Saturday Discussion Thread

[VirginiaCavs]

May 15 Sat 2021

4:05 PM
963	Oakland AthleticsC. Irvin -L		+122	O 8½ -105
964	Minnesota TwinsJ. Berrios -R+1 Markets		-132	U 8½ -115

4:10 PM
965	Los Angeles AngelsD. Bundy -R		-112	O 9½ -105
966	Boston Red SoxM. Perez -L+1 Markets		+102	U 9½ -115

4:10 PM
977	Chicago CubsT. Williams -R		-122	O 9 +100
978	Detroit TigersJ. Urena -R+1 Markets		+112	U 9 -120

6:35 PM
951	San Francisco GiantsJ. Cueto -R		-141	O 7½ -105
952	Pittsburgh PiratesT. Anderson -L+1 Markets		+130	U 7½ -115

7:05 PM
967	New York YankeesD. German -R		-167	O 9 -105
968	Baltimore OriolesJ. Lopez -R+1 Markets		+154	U 9 -115

7:10 PM
969	Kansas City RoyalsM. Minor -L		+170	O 8½ -105
970	Chicago White SoxC. Rodon -L+1 Markets		-185	U 8½ -115

7:10 PM
971	Texas RangersD. Dunning -R		+161	O 9 +100
972	Houston AstrosL. Garcia -R+1 Markets		-175	U 9 -120

8:10 PM
957	Washington NationalsJ. Ross -R		-102	O 9 +105
958	Arizona DiamondbacksL. Weaver -R+1 Markets		-108	U 9 -125

8:40 PM
959	St. Louis CardinalsA. Wainwright -R		+120	O 7 -110
960	San Diego PadresC. Paddack -R+1 Markets		-130	U 7 -110

9:10 PM
973	Cleveland IndiansT. McKenzie -R		-112	O 8 -105
974	Seattle MarinersJ. Sheffield -L+1 Markets		+102	U 8 -115

 

[Big daddy naught]

CWS vs a lefty

 

[GWarner27]

waino irvin bundy maybe KC TEX but those last two are just based on huge prices

 

[Play2win]

Balt +1.5 RL -110 5u

 

[GWarner27]

i know you've all been waiting for this

May 15	ANDERSONT
	rossJ
	wainwright
	irvin
	bundy
	minor
	dunning
	mckenzie
	nym
	URENA
	KAY

 

[GWarner27]

NYM bullpen game doesn't seem like a good thing even though TB can't hit. Castillo returning lengthens that bullpen a bit and they should be far better since they're more accustomed to bullpen games and McClanahan will offer more length than a middle reliever starting for NYM

at least one Anderson side will win today i'm sure of it

 

[gsro]

Waino and the over in Colorado

 

[gsro]

NYM bullpen game doesn't seem like a good thing even though TB can't hit. Castillo returning lengthens that bullpen a bit and they should be far better since they're more accustomed to bullpen games and McClanahan will offer more length than a middle reliever starting for NYM

at least one Anderson side will win today i'm sure of it

there's that Tejas humor again.

 

[nawlins51]

Angels and Dodgers if I lose the Angels bet today. Thats it

 

[GWarner27]

have never liked Berrios and he somehow pitched around a 1:5 K/BB ratio in his last start against the worst offense in the league (DET). He went 5 in a DH @ OAK earlier this season, but i'm also not a fan of the MIN offense and the bullpen has been awful despite showing some signs of improvement lately.

Irvin had a little trouble with the HR in his last start, but won the job in spring training and then has only had a couple blips if that while putting up great numbers with a solid K/BB ratio. OAK pen looks like either Trivino or Diekman closing and they're all rested with only a couple guys working yesterday. Not sure the MIN lineup is better than OAK, think it's worse, and last AB seems to only matter if it's tight late. Not sure that'll even happen

 

[CPA-hole]

Still no Acuña for ATL.

 

[GWarner27]

Still no Acuña for ATL.

he should be Trout-level value

 

[GWarner27]

Waino off a great start shouldn't say much since it was home vs COL, but nice to see him offer length as the less we have to deal with the StL walk parade out of the bullpen the better. They can get outs though since they are all big arms and are nasty, but walks are killers and they're still not a stable bullpen yet despite all the talent

Waino will use his big curveball as his sinker to induce groundballs, if he doesn't have control of that he's getting rocked but that seems to be his best friend. As a big favorite that's very scary, but as a dog not so much. He was not great, but hung around long enough to get the W after StL came back vs light-hitting NYM, a bit of a concern though he had put up all good outings after getting rocked in his debut.

SD lineup is pretty weak without Tatis, Hosmer. Pham cleaning up last night was pretty poor and though Musgrove had a big lead they nearly blew it. Getting to Melancon last night for a run was a big step, but the goal is to not see him since StL has a lead. Lineup is similar tonight, still very underhanded due to the COVID breakout. 1-3 are tough, but not where they'd normally be and the rest of the lineup is soft.

Don't have one for StL yet, but the bad pen got used heavily last night so it may be a situation where the good arms have to pitch. That's not great for the Cardinals, but good for a single-game bet to hang around a game that might see the replacement-level arms. Good arms are fresh, SD had the day off on Thursday so everyone should be around again though Pagan threw 30 pitches, others should be fine

I guess we wait for StL lineup, DeJong on the IL but besides that not sure who's missing. Hopefully Yadi instead of Knizner who MIL did not respect at all this week

 

[GWarner27]

forgot to discuss two-pitch Paddack. I'm sure he's trying to diversify better, but that was who he is and i'll believe a change when i see it.

He was on the undisclosed COVID list, i suspect, returned after two weeks off to get 9 outs. If he can't go deep here then Stammen will likely be a top choice to come in long relief as a part of the good pen, but he did pitch yesterday. Paddack's ERA numbers this year don't show any blowups, but the matchups have not been very difficult besides maybe @ ARI and that's not saying a ton besides location due to that lineup.

So StL @ SD is two starters who are not entirely impressive. Waino wants to use the curveball to get groundballs, not sure what Paddack wants but he's the young stud who has not looked like the stud everybody expected after the book on him was widely distributed. Waino is more likely to go deeper, which helps to limit the impact of the bullpen's wildness. That's important, though SD built it's bullpen depth to be able to sustain injuries like Pomeranz going on the IL last night. Melancon is the better closer, but Reyes has been so nasty that his wildness has worked.

Gallegos and Cabrera have big arms, think the pen is deeper on the visiting side and the lack of depth on SD will be tested since Paddack won't go very deep.

Lineups favor StL, as does bullpen depth. Closer and being at home tip the scale toward SD and that's why they're a small favorite. Currently priced 49% to win this matchup, not a ton of value even if you see this as a true coinflip

 

[Play2win]

C Blackmon o1.5 h+r+rbi -122 10u

 

[GWarner27]

C Blackmon o1.5 h+r+rbi -122 10u

not in the lineup

 

[Play2win]

Refund all Gucci

 

[Play2win]

Original lean Nats now down 3-2 and I’ll take my original lean and #9 pen team in era vs #28 even though they get last ab, live Nats +150 ML 5u, live Nats +1.5 -135 5u

 

[Play2win]

Live Cle at Sea u6.5 +115 10u