Saturday Fondybadger's Week 4 CFB

Fondybadger

Fondybadger

CTG Partner
2006 College Football 87-64-5 +$2803
 Week 1 37-33-1 +$286
Week 2 26-25-2 +$757
Week 3 19-6-2 +$1357
Week 4 5-0 +$403
Favorites 50-39-4 +$1505
1H Faves 18-14 +$636
Faves 32-25-4 +$869

Money Lines 2-3 +$98

Dogs 21-13-1 +$602
 1H Dogs 0-2 -$300
 2H Dogs 2-0 +$155
Dogs 19-11-1 +$747

Overs 5-5 +$81
 1H OVER 2-2 +$79
Over 3-3 +$2

Unders 9-4 +$517
 1H Under 2-0 +$100
Under 7-4 +$417

Friday Play (thoughts in post #45)
$200 Nevada -7 -105
$50 Nev/NW 1H OVER 23.5 -110

 Saturday Plays
12:00 PM Plays
$300 Michigan -14 -105
$300 Michigan 1H -7 -110
$100 Minnesota -2.5
$50 Minnesota 1H -0.5
 $100 Louisville -9
$100 Louisville -13.5
$150 Louisville 1H -7 -115
$200 Iowa -20.5 -105
$100 Iowa 1H -12.5 -105
 $50 Middle Tennessee State +28.5

1:00 PM Plays
$75 Bowling Green -7

 1:30 PM Plays
$150 Virginia Tech 1H -14 -120

2:30 PM Plays
$150 Buffalo +43
$150 Aub/Buf OVER 48
$150 Buffalo 1st Half +24 +102
$150 Aub/Buf OVER 27.5 +105

3:30 PM Plays
$150 Rice +31
$75 Rice/FSU under 48
 $250 Ohio State -15.5 -109
$100 Ohio State 1H -10
$75 Washington State -10
$50 UCLA -3

4:30 PM Plays
$250 West Virginia -20 -110
$300 West Virginia 1H -13.5 -113

6:00 PM Plays
$10 to Win $150 Ole' Miss wins by 3

7:00 PM Plays
$200 Western Michigan 1H -16.5
 $100 South Carolina 1H -17
 $100 Nebraska 1H -14

7:45 PM Plays
$100 Florida 1H -14 -115

8:00 PM Plays
$200 Boston College -6 -125
$100 LSU 1H -21
$300 USC -15.5 -112
$150 USC 1H -13.5 -105

Leans
Iowa State +25
California -8
UTEP -9.5
Arkansas -1.5
Utah -8
Boise State +15
Notre Dame -3
Idaho +24.5

Write ups for all of these plays are below in other posts. Good Luck!!!

 
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alright going to take a breather now, talk to some other guys on these SEC games, figure out if I'm taking Minny or not, think about texas (ie coattail) and go from there...
 
Right now i am leanin arkansas. I am not impressed with Bama and their soft schedule. Mustain looked good last week and they had nice balance in the running game
 
dman...great lines. on nevada, a pt higher. and louisville and usc are certain plays as well...jsut missed those great opening lines.
 
$250 West Virginia -20
I'm fading East Carolina and their shitty run defense (117th out of 118 schools). After watching Stanton on Thursday night, I can't wait to see what he'll do against a defenese like that. Trying to put up Heismann numbers, I see this being more than a blowout than you can imagine. Mad at myself for not getting this number in the teens late last night.

$200 Boston College -6 (-125)
Got the team I liked under a TD, I'll take it. Bought it down to 6 from 6.5, as I think it will be a bit of a struggle scoring the ball in this one. I didn't hit this at the opening number because wolfpack17 told me he thought his boys could win this game straight up. Although I disagreed with him at the time, I felt I could wait and get some more opinions. Today he informed me that NCST is going to be making a QB change and their backup will be starting this week. NCST if they didn't already look like fade material definately does now.

$150 Wake Forest +3
Most places are down to 2.5 right now, my local/scores&odds/sports.com still have this line at 3. Wake Forest should keep this game close and I don't feel that Ole' Miss if they do win SU, will win by more than a fg. Three on this play is the magic number. If you can't get it at three, I would not play it, or if I did play it on ML or for a lot less. Also RambleOn, who's a grad student at Ole' Miss told me he liked the Decons, and so far he hasn't been wrong on his school this year.
 
Fondy - For starters, hats off to your Badgers who owned my Aztecs last week. 0 Points allowed.

On to this week. I really like USC, Nevada, Louisville, and Wake Forest. I'll probably jump on those shortly...missed the early LOU & USC lines. Arrgh! :hairout:

WV looking solid in that spot as well. GL this week! :cheers:
 
Not that it matters much but when i checked those stats fondy they were 117 i think they are 112 now ;)
 
I just wanted to add to everyone who's reading this thread this week that every Sunday night there's 15-25 of us in here breaking down the next weeks card, and waiting to hit early opening lines. Can definately get some good lines then. I encourage everyone to join us on Sunday's and if you haven't signed up do so soon.

BOL THIS WEEK!
 
Fondy, Louisville and Michigan look like easy money. I was checking the consensus and that seems to be the case. My only concern is jumping in too late. Do you think it's too late? Or are they still good values now?
 
Louisville

To all:

If you are getting UL around 9-10, jump all over it. I know you got the early line and it was smart. Look for UL to cover around 18-19 pts. Possibly 16, but I don't see it going much closer than that.
 
all i know is that i locked in my plays at 11pm the night they came out on pinny (bout 5 hours after release)....i got fucked so badly on a few lines!! cant believe the movement in a matter of hours!!
 
Fondybadger said:
$250 West Virginia -20
I'm fading East Carolina and their shitty run defense (117th out of 118 schools). After watching Stanton on Thursday night, I can't wait to see what he'll do against a defenese like that. Trying to put up Heismann numbers, I see this being more than a blowout than you can imagine. Mad at myself for not getting this number in the teens late last night.

$200 Boston College -6 (-125)
Got the team I liked under a TD, I'll take it. Bought it down to 6 from 6.5, as I think it will be a bit of a struggle scoring the ball in this one. I didn't hit this at the opening number because wolfpack17 told me he thought his boys could win this game straight up. Although I disagreed with him at the time, I felt I could wait and get some more opinions. Today he informed me that NCST is going to be making a QB change and their backup will be starting this week. NCST if they didn't already look like fade material definately does now.

$150 Wake Forest +3
Most places are down to 2.5 right now, my local/scores&odds/sports.com still have this line at 3. Wake Forest should keep this game close and I don't feel that Ole' Miss if they do win SU, will win by more than a fg. Three on this play is the magic number. If you can't get it at three, I would not play it, or if I did play it on ML or for a lot less. Also RambleOn, who's a grad student at Ole' Miss told me he liked the Decons, and so far he hasn't been wrong on his school this year.
Click to expand...


Ask him is he crazy b/c without Darrell Blackman that offense will struggle.
 
Over the coure of the day I'll finalize my Saturday card and let ya's know what I'd take games up to if there has been a major line change...
 
$300 Michigan -14 -105
$300 Michigan 1st Half -7 -110
I love my Wisconsin Badger's, but the offense isn't there this year. John Stocco's completion percentage isn't up to par entering Big 10 play. This is caused by a number of reasons. First, he has a young offensive line that hasn't experienced much game action. He does have one of the top linemen in the country at LT protecting his blind side in Joe Thomas, and at LG is a highschool linemate of Thomas. In the Western Illinois game though Stocco was repeated hurried and sacked three times. The final hit knocking him out of the game with a jaw injury. Second, Wisconsin lost their top 2 rbs, fb, top 3 TE's and top 4 WR's from last years squad to graduation. Also, Marcus Randall El, the projected #1 WR this year tore up his knee right before the season and is out for the year. Last week versus SD Stocco had 12 completed passes. The most was to PJ Hill the starting RB with 3. Stocco has no "go to" WR, and his safety valve from past season, Owen Daniels, is no longer there. With this offense against a stout Michigan defense I don't see more than 7-13 points.

On defense the front 7 are solid for Wisconsin. The defensive line goes 7 or 8 deep with starter experience. Joe Stelmacher leads the DB's, who haven't had much game experience as both CB's are first year starters. If Hart can get by the front 4, he should be able to create some long gains as Wisconsin has been playing all season to stop the run bringing up the safeties. In this game with Henne at QB they shouldn't be able to do that.

The first 3 weeks of the season Wisconsin has played Bowling Green, Western Illinois, and San Diego State (4th non-conference is Buffalo - eek). Anyways, this is a HUGE step up in talent for Wisconsin defense, while Wisconsin's offense has struggled all season thus far. PJ Hill, Wisconsin's freshmen stud running back, will be playing in his first road Big 10 stadium, where Wisconsin won't have an overwhelming presence. The only knock I see is Michigan may have a bit of a hangover from their upset win at Notre Dame, but talent should carry the day. Look for a few long plays from Hart and Henne and Wisconsin turning the ball early in the game because of bad routes or nerves.

Predicted Score 31-10 Michigan


 
Sounds good Fondulous...Line went to 13 at Pinny...hmmm

Michigan wins this one ugly. Wisky sems to have a good defense this year. I too see 10 points for Wisky in a 25-10 UM win..lol
 
On the other side of Iowa, but I like the rest (might play WV 1st half, but ECU game though):smiley_acbe: :cheers:money;
 
$100 Minnesota -2.5
$50 Minnesota 1H -0.5
I made the mistake of waiting on this line, although I only lost the .5 from the opening line. BetCris opened Minny up at +2, but I only have the Pinny account where it opened -2. Anyways, Minny has the much better team this season. Purdue is in sort of a rebuilding mode, and I believe they will struggle in Big 10 play. I'd make Minny a 10-14 point favorite at home in this one, so I think there's some solid value.

$100 Louisville -9
$100 Louisville -13.5
$150 Louisville 1H -7 -115
This team is still loaded and they have the depth to overcome the Bush and Brohm injuries. K State is an absolute horrible team, and I look for the Cardinals to get ahead early and cover the two Td's most of the game, but most importantly at the end when it matters most.

I don't really have any thoughts on Clemson and North Carolina.

$200 Iowa -20.5 -105
$100 Iowa 1H -12.5 -105
Hit the line early as anything 21 and under is a gift imo, while I think Iowa wins by 28-35. Illinois showed just showed how truely awful they are in getting beat at home by Syracuse. I mean Cuse can't beat anyone on the road. Iowa should have no problems in this one.

$50 Middle Tennessee State +28.5
I think this is one of those small value plays I like to make. Getting that hook .5 is very important I feel. Looking for Okie to win in the low 20's...
 
I lean towards Georigia to woop up on Colorado but I don't know either team well enough to take them right now.

$75 Bowling Green -7
I don't think they're as bad as they've looked so far. Now Kent is a bad team. Bowling Green should have put things together by now, and should have a nice double digit win in this home game.

The Tulsa/Navy game confuses me way too much to make a play on it.

$150 Virginia Tech 1H -14 -120
I personally think that Cincy is overrated this week after their awesome showing in the first half against Ohio State last week. Remember tOSU was coming off of the Texas win, and Va Tech will see what they did and come out swinging. Also not a rivalry game...

No thougths on Ohio/Mizzou

$150 Buffalo +43
$150 Aub/Buf OVER 48
$150 Buffalo 1st Half +24 +102
$150 Aub/Buf OVER 27.5 +105
When I saw Irons was out and my local still has this at 43, it was a no brainer... Not too often you see a 43-0, 44-0, 45-0, 46-0, 47-0, 48-0... where I'd lose both. Just need a field goal in the game from Buffalo and I'm guaranteed the split. I'll take that once again. Decided to take the 1st half as well as I'm getting that at plus juice...

Leaning towards Utah State, but I'll hold off until at least game day if I go on them at all. BYU just doesn't impress me that much.
 
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$150 Rice +31
$75 Rice/FSU under 48
I don't think that Florida State has the offense to put up a ton of points, and Rice isn't that bad of a team to be treated like a Temple. Over the last 3 years when the public has been on the over in a Rice game it hits at 17% going 2-11... Fading the public who's knocking up the total.

 $250 Ohio State -15.5 -109
$100 Ohio State 1h -10
tOSU is the class of college football - argh saying that makes me ill... Anyways, the PSU defense needs to be rebuilt and the team just isn't the way they were last year. I look for this game to be out of hand relatively early, as tOSU comes out in this game focused. Mark May just said that tOSU is too fast, too big, and too good for PSU. Would take this game up to -17 and even -21 for a lot less...

I may coattail Iowa State against Texas if i can get a few more points. With SHSUHorn fading his home team, hard not to be on them...

$75 Washington State -10
I just believe Stanford is that bad. Straight fade of them...

$50 UCLA -3Got the number I want, but this is strictly a gut play. May be playing the UCLA name as I haven't watched either team this season.

Don't have a whole lot of thoughts on Tenny/Marshall.

If I can get UConn +3 I'll take them on the road at Indiana.

No thoughts on Central/Eastern Michigan.

AirForce/Wyoming is a toss up to me.

 $250 West Virginia -20 -110
$300 West Virginia 1H -13.5 -113
I'm fading East Carolina and their shitty run defense (117th out of 118 schools). After watching Stanton on Thursday night, I can't wait to see what he'll do against a defenese like that. Trying to put up Heismann numbers, I see this being more than a blowout than you can imagine. Mad at myself for not getting this number in the teens late last night.

I wish I would have hit California when they were at -7 against ASU.

I don't know enough about UTEP/NM but would love some thoughts...

$10 to Win $150 Ole' Miss wins by 3
I got caught with my pants down on the Wake Forest injuries. I decided to cancel out the play which cost me $10, but I have WF +3 and Ole Miss -2.5 or -2, I forget, but if Ole Miss wins by 3 I get a win and a push. Don't really like Ole' Miss otherwise.

I have no thoughts on North Texas/Akron.


 
I won't touch Syracuse after their emotional win last week. Especially as a favorite even if it's against Miami (Oh).

I'm taking a very hard look at Arkansas and if the line keeps dropping, I'll hop on it.

Army/Baylor isn't a game for me.

$200 Western Michigan 1H -16.5
Keep fading Temple first half... I don't care who they play or what the line is, I'm fading them.

No thoughts on Kansas/South Florida, Lou Tech/Tex A&M, Miss St./UAB

$150 South Carolina 1H -17
$150 Nebraska 1H -14
$150 Florida 1H -14 -115
$150 LSU 1H -21
Value lines in my opinion.

$200 Boston College -6 -125
NCST has been a horrible team so far this season and they're playing their backup this week. I'll fade them.

Was looking at Utah, but the line is getting away from me. May make a $50-$75 play as long as I can get it under 10 against SDST.

Going to coattail Hawaiiguy on Hawaii at Boise State.

I don't have a lot of confidence in Michigan State but then BAR and the boys like them, so we'll see... If I can get a good line on Notre Dame, I'll hit it.

$300 USC -15.5 -112
$100 USC 1H -13.5 -105
I love USC, but I won't take it over -21. Amazing my 1st Half line is almost the same as the game line. Ah well... should cover.

Arky St/SMU, Okie St./Houston no opinions

I may take Idaho over Oregon State, but I'm looking for some opinions.
 
Looking at the Nevada/Northwestern game, I can't get a good feel for the total for the game. Looks like one of those lines thats going to be either way too low or way too high. I almost feel as if it is going to be way too low. With that said - I think there is better value on the 1H line and then I can figure out what I'd like to do in the second half if I'm around a computer (which I don't think I'll be - hence letting it ride)...

$50 Nev/NW 1H OVER 23.5 -110

As of now I don't think that I will play any 1Q action on this game, but would actually lean towards Northwester +0.5 at + money and the over 10 which is also at plus money. I see a 7-7 game after 1. While 21-10 at halftime with a wolfpack lead.
 
CollegeKingRex said:
GL this weekend Fondy...

Nice job last week, looks like it was a good one in the colleges for most of us...
Click to expand...

What sucks is blowing more than half of last weeks profits drinking this week... lol

I'm taking all of my leans at $75 a piece...
Iowa State +25
California -8
UTEP -9.5
Arkansas -1.5
Utah -8
Boise State +15
Notre Dame -3
Idaho +24.5
 
Fondy, you're thinking right about the NCSU/BC game. Daniel Evans is probably a better passer than Marcus Stone, but he too went 8-11, a TD, and a pick last week. He's young. Should be good for a few turnovers...especially this damned wolfpack team.

they're definitely damned, by the way. I DAMN THeM ALL THE TIME.
 
Damn Fondy, what games aren't you playing?? Card looks solid (I hope since we have a lot of the same plays:-) - Good Luck!
 
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