Rutgers @ South Florida ...another BAD LINE?




S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Okay guys just started looking at this game and I have to say I dont see why Rutgers is -3.5 pts favs.

I mean explain to me what they have done his year. They beat and barely won @ UNC. They led 14-10 at home extended it to 21-10 when UNC was knocking on the door and I vaguely remember the play but on the 1yd line UNC fumbled. That would have made it 21-17 or 16-18 if they go for 2 pts. Next they stop RU after the fumble and drive right down field and score (89yd drive) make it 21-6 miss the deuce. Stop RU again and get teh ball back. Now have it 3rd and 6 at the RU 29 and get picked. I understsand there is some woulda, coulda , shoulda involved. However we are talking NORTH CAROLINA. How bad did both VaTech and Clemson smoke this team? Now I have to say that R fumbled deep in UNC territory. However it was 3rd and 15 from the 16 yd line...so really they missed out on 3 pts. The yardage was nearly equal 5.7 per play but NC ran 6 more plays.

How bad in UNC they won by 3 against Furman at home. Now I know Furman is sound and a good 1 AA program but this is the ACC. Oh VaTech beat them 35-10 at home and last weeks #19 Clemson beat them 52-7 as only 2 TD favs. The kicker about RU @ UNC is that they wer e4.5 point dogs! Truthfully though the line indicates UNC is a stronger team , I owuld be comfortable saying on a neutral field the game would be a PK or RU -1.5 nothing more.

Now The Scarlet Knights come home. They play Illinois. If you watched that game you felt bad for Illinois thats how bad they looked. It was mostly points off takeaways and RU just literally ran the ball everytime 2nd Half think it was 30-0 at half. Again how bad is Illinois? As a bad as they are they did manage to beat RU at home last year in a huge choke job RU. Bottomline just 10 pt favs and Ill is bad folks...

Now Ohio U. They started off down 7-0 to Frank Solich 's boyz but ran over 24 straight 1st Half oints. The last a defensive TD which put them up 24-7. How bad is Ohio U's offense? I do recall the beat Pitt at home last year without scoring an offensive TD...they had 2 pick 6's by the same kid!

WHile I am knocking Ohio U there defense is solid and if you look the gave RU a game despite the final. Teel was 6 of16 for 83 yds and 3 INTS's. This year a 2 TD -5 Int Ratio and career is 4TD to 14 INTS. Folks RU has no passing game and that is a big change from Ryan Hart. Ray Rice and Brian Leonard are very , very good backs but Leonard for HEISMAN was so laughable it was like anti-American propoganda in the Mid East... simply outrageous! Oh and Ohio after Teel Ints had the ball inside the 20of RU twice and didnt scoer anything....good RU defense or BAD Ohio offense...I chose bad offense.

Now they played Howard....Do I have to even go there!


So what is so special about RU? Last year they opened at Ill and collapsed in the 4th Q losing 33 -30. Then they played @ Buffalo and won 17-3 to bad they couldnt score enough to cover the 23 pt spread. They went to Syracuse as 2.5 dogs and won 31-9. Now say that OUTLOUD Underdog at Syracuse! Playing against UConns 3 rd stringer they won 26-24 and not cashing against the -3 spread. Say it agains 3rd string QB... There crowning acheivement was going to Lousiville catching 23 and losing 56-5! Funny but South Florida won @ Rutgers catching 2.5 and hosted Lville and won at home vs them.

Very interesting matchup. RU lost there QB Hart but have strong backs in Rice and Leonard. Now QB was a problem with Paul Jumiste but he got hurt and Grohe has stepped in a NICE UPGRADE. Problem is USF LOST Andre Hall and both replacements are injured and or suspended.

RU as I am trying to explain lacks a passing game and also lost its best WR vs Howard and are now extremely thin @ wr. They do have Clark Harris @ TE who is there playmaker in the passing game. I just dont see how RU is better this year then last? The defense looks solid but how could it not with those opponents? RU has taken a step back with Teel at QB, as good teams can focus on the run.

USF is a bit tougher to figure cause it relies so heavily on Grohe. I havent seen the kid play. I was impressed that he reportedly outplayed Jumiste in camp a senior and returning starter. I was impressed whne called upon vs McNeese St he was ready to play and led the offense. I was somewhat impressed after watching UCF tonite he received Big East Player of the week for his 300yd game against them. I dont think he played that badly vs KU a solid defensive team on the road. Openin drive the kid takes them downfield but after 77 yards or so they cant convert a 4th and 1. Losing 13-7 to KU isnt a bad thing in my back. I though KU outplayed Toledo earlier. Sure KU had its backup QB but Barraman had started at one time and was a senior.

I think people will knock USF for the Fla Int game but they were 20 pt chalk something RU wasnt versus Illinois or Ohio U . They did give FIU 13 of the 20 points they scored ...punt return and pick 6. Also Grohe is young hewill be up and down...he was down vs FIU and rebounded to play well @ UCF. I for one knw that USF returns 7 of 11 on defense. I know they have played solid defense this year and definetly last year. Isnt holding WVU to 28 impressive or Lville 14??

Still working on this game but RU is one dimensonal..pure rushing attack. Its tough to be like that and score on the road and tougher to be road chalk. I said that with SoMiss tonite and say what you want but I still feel like UCF outplayed them. Look at the favt UCF twice walked awy with no points after driving 75-85 yards! Fumble at the 1 and missed 26 yarder! Then take into account all of SoMiss points came after momentum changing plays.

I think RU struggles to score here. I also said that the NE and Denver line was bad , the Falcon line was inflated and today I told the UCF line was INflated! Iwas righ three times. Its late and I am going to Fla tmrw so to be continued.

However I think this probably should be a PKem . Remember RU last year at home was ONLY -2.5 and lost. I dont see RU as being better in 2006 with Teel , some WR;s questions and a untested defense that lost some core players from 2005.

Start telling me how stupid I am and how MY points sound good on paper but Rutgers SHOULD WIN... I tell ya check BDK's NFL threads and every thread on this site today

Just breaking balls but this a Friday gamethat will have lots of action.

Looking at RU (see 3.5 but lots of 4's if u shop.) Also like the Under 22.5 +100 team total..only WVU topped 20 at home vs USF..think WVU offense is a little better. Always nice to see so much action on a game and no movement....are the books taking a side ??

GL= Please comment!:hairout: I still havent fully loooked atthis game. I just couldnt resist looking at it and I am happy with what I discovered.



 
Naturally the ML @ +145 as well. Some typos in there bare with me(first sentence home means half).
 
Okay bedtime to be continued......

chew on this though

opens at 3.5 jumps immediately to 4.5 backdown to 3.5 the next day and bounces bewteen 3.5 and 4 since...Um the problem is 4-1 ratio of RU bets.
 
Great thoughts..

I have hit Rutgers at 2-0 this year but feel they may lose this SU as well. Still looking but good chance we have same side again.
 
sportsnut,

I originally leaned to Rutgers, but have backed off...have seen USF play UCF and am finishing watching the Kansas game...
 
I think you are right on about Rutgers/USF sportsnut! I also think you are right about UCF outplaying S.M. last night too! I may play the ML here. GL
 
rugers is better than all 3 teams....usf barely beat evberyone on their schedule and was down to mcneese fucking state 21-0 at one point inb the game. rutgers is on a mission this year and will win this game by atleast 7 points.usf has a young qb and horrible coaching. the only way the bulls win is by pure luck or the knights shooting themselves in the foot and i mean with a s.k.u.d missle in the foot. this may also be a tryout for Graschianno(sp?) on the national level in case coker gets fired, he may be moving to the big time with his success he has had every year and all the hype he is getting as well. rutgers or no play IMO.

BTW you are corrct about the game alst night. UCF deserved to win lucky for me i grabbed the line at -3, hahha.
 
Rice is a one of the top 5 back's in the country. Yeap. Plus I believe they have superior coaching here. They were not at home against UNC. They went into there and broke down their defense.. and UNC played pretty well.

Ohio has turned out to be a decent team and Rutgers stomped them. They also had Illinois beat in the first 3 minutues. No way USF would have been able to do the same. I am biased b/c I like Rutgers this year alot. I think they have been coasting and are waiting for another big time matchup like they have this week. They looked great against Illinois on primetime television and should not give up here either. Perhaps some value in taking in taking the home dogg here... but capping based off a point or two of value will get you no where.
 
Troy-

Good pull on the early line with SoMiss. Funny I commented to Fondy or someone that I have changed from trying grab the early lines cause usually the cover the final line anwyway. For me I am just happy that UCF covered the +6 to +7 cause I got on my soapbox and started yapping about the game. Second I am glad cause I felt my comments about SoMiss being overrated were validated. The kid young impressed me with his arm and touch when he had time. Get his feet moving and he was inaccurate though. The Frosh was good but he isnt all world like Mark May mad it sound. Did the SoMiss defense really look any good? I did not see any of the 1st H till UCF started driving and missed the chip FG. I did see that UCF had 2 fairly long scoring drives and 2 drives that amassed 160 yds that resulted in a missed FG and fumble on the 1. The UCF defense isnt one of the worst in the country well maybe at tackling. All in all the difference seemed to be composure and technique more then anything. So happy man that all the people early to the party won with SoMiss and all the late comers hit with UCF.

Now Troy clearly one would think Rutgers is better then those 3 they are ranked #23 in the nation. That was sort of my point what has this team done to deserved to be ranked. I dont really pay attention to rankings however I noticed Clemson was #19 in the nation last week. Did yo see Clemson play @ BC , win @ FSU and destroy UNC? I am sure they moved in but to me Clemson and Rutgers dont deserve to be in the same arguement.

I understand USF has played some close games. The were NOT down 21-0 to McNeese State though it was 7-0 due to a muffed punt attempt. They had Paul Jumiste @ QB till he got hurt. Once Grohe came in tehy outscored them 41-3 for a 41-10 final. USF held McNeese to 82 yards on 37 carries and 7-19 for 81 yds net passing with 2 Ints. So McNeese was only momentarily in that game.

Now second game they get FIU at home. Now the key in my eyes is they were listed a s20 pt favs. I would like to see a game bewteen FIU and some of RU opponents namely Illinois and OhioU. FIU has a 1pt loss @ Mid Tenn St , a 5 pt home loss to Bowling Green (only 5 pt dogs) and a 4 pt loss @ Maryland. They arent good but they aint that bad IMO. Now we saw the UCF game yesterday its not that bad of a win going there. Granted Kevin Smith was out but I saw a skilled but inconsistent UCF squad. Now they go to Kansas and lose 13-7. I KNOW Kansas is better then anyone RU has played.

You say the only way Rutgers loses if they shot themselves in the foot. Go check some RU boxscores they have done that but there INFERIOR opponents cant take advantage. Perfect example Ohio U. They lose 24-7 last score was a defensive TD before HALF. There were 2 possession where Ohio started around the RU 20 and didnt score(missed Fg and INT). If they punch those in and in make 24-21 or 24 -17 how you feel about RU then? Just dont BUY into Rutgers right now.BTW I guess need to start checking your underdog POW!

GL bro

Moot- Thanks bro! I am starting to really like USF here. This Rutgers offense hasnt done that much and I am really liking the UNder 25.5 RU team total. GL

Pags11-

you are a true degenerate my friend. In all seriousnessI think its great you watch all the games or as many as you can get your hands. Luckily for me I geta good enough feel these days by backtracking- reading drive logs, the play by play and boxscores. I think the way I do it for me personally helps me stay unbiased. You still have know the teams but for as well as I do In NCAAF there are so many people who know more about it then I do.

GL

I should be around for another hour or so...leaving for South Beach today!

BTW- If I ever get into a 'heated' discussion with anyone here and most know this trust me I want to be RIGHT but my goal is to get all the angles out and not have copycat posts. I think Iam creative and can generate some deep indivual thought! So me talking about being right with UCF or any game isnt me rubbing it into anyone just validation of my thought process.

My 1st posted college week was dreadful. I think SAT I kept in relatively small in size but did well nearly 40 units I think. NFL had some good plays and some bad ones but made it back with Denver and NO to get to the plus side. So even with mistakes I think I am +50 units maybe 60 in football since Sat. The goal is to outsmart the bookmakers....I relish the opportunity to do so thats why I do this. :spank:
 
valid arguments csan't argue with them reay, but value is with rutgers at -3 yet again....-6 though you might be onto something maybe we can both win this again if we get better lines
 
Inspekedah-

We seem to agree to disagree. You said yesterday paying underachieving teams will hurt me. Well UCF clearly covered that game as well as outplayed them.

Rice is a beast I agree but agains rushing yardage is a beautiful thing but remember those ATL FALCONS. Well they need to transalte rushing yards into POINTS and without a pasing game that is tough. 21 points against UNC...??Well give them a pass. You saw that Rutgers game and were impressed by what vs Illinois. Illinois looked so good awful they were clueless. Bewteen blocked punts and picks they gave RU pints and it was over quickly. Ohio U is pretty decent and what did they do vs them. Teel 6 of 16 with 3 picks and Ohio twice had the ball starting inside the RU 20 and couldnt put anything on the board.

Schiano is a good coach but players WIN games , Coaches only lose them IMO. Its a very true statement about RU? Have they been coasting or are they just not that good.

How do you expect to score when your Qb has a 4 -14 TD to INT ratio? You cant be one dimensonal unless your WV or a powerhouse and RU aint that.

I agree this is a huge game or RU. Many of my friends are RU alum and are relishing the improvement. I am not saying RU is a bad team just not as good a sthey credit they get.....#23 in the nation? You miss some of my point with UNC. ye sthe Tar Heel splayed well...well enough to win had they not fumbled at the 1 yd line. VaTech comes in and smokes them , Furmna comes in and goes 60minutes with them, they go to Clemson and get spanked. What are we giving any team credit for playing well and winning @ UNC? They stink! Losing by 6 @ Kansas is more impressive then winning by 6 @ UNC. As I said the key is they were UNDERDOGS ...

USF only 2.5 dog @ RU last year and smoked them due to turnovers. RU has heart and came back but they dont have that type of Hart(QB Ryan) anymore. Down 2 TDS this year how are they moving the ball?

USF offense scares me with lack or a true runner so its all on Grohe's shoulders but I see him passing the tests jsut a bad mistake or break.

Game should be a PK IMO.

keep it coming folks!
 
Troy Stacks:cheers:


Oh and I forgot to Thank Big Al! Hopefully by Friday we have this game figured out. Not really all that interested in digging into the Auburn and TCU games especially if they dont have ther RB's which sounds unlikely. I know one thingcome NBA season we are going to do damage just like the ole days at the place.....what's was that forum's name again?? Slips my mind:beer: Iknow I am banned there though
 
I think Rutgers is the better team, but I think we could be looking at a huge upset. I see a possible let down after the 1st Top 25 Ranking in years. Could easily be one of those "out as fast as you got in" deals. I'm glad to see the Knights finally get some in state talent and building a program, but this could be a huge let down. I have not played this one yet, but have been eyeing it all week.
 
Agree with the out as fast as they got in comment. This is such huge deal for the school you wonder what the players are thinking. Trust me this school gets ahead of itself. I played basketball during the summer with a guy who worked for Rutgers University. We both were kinda laughing at the Brian Leonard for Heisman campaign they started. I think they got him a billboard in the city or something. I wonder if the RU adminstartion is talking undefeated season Or National Championship now..I say that half seriously!

good points smola! GL
 
SportsNut said:
Troy Stacks:cheers:


Oh and I forgot to Thank Big Al! Hopefully by Friday we have this game figured out. Not really all that interested in digging into the Auburn and TCU games especially if they dont have ther RB's which sounds unlikely. I know one thingcome NBA season we are going to do damage just like the ole days at the place.....what's was that forum's name again?? Slips my mind:beer: Iknow I am banned there though
Click to expand...

I agree about the Thursday games. The lines have moved so much in those games that I have litle interest. The key when they start throwing out all these games during the week is to avoid playing them all.

Great discussion thread fellas for both sides. The discussion has been riveting the past few days.

Thats the plan Nut statting in about 35 days:cheers:
 
Agree smo1a. It's certainly a spot that the Rutger's program isn't used to handling. Classic ml angle play if you have the cajones.
 
How do you expect to score when your Qb has a 4 -14 TD to INT ratio? You cant be one dimensonal unless your WV or a powerhouse and RU aint that.

SportsNut - While I agree that Teel hasn't played very well this season, let's look at his stats & TD/INT ratio so far this year.

@ UNC - 14/20 for 146 yards 0TD/0INT

vs. Illinois - 14/24 for 145 yards 1TD/1INT

vs. Ohio - 6/16 for 83 yards 0TD/3INT

vs. Howard - 9/16 133 yards 1TD/1INT


So, Teel has a 2-5 TD/INT ratio this season, but three of those picks came in one game. Take away the Ohio game and his numbers are very modest, but efficient. In his other three matchups so far this year, Teel has shown good command over the offense, and was smart with the football. Considering Rutgers hasn't needed to throw the ball yet this season, I'm not too worried about his mediocre stats. It's almost like knocking on Pat White for having such a low pass yards/game average.

That aside, both defenses have been stout against the run. The key difference here is, Rutgers has a legitimate running game. Over half of the Bulls rushing yards have come from their QB (and this is against inferior opponents too). Without Grothe, USF wouldn't have been able to rush for anything against Florida International. Wow.

Now let's look at USF's QB. Grothe hasn't exactly impressed this year either with some VERY lackluster performances...

vs. McNeese St. - 9/13 for 168 yards 2TD/0INT

vs. Florida Int. - 15/28 174 yards 1TD/2INT

@ UCF - 21/31 for 302 yards 3TD/1INT

@ Kansas - 17/32 192 yards 0TD/2INT

Not stellar numbers if you ask me. Take away the UCF game, and he has modest numbers like Teel. I do think he's a better QB, but not by much (he's got good wheels, so that definitely gives him an edge there).

If you look into the UCF game, you'll notice that USF couldn't run for beans. The reason Grothe looked so good is because they were forced to throw the ball to move the chains. So if we're talking about one dimensional offenses, both teams seem to be one dimensional (don't let average yards/game fool you).

Of course, this is all just my opinion, but I think Rutgers will continue to run the ball with success, and pass on the rare occassion they need to. The one thing I would say in favor of USF is that both Florida Int. & UCF are rivalry games, so to speak. That could be part of the reason USF struggled against both...but the offense has not impressed me, whereas Rutgers has blown out everybody but UNC. Despite turnovers galore, they still roughed up the Ohio Bobcats.

My prediction...

Rutgers 27
USF 17

GL fellas. :shake:
 
Atzec- Nice response. I feel a rant though

What I meant was he is 4 TD and 14 Ints for his career. You are correct 2/5 this year and 2/9 last year. He hasnt shown much improvement was the point. Now after losing 2 WR's already this year he just lost his best Wideout Turner vs Howard and they are now depleted at the position. Which theoritically makes the passing game weaker.

I really hate to be rude and I am not trying to be but it could come off like that but I dont really buy into your arguement. Its the same ole points Rutgers blewout bad teams and there running backs are great. You cant rely on stats accumulated versus bad teams IMO. Lines are just as important as stats. They had nice rushing stats but some damn soft lines.

We know the South Fla offense is one dimensional. The great thing about that is they arent the favorite and they dont have to win by a certain amount. I am more concerned about RU offense versus the USF defense.You have to score when playing as ROAD CHALK and RU hasnt shown they can IMO. All you have to is disprove the favorite and the dog becomes the play in my eyes. There are only two choices right?

RU has shown what on offense? Especially if the opposing teams pathetic offense isnt giving them points. Trust me Ohio u and Illinois will be bottomfeeders in offensive rankings

It's clear that Matt Grohe is the USF offense and thats a concern. The kid is a FROSH with alot of weight on his shoulders. The key for me was his performance @ UCF amd @ Kansas. The KU game doesnt show that he took the offense 77 yards on the opening drive but they went for it on 4th down and failed. To me its mighty impressive a Freshman QB can go to a big school like KU who has a good defense and just drive the ball without a running game. Thats a helluva alot more then Mike Teel has done. Remember 4 TDS in Teels longer career and Grohe had 3 in his 1st road game.

I continue to think for some reason people miss that rushing yards are great but if you cant throw the ball you cant convert third downs. If you cant convert 3rd downs and sustain drives you wont score TDs but settle for FGS. My approach is not what one team can do BUT what the ROAD fav cant do. I have been saying the past few nites. ATL great rushing numbers but how come just 34 points in 2 games? Michael Vick and the passing game. Last nite great Frosh runner for SoMiss but they cant move the ball consistently thru the air IMO. What happened with the SoMiss offense last nite? Couldnt do anything unless it was off a momentum changing play against UCF offense. Now I dont like the fact USF really doesnt have any RB's..but again they are the underdog. And again 21 points @ UNC or 17 at home vs Ohio or 19 vs Illinois doesnt show me much.

The fact some people keep glossing over is North Carolina and Illinois are pathetic BIG CONFERENCE schools. These teams are getting whipped every week and Rutgers didnt play that well versus them. It seems to be missed that @ UNC they were up 21-10 and with NC on the 1yd line the Heels fumbled. That would have made it 21-16,17,or 18 depending on the PAT decision. Then RU doesnt do anything on offense and punt it back. UNC after just missing a score goes down the field and scores a TD to make a 5pt game. The RU punts again and UNC gets the ball to the RU 29 but there is an INT and a 21-16 final. This wasnt some dominanting performance. Look at what Vatech and Clemson did to Carolina...beatings! It was a narrow win versus a bad team. Granted in years past they may have blown that type of game. They are UNTESTED!

If you saw the Illini game you KNOW that all Illinois did was shoot itself in the foot starting with a blocked punt for a TD and then bad passes and a pick 6. It was 14-0 and RU didnt do anything on offense. Please dont praise the RU defense either cause these programs suck and there offense's suck. Just look at what Illinois does on the road typically...

@ Purdue Lost 37-3 , @ Ohio State lost 40-2 , @Indiana 36-13 the Hoosiers are the team closest to them in the Big Ten, @ Iowa 35-7. They last decent game they played under Zook was @ Cal were they lost 35-20. Illinois is repeatedly embarrassed on the road and they only managed 13 against Indiana. It was iffy they would crack 10 vs Rutgers from the getgo. Big deal instead of 10 they got blanked. How good is RU well last year Indiana was home and won 36-13 as 7 point favs . This year RU is home and they lay -10.5 and win 33-0! That tells me something when a sperad is so close..

Take awaythe Ohio game? Thats the only decent defense he played and he failed miserably! Thats my point. The other 3 games are modest? He played UNC , Illinois and Howard and all he could do was 2 TDs and 2 Ints with a 146 ,145 ,133 yards...I know someone will say they didnt have to throw...come'on.

He played in relief @ McNeese St and it was his first college game! They were scoreless till he took over in the 2nd and finished with 41points. I would absolutely agree that he didnt play well vs Fla Intl but that isnt such a bad program...they almost won @ Maryland this weekend. Not to mention his 1st careet start as a FROSH. FIU is probably better then the RU opponents outside of UNC. The key is they were 20 point favorites against FIU. Thats the same number for the FIU game @ Maryalnd!. That line opened at 20 and closed at 20 IF it was so obvious that South Fla stunk why didnt they pound that line down? Simple cause going in expecattaions were USF could win by 3TDS. A young QB had a bad day thats why you dont lay 20- poinst with unproven QB's at home or lay it with them on the road especially to back a public fav.

I cant believe you are saying USF cant run for beans. No kidding they graduated Andre Hall and both his replacements are gone. One back got hurt in the opener and another suspended. USF doesnt even have a RB! They do but you get my point, they really dont. That game against UCF got him Big East Player of the Week I believe. Another key was USF was favored an won on the road with a young QB!

Now @ Kansas the numbers dont look good but thats a very solid defense and tough place to play. Go check KU at home last season. They started sloppy this year but I believe were without the star corner first 2 games. Playing @ KU is much tougher then playing @ UNC. USF got so much respect they were only 3 pt dogs. Rutgers was +4.5 @ UNC.

We are all dealing in opinions its just we have to be objective. USF struggled against both because they have a young QB who they heavily rely on. Though Grohe did NOT struggle @UCF he struggled in his 1st college start vs FIU.

Again who has Rutgers played? They didnt blowout UNC so they smoked Illinois and Howard at home ....you have to be kidding! They didnt blowout Ohio U they won 24-7 , didnt score in the 2nd Half and had a defensive TD. Ohio U is a pathetic offense like I tried to explain and had the ball TWICE inside the Rutgers 20 and scored 0 points due to a missed FG and INT in the 2nd Half. How does that game look at 24-17?

You say they pass when they need to ....INCORRECT. They lead 30-0 vs Illi but how many did they score in the 2nd Half? Answer 3! If this rushing attack is so good how come they couldnt score 1 time in the 2nd H? I see big programs with bug leads at half jusr un over teams. Hpow come RU cant? Illi defense isnt good where they trying that hard down 30-0 or is the RU running game overrated. They led 24-7 @ half vs Ohio U how come they had scoreless 2nd Half? Teel has many opportunities to move the chains but couldnt sustain a drive and what happened with that great running game. It should be able to just run at will. How ocme UNC kept getting chances to comeback why could RU just run out the clock? Okay cause RU coulnt make 1st downs!

Its not a personal attack. Its just the same arguement ever RU backer gives. No one has addressed how RU didnt travel well last year , how RU hasnt had a tough opponent. USF played good defense IMO last year holding WV to 28 and Lville to 14. This isnt Pat WHite @ WV and Steve Slayton. Teel cant scramble or run like White....not the same thing and WVU ground game did it versus Georgia...

I like USF defense the most here. I dont liek having to trust a freshman QB in his 1st conference game. Problem is I dont see him failing much so far.Again lines are the KEY...USF was only +3 to Kansas who I happen to think is a tough win at home. Also USF beat them @ Rutger slast year and teh Knights were -2.5 pt favs ...why a year later on teh road with a wosre QB ar they -4? I am trying to say this team isnt as good as last years!

Enough I RAMBLE! GL all more!
 
Just remember my rants are personal in nature. I yell and scream because I am trying to open your eyes to my points. I may be wrong but I feel have questions that should be addressed. GL all
 
lol SportsNut...I thought you knew bud. I would never take any capping related discussion/debate personal. We're all trying to beat the books right? I'm half asleep, so I'll read over your post more thoroughly and get back to you tomorrow. You do make great points. :cheers:
 
I am always half asleep! Glad to see ya.

Julmiste was basically on a short leash entering camp but in the end although some say Grohe clearly out played him thye chose his experience. He got hurt in the 2nd Q vs McNeese and that was the excuse they needed to get Grohe in there and he has run with the job. Hope that helps moose.
 
Thanks Mista and Huntdog ! GL as well.

dfresh thats basically my feeling but expecting them to win! GL
 
Recap-

Rutgers
1- In my opinion they have played a ridiculously easily schedule and worse have had weak spreads. Which means they werent laying big wood against bad teams and were catching points to bad teams away. Yes, I do believe USF has played a slightily tougher schedule partially because they have traveled twice.I would say FIU and @UCF are better then Illinois and Ohio U in New Brunswick. Losing by 6 @ Kansas is probably tougher then winning by 5 @ UNC.
2- Cant expect Mike Teel to make plays in the passing game. On top of which he loses another WR. So that gives you a one dimensonal offense and the defense can focus on stopping the run. If you lay points on the road IMO you need to be balanced offensively and this team is NOT.
3- How is Rutgers a team that was -2.5 pt favs last year at home now laying 4 on the road to th eteam that defeated them??
4- As much as I respect how well the defense has played IMO the offenses have simply been overmatched. Also not just by RU but any school they travel to.

USF-
1- They dont have a running back that generates a running game. However unlike RU there OFFENSE is not one dimensional due to QB MAtt Grohe. You have to respect both facets of his game or he will beat you with one of them.
2- Can Grohe continue to improve? Being a redshirt Frosh I believe so.

I truly believe if you look at this game objectively the game should be a PK em. Remember that RU was dogged at UNC, that last year these teams were considered even to USF being skightily better. RU hasnt improved all that much( excpt if this defense is for real whuch going back to UNC is a ?) and while USF lost Andre Hall it switched from being dependent on him to dependent on Grohe a huge upgrade of Julmiste.

Should be a great game and this is huge for RU they must prove they are for real. They have talent BUT no tests.....

Playing USF but waiting for the final RU push tmrw and ML as well. Also adding the UNDE team total 22.5 for RU.

GL and let shope we got this right. I did have BYU correct tonite and would have pounded it had not there been so many conflicting reports on the TCU RB's returning and BYU's Beck . I felt that line again was way off...lets hope we see some RU cash pushing it up!

Good Nite and Good Luck...
 
great discussion.
imo, the line is jsut about right...so much so that i can't play a side. gun to the head...would prolly take south florida, mostly as a fade.
but i did take the over in this game. agree south florida's offense is much better than they showed agaisnt kansas. jsut see both teams not having a problem putting up 21 to 24 a piece, if not more.
 
GL Yanks! I just feel that lines needs to have a trail and there is no reason why RU gets soft lines all year and when they get ranked ....INFLATION IMO. WIthout getting clearer better I dont see why a team who was small favs at home travels and become as bigger fav away.....this is how we measuer RU...sort of like ATL on Monday.

USF +4 -110 (6x)
USF ML +150 (1.5x)
Under 22.5 Rutgers +106 (1.5x)
 
excuse me ML was +163 had the earlier number in my head when I was typing.

Tonit e we find out RU contender or pretender....
 
is it safe to say that Rutgers plays with a little extra momentum tonight being ranked for the first time in 30 years??????
 
Good health with the plays tonight SportsNut.

I disagree with your final outcomes, but the discussions are great and allow us to make our own decision. Thank You.
 
Hile- Thats hard to say. Last year after becoming bowl eligible USF rolled into town and beat them. Motivation is always hard to determine. Two thing shappen tonite IMO the first being is we vastily UNDERRATED RU or we vastily OVERRATED Them. Based on where they have come from and who they have played coupled with the LINES they have received I dont think I have underrated them. Lets see though Itrult feel a correct line taking out public perception should be a PKem.

Fondy - Hey to have all information pointing to one side is useless. As a fellow capper who loves to disperse his money all over trhe card you know better then anyone its never abouyt game. I fell confident going since I have already spotte dbad lines in NE on Sunday , in NO on Monday , @ UCF on Tuesday , and even with BYU last nite.....yesterday means nothing though.

I just have a general rule regarding road chalk and its based on offensive quality. If you fail to make enough plays on offense you should be cautio0us about laying points on the road. I fell into the Auburn trap yesterdaty but a perfect example.

Thanks Nick! GL to you as well! I found it funny the spread moved and the ML actually didnt or slightily improved...
 
Thanks BAR. Didnt get to see much of the game except the 4th quarter and had a feeling that how it was going to end. Actually watching it now.

Like I said I know where the lines should be and that game was PKem and played out as such.

GL tmrw
 
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