• Time to make 1st round picks for the College Football Playoff Contest!

Saturday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
May 15 Sat 2021

4:05 PM
963Oakland AthleticsC. Irvin -L+122O 8½
-105
964Minnesota TwinsJ. Berrios -R+1 Markets-132U 8½
-115
4:10 PM
965Los Angeles AngelsD. Bundy -R-112O 9½
-105
966Boston Red SoxM. Perez -L+1 Markets+102U 9½
-115
4:10 PM
977Chicago CubsT. Williams -R-122O 9
+100
978Detroit TigersJ. Urena -R+1 Markets+112U 9
-120
6:35 PM
951San Francisco GiantsJ. Cueto -R-141O 7½
-105
952Pittsburgh PiratesT. Anderson -L+1 Markets+130U 7½
-115
7:05 PM
967New York YankeesD. German -R-167O 9
-105
968Baltimore OriolesJ. Lopez -R+1 Markets+154U 9
-115
7:10 PM
969Kansas City RoyalsM. Minor -L+170O 8½
-105
970Chicago White SoxC. Rodon -L+1 Markets-185U 8½
-115
7:10 PM
971Texas RangersD. Dunning -R+161O 9
+100
972Houston AstrosL. Garcia -R+1 Markets-175U 9
-120
8:10 PM
957Washington NationalsJ. Ross -R-102O 9
+105
958Arizona DiamondbacksL. Weaver -R+1 Markets-108U 9
-125
8:40 PM
959St. Louis CardinalsA. Wainwright -R+120O 7
-110
960San Diego PadresC. Paddack -R+1 Markets-130U 7
-110
9:10 PM
973Cleveland IndiansT. McKenzie -R-112O 8
-105
974Seattle MarinersJ. Sheffield -L+1 Markets+102U 8
-115
 
i know you've all been waiting for this

May 15ANDERSONT
rossJ
wainwright
irvin
bundy
minor
dunning
mckenzie
nym
URENA
KAY
 
NYM bullpen game doesn't seem like a good thing even though TB can't hit. Castillo returning lengthens that bullpen a bit and they should be far better since they're more accustomed to bullpen games and McClanahan will offer more length than a middle reliever starting for NYM

at least one Anderson side will win today i'm sure of it
 
GWarner27 said:
NYM bullpen game doesn't seem like a good thing even though TB can't hit. Castillo returning lengthens that bullpen a bit and they should be far better since they're more accustomed to bullpen games and McClanahan will offer more length than a middle reliever starting for NYM

at least one Anderson side will win today i'm sure of it
Click to expand...
there's that Tejas humor again.

 
have never liked Berrios and he somehow pitched around a 1:5 K/BB ratio in his last start against the worst offense in the league (DET). He went 5 in a DH @ OAK earlier this season, but i'm also not a fan of the MIN offense and the bullpen has been awful despite showing some signs of improvement lately.

Irvin had a little trouble with the HR in his last start, but won the job in spring training and then has only had a couple blips if that while putting up great numbers with a solid K/BB ratio. OAK pen looks like either Trivino or Diekman closing and they're all rested with only a couple guys working yesterday. Not sure the MIN lineup is better than OAK, think it's worse, and last AB seems to only matter if it's tight late. Not sure that'll even happen
 
Waino off a great start shouldn't say much since it was home vs COL, but nice to see him offer length as the less we have to deal with the StL walk parade out of the bullpen the better. They can get outs though since they are all big arms and are nasty, but walks are killers and they're still not a stable bullpen yet despite all the talent

Waino will use his big curveball as his sinker to induce groundballs, if he doesn't have control of that he's getting rocked but that seems to be his best friend. As a big favorite that's very scary, but as a dog not so much. He was not great, but hung around long enough to get the W after StL came back vs light-hitting NYM, a bit of a concern though he had put up all good outings after getting rocked in his debut.

SD lineup is pretty weak without Tatis, Hosmer. Pham cleaning up last night was pretty poor and though Musgrove had a big lead they nearly blew it. Getting to Melancon last night for a run was a big step, but the goal is to not see him since StL has a lead. Lineup is similar tonight, still very underhanded due to the COVID breakout. 1-3 are tough, but not where they'd normally be and the rest of the lineup is soft.

Don't have one for StL yet, but the bad pen got used heavily last night so it may be a situation where the good arms have to pitch. That's not great for the Cardinals, but good for a single-game bet to hang around a game that might see the replacement-level arms. Good arms are fresh, SD had the day off on Thursday so everyone should be around again though Pagan threw 30 pitches, others should be fine

I guess we wait for StL lineup, DeJong on the IL but besides that not sure who's missing. Hopefully Yadi instead of Knizner who MIL did not respect at all this week
 
forgot to discuss two-pitch Paddack. I'm sure he's trying to diversify better, but that was who he is and i'll believe a change when i see it.

He was on the undisclosed COVID list, i suspect, returned after two weeks off to get 9 outs. If he can't go deep here then Stammen will likely be a top choice to come in long relief as a part of the good pen, but he did pitch yesterday. Paddack's ERA numbers this year don't show any blowups, but the matchups have not been very difficult besides maybe @ ARI and that's not saying a ton besides location due to that lineup.

So StL @ SD is two starters who are not entirely impressive. Waino wants to use the curveball to get groundballs, not sure what Paddack wants but he's the young stud who has not looked like the stud everybody expected after the book on him was widely distributed. Waino is more likely to go deeper, which helps to limit the impact of the bullpen's wildness. That's important, though SD built it's bullpen depth to be able to sustain injuries like Pomeranz going on the IL last night. Melancon is the better closer, but Reyes has been so nasty that his wildness has worked.

Gallegos and Cabrera have big arms, think the pen is deeper on the visiting side and the lack of depth on SD will be tested since Paddack won't go very deep.

Lineups favor StL, as does bullpen depth. Closer and being at home tip the scale toward SD and that's why they're a small favorite. Currently priced 49% to win this matchup, not a ton of value even if you see this as a true coinflip
 
Original lean Nats now down 3-2 and I’ll take my original lean and #9 pen team in era vs #28 even though they get last ab, live Nats +150 ML 5u, live Nats +1.5 -135 5u
 
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