Is Tulane worth it again?
What happened last week:
Last week vs Syracuse, Terrel Hunt was the real deal for Orange. And the OL was every bit of a problem as expected it could be.
Here are Tulane's 1st half drives.
11p-50y 1st and goal at 5, kick FG.
3-and-out, punt blk'd.
5p-75y TD drive.
3-and-out, punt tipped/blk'd.
10p-61y 1st and goal at 2, FG blk'd.
7p-59y TD drive.
254 yards, 4 drives inside the Cuse 5 and just 17 pts.
Here are Syracuse's 1st half drives:
7p-75y TD
7p-75y TD
2p-6y TD
3p-15y TD
4p-17y TD
3-and-out, punt
9p-85y TD
Syracuse was going to get their points and yards in this game, eventually atleast, but 2 blk'd / tipped punts and a muffed punt allowed Syracuse to get off easy and 3 TD drives totaling just 38 yards. In total 4 special teams break downs including the blk'd FG preventing 3 Wave point directly accounted for 31 pt Cuse advantage in the 45 point win.
Tulane was able to move the ball, but failed to cash. Mostly because of the OL either in lack of run blocking, QB hurries or sacks. We knew the OL was a major problem area and Syracuse made it a glaring weakness.
Second half, neither team had much left. Syracuse scored with just a couple seconds before halftime for a 45-17 lead (10 yard advantage) and the wind was taken out of Tulane's sails.
The positives to take away for Tulane were that a #2 WR emerged in Justin Shackelford (7-106-TD). And Darkwa/Kelly RB combo did run for 91 (5.95) on just 16 attempts (including only 3 in 2nd half). Montana proved his toughness getting knocked down several times. With 3 sacks vs Cuse and 6 vs LT that makes 9 in 2 weeks.
Tulane D obviously struggled, which we knew was possible if Hunt was the real deal and that he was. The encouragement from the LT game was squashed pretty quickly.
Injuries
I hear that Jeremy Peeples should be back on the DL this week (LSU transfer only played 1 full game '13, injured vs LT), however leading tackler S Sam Scofield could miss (concussion) and RB Darkwa is doubtful at this point (shoulder). Darkwa is quality player for sure, but Kelley has led the team in rushing the last 2 weeks. Kelley is also dealing with a shoulder injury, but Johnson didn't seem to think he'd miss.
To my knowledge ULM is fairly healthy.
2012 63-10 ULM blow-out win
ULM was 20 pt fav in the Superdome in an incredible hot streak that saw them beat Arkansas in OT, nearly beat Auburn in OT and only lost by 5 at home to Baylor in a primetime Friday night game. Many thought that ULM would be flat vs Tulane, but ULM kept that momentum and rolled right over Tulane.
It must be noted that Tulane was starting a career backup QB and 42% passer DJ Ponder, officially 3rd string, in that game. I believe Darkwa was not 100% as well (missed first 3, returned here). Tulane gained just 151 total yards. In the previous 2 games vs Ole Miss and Tulsa, Tulane had totaled 159 and 177 yards respectively, clearly this offense was not in a very good place last year. And defensively Tulsa had just gained 651 yards on Wave 2 weeks prior and ULM racked up 553 yards here. The Wave DL was in bad shape and they had not adjusted to Mackey's loss at LB.
You have to believe that overall, Tulane is in a better state offensively and defensively this year over last. What about ULM?
Is ULM as good as last year?
After last year, you'd expect ULM to be competitive vs most of the big boys, but they got steam rolled by both OU and Baylor, but hard to hold that against them. They beat WF (Wake dropped game tying 2pt conv late 4th qrt) and maybe since WF isn't a good BCS team, ULM isn't getting any credit for that win. They did have 424 yards on 104 plays in that one and held WF to just 325 on 63 plays.
Despite not competing well vs OU or Baylor, ULM is largely the exact same team they had last year. 4 OL starters are back (incl 9 of 10) and everyone else on O except the #1 WR and TE return. On D they essentially lost just 1 starter since LB Cameron Blakes was injured in '12 and he was actually 1st tm SB 2010. They have elevated rFr Justin Backus to starting CB over Vincent Eddie, but everything else is just about as you'd expect on the 2 Deep.
Kolton Browning is not leading them in rushing this year though. Jyruss Edwards is #1 with 233 (5.3). Browning is #3 with 90y (3.6). Browning is struggling throwing with just 54% overall (63% vs WF) for 208 ypg and a 7-6 ratio.
The D numbers aren't great because of who they've played. They did sack WF 4x on 52 drop backs.
After finishing +7 TOs last year they are -6 so far this year including -2 and -1 vs Grambling and WF respectively.
Who do I like?
I haven't been overlooking the faults of Tulane necessarily, but put more emphasis on their potential last week vs Syracuse. That and the massive spread move really got my attention with perceived value there. The Syracuse game could have gone differently, but with bad teams you get bad play sometimes, so it is what it is.
I actually like Tulane less this week than I did last week. I mentioned in schrute's ML thread about them being a potential ML play for me, but that is really hard to envision after thinking on it more.
ULM might not quite have the mojo they had last year, but they
should be just as good as 2012 when they were quite good. I think playing a fantastic Baylor team and maybe a OU team that many didn't expect to have an improved D has masked that. They did beat WF and that game could have been a more comfortable ULM as they were SOD and WF 9 and missed a FG from the WF 7 on successive second half possessions. Browning's play might be of some concern.
I think Tulane isn't getting enough points to have me play them this week. The line was 20 last year and a hot ULM team thumped a bad Tulane team. Tulane is better this year and ULM isn't playing at the same level, but has the gap narrowed so much that the spread is now just 13 on ULM's turf?
It's tempting for me to go back on Tulane this week, but I think I have to be a little smarter and stay away unless the spread dramatically rises. You just can't make a real compelling case to take Tulane. Revenge? Maybe, but Wave doesn't have all the pieces and 2-2 ULM wants to bounceback from a 7-70 Baylor loss just as much as Tulane would like to get back in the win column. The only difference is that ULM is much better positioned to make that happen.
