saturday discussion thread

2daBank

2daBank

Voice of Reason
guess VC slipping tonight!!'lol. maybe he can post lines in morning but i think i found a good nrfi play so i went across river and played this evening so i got ahead of any moves, not wanting to play these w bunch of juice and think this was still reasonable

cubs/kc nrfi -130
 
gotta look at rangers w that plus money, just not sure jays worthy of laying this number even tho gausman has looked lot better recently. jays offense just doesn't scare me, not huge Lorenzen fan but think he can put together 5-6 solid innings vs this lineup.
 
think the wrong team favored in balty: kremer hasn't regained his form yet imo, pads are on a nice roll while o's still having a routh time getting out this little slide that started before the break. hotter team, better starter, i made pads small favs so it tough not to play them, only thing is when i went and played the nrfi in kc i also grabbed king ov 5.5 k's, he has really had the punch outs working in day games this year, i thought this woulda been 6.5, wasn't gonna wait cause i liked the -110 price. don't love playing more than 1 play in same game but pads ml tough to pass up, hoping o's take on some money and we get more plus w pads in morning.
 
damn. screwed up betting king k's early, his under is taking money, i don't think im wrong obviously would have preferred best price tko. it gotta just be folks confidence in o's driving his k price down? i dont get it, 5.5 -110 was a solid over number tor him and it now +105, if anything ill bet it again!
 
well shit, king line went against me and now pads taking money so losing the plus money on them, just gonna hope it swings back, it doesn't make a whole hell a lot of sense to me king being bet against but pads being bet on! unless it a play against Kremer? suppose i could see that seeing how he hasnt been very good since coming off IL. but the total has also come off 9 to 8.5, very strange movement when you put it all together, reminds me of the cubs/o's series before break, odd prices and line moves that series as well.
 
2daBank said:
well shit, king line went against me and now pads taking money so losing the plus money on them, just gonna hope it swings back, it doesn't make a whole hell a lot of sense to me king being bet against but pads being bet on! unless it a play against Kremer? suppose i could see that seeing how he hasnt been very good since coming off IL. but the total has also come off 9 to 8.5, very strange movement when you put it all together, reminds me of the cubs/o's series before break, odd prices and line moves that series as well.
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more strangeness in this one. o's still favs, both team totals are 4.5 but o's over is more plus money than pads! but for the 1st 5 o's over 2.5 is less plus than pads at same number. not sure i understand that, id think king has better chance of success than kremer. then why would o's full game number have longer odds when they favs? very strange. in the cubs series the numbers absolutely dictated the plays on cubs or their team total. not as clear in this one but something is off, that means there has to be good value on something just have to figure it out! still playing with the numbers every time i wake up, lol. gonna give it awhile this morning for everyone to wake up and start betting, maybe it be more clear after the masses start putting their bets in!! one thing is for sure, pads are a very streaky team and they are trending good right now! i actually made them small favs here so still hoping line swings back o's way some, i assume o's will still take more bets cause ppl always bet them.
 
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rays get to face another lefty with the same 1.5 ff total hanging there. difference being abbott has been a lot more consistently good than lodolo all season. not like rays crushed lodolo, he was actually pretty dominant so was little fortunate to cash. gotta be careful with rays next few days cause they clearly in full sell mode so another guy could be out their lineup at any time! prob a good enough reason to leave them alone and look elsewhere.
 
i'm not into playing many ml favs but kinda had the feeling seattle might catch a little wave of momentum. then i look at the pitching matchup today and honestly there no way i can lay it with seattle, fedde been way to solid, has the kind of mix and knows how to pitch that gives a crappy offensive team fits as he did in seattle shutting them down for 7 innings. what's worse is while Woo has been very good he is predominantly fastball/sinker and chisox actually have great numbers vs those pitches! the fact woo doesn't walk anyone is a huge help, it ok to give up some hard hit balls long as you not putting guys on base in front of those. the problem is a couple solo home runs could be enough to beat seattle offense! maybe they do get a boost seeing the front office adding pieces but it still doesn't make sense to lay close to -150 w a team the numbers say isn't likely to score much off Fedde.

i was hoping to see seattle ff tt at 2.5 and i woulda been very interested in the under. no such luck as they hung a 1.5, that in itself should be a red flag for seattle here, being the size favs they are yet having the same ff total doesn't lend itself to being a strong fav! dont think i have the stomach to play chisox or even their ff tt over, the numbers kinda say that the way to go but they are on 12 game skid where they not even averaging 2 runs a game! i can't bet into that! lol
 
this day slate a bummer, nothing early and think the pads/o's only afternoon one im playing. everything else be tonight. wonder why they didn't spread out more? i can only watch so much this olympic cycling shit! lol
 
well fuck me, pads have totally flipped to favs. now line is getting close to what i made it which means not really a great play anymore, lol. i sure didn't see that coming. already have the king prop which continues to go the total opposite way you would expect considering line moving to pads you would think king props be going same way? hell if i know wtf they doing with these lines! gonna keep my eye on the team totals and try to find something here.
 
now o's ff total is 1.5 with lot of juice to over. so crazy, they expecting a good start from king which i totally agree with but they obviously don't see the k's same way as me, doesn't make much sense cause k's a big part of kings success, i hardly expect him to pitch 6 innings of 1-2 run ball vs o's by inducing weak contact all game, he gonna strike out 6+ if he pitches that well imo.
 
2daBank said:
you don't like the cubs/kc one? 2 really good pitchers against not that difficult top of orders.
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Was definitely between them and Seattle/Sox. My dumb rational was that Seattle exploded for 8 runs last night and hoping for same. Was thinking ff under in that game. Never fails when I bet Samanga he gets zero run support early on
 
TheDodgers said:
Great call bank on that kc ff. Thx you for that
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we got little lucky, can't believe took the so long to score off hendricks. that at bat by lofton saved the day, i know it was at least 12 pitches might have been closer to 15! even tho he made a out hendricks wasn't same after that, 6 runs w 2 outs in 5th later we actually got a break!!
 
2daBank said:
guess VC slipping tonight!!'lol. maybe he can post lines in morning but i think i found a good nrfi play so i went across river and played this evening so i got ahead of any moves, not wanting to play these w bunch of juice and think this was still reasonable

cubs/kc nrfi -130
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Looks intriguing, never been much of a prop/one inning guy. Feels like being at a roulette table and losing it right away on black (1 inning). HA! This old dog doesnt like learning too many new tricks so i stick with sides and totals mostly.

I'm big on Tigers (and over) again and Padres even with the line moves. Also-Astros, braves, angels, Toronto and Over, Seattle, Cubs, Phils and reds.
Overs in Toronto, Milwaukee and KC look real good today with some favorable umps again. Tigers over as well even with the pitching and low total (Mulchinski tends to favor hitters and road teams but think Skubal gets it done with the over).
 
PirateAlew said:
Looks intriguing, never been much of a prop/one inning guy. Feels like being at a roulette table and losing it right away on black (1 inning). HA! This old dog doesnt like learning too many new tricks so i stick with sides and totals mostly.

I'm big on Tigers (and over) again and Padres even with the line moves. Also-Astros, braves, angels, Toronto and Over, Seattle, Cubs, Phils and reds.
Overs in Toronto, Milwaukee and KC look real good today with some favorable umps again. Tigers over as well even with the pitching and low total (Mulchinski tends to favor hitters and road teams but think Skubal gets it done with the over).
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i was super high on tigers overall lately but greene went on IL yesterday, i'm afraid that really gonna hurt their offense as he easily been best most consistent producer in that lineup all year. just not sure they can afford a hit like that to lineup? i agree pads right side it just getting to point about where i made the line so not a lot of value, i do think they win tho. cubs/kc gonna be a real struggle to score runs for both sides imo, think that ends up being like a 3-1 type game, maybe 4-2. milw another team i didnt like as much as tigers but now id be more leary of cause Yelich just went on il, when mediocre offenses lose a key contrubutor i worry bout their ability to replace him and still score runs.

i just started llokimg at the 1st inning plays, dunno how they go but im always looking for the next thing i can maybe exploit! full games i just dont like all the variables i can't predict, the more i can isolate a lineup vs a certain pitcher the better chance i feel i have. i actually love the way they over so fast! im not here for the action, 15 min and give me my money! lol. i play lot of roulette at casino too, lol, i dont play red/black tho, i have a system somewhat like my goal in baseball i play a group of numbers all together to isolate one side the board!
 
another thing bout pads now, i havnt really paid attention this season but i used to have a big thing about teams starting as dogs and flipping to favs, my general feeling is i trust the oddsmaker initial line more than the money that moved it so i usually prefer to be on the team who opened as favs and flipped to dogs. i remember when i played tons of overnights trying to beat lines i felt happy i had plus money and team was now a fav before 1st pitch then i would inevitably lose a lot of them! lol
 
i do kinda like rangers as dogs, guasman been better lately but think lorenzen be fine vs jays suspect offense. i just havnt been fan this jays team ever and think they been one the most overrated teams for some time now. getting plus money on rangers against them feels like right way to go.
 
at least i did right thing grabbing that no runs 1sr in kc early, had a feeling it would take off, up to -155 now. king has actually went back to the original -110 on his ov 5.5 k's so seems someone figured out it was crazy for him to be plus money.
 
kc not a high strikeout team, last week they have fewest k's in the league but i do think that at least partially thanks to the pitchers they been facing. its very pricey at -170 but surprised they even hang a 4.5 k number on Shoto-son, i was actually hoping to get 4.5 on lugo w all cubs swing and miss but he at 5.5 which pretty high for him as he not a huge strikeout pitcher, he could get to 6 but not sure it more likely than even +110 suggest, he just as likely to go 6-7 innings and only fan 4-5. the Shoto number seems generous even at -170 cause if he on he fanning 5+, kinda like the Taj k prop in toronto sometimes a pitchers stuff outweighs a teams contact rate they achieve facing lot of not as talented pitchers! Shoto def worth putting in a parlay, like that better than playing straight.

had i not jumped on the nrfi last night and was playing now think id do this.

cubs/kc nrfi/shoto ov 4.5 k's parlay +155
 
cutter crawford ov 16.5 outs makes a lot of sense, total scares me a bit but i dont see why he wouldn't be able to navigate his way around this lineup for 5.2 innings? he has went 6 and 7 last 2x facing yanks. as long as that limp dick fuck Cora doesn't yank him early for no reason like he did Bello yesterday, you would think if your pen a little suspect you would want to get as much you can out of starter when he pitching well!
 
later ganes i did

crawford ov 16.5 outs/cubs/kc ff un 4.5

forget exactly what it paid around +200 i think. i like cubs/kc ff un 3.5 at plus money but felt like 4.5 was a slam dunk and liked the idea of pairing crawford with something else.
 
shitty break for mets, senga comes back looking good so they essentially getting a front line starter at trade deadline and now he out for rest the season already when he hurt his calf at end of start.
 
damn, rangers coulda got more out of that inning, nice to take early lead but they kinda squandered chance at bigger inning
 
2daBank said:
cutter crawford ov 16.5 outs makes a lot of sense, total scares me a bit but i dont see why he wouldn't be able to navigate his way around this lineup for 5.2 innings? he has went 6 and 7 last 2x facing yanks. as long as that limp dick fuck Cora doesn't yank him early for no reason like he did Bello yesterday, you would think if your pen a little suspect you would want to get as much you can out of starter when he pitching well!
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Cora used every arm and angle last night. Think he needs 6+ tonight
 
couple k's for king in 1st. i was scared he was gonna end up leaving game after henderson line drive went off his leg, then he started next batter with 3 pitches not even all that close to zone, i was like seriously gonna lose this play cause my dude only faces 2 batters? that has only happened to me one other time, luckily he seems like he fine!
 
dunno wtf happened to lorenzen? mfer got 1st 2 easy enough then gives up hit after hit till he leaves in 1st. all things considered rangers only being down 1 ain't a bad spot. the 5-9 hitters not doing jack shit. cost them a bigger 1st inning and they been blanked every inning them come up following the top order doing damage.
 
fucjing 1st pads strike out comes with man on 3rd 1 out. ain't that a bitch, only swing and miss kremer has gotten
 
dunno how you let that red headed clown turner get hits?? when he the opponents cleanup hitter you shouldn't be giving up all these runs!
 
crowd turning on the young o's. not sure they ready to handle adversity, things have came easy to this squad most the year, now they in hitting slumps and making mistakes in the field!
 
both king k's he got guys to expand the zone on 3-2 counts after they fouled off bunch of pitches, signs of pressing!
 
gausman pitch count is so low thanks to bottom rangers order being super easy outs, if you not gonna get any hits at least take some pitches and make pitcher work, don't roll over on every damn low splitter!
 
guess profar gonna have to get 2 hits to cash, nobody drove him home in 1st and now he gonna be leading off 3rd.
 
king seemingly starting every batter with 2-3 balls, driving his pitch count up early on. throw some 1st pitch strikes already
 
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