 47 games decided by 1-2 runs this season.

The Royals have gone 23 games without suffering a 2-4 run margin loss. Their previous best runs avoiding such a loss were 14, then 10 games.

 

[BiffTFinancial]

leans
Yanks/Rays under 7
Pirates ML
M's/Tigers under 6'
Cubs/Mets under 7'
Jays ML/game over 9/Jays TT over [4'?]
Royals/Twins FF under [3'/4?]
Padres/Cardinals under 7
Angels RL
Grand Salami under

scratch Salami under. between Ubaldo, Danks, Axelrod making his first Coors start and Rangers general malaise, that under is getting blown up somewhere.

can't think of a good reason not to play Yanks/Rays under, Jays TT over, Angels RL

 

[BiffTFinancial]

Rangers have lost 37 of 59 home games. 31 of the 37 losses have been by multiple runs (last night being their 6th one-run home loss).

 

[GWarner27]

Cle: Kulpa
Wsh: Wegner
Det: Randazzo
Bos: Joyce
NYM: Cuzzi
Mia: Baker
TB: Danley
Atl: Marquez
Tex: Cooper
ChiW: Tichenor
Min: Reynolds
StL: Bill Welke
Col: Scott
LAD: Hudson
SF: West

Cuz no one lets me combine the two most useful threads on the planet I will take my own liberty today

 

[BetCrimes1984]

D'bags are 0-7 SU (avg. losing margin of 2.71 runs) their L7 instances playing on the road off a SU win.

D'bags are 4-9 SU (avg. losing margin of 3.44 runs) this season playing off a win & on the road vs. a non-divisional opponent.

D'bags are 2-8 SU (avg. losing margin of 3.75 runs) their L10 instances of playing off a SU win.

D'bags have gone 5 road games without suffering a 2+ run margin loss. This matches their season high for such a feat (achieved twice previously). Prior to this current streak, they averaged a 2+ run loss once every 2.41 road games played.

----

Miami is 7-3 SU their L10 instances off playing off a SU loss. All but 1 of those wins was by a 1 run margin.

Miami has played 19 games without a 4+ run margin win. Their previous longest streaks w/out such a margin win this season have been 15, 14, 13 & 12 games. Prior to this current streak, they averaged a 4+ run win once every 6.44 games played.

 

[BiffTFinancial]

scratch Salami under. between Ubaldo, Danks, Axelrod making his first Coors start and Rangers general malaise, that under is getting blown up somewhere.

can't think of a good reason not to play Yanks/Rays under, Jays TT over, Angels RL

Played Yanks/Rays under 7, Jays TT over 4' -125

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Baltimore hasn't lost consecutively played road games since May 29-30, going 9-0 SU on the road off a road loss since then.

Baltimore is 12-0 SU off their L12 losses, 16-1 SU off their L17 losses, and 20-2 SU off their L22 losses.

------

Cleveland hasn't conceded a 3+ run total for 5 games: their previous longest streak for such a feat was 2 games (5 times).

 

[tuck321]

Splits in Yank game
Smyly on 4 0-7 4.79 ERA
day ERA 5.05

Green on 6 4.62 based on 11.2
Greene in day 2.13
Rays 14-5 Saturdays
Yanks 15-8 after a shutout last 3 years
I think there might be scoring

 

[tuck321]

Gread day of week for Cards 13-6
Hahn on 4 4-0 1.38 ERA
Miley on 5 2-5 5.05 ERA
Alvarez poor on 6 think high 4
Shelby Miller on 4 5-7 4.48
Probably hitting Padres first 5

 

[C-MAN]

Holland is not available today for KC

 

[tuck321]

Lyles on 4 4-0 2.05 ERA on him today

 

[Timh]

Nats 10-5 at home vs. LH, hitting .272 and scoring 4.55 r/9. Nats are 9-3-3 over the total in those games.

 

[smo1a]

What am I missing in Kc / Minny? Pretty strong line for twins, no?

 

[tuck321]

With ump Price has a 5 ERA based on 9 innings
With ump Felix has a 8.25 ERA based on 12 innings
Pretty scary for all popular bets

 

[austinhous]

Obligatory "Great reason to fade Kershaw" post that never comes true.. Brewers 6-2 SU in Gallardo's starts lined ≥ 150 since 2013 (5-0 SU since Aug 23, 2013). All road games. Avg line 160. Kershaw in B2B starts versus the Brewers <strike>although it didn't seem to bother Greinke last night.</strike>

 

[tuck321]

Would not say that. Greinke only lasted 5 innings and had 5 walks

 

[austinhous]

With ump Price has a 5 ERA based on 9 innings
With ump Felix has a 8.25 ERA based on 12 innings
Pretty scary for all popular bets

Even so dude, Randazzo is 11-2-1 to the under this season. So it's like, which way do you go?

And you are talking four total games these guys have pitched with Randazzo as well: two back in '12 and then one each in '07 and '09.

 

[austinhous]

Would not say that. Greinke only lasted 5 innings and had 5 walks

did not realize that

 

[tuck321]

That is true which is why I have made no bet on the game. I do better betting real opinions. GL

 

[tuck321]

Ubaldo on 6 this season
3.26 ERA based on 30.1 innings
looks like a mandatory bet