Saturday 03/22/14 NBA discussion thread

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divol

The Spurs can suck my manhood
[TABLE="class: linesTbl, width: 934"]
<tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px;">[TR="class: linesHeader"]
[TD="colspan: 8"][h=4]NBA BASKETBALL BASKETBALL - SAT 3/22[/h][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesColumns"]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, colspan: 4, align: center"]GAME[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]HANDICAP[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MONEY LINE[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]TOTAL POINTS[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MORE[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Sat 3/22[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]501[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Portland Trail Blazers [/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-1 2.010[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.962[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 203 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]04:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]502[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Charlotte Bobcats[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+1 1.901[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.943[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 203 1.909[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Sat 3/22[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]503[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Houston Rockets[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-8 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 1.274[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 204 1.926[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]04:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]504[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Cleveland Cavaliers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+8 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 4.180[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 204 1.980[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Sat 3/22[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]505[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Indiana Pacers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+2.5 1.917[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 2.200[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 180.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]05:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]506[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Memphis Grizzlies[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-2.5 1.990[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.758[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 180.5 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Sat 3/22[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]507[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Miami Heat[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-5.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 1.465[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 199 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]05:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]508[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]New Orleans Pelicans[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+5.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 2.930[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 199 1.909[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Sat 3/22[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]509[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Philadelphia 76ers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+16.5 1.926[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 19.520[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 193 1.943[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]05:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]510[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Chicago Bulls[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-16.5 1.980[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.018[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 193 1.962[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Sat 3/22[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]511[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Orlando Magic[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+5 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 2.710[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 197.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]06:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]512[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Utah Jazz[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-5 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 1.526[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 197.5 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Sat 3/22[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]513[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Detroit Pistons[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+13 1.971[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 10.250[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 216.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]07:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]514[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Los Angeles Clippers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-13 1.935[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.077[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 216.5 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Sat 3/22[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]515[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]San Antonio Spurs[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+2 2.020[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 2.180[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 207 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]07:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]516[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Golden State Warriors[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-2 1.885[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 1.769[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 207 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
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Last edited:
It will be Brian Shaw's birthday. Too bad Denver aren't playing.

Btw, on Sunday it's birthday for Kidd and Hayward.
 
Orlando is 2-17-1 ATS their L20 games as a road dog (2-3-1 ATS L6).

Orlando is also 25-5 to Under on the road when they don't concede 120+ pts (6-0 to Over when they do).

-----

Utah is 7-1 SU/ATS their L8 meetings with Orlando (6-0/5-1 L6).

Utah as an opening line Fav this season...
- is 5-0 ATS when they've conceded 99 pts or less
- is 0-4 ATS when they've conceded 100+ pts
 
Reposting this (as it initially appeared) since it panned out correctly on Thursday -
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'd expect based on the numbers a swing towards Overs for GS before the reg. season ends.

They're currently on a 19-6 Under run (76%), and when I notice any kind of total or ATS run north of 70% for a streak of games north than 20 (1/4+ of a reg. season's worth), I'm always suspicious of continuing to bet into the dominant result because of the expectation of a regression. Now what can/does offset that pov is in the situation where prior to such a results run the opposite result (to the present dominantn result) was itself so heavy that the current run can itself be viewed as a regression/righting of the ship (ie, a team on a 15-5 ATS run was prior to that run 15-30 ATS, meaning their overall mark would be 30-35: because they'd still be down ATS, the basis is their for their current positive run to keep growing since in doing so it'd still be making up ground on their still negative overall mark). But GS was 25-19 to Under (at 56.8%, a healthy enough rate) before their present strong Under run, so what's happened recently can in no way be viewed as itself a regression.

Looking at their coming (home) opponents -

MIL is 16-8 Over L24, 17-9 Over L26 away .... Over
SAS is 14-6 Over L20, 10-2 Over L12 away ...
MEM is 10-5 Over L15 (4-4 L8 away) .............
NYK is 22-9 Over L31, 15-6 Over L21 away ...

All have healthy Over rates going back a sizable amount of games. The opponents are on tap to underpin any such regression.
Click to expand...
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Orlando is 2-17-1 ATS their L20 games as a road dog (2-3-1 ATS L6).

Orlando is also 25-5 to Under on the road when they don't concede 120+ pts (6-0 to Over when they do).

-----

Utah is 7-1 SU/ATS their L8 meetings with Orlando (6-0/5-1 L6).

Utah as an opening line Fav this season...
- is 5-0 ATS when they've conceded 99 pts or less
- is 0-4 ATS when they've conceded 100+ pts
Click to expand...


BC, since Orlando has been mentioned, I was hoping to run some statistics by you and ask you what (if any) weight could be assigned to them: on Tuesday Orlando enters the BC danger-zone, coming back from a 4 game trip to play POR, then playing CHA 3 days after that. The stats I am looking at (hopefully they are right) are saying that over the past 12 years, Orlando has played in 34 pairs of BC danger-zone type games, and has only double-covered (won ATS in both of the pair of games) 3 times out of the 34 (about 9%). The last time Orlando covered the spread in both of the pair of games was in December of 2008. That includes 3 pairs of games played so far this season.

How much do you think I should rely on those stats going forward into Tuesday? Is 34 pairs too small of a sample? Does the long time span add any weight to those stats?
 
I like Indy and GS as well. The problem with the Pacers that they amazingly bad playing B2B on the road.
But Gasol's absence is huge in my opinion - especially on defense.
 
divol said:
I like Indy and GS as well. The problem with the Pacers that they amazingly bad playing B2B on the road.
But Gasol's absence is huge in my opinion - especially on defense.
Click to expand...

yep, feel much more confident on GS-2 than IND+2,5. But hope and think Indiana's downswing like miami's one is behind them and that they will find again their pace of the beginning of the season. This game is a pick'em for me. So either MEM moneyline or Indy with the points.
 
pip2 said:
BC, since Orlando has been mentioned, I was hoping to run some statistics by you and ask you what (if any) weight could be assigned to them: on Tuesday Orlando enters the BC danger-zone, coming back from a 4 game trip to play POR, then playing CHA 3 days after that. The stats I am looking at (hopefully they are right) are saying that over the past 12 years, Orlando has played in 34 pairs of BC danger-zone type games, and has only double-covered (won ATS in both of the pair of games) 3 times out of the 34 (about 9%). The last time Orlando covered the spread in both of the pair of games was in December of 2008. That includes 3 pairs of games played so far this season.

How much do you think I should rely on those stats going forward into Tuesday? Is 34 pairs too small of a sample? Does the long time span add any weight to those stats?
Click to expand...

pip - the obv. problem with going back in time to a significant degree is dealing with roster changes/different teams. I think 12 years is a bit too far back. Depending on the longevity of the present coach & core roster of any team, I think one can go back as much as 4-5 possibly even 6 seasons in some cases, but beyond that - not so much. I think it's enough you refer to the fact they've failed 3 times out of 3 this season. With less than a month of the reg. season left, I'd imagine they're picking the spots in which they choose to pour their greatest energies. They've also got the 3rd worst record in the NBA, with a few teams (Uth, Lal, Bos) close to matching their record; I'd imagine there's lottery implications involved with their maintaining their NBA wide 3rd worse w/l mark, so their ongoing motivation to win extensively is questionable.

I'd cap those 2 games individually (I see vs. Port. then Char.), paying attention to where their opponents are at as well as pay attention to how the Magic finished their trip (vs. Uth & Lal). If they were off 2 complete hammerings, I'd certainly be less inclined to think they wouldn't go close to winning at least 1 of their first 2 spreads on that coming homestand. Also, they've only once won 3 straight ATS for over 4 months (thou that instance was 3 straight home games, here they have 4 straight coming up). Ideally you'd like to see them win ATS at least vs. the Lakers, if not also in Utah. Entering those 2 home games off an 0-4 ATS trip (currently 0-2) would make your intention a lot less attractive than if they were off 1 or 2 ATS wins (they are 6-3 ATS their L9 a home). At the least, wait until their trip is done before cementing your intentions.
 
Will definitely take your advice BC. Going back 5 years, Orlando has had 16 pairs of danger-zone games, and have not double-covered any of them. But as you say, they are so crappy this year and doing so bad lately, they might get desperate and the books might also end up bending so far over backwards to give them enough points that they might cover. I will play it by ear as you have suggested.
 
Took only GSW in the end.

Leaning Charlotte and Indiana, but I know that if the plays will lose, I will kick myself for ignoring the obvious warning signs.
 
nbafan88 said:
What a character.


@nba_fan88: Dennis Rodman! http://t.co/JJ2qxd3gGN
Click to expand...
Best time in his life. Working for Cuban. Did not last because of Stern
Did I mention why I played Denver yesterday
Today, 05:01 PM #1
JMize
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[h=2]NBA Side Alert!!![/h] Shocked how Denver got to within 3 then imploded...these are now 14-2 now

Indiana +2
Spurs +2.5

J Mize---Indiana and the Spurs---
 
This is bizarre. I've never had reason to question blankets scoreboard, but I'm watching the memphis game, and at 4:56 left in the 1st with Memphis up 15-9, I refreshed blankets scoreboard (to see other scores) and it showed this -

View attachment 35231

It then showed Indy leading 12-8 @5:37: since Memphis did lead 13-6 (before they led 15-9), it can't be a case of them having mistakenly simply reversed the teams scores by accident.
 
Bulls are just a brutal offensive team. Philly 0-100 from downtown, any half decent offense would be up 25+...
 
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