Saturday Discussion Thread

Looks like they gonna have me on kc all series. Mentioned this yesterday but this been reds typical MO, once they go on a run and got back around .500 they fall back off. Crazy to me they significant favs over kc both games so far. Game 1 starting pitching was pretty much a wash, think case could be made for wacha over lodolo, he more consistent anyways, regardless which pitcher you prefer over I don’t think any question who been the better team. At these prices I’d play kc 100x in a row vs reds and I’m pretty confident not only I’d come out ahead but kc would actually win more of the games!
 
Do we buy Springs is returning to form? He shut o’s down last time out, I have looked up to see if his velo and spin had returned to before the injury as they had been down before that last start, think they prob the key, if his velo, spin, movement all closer to pre injury prob not a good fade. If things were still down coulda just been fortunate, just gotta look at the o’s start for velo etc etc plus look for exit velo off bats, barrell rate. Coulda just been a one off, or even if he was good I still say they brought him back early so it possible he will have good and bad starts rest this season.
 
I'll get more involved Saturday. Took several days off this week. Sunday was not good to me. Lost my last 3 posted plays here so needed a break. Not going to make any plays or suggestions tonight but I hate giving out plays that lose. Doesn't matter if anyone follows or not but sometimes a break is necessary. Good luck everyone!
 
And thanks for everyone giving out good info. As we know good info and trends aren't locks but it helps whether to put it in parlays or what-have-you. 2daBank is so solid on almost everything he posts. He is like me, knows the NL Central but I have to tip my hat as he thought Royals were a good play yesterday. I woulda teed off on Reds and over but my discipline kept me off all action this week since Sunday. Can't wait for tomorrow, I think I might give a couple plays worthy to get coin on, but nothing as of right now. Never again will I post a play way early (doesn't mean I might bet something anyway).
 
2daBank said:
Looks like they gonna have me on kc all series. Mentioned this yesterday but this been reds typical MO, once they go on a run and got back around .500 they fall back off. Crazy to me they significant favs over kc both games so far. Game 1 starting pitching was pretty much a wash, think case could be made for wacha over lodolo, he more consistent anyways, regardless which pitcher you prefer over I don’t think any question who been the better team. At these prices I’d play kc 100x in a row vs reds and I’m pretty confident not only I’d come out ahead but kc would actually win more of the games!
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Thought exactly what you said when I saw the score last night. It's a mindset/culture thing. They're not ready or mentally there to win games and series like this.
 
peelpub94 said:
AZ TT o3.5 -115 on DK

Marte is expected back today. Dbacks TT has gone over 3.5 9 out of the last 10 vs lefties.
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Did you happen to peak at Springs velo, spin, etc his last game vs o’s? I was busy doing preseason most the night so never got around to it but curious if his numbers were back up to prior to injury or still down? I kinda feel like even if he flashes good he still back to early so good chance the consistency not gonna be here prob until next season. Def interested in snakes total. Hell I might actually like the full game total here Gallen hasn’t really looked like that dude and even back when he was a beast he had a tendency to struggle in East ciiast day games, this one starting a bit later but he has had some real stinkers even vs bad offenses in east coast day starts, rays offense def falls into that category but it’s a nice super low number! Neither one these pens scare me either! If the starters don’t go deep which i def don’t expect springs would, gallen history in those games says he won’t either, I could see the pens allowing damn near 7!!
 
2daBank said:
Did you happen to peak at Springs velo, spin, etc his last game vs o’s? I was busy doing preseason most the night so never got around to it but curious if his numbers were back up to prior to injury or still down? I kinda feel like even if he flashes good he still back to early so good chance the consistency not gonna be here prob until next season. Def interested in snakes total. Hell I might actually like the full game total here Gallen hasn’t really looked like that dude and even back when he was a beast he had a tendency to struggle in East ciiast day games, this one starting a bit later but he has had some real stinkers even vs bad offenses in east coast day starts, rays offense def falls into that category but it’s a nice super low number! Neither one these pens scare me either! If the starters don’t go deep which i def don’t expect springs would, gallen history in those games says he won’t either, I could see the pens allowing damn near 7!!
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I didn't see Springs last outing vs the Orioles where he struck out 8, threw 83 pitches, and went 5 IP. 19 swing and misses. But his RPM appears to be down around 100RPMs on average on the 4 seamer since his first 2 starts in 2023. His velocity/movement combo is now lining up to be more in line with comparables like Marco Gonzales and Tyler Anderson.

Digging deep here, if you use those comparables, the Orioles also had trouble with Marco Gonzales this year, similar to what Springs did to them. So I'm kinda ruling that out as a revelation that Springs found his stuff. Rays seem to be capping his pitch count to around 80-85, and the Dbacks can likely get him there within 4-5 innings I think. I'm not about to break down the Rays pen here, but if they can snag 2-3 off Springs which I believe is a given, they should be able to find 1 more vs the rest.

1723909196674.png

Dbacks and Marte especially destroy lefties, and Springs is having trouble vs righties to start
1723909334773.png
 
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peelpub94 said:
I didn't see Springs last outing vs the Orioles where he struck out 8, threw 83 pitches, and went 5 IP. 19 swing and misses. But his RPM appears to be down around 100RPMs on average on the 4 seamer since his first 2 starts in 2023. His velocity/movement combo is now lining up to be more in line with comparables like Marco Gonzales and Tyler Anderson.

Digging deep here, if you use those comparables, the Orioles also had trouble with Marco Gonzales this year, similar to what Springs did to them. So I'm kinda ruling that out as a revelation that Springs found his stuff. Rays seem to be capping his pitch count to around 80-85, and the Dbacks can likely get him there within 4-5 innings I think. I'm not about to break down the Rays pen here, but if they can snag 2-3 off Springs which I believe is a given, they should be able to find 1 more vs the rest.

View attachment 87145

Dbacks and Marte especially destroy lefties, and Springs is having trouble vs righties to start
View attachment 87146
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Actually have Tampa FF hoping Spriggs goes that and has somewhat of a lead.
 
peelpub94 said:
I didn't see Springs last outing vs the Orioles where he struck out 8, threw 83 pitches, and went 5 IP. 19 swing and misses. But his RPM appears to be down around 100RPMs on average on the 4 seamer since his first 2 starts in 2023. His velocity/movement combo is now lining up to be more in line with comparables like Marco Gonzales and Tyler Anderson.

Digging deep here, if you use those comparables, the Orioles also had trouble with Marco Gonzales this year, similar to what Springs did to them. So I'm kinda ruling that out as a revelation that Springs found his stuff. Rays seem to be capping his pitch count to around 80-85, and the Dbacks can likely get him there within 4-5 innings I think. I'm not about to break down the Rays pen here, but if they can snag 2-3 off Springs which I believe is a given, they should be able to find 1 more vs the rest.

View attachment 87145

Dbacks and Marte especially destroy lefties, and Springs is having trouble vs righties to start
View attachment 87146
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Good stuff buddy. Like I was saying even if he does start having more vintage starts I don’t think the consistency will be there till next year, imo guys almost always take 2 years to look all the way back and what we on maybe 17-18 months? I’m with you, dunno if I want just snakes or the game total over? Cant decide if my desire to fade Gallen in east coast day starts is greater than how terrible rays offense now is? Lol
 
TheDodgers said:
Actually have Tampa FF hoping Spriggs goes that and has somewhat of a lead.
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Gallen used to struggle in these east coast day games even when he was on top his game. Rather this was the 11-12 start but still think he not likely to be at his best. Rays offense does worry me tho.
 
2daBank said:
Good stuff buddy. Like I was saying even if he does start having more vintage starts I don’t think the consistency will be there till next year, imo guys almost always take 2 years to look all the way back and what we on maybe 17-18 months? I’m with you, dunno if I want just snakes or the game total over? Cant decide if my desire to fade Gallen in east coast day starts is greater than how terrible rays offense now is? Lol
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Tough to bet on Rays offense when they only have 2 guys capable of anything right now. Interested to see the Gallen angle play out.
 
peelpub94 said:
I can't wait to watch the Yankees lose in the first round of the playoffs in October. They have to be the most uninspiring, shitty best team in baseball in recent memory.
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As a cardinals fan I’m super jelly of them lately. At least they be in playoffs, cardinals won’t be within 6 games of a spot where damn near everyone makes it! Just wait till this stretch of games they have coming up next 3 weeks, they be with chisox, rox, and fish as the only teams who don’t have a chance! Lol. The worst part what I’ve unfortunately been right in saying last 2 years, there is not one glimmer of hope going forward, these idiots have somehow destroyed a once model franchise and it only gonna get worse! Clowns are gonna chop payroll, no intention of spending any the money coming off the books! They will site poor ticket sales and how they have butchered tv contracts but that all their fault, guess they the only ones who thought fans keep coming regardless the dog shit product, or anyone would go out of way trying to find the Asshole cable company they cut deal with!! Shit funny tho, somehow they still announce 30-40k at game even tho there might be 15k tops! Yanks are a model of greatness compared to these losers who have ran a proud franchise and fan base Into the ground! I’d take yanks problems in a heartbeat!
 
2daBank said:
As a cardinals fan I’m super jelly of them lately. At least they be in playoffs, cardinals won’t be within 6 games of a spot where damn near everyone makes it! Just wait till this stretch of games they have coming up next 3 weeks, they be with chisox, rox, and fish as the only teams who don’t have a chance! Lol. The worst part what I’ve unfortunately been right in saying last 2 years, there is not one glimmer of hope going forward, these idiots have somehow destroyed a once model franchise and it only gonna get worse! Clowns are gonna chop payroll, no intention of spending any the money coming off the books! They will site poor ticket sales and how they have butchered tv contracts but that all their fault, guess they the only ones who thought fans keep coming regardless the dog shit product, or anyone would go out of way trying to find the Asshole cable company they cut deal with!! Shit funny tho, somehow they still announce 30-40k at game even tho there might be 15k tops! Yanks are a model of greatness compared to these losers who have ran a proud franchise and fan base Into the ground! I’d take yanks problems in a heartbeat!
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Yeah, well said.. Busch is next on my list of ballparks to visit, so hopefully there's still some buzz left once I get there.
 
SF/OAK FF o4.5 -108

Think Birdsong is coming back to reality, got shelled last 2 starts. Rooker is back in the line up. SF likes to hit away from home and should be able to get a few off Bido. Wind blowing out a bit too.
 
Some strange shit going on with the Angels, their line up vs lefties this season is 1/25 o7.5 strike outs. The one time it went over, it was Framber who went 9 innings. Sale's K prop is 7.5 right now, juiced to the under.

Sales has gone over 7.5 13/22 for 59%. And averages 6 innings a start.
 
peelpub94 said:
Gallen drunk again
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Mfer a straight up drunk or just a party time night owl like me! Whatever it is he does not tend to do well in east coast day games in particular. If my memory serves me right it doesn’t tend to matter whether he facing a good lineup or not. I mean I’ve seen him labor thru 5 and not get killed but I can’t recall ever seeing him pitch his best in these games, and I’m talking back when he was pitching like one the best pitchers in baseball not just times like now where he hasn’t really been his best. He got me once or twice til I figured it out!!
 
2daBank said:
Mfer a straight up drunk or just a party time night owl like me! Whatever it is he does not tend to do well in east coast day games in particular. If my memory serves me right it doesn’t tend to matter whether he facing a good lineup or not. I mean I’ve seen him labor thru 5 and not get killed but I can’t recall ever seeing him pitch his best in these games, and I’m talking back when he was pitching like one the best pitchers in baseball not just times like now where he hasn’t really been his best. He got me once or twice til I figured it out!!
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Great memory and pre game call. Marking this one down. Springs looks good, but see what happens 2nd and 3rd time through.
 
Damn, starting to look like springs may be back. 5 k’s 1st time thru lineup and snakes not usually a high strikeout team.
 
That was maybe the worst walk I ever seen taken, forget the fact Marte was down 0-2 and got on base he fouled off a freaking hanging frisbee slider for strike 1. Then fouled back a 89 mph very hittable fastball at top the zone. Springs felt so lucky there was no way he was throwing him another pitch over the plate! Lol. Fuck. I woulda waked him even 0-2 also, why the fuck they have a lefty hitting 2nd? He comes right up and swings at a slider out of zone and I knew that at bat was fucking over. Mfer, they shoulda got me 2 there.
 
2daBank said:
That was maybe the worst walk I ever seen taken, forget the fact Marte was down 0-2 and got on base he fouled off a freaking hanging frisbee slider for strike 1. Then fouled back a 89 mph very hittable fastball at top the zone. Springs felt so lucky there was no way he was throwing him another pitch over the plate! Lol. Fuck. I woulda waked him even 0-2 also, why the fuck they have a lefty hitting 2nd? He comes right up and swings at a slider out of zone and I knew that at bat was fucking over. Mfer, they shoulda got me 2 there.
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Exactly. So annoyed.
 
peelpub94 said:
Exactly. So annoyed.
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I can’t believe he missed that 81 mph get me over frisbee that just freaking sat there. Shoulda been a 3 run bomb! A damn single woulda been plenty for me. As many change ups he been throwing that was like the perfect pitch to crush since he shoulda been bout on that speed anyways.

No clue wtf that lefty doing in the 2 hole? I assume he has good splits vs lhp but still didn’t like it. They move Carroll way down the lineup against lhp but they have only lefty in lineup hitting 2md? Clearly going out their way to have righties in but that asshole hitting behind Marte, springs was so not scared of that dude he basically intentionally walked marte to load bases after 0-2!!

At least I got damn push on 7, gonna be pretty pissed it don’t cash and not feeling like it gonna.
 
2daBank said:
I can’t believe he missed that 81 mph get me over frisbee that just freaking sat there. Shoulda been a 3 run bomb! A damn single woulda been plenty for me. As many change ups he been throwing that was like the perfect pitch to crush since he shoulda been bout on that speed anyways.

No clue wtf that lefty doing in the 2 hole? I assume he has good splits vs lhp but still didn’t like it. They move Carroll way down the lineup against lhp but they have only lefty in lineup hitting 2md? Clearly going out their way to have righties in but that asshole hitting behind Marte, springs was so not scared of that dude he basically intentionally walked marte to load bases after 0-2!!

At least I got damn push on 7, gonna be pretty pissed it don’t cash and not feeling like it gonna.
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McCarthy in the 2 hole been crushing lefties. Sometimes it just doesn't work out. Annoying for sure.
 
peelpub94 said:
Hunter Greene 15 day IL elbow soreness
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Refs doing reds things. Kc whipping that ass too! Pissed I bet Witt jr to hit home run since they offered the +200 boost and he hit double his 1st at bat! No clue if it was off wall or in gap. Just mad it wasn’t a bomb. lol. Happy royals paying out nice this series tho! Still can’t get over the prices in these 1st 2 games!
 
2daBank said:
Refs doing reds things. Kc whipping that ass too! Pissed I bet Witt jr to hit home run since they offered the +200 boost and he hit double his 1st at bat! No clue if it was off wall or in gap. Just mad it wasn’t a bomb. lol. Happy royals paying out nice this series tho! Still can’t get over the prices in these 1st 2 games!
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Lodolo has 5+ ERA at home. Wrong team favored tonight for sure.
 
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