Sunday's Best Bets: Add This NFL Week 3 Parlay
This is one of those games in which the spread and total pair nicely together, meaning that the spread will hit, in a sense, because the total will hit.
Therefore, for reasons that I will explain, you should play spread and total for this game.
New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 1 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts
Patriots Undervalued
While the Patriots being 1-1 ATS is obviously nothing amazing, a look into these two games reveals that the Patriots are undervalued in specific circumstances.
In the season opener, New England did not cover the short spread as it lost 17-16 to Miami.
Besides being quarterback Mac Jones' first ever NFL start, this game was tougher for the Patriots to win because of the Dolphin defense, which as a result of its top-level rankings last year and its returning talent this year, merited meaningful offseason hype.
The second game was much easier for the Patriots as they covered as 5.5-point favorites by blasting the Jets 25-6.
What I think these two games show is the following: New England is undervalued against teams with weaker defenses.
Saints Secondary
Heading into this season, New Orleans' top cornerback was easily Marshon Lattimore.
Lattimore participated in New Orleans' season-opening blowout of Green Bay but not in his team's second game, a loss against Carolina.
His absence was injury-induced: he is listed as 'out indefinitely' with a thumb injury.
Lattimore's absence allowed Panther quarterback Sam Darnold to put up similar numbers to those that he helped his team defeat the Jets with: Darnold completed nearly 70 percent of his throws while eclipsing 300 passing yards.
Saints Pass Rush
One common theme in Mac Jones' starts is that he is well-prepared against teams that blitz a lot and try hard to send a lot of pressure.
In his season-opener, he was a superb 14-of-18 with 112 yards when the Dolphins blitzed.
He has a lot of big targets as options, including multiple former starting tight ends (Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith) and a very well-known pass-catching running back in James White to help him when he's in trouble.
Part of why Miami felt and feels confidence blitzing is the solidity of its secondary, which it has stocked up well in recent years.
Not only does New Orleans lack quality in the secondary with Lattimore absent, but its pass rush is too dependent on a single player, for which reasons the Saints currently rank in the bottom half, 21st, in sack rate.
This will be an easier defense for the rookie quarterback to navigate.
He's not going to blow the Saint defense away. He's a conservative quarterback who throws a high percentage of his passes 0-10 yards past the line of scrimmage.
But he won't make mistakes and he has enough pass-catching options to help his team score enough times.
Patriot Defense
One reason why the Patriots are easily underrated is their defense, while the Saints' opening blowout win against Green Bay is keeping them overvalued and overhyped at least for now.
One may try to say that, in one respect, the Patriots resemble the Packers.
New England's defensive front has suffered some overhaul and may, therefore, be thought to resemble the vulnerability of Green Bay's front seven, which was manhandled and often pushed around in its season-opening 35-point loss to the Saints.
Statistically speaking, run defense is indeed the weakness of the Patriot defense: whereas New England ranks seventh in limiting opposing pass yards, it ranks 14th in limiting opposing rush yards.
14th isn't terrible, but it's not great. But one more meaningful reason why concern over New England's rush defense is overstated is the way that opponents are accruing their rushing yards.
The Jets, for example, rushed for a nice total, but outside of their four longest runs they amassed 27 carries for less than 100 yards.
They mustered the occasional chunk gain -- perhaps they managed too many of these.
But Jet running backs were also shut down on the goal line, limited to field goals, and typically reduced to an inconsistent unit.
This is a New England defense that is reloaded with returning talent that had opted out last year, one example being two-time Pro-Bowler Dont'a Hightower.
While cornerback Stephon Gilmore is injured, the Patriot pass defense numbers are evidently still solid.
Unlike the Saints, they have more quality depth at the position with guys like J.C. Jackson, who was snubbed from the Pro Bowl after amassing nine interceptions.
Jackson regularly punishes opposing quarterbacks for trying to throw downfield.
Besides Gilmore not meaningfully hurting the Patriot pass defense, New England has played more 'bend-but-don't break' defense in his absence, as evident in its higher use of four-man rush and underneath zone coverage against Miami, for example.
Best Bet: Parlay Patriots ML at -145 & Under 43 at -108 at +225 odds with Heritage
This is one of those games in which the spread and total pair nicely together, meaning that the spread will hit, in a sense, because the total will hit.
Therefore, for reasons that I will explain, you should play spread and total for this game.
New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 1 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts
Patriots Undervalued
While the Patriots being 1-1 ATS is obviously nothing amazing, a look into these two games reveals that the Patriots are undervalued in specific circumstances.
In the season opener, New England did not cover the short spread as it lost 17-16 to Miami.
Besides being quarterback Mac Jones' first ever NFL start, this game was tougher for the Patriots to win because of the Dolphin defense, which as a result of its top-level rankings last year and its returning talent this year, merited meaningful offseason hype.
The second game was much easier for the Patriots as they covered as 5.5-point favorites by blasting the Jets 25-6.
What I think these two games show is the following: New England is undervalued against teams with weaker defenses.
Saints Secondary
Heading into this season, New Orleans' top cornerback was easily Marshon Lattimore.
Lattimore participated in New Orleans' season-opening blowout of Green Bay but not in his team's second game, a loss against Carolina.
His absence was injury-induced: he is listed as 'out indefinitely' with a thumb injury.
Lattimore's absence allowed Panther quarterback Sam Darnold to put up similar numbers to those that he helped his team defeat the Jets with: Darnold completed nearly 70 percent of his throws while eclipsing 300 passing yards.
Saints Pass Rush
One common theme in Mac Jones' starts is that he is well-prepared against teams that blitz a lot and try hard to send a lot of pressure.
In his season-opener, he was a superb 14-of-18 with 112 yards when the Dolphins blitzed.
He has a lot of big targets as options, including multiple former starting tight ends (Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith) and a very well-known pass-catching running back in James White to help him when he's in trouble.
Part of why Miami felt and feels confidence blitzing is the solidity of its secondary, which it has stocked up well in recent years.
Not only does New Orleans lack quality in the secondary with Lattimore absent, but its pass rush is too dependent on a single player, for which reasons the Saints currently rank in the bottom half, 21st, in sack rate.
This will be an easier defense for the rookie quarterback to navigate.
He's not going to blow the Saint defense away. He's a conservative quarterback who throws a high percentage of his passes 0-10 yards past the line of scrimmage.
But he won't make mistakes and he has enough pass-catching options to help his team score enough times.
Patriot Defense
One reason why the Patriots are easily underrated is their defense, while the Saints' opening blowout win against Green Bay is keeping them overvalued and overhyped at least for now.
One may try to say that, in one respect, the Patriots resemble the Packers.
New England's defensive front has suffered some overhaul and may, therefore, be thought to resemble the vulnerability of Green Bay's front seven, which was manhandled and often pushed around in its season-opening 35-point loss to the Saints.
Statistically speaking, run defense is indeed the weakness of the Patriot defense: whereas New England ranks seventh in limiting opposing pass yards, it ranks 14th in limiting opposing rush yards.
14th isn't terrible, but it's not great. But one more meaningful reason why concern over New England's rush defense is overstated is the way that opponents are accruing their rushing yards.
The Jets, for example, rushed for a nice total, but outside of their four longest runs they amassed 27 carries for less than 100 yards.
They mustered the occasional chunk gain -- perhaps they managed too many of these.
But Jet running backs were also shut down on the goal line, limited to field goals, and typically reduced to an inconsistent unit.
This is a New England defense that is reloaded with returning talent that had opted out last year, one example being two-time Pro-Bowler Dont'a Hightower.
While cornerback Stephon Gilmore is injured, the Patriot pass defense numbers are evidently still solid.
Unlike the Saints, they have more quality depth at the position with guys like J.C. Jackson, who was snubbed from the Pro Bowl after amassing nine interceptions.
Jackson regularly punishes opposing quarterbacks for trying to throw downfield.
Besides Gilmore not meaningfully hurting the Patriot pass defense, New England has played more 'bend-but-don't break' defense in his absence, as evident in its higher use of four-man rush and underneath zone coverage against Miami, for example.
Best Bet: Parlay Patriots ML at -145 & Under 43 at -108 at +225 odds with Heritage
