Saratoga entire meet betting thread

[BringInTheLefty]

Pretty sure and I think any scratch is replaced with the post time favorite.

it became an ALL race

 

[BringInTheLefty]

recap:




race 2:
finished 4th
bet: $230
collected: $0



race 6:
best bet ran 3rd
tried to wire ‘em but came up short
bet: $620
collected: $0




race 10:
no bets due to off the grass
any pick of mine if carded for the grass & rain pops up if they are taken off the turf they are automatic no bets



total bet: $850
collected: $0




through 11 days:
+$6,170
best bets: 11-6-1-1
best bet winning prices:
$12.60
$9.50
$9.30
$9.20
$9.00
$5.60



until tomorrow y’all…

 

[Timh]

Nice work for the meet Lefty, BOL tomorrow and the rest of the meet.

 

[BringInTheLefty]

‘Toga Day 12:
through 11 days:
+$6,170
best bets: 11-6-1-1
best bet winning prices:
$12.60
$9.50
$9.30
$9.20
$9.00
$5.60







waited to see track update
race 2 was taken off the grass
here we go let’s have ourselves a day






race 4:
10-Tis A Pity $80W
$20 exacta: 10/1,4,6
$10 exacta: 1,4,6/10
$10 trifecta: 10/1,4,6/1,4,6,11,12
$5 trifecta: 1,10/1,4,6,10/1,4,6,11,12








race 8:
1-Lyrical Poet $80W
$30 exacta: 1/5,6,10
$15 exacta: 5,6,10/1
$20DD: 1/1,3,5
$20PK3:
8th: 1
9th: 1,3,5
10th: 9
($60)




$3PK3:
8th: 1,5,10
9th: 1,3,5
10th: 4,6,9,10
($108)







race 10:
9-In My Wake $200W **best bet**
$40 exacta: 9/4,6,10
$20 exacta: 4,6,10/9
$10 exacta box: 4,6,9,10 ($120)
$10 trifecta: 9/4,6,10/3,4,6,7,10
$5 trifecta: 4,6,10/9/3,4,6,7,10

Clement 26% winners with 2nd grass race
first time out won with plenty left for today
will be 5/1 because McCarthy riding & he rode first time out so knows the horse

 

[KJ]

Lefty do you know for certain r10 will be on the turf? Never really sure if they state it before racing starts or if it's more wait and see. Concern is if there's any question it seems like the final race is the quickest to go.

 

[BringInTheLefty]

Lefty do you know for certain r10 will be on the turf? Never really sure if they state it before racing starts or if it's more wait and see. Concern is if there's any question it seems like the final race is the quickest to go.

YES only race 2 off today and no rain in the forecast

 

[BringInTheLefty]

‘Toga Day 12:
through 11 days:
+$6,170
best bets: 11-6-1-1
best bet winning prices:
$12.60
$9.50
$9.30
$9.20
$9.00
$5.60







a few changes after scratches
here we go let’s have ourselves a day






race 4:
10-Tis A Pity $80W
$20 exacta: 10/1,4,6
$10 exacta: 1,4,6/10
$10 trifecta: 10/1,4,6/1,4,6,11,12
$5 trifecta: 1,10/1,4,6,10/1,4,6,11,12








race 8:
1-Lyrical Poet $80W
$30 exacta: 1/5,6,11
$15 exacta: 5,6,11/1
$20DD: 1/1,3,5
$20PK3:
8th: 1
9th: 3,4,5
10th: 9
($60)




$3PK3:
8th: 1,5,11
9th: 3,4,5
10th: 4,6,9,10
($108)







race 10:
9-In My Wake $200W **best bet**
$40 exacta: 9/4,6,10
$20 exacta: 4,6,10/9
$10 exacta box: 4,6,9,10 ($120)
$10 trifecta: 9/4,6,10/3,4,6,7,10
$5 trifecta: 4,6,10/9/3,4,6,7,10

Clement 26% winners with 2nd grass race
first time out won with plenty left for today
will be 5/1 because McCarthy riding & he rode first time out so knows the horse

 

[Inspekdah]

Damn you had that race nailed. If the 12 is a head less you probably crushed it for $20k

 

[BringInTheLefty]

Damn you had that race nailed. If the 12 is a head less you probably crushed it for $20k

yeah,shit
would have needed a wheelbarrow to carry home the cash
so damn close

 

[KJ]

Rosario is a turf sprint God. He gets the game.

 

[BringInTheLefty]

Rosario is a turf sprint God. He gets the game.

my saver pk3 I left the 6 off
most likely will cost me from cashing

 

[BringInTheLefty]

recap:





race 4:
finished 2nd
so darn close to breaking the bank
the 1 ran huge at 41/1
bet: $350
collected: $0





race 8:
finished 4th
bet: $443
collected: $0





race 10:
finished 8th
bet: $680
collected: $0





total bet: $1,473
collected: $0





through 12 days:
+$4,697
best bets: 12-6-1-1
best bet winning prices:
$12.60
$9.50
$9.30
$9.20
$9.00
$5.60




really like 3 races tomorrow

 

[BringInTheLefty]

‘Toga Day 13:
+$4,697
best bets: 12-6-1-1
best bet winning prices:
$12.60
$9.50
$9.30
$9.20
$9.00
$5.60








race 1:
1-America’s Guest $60W
$20 exacta: 1/4,6,7,8
$10 exacta: 4,6,7,8/1
$10 exacta box: 1-7-8
$3 triple: 1,8/1,4,6,7,8/1,4,5,6,7,8,10
($96)









race 6:
5-Blissful $200W **best bet**
$40 exacta: 5/3,6
$20 exacta: 5/1
$20 exacta: 3,6/5
$10 triple: 5/3,6/1,2,3,6,9
$5 triple: 3,6/5/1,2,3,6,9
$4 triple: 1,5/1,5/2,3,6,9
$40DD: 5/1,2,5
$20PK3:
6th: 5
7th: 1,2,5
8th: 4







race 10:
5-Shawdyshawdyshawdy $60W
$20 exacta: 5/1,10,12
$10 exacta: 1,10,12/5
$4 triple: 1,5/1,5,10,12/1,3,5,7,10,12





let’s have ourselves a day…

 

[Brewers888]

‘Toga Day 13:
+$4,697
best bets: 12-6-1-1
best bet winning prices:
$12.60
$9.50
$9.30
$9.20
$9.00
$5.60








race 1:
1-America’s Guest $60W
$20 exacta: 1/4,6,7,8
$10 exacta: 4,6,7,8/1
$10 exacta box: 1-7-8
$3 triple: 1,8/1,4,6,7,8/1,4,5,6,7,8,10
($96)









race 6:
5-Blissful $200W **best bet**
$40 exacta: 5/3,6
$20 exacta: 5/1
$20 exacta: 3,6/5
$10 triple: 5/3,6/1,2,3,6,9
$5 triple: 3,6/5/1,2,3,6,9
$4 triple: 1,5/1,5/2,3,6,9
$40DD: 5/1,2,5
$20PK3:
6th: 5
7th: 1,2,5
8th: 4







race 10:
5-Shawdyshawdyshawdy $60W
$20 exacta: 5/1,10,12
$10 exacta: 1,10,12/5
$4 triple: 1,5/1,5,10,12/1,3,5,7,10,12





let’s have ourselves a day…

Sorry to correct you but the first bet is race 2.

 

[BringInTheLefty]

Sorry to correct you but the first bet is race 2.

you’re 100% correct
fat finger typo

 

[BringInTheLefty]

Toga Day 13:
+$4,697
best bets: 12-6-1-1
best bet winning prices:
$12.60
$9.50
$9.30
$9.20
$9.00
$5.60








race 2:
1-America’s Guest $60W
$20 exacta: 1/4,6,7,8
$10 exacta: 4,6,7,8/1
$10 exacta box: 1-7-8
$3 triple: 1,8/1,4,6,7,8/1,4,5,6,7,8,10
($96)









race 6:
5-Blissful $200W **best bet**
$40 exacta: 5/3,6
$20 exacta: 5/1
$20 exacta: 3,6/5
$10 triple: 5/3,6/1,2,3,6,9
$5 triple: 3,6/5/1,2,3,6,9
$4 triple: 1,5/1,5/2,3,6,9
$40DD: 5/1,2,5
$20PK3:
6th: 5
7th: 1,2,5
8th: 4







race 10:
5-Shawdyshawdyshawdy $60W
$20 exacta: 5/1,10,12
$10 exacta: 1,10,12/5
saver: $20 exacta box: 1,5,10,12
($240)
$4 triple: 1,5/1,5,10,12/1,3,5,7,10,12





let’s have ourselves a day…

 

[BringInTheLefty]

recap:

as hot as I was last week I’m now cold
a nose yesterday would have broke the bank
tomorrow a new day and I’ll be firing away





race 2:
ran 5th
bet: $336
collected: $0






race 6:
best bet ran 7th
bet: $672
collected: $0





race 10:
ran third
bet: $486
collected: $0




total bet: $1,494
collected: $0









+$3,203
best bets: 13-6-1-1
best bet winning prices:
$12.60
$9.50
$9.30
$9.20
$9.00
$5.60

 

[BringInTheLefty]

Spa Day 14:
+$3,203
best bets: 13-6-1-1
best bet winning prices:
$12.60
$9.50
$9.30
$9.20
$9.00
$5.60







race 2:
7-Freydis the Red $60W
$20 exacta: 7/1,4,8
$10 exacta: 1,4,8/7
$10 exacta box: 1,4,7,8
($120)







race 5:
7-Coastana $80W
$30 exacta: 7/1,5,6,9
$15 exacta: 1,5,6,9/7
$5 trifecta: 7/1,5,6,9/1,5,6,9
$3 trifecta: 7,9/1,5,6,7,9/1,5,6,9







race 7:
1-Hard Love $200W **best bet**
$60 exacta: 1/5,10
$20 exacta: 5,10/1
$10 trifecta: 1/5,10/2,3,4,5,8,10
$6 trifecta: 5,10/1/2,3,4,5,8,10
$4PK4:
7: 1
8: 3,4
9: 1,7
10: 2,6,7,10,12
($80)


$2PK4
7: 1,5,10
8: 3,4
9: 1
10: 2,6,7,10,12
($60)








race 10:
7-Sharp Sensation $60W
$20 exacta: 7/2,6,10,12
$10 exacta: 2,6,10,12/7
$4 trifecta: 7/2,6,10,12/2,4,6,10,12
$2 trifecta: 2,7/2,6,10,12/2,4,6,10,12

 

[BringInTheLefty]

recap:


VERY frustrating way to end today
race 10 my choice ran a big race at 7/1
I hit exacta but poorly bet the trifecta
it paid $264.50 for .50
I should have had it for $2
I do hope a few of you hit it






race 2:
finished 4th
bet: $270
collected: $0







race 5:
finished 4th
bet: $398
collected: $0







race 7:
best bet finished dead last
bet: $650
collected: $0






race 10:
finished 2nd
hit the 6-7 exacta for $10 paid $53.50 per $2
bet: $312
collected: $535

for $32 more dollars I’d have cashed for $1,058
I’m a dumb fuk….



total bet: $1,630
total collected: $535
-$1,095








thru 14 days:
+$2,108
best bets: 14-6-1-1
best bet winning prices:
$12.60
$9.50
$9.30
$9.20
$9.00
$5.60





couldn’t have had a worse week betting
yet I’m still ahead for the meet
made a major fuk up today

need these two days to regroup
looking forward to Wednesday
stay healthy everyone

 

[BringInTheLefty]

‘Toga Day 15:
+$2,108
best bets: 14-6-1-1
best bet winning prices:
$12.60
$9.50
$9.30
$9.20
$9.00
$5.60











race 1:
6-Decisive Triumph $40W
$10 exacta: 6/1,3,5
$5 exacta: 1,3,5/6
$4 trifecta: 6/1,3,5/1,3,4,5,7
$2 trifecta: 1,3,5/6/1,3,4,5,7









race 4:
6-Charge Account $200W **best bet**
$60 exacta: 6/4,5
$40 exacta: 4,5/6
$20 trifecta: 6/4,5/1,3,4,5
$10 trifecta: 4,5/6/1,3,4,5








race 6:
6-Sweetest Princess $80W
$30 exacta: 6/3,5,7
$15 exacta: 3,5,7/6
$6 trifecta: 6/3,5,7/3,4,5,7
$3 trifecta: 3,5,7/6/3,4,5,7










race 9:
3-Princess Fawzia $80W
$40 exacta: 3/1,2
$20 exacta: 1,2/3
$20 trifecta: 3/1,2/1,2,4
$10 trifecta: 1,2/3/1,2,4

 

[Gandolf]

Lefty, in Race 6, what goes into your evaluation of first time starters? When I use Brisnet I look at a few things:

1) Sire, Dam Sire and Trainer 1st time win percentages: when those 3 numbers total over 40 I'm very interested, between 30-40 I'm somewhat interested
2) On turf, a similar calc with Turf %s for the sire & dam sire plus the trainer's debut turf percentage. Again over 40 is strong, 30-40 is OK.
3) A bullet work listed: 4 furlongs is good, 5 furlongs is great
4) For sprints I look for the most recent gate drill: sub 12 seconds per furlong is strong, 12-12.25 seconds per furlongs is OK

This being a route race on turf, the workout speeds are probably not all that important.

Naturally in a maiden race like the 6th, I need to look at how the horses that have run previously performed. Usually they need to have an effort within a few points of the race par to have me interested, unless they have a noteworthy trainer and an excuse in the last race.

So based on my criteria I can see why the 1 & 4 are out of your top 2, and I agree the 3,5,6 & 7 are all reasonable contenders. But what puts the #6 on top? Is it the higher morning line price?

 

[BringInTheLefty]

Lefty, in Race 6, what goes into your evaluation of first time starters? When I use Brisnet I look at a few things:

1) Sire, Dam Sire and Trainer 1st time win percentages: when those 3 numbers total over 40 I'm very interested, between 30-40 I'm somewhat interested
2) On turf, a similar calc with Turf %s for the sire & dam sire plus the trainer's debut turf percentage. Again over 40 is strong, 30-40 is OK.
3) A bullet work listed: 4 furlongs is good, 5 furlongs is great
4) For sprints I look for the most recent gate drill: sub 12 seconds per furlong is strong, 12-12.25 seconds per furlongs is OK

This being a route race on turf, the workout speeds are probably not all that important.

Naturally in a maiden race like the 6th, I need to look at how the horses that have run previously performed. Usually they need to have an effort within a few points of the race par to have me interested, unless they have a noteworthy trainer and an excuse in the last race.

So based on my criteria I can see why the 1 & 4 are out of your top 2, and I agree the 3,5,6 & 7 are all reasonable contenders. But what puts the #6 on top? Is it the higher morning line price?

really great analysis from you

I landed on the 6 because
Franco riding for Weaver last 60 days 23% +4.30 ROI
she’s bred top & bottom for the grass as well
also two of my pals on the backside say Weaver really likes this one

 

[aplous]

BOOM Charge Account and the Exotics

 

[KJ]

Brilliant ride by Javi. Nicely done!

 

[Gandolf]

Best Bets back on the rails, nice! Let's get as hot as Akacia!

 

[KJ]

Best Bets back on the rails, nice! Let's get as hot as Akacia!

She's as hot as a non-exotic chick can look. Never thought I'd be down with a ghost but she does the trick.

 

[Gandolf]

She's as hot as a non-exotic chick can look. Never thought I'd be down with a ghost but she does the trick.

She's made Maggie Wolfendale raise her game too.

 

[KJ]

She's made Maggie Wolfendale raise her game too.

To be a fly on the wall when Maggie got told they were hiring a pageant queen to be her cohort lol

 

[KJ]

6 out the gate is how I wake up and get out of bed

 

[Gandolf]

If the 6 didn't give up 5 lengths at the break it might've been interesting.

 

[KJ]

Mags just said the best hitters in baseball hit around .500 :rofl:

No more metaphors for you!

 

[Gandolf]

Pretty good race riding there.

 

[BringInTheLefty]

recap:




race 1:
finished 2nd
hit exacta 5-6 paying $20.70 for $1
$103.50
hit trifecta 5-6-3 paying $67.24 per $1
$134.48

bet: $157
collected: $237.98







race 4:
best bet winner paying $8.90
hit 6-4 exacta paying $13.30 per $1
$798
hit 6-4-5 trifecta paying $40.50 per $1
$810

bet: $580
collected: $2,498








race 6:
ran 5th
bet: $311
collected: $0








race 9:
finished 3rd
bet: $320
collected: $0





total bet: $1,368
total collected: $2,735.98
+$1,367.97





+$3,475.98
best bets: 15-7-1-1
best bet winning prices:
$12.60
$9.50
$9.30
$9.20
$9.00
$8.90
$5.60

 

[BringInTheLefty]

‘Toga Day 16:
+$3,475.98
best bets: 15-7-1-1
best bet winning prices:
$12.60
$9.50
$9.30
$9.20
$9.00
$8.90
$5.60





*****IF any of my races I’ve chosen come off the grass then EVERY bet is canceled*****







race 2:
5-Cowichan $80W
$20 exacta: 5/1,2,6
$10 trifecta: 5/1,2,6/1,2,3,4,6

WW 32% when taking blinkers off









race 6:
7-Lachaise $80W
$25 exacta: 7/1,4,9
$15 exacta: 1,4,9/7
$40DD: 7/3
$20PK3:
6: 7
7: 3
8: 5,6




$10PK3:
6: 1,4,7
7: 1,3
8: 5,6









race 7:
3-Spicy Marg $200W ***best bet***
$60 exacta: 3/1,2,7
$30 exacta: 1,3,7/3
$20 trifecta: 3/1,2,7/1,2,6,7,8
$10 trifecta: 1,2,7/3/1,2,6,7,8








race 10:
3-R Repossdo Loca $80W
$25 exacta: 3/1,2,4
$15 exacta: 1,2,4/5
$10 trifecta: 3/1,2,4/1,2,4,6,7
$6 trifecta: 1,2,4/3/1,2,4,6,7

 

[Inspekdah]

Are you cancelling all the R7 bets?

 

[KJ]

Are you cancelling all the R7 bets?

Did they say it's off? Didn't hear that if so.

 

[Colin Wynner]

They ran on grass; bet was on and bet was a winnah! Well done!!!

 

[KJ]

Titties!

 

[KJ]

Not to mention the pk3 with the two favorites still alive. Great race, well done Lefty!

 

[Inspekdah]

bang

 

[Marsski]

Boom! Never in doubt

 

[BringInTheLefty]

Boom! Never in doubt

BIG BIG DAY !!!!!
now time to ice the cake

 

[KJ]

No chance I'd bet against Art Collector here but if he gets beat please let it be Joel. Tough to not have anything on Chad/Irad here, probably worth a saver bet.

 

[BringInTheLefty]

No chance I'd bet against Art Collector here but if he gets beat please let it be Joel. Tough to not have anything on Chad/Irad here, probably worth a saver bet.

NEVER HEDGE
balls to the wall or nothing

 

[KJ]

NEVER HEDGE
balls to the wall or nothing

Can't remember the last time I hedged in any sport. Could middle by taking 1 to place.

 

[KJ]

NEVER HEDGE
balls to the wall or nothing

:cheers3:

 

[BringInTheLefty]

:cheers3:

VERY big day
I hope you all made monies

 

[KJ]

When you put these wagers in do you break them up into several wagers to avoid the IRS BS?

 

[BringInTheLefty]

When you put these wagers in do you break them up into several wagers to avoid the IRS BS?

I put them all in with either TwinSpires or Xpressbets
with new tax laws I don’t get crushed as bad

 

[KJ]

I put them all in with either TwinSpires or Xpressbets
with new tax laws I don’t get crushed as bad

I use xpressbet and it's not tough to write off gambling winnings. Was just curious if you break them up like I do to avoid the hassle of it all.