sAT 8/23 nflx, THE DARKER SIDE OF MAN

[tee*dub]

2007 posted on ctg:

ATS 28-19 , +26100
ML dogs 4-2, +14400
Teasers 2-7, -6800
ML favs 1-1, +300
Totals 5-8,-4450
HT wager 16-7, +18,500
Props 0-1, , -1600

2007 Overall NFL 56-45, +46,350

2008, 0-0, $0


__________________________________________________

Whats up fellas. The NFL is here! Been hanging out over in the MLB forum for a few weeks, passing time. Pretty good run over there but this is my true love. Glad to be back. To say the least, 2007 was a good year for me. Looking to get off to a good start in 2008.

Can't think of anything more dark than betting NFLX. I am often tempted but always resist with rare exception and always in week 3.. Couldn't resist:

Rams 1H -.5, +100; 4 units (2000-2000) WIN

Several things put me on this. I'll add color this afternoon..

GL in 2008 :cheers:

 

[Blue_Chip]

The dark side of man yesterday was a cashed bet on StL. Ride or collide...

:7_17_4::36_7_1:

StL Pk 1H will be my first play on my new Bookmaker acct

 

[tee*dub]

Doesn't look like there is a lot of discussion going on over here yet so I'll just give you the cliff notes version on the play:

I want to point out up front that I think the Rams will be a bad team this year and I am considering a hefty under season wins total play on them, however I think tonight's 1H lays out nicely, situationally:

• Unless Linehan changes his stance from previous years, this is the last pre-season game for all the starters.
• Defensively the Rams are making pretty good strides, including last week when they kept the Chargers offense out of the end zone and limited them to 203 yards of total offense.
• Troy Smith starts at QB tonight instead of Kyle Boller. Also missing for Ravens is McGahee and tight end Todd Heap.
• Rams offense-- Linehan has said all week that it is very important for his first team offense to get in the endzone this week. New offensive coordinator, Al Saunders, will have his full passing offense tonight for the first time (although Orlando Pace is questionable)..Torry Holt who didn't play in Game 2 with tighness in his back will play tonight. More important, Donnie Avery, first wide rec. taken in draft and maybe the fastest player in the NFL makes his exibition debut tonight.
• Steven Jackson, although in camp now will not play tonight.
• Marc Bulger has struggled a bit in limited action although two of his three INTs were tipped passes. Al Sauders, new O-coordinater has made numberous comments all week that he wants to get Bulger many reps tonight with his first team receivers and "show some success going into the season"..

Side note and I think in the preseason you have to look at these issues. The Rams are having troubles selling tickets and this primetime game could go a long ways towards building some confidence in ticket buyers.. IMO the Rams will try to light things up long after the Ravens have shut down and esp in the 1st half.. As linehan said in press conference. "There is alot going on in Downtown Stl tonight, (Cardinals home game, Bruce Springsteen concert at Scottrade Center) and we plan to give fans a good show here." that is a paraphrase but clearly the Rams will use all the resources to make sure it is a positive game for the fans.. At least in the first Half..

Thats my bet... Gl all..

 

[STEED]

:Cheers:

GL w/ it

 

[Blue_Chip]

I know you live in south Fla nowadays, but are you a StL native or did you just choose that city's sports teams to follow closely?

 

[Blue_Chip]

Side note: I think Bulger might put up mad stats this season under Saunders. His QB's in KC avg 3800yds/yr. I drafted Holt in one of my fantasy leagues because he seems to be the main beneficiary (along with Bulger) of this new pass heavy offense Saunders is bringing to town. Bennett needs to prove he is a decent WR2.

 

[tee*dub]

Side note: I think Bulger might put up mad stats this season under Saunders. His QB's in KC avg 3800yds/yr. I drafted Holt in one of my fantasy leagues because he seems to be the main beneficiary (along with Bulger) of this new pass heavy offense Saunders is bringing to town. Bennett needs to prove he is a decent WR2.

Would be worried about Holt's body breaking down on him.. Take a look at Avery.. Bulger said recently its like throwing to Usain Bolt.

 

[tee*dub]

I know you live in south Fla nowadays, but are you a StL native or did you just choose that city's sports teams to follow closely?

Get to STL often, some family there.. I have a residence there also.. Most of my business is in South Florida. I travel heavily in my business. Bit of a nomad.

I follow a few teams deeply for betting purposes. Obviously Cardinals and the NL Central is my bread and butter. In the NFL I follow MInnesota closely , Ariz, Miami, St louis and to a lesser extent the NY teams.. I read everything on them and follow daily blogs from beat writers etc. I find it is a big edge having in depth local knowledge and now a days you don't have to be a local to get it..

 

[SportsNut]

Like the mentatlity Tee . Third preseason game for most and the most important ones for each teams vets usually the starters. The game loses its exhibition feel for at least a half ....

Probably tailing you on this since it makes alot of sense but also looking to play the Lion 1st H . There defense has played well(solid vs the run against NYG) and Quinn vs the 1st teamers ...:cheers:

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Tee I found the following info on Baltimore--

ON THE BUBBLE: Running back Cory Ross. The former undrafted rookie has had a quiet preseason, gaining 16 yards on five carries.

INJURY REPORT: Starters not expected to play are running back Willis McGahee (knee), tight end Todd Heap (calf), tackle Jared Gaither (ankle), defensive tackle Kelly Gregg (knee), cornerback Chris McAlister (knee) and safety Ed Reed (shoulder).


So Ed REED and Chris Mcallister being out helps for sure and no HEAP is big also because he can catch the wild throws by SMITH--

Smith has yet to consistently do that in two preseason games. His eight drives have resulted in one touchdown, two field goals, four punts and one interception.

He has led just one drive of more than 30 yards, and that one was carried by rookie running back Ray Rice.


The biggest concern with Smith has been his accuracy.

He has completed eight of 17 passes, missing wildly on some throws. He has yet to complete back-to-back passes in a drive this preseason.
In his limited play this preseason, Smith has been a disappointment, completing 47.1percent of his passes and compiling a 41.1 rating, both of which are lows among Ravens quarterbacks.


SMITH has been pretty bad so far, so as long as Rams dont screw themselves with turnovers I see them wining the half. I don't like the RAMS teams chances vs good attacking teams but at least REED and Mccalister are out, so they will have backups in the secondary basically-

Add in no HEAP to catch wild throws by SMITH, and no MCGAHEE< but RICE is pretty good so we just need to shut him down and SMITH's running and he will not do much.

THis is more of a game that should play out as you predicted it as long as the RAMS dont turn the ball over and also protect BULGER in the first half-

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

No ed REED is huge because a QB always has to locate that guy on Defense--

Now you have Bulger able to focus more on the one on one matchups and not worry about REED on every single play--

ALso SMITH has the ability to overachieve at home, I dont think he will overachieve on the road in this game--

THe only way Rams dont cover this is if their O is not sharp and not scoring, as long as they move the ball this is theirs to take.

I like it buddy, Ravens are basically trying to evaluate SMITH to see if he is starting material. That means they may ask him to throw quite a bit. I doubt it the Ravens care much about the result, while it appears that the RAMS are trying to score touchdowns and get the win and get confidence.

I guess with no REED and Mcallister and no HEAP and Demetrius Williams and Mcgahee if you asked me who I would bet if Baltimore went to St Louis in a Pre season game and st louis is laying 0.5 half point I would take BULGER over SMITH any day of the week. Adding in the fact that Holt is back and this new rookie Donnie Bolt from Houston he is lightning.

BULGER over SMITH= A must play in my eyes--

Another factor cleary TEE is that basically if this was regular season game and Heap and Mcahee and Reed and Mcalister were playing I think Baltimore would be the play at this line or have a good chance at winning the game--

BUt in these circumstances as you pointed out, it is perfect as Rams are basically gonna play this like a regular season game while the RAVENS aren't. Motivation wise and in depth of players RAMS have it, this is a classic example of a team like the RAMS wanting to beat a team good before the season starts, and I think the Ravens should not be in regular season RAVEN mode where Ray lewis goes nuts and crazy.

Tee this is situational capping at its best my friend--

Lets bring this result home

 

[tee*dub]

Excellent info Sammy.. I miss the NFL forum. Thanks for the information on Ravens.. Lots of angles on this one. I like them all.

(Note to those new to CTG-- this NFL forum has many talented cappers--if you are new to the site, you will have some fun with the information that is shared. If you are a lurker and haven't joined yet, please join and contribute-- especially if you have local knowledge on a particular team.)

I expect Rams defense to give Troy Smith trouble and Offense scores twice minimum in first half..

And yes if I got this line in week one, I would load the Ravens.. Week 3 in preseason, with all the information we have this is an obvious Ram play IMO.. Probably the only preseason game I will play.

:cheers:

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Tee I was thinking likewise the over under is 17 for the first half---

I have this feeling that we also score twice with the RAMS, giving Balty one score and we should take this 10-7 at worst, if not 10-3 or 14-3 or 14-7---

Basically 2 scores to 1 score--


I think Troy can turn the ball over, from all accounts he cannot throw very well at all, and vs a quick defense like the Rams I expect them to stop the run and make him beat them, which I dont think he can. Reminds me of when he played Florida in the National championship game, he really was not athletic enough to throw and I dont see him having the arm or mechanics to throw vs a NFL defense on the road-- He has not completed back to back passes yet, this is his chance to win the starting job but still the guy is not great and the Balty D can be beat now especially in pre season without their best player REED and no Mccalister and Gregg inside.

No HEAP IMO is very huge for the first half, because SMITH is not accurate so if he is pressured and throws it up for grabs I dont fear Mason or CLayton, because they are not that tall and will not be in a position to make those type of plays--

I could totally see SMITH being pressured and throwing it up for grabs for HEAP who would win the jump ball for a big play in the 1st half. A inaccurate QB's best friend is a big tight end with good hands, in other words the tight end would bail SMITH out. WIth no HEAP that takes at least one huge jump ball win that HEAP would most likely have made in a crucial situation in the 1st half--

NOt to mention it takes a reliable guaranteed guy that can move the chains and also go deep--

All we can do is do the research and let the players bring it home. I like your style TEE, betting vs weaker teams with stronger teams in situational spots, we have all the advantages and are going vs a guy who is a backup and likely will be out of the league in a few years.

 

[tee*dub]

Tee this is situational capping at its best my friend--

Lets bring this result home

:36_7_1::cheers:

 

[tee*dub]

Tee I was thinking likewise the over under is 17 for the first half---

I have this feeling that we also score twice with the RAMS, giving Balty one score and we should take this 10-7 at worst, if not 10-3 or 14-3 or 14-7---

Basically 2 scores to 1 score--


I think Troy can turn the ball over, from all accounts he cannot throw very well at all, and vs a quick defense like the Rams I expect them to stop the run and make him beat them, which I dont think he can. Reminds me of when he played Florida in the National championship game, he really was not athletic enough to throw and I dont see him having the arm or mechanics to throw vs a NFL defense on the road-- He has not completed back to back passes yet, this is his chance to win the starting job but still the guy is not great and the Balty D can be beat now especially in pre season without their best player REED and no Mccalister and Gregg inside.

Would lean it bro but I am going to keep this one simple.. Would worry about Ravens not scoring at all.. Rams defense looks pretty good and they will give Smith some looks he is not ready for..:cheers:

 

[tee*dub]

wow, troy smith unavailable tonight.. Not sure that is a good thing or bad thing.:4_12_12:

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Yah FLACCO is throwing for some reason, but SMITH threw one pass it said? Rams need to drive this ball and score a Td for the fans finally.

 

[Mags]

PM'd ya back bro, GL with the play!

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Tee now that FAGGO is starting for RAVENS who is playing in the 2nd half, does he get the whole game cause BOLLER is out and if SMITH is out there is no one else?

Also is Trent GREEN the backup for Rams or GRADKOWSKI, and when are they expected to get in this game--

Reason is I was looking at a possible 2nd half play here?

 

[Mags]

Tee now that FAGGO is starting for RAVENS who is playing in the 2nd half, does he get the whole game cause BOLLER is out and if SMITH is out there is no one else?

Also is Trent GREEN the backup for Rams or GRADKOWSKI, and when are they expected to get in this game--

Reason is I was looking at a possible 2nd half play here?

Green is the b/u and actually Brock Berlin (old Miami U QB) has been playing more than Gradkowski to this point.

 

[tee*dub]

Al Sauders, new O-coordinater has made numberous comments all week that he wants to get Bulger many reps tonight with his first team receivers and "show some success going into the season"..
.

Rams starting offense played the entire 1st H against many Ravens reserves..Nailed that bitch. Situational.:smiley_acbe:

money;:hammer:

Good start to 2008 season:cheers:

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Good work BUDDY, you hit this one perfectly again!

Any thoughts on this 2nd half here?

I don't know if the Ravens generate much offense, can't see them scoring more than once. I think the RAMS will try and score at least for one more quarter I am thinking?

 

[tee*dub]

Tee now that FAGGO is starting for RAVENS who is playing in the 2nd half, does he get the whole game cause BOLLER is out and if SMITH is out there is no one else?

Also is Trent GREEN the backup for Rams or GRADKOWSKI, and when are they expected to get in this game--

Reason is I was looking at a possible 2nd half play here?

Nah, may be, may not.. GL, but from here on out its purely gambling IMO. Don't see any sure angles in 2H.. Nice hit.:smiley_acbe:

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

True good idea, no need to press now- I need to have the TEE discipline-

Maybe one day I can be a Junior Tee assistant researcher!

 

[SportsNut]

True good idea, no need to press now- I need to have the TEE discipline-

Maybe one day I can be a Junior Tee assistant researcher!

I'd like his bankroll and discipline . Even his confidence ....Nice work ...

Its 1 preseason day and I made 22 plays !!!! Which I aint complaining since looks like unless I get a miracle Oak -3 cover (so forced this play) I will finish 16-6 ...Tee probably did better on 1-0 ...:36_11_6:With 1/25 the stress

 

[Blue_Chip]

Typical

:hammer:

 

[tee*dub]

I'd like his bankroll and discipline . Even his confidence ....Nice work ...

Its 1 preseason day and I made 22 plays !!!! Which I aint complaining since looks like unless I get a miracle Oak -3 cover (so forced this play) I will finish 16-6 ...Tee probably did better on 1-0 ...:36_11_6:With 1/25 the stress

Congrats on the great day Nut.. 22 plays on one preseason day:new_shocked:. I probably won't get my 22nd play until week 8:36_11_6:.. Been following you a few years now. The "bondtrader" style has been good to you over the years, and several others. Asset allocation works bro, keep it up..

:cheers:

 

[ljc_267]

nice work Tee