BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Under 191.5
- all my stats based on opening lines & regulation scores, unless otherwise noted.
San Antonio
- is U/O 5-3-1 (4 pts off 8-1) at an average of 182.5 points vs .560 or better records, as opposed to U/O 6-13-1 at an average of 194.1 points vs .559 or worse records, this season. Utah's % record is .724.
- has had 1 instance this season of a home game off a home loss: that game totaled 183 points, going Over by 1 point. Last season, they were U/O 6-0 at an average of 170.6 points in a home game off a home loss.
- has conceded an average of 83.0 points in a game off a home loss, this season (4 instances). They conceded an average of 83.2 points in the same spot last season (7 instances).
- is U/O 3-0 at an average of 174.0 points coming off a game that totaled 210+ overall points, this season. Their last game totaled 221 points.
- is U/O 3-0 at an average of 178.0 points coming off a game in which they conceded 100+ points, this season. They conceded 114 points in their last game.
- is U/O 4-0 at an average of 170.5 points in a home game after losing their previous 2 home games, over the last 4 seasons (twice previously they have met Utah in this spot).
Utah
- is U/O 4-2 at an average of 193.5 points in SU road losses, as opposed to U/O 1-8 at an average of 209.4 points in SU road wins, this season.
- is U/O 3-1 (1 pt off 4-0) at an average of 190.5 points vs the West's "Big 3" (DAL, SAS & PHX) this season.
- is U/O 4-1 at an average of 162.2 points in its last 5 games vs the Spurs, in which they were Dogs of 7.5 points or less.
- has gone U/O 6-2 at an average of 197.0 points off a SU win over their last 16 games, after going U/O 4-7 at an average of 207.6 points off a SU win over their 1st 13 games of the season. They won their last game SU.
- has gone U/O 6-3 at an average of 190.8 points off 1 days rest over their last 16 games, after going U/O 2-5 at an average of 205.4 points off 1 days rest over their 1st 13 games off the season.
Utah's season has quite a noticable fault line running through it: their first 13 games, where they went 12-1 SU (.923 win % - U/O 4-9), vs their latest 16 games in which they have gone 9-7 SU (.562 win % - U/O 10-6). So while their overall season totals mark is 16-13 to Over, this is a deceptive reality: the grind has slowed their early season enthusiasms, and hence their Overs output %.
The stats say it all for this one. As freely as these teams have been scoring this season vs previous season's perceptions of their defensive selves, they've still reverted to type when they've come up against the better teams in the league: the above stats spell that out. The only inertia I could find is the fact Utah is 8-2 to Over this season as the Dog, vs 12-7 to Under as the Fav - Thats a big enough fly to my ointment to curb the size of my stake here.
- all my stats based on opening lines & regulation scores, unless otherwise noted.
San Antonio
- is U/O 5-3-1 (4 pts off 8-1) at an average of 182.5 points vs .560 or better records, as opposed to U/O 6-13-1 at an average of 194.1 points vs .559 or worse records, this season. Utah's % record is .724.
- has had 1 instance this season of a home game off a home loss: that game totaled 183 points, going Over by 1 point. Last season, they were U/O 6-0 at an average of 170.6 points in a home game off a home loss.
- has conceded an average of 83.0 points in a game off a home loss, this season (4 instances). They conceded an average of 83.2 points in the same spot last season (7 instances).
- is U/O 3-0 at an average of 174.0 points coming off a game that totaled 210+ overall points, this season. Their last game totaled 221 points.
- is U/O 3-0 at an average of 178.0 points coming off a game in which they conceded 100+ points, this season. They conceded 114 points in their last game.
- is U/O 4-0 at an average of 170.5 points in a home game after losing their previous 2 home games, over the last 4 seasons (twice previously they have met Utah in this spot).
Utah
- is U/O 4-2 at an average of 193.5 points in SU road losses, as opposed to U/O 1-8 at an average of 209.4 points in SU road wins, this season.
- is U/O 3-1 (1 pt off 4-0) at an average of 190.5 points vs the West's "Big 3" (DAL, SAS & PHX) this season.
- is U/O 4-1 at an average of 162.2 points in its last 5 games vs the Spurs, in which they were Dogs of 7.5 points or less.
- has gone U/O 6-2 at an average of 197.0 points off a SU win over their last 16 games, after going U/O 4-7 at an average of 207.6 points off a SU win over their 1st 13 games of the season. They won their last game SU.
- has gone U/O 6-3 at an average of 190.8 points off 1 days rest over their last 16 games, after going U/O 2-5 at an average of 205.4 points off 1 days rest over their 1st 13 games off the season.
Utah's season has quite a noticable fault line running through it: their first 13 games, where they went 12-1 SU (.923 win % - U/O 4-9), vs their latest 16 games in which they have gone 9-7 SU (.562 win % - U/O 10-6). So while their overall season totals mark is 16-13 to Over, this is a deceptive reality: the grind has slowed their early season enthusiasms, and hence their Overs output %.
The stats say it all for this one. As freely as these teams have been scoring this season vs previous season's perceptions of their defensive selves, they've still reverted to type when they've come up against the better teams in the league: the above stats spell that out. The only inertia I could find is the fact Utah is 8-2 to Over this season as the Dog, vs 12-7 to Under as the Fav - Thats a big enough fly to my ointment to curb the size of my stake here.
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