Man, that's a question I should know the answer to, but off-hand I don't know it. I lean toward . . no?
I also agree with you about the knockout stage, but here's why I lean over here.
I haven't seen ANYTHING from the Dutch defense yet in this thing. They're not built to play defense, which is fine, but that means they need to score.
Again, fine, they just have to do it.
Normally goals slow here because teams get more conservative, they score once and go into clog-the-middle mode. But the Dutch don't know how to do that, not from what I've seen.
Meanwhile, Russia, to me, doesn't look like Romania, with defense first, second, and third in their priority list.
While I think they may be more traditional, and that if they do score first, they will look to win 1-0. But first, I don't think they score first, and second, even if they do, that just means more offense from the Dutch.
An over here does need Russia, I think, but I think Russia has enough offense and enough comittment--against a bad enough defense--to get a goal here.
Now, if they win 1-0 or draw 1-1 they can take my money because they'll have earned it. More than likely, though, I see 2-1 here at least.
Other games, however, I agree with you, it'll probably get tighter, though only Germany right now looks to me to be playing good defense.
Portugal 2 - 3 
Germany 
Croatia vs 
Turkey 
Netherlands vs 
Russia 
Spain vs 
Italy 
