Run Line System

[BigRaktor]

I wanted to pick everyone's brain about a system I'm considering. I'm sure some of you have seen this one over the years and thought I'd ask for thoughts and opinions.

The play is to take the Fav RL and the Dog Alt RL both at -1.5 assuming certain criteria:

1. both of the teams has no more than 3 1 run games in their last 10
2. both teams average less than 30% of 1 run games for the year
3. both plays are +145 or better
4. both pitchers average less than 50% (for now) of 1 run games

The biggest con to the system is that you would have to win roughly 6 matchups to make up for every 1 run game.

I wanted to see what the CTG Brain Trust thinks of this idea...

Today's Plays on this system would be (% of 1 run games):

Oak -1.5 +155 (33%) - borderline play
KC -1.5 +175 (21.88%)

Hou -1.5 +145 (25.8%)
Cin -1.5 +195 (25.0%)

Pit -1.5 +175 (23.3%)
ChC -1.5 +145 (20.7%)

Col -1.5 +175 (28.1%)
StL -1.5 +160 (26.7%)

NYM -1.5 +160 (16.1%)
SFO -1.5 +180 (32.2%) - borderline play

Feedback on this would be appreciated!!

:cheers: and BOL on your plays

 

[G-Man]

Arent you risking 200 for every play? If you win 1 of 3 games you still lose money. Therefore you have to win 2 of 3 everytime. You are obviously betting each game to win by 2 runs or more, with an automatic loser each time. If they finish 1 run apart, you lose twice..

By most of the examples above, the best you can do for your 200 dollar bet is win 45 to 95 dollars?

 

[BigRaktor]

G-Man...true, you would have an automatic loser in every bet. I'm structuring this based on the statistics. Take the Pit/ChC matchup for instance...more than 7 of 10 games for both teams this year have a margin of 2 or more runs. As I said, the biggest downside is th number of W's you'd need to make up for a dual L. As with any system, its purpose is to make money and minimize risk...its not perfect, and I might scrap it after a day but it came to mind and thought I'd ask around about it...

 

[G-Man]

G-Man...true, you would have an automatic loser in every bet. I'm structuring this based on the statistics. Take the Pit/ChC matchup for instance...more than 7 of 10 games for both teams this year have a margin of 2 or more runs. As I said, the biggest downside is th number of W's you'd need to make up for a dual L. As with any system, its purpose is to make money and minimize risk...its not perfect, and I might scrap it after a day but it came to mind and thought I'd ask around about it...

How about both teams plus 1.5 runs?

 

[BigRaktor]

Maybe it would be better to stick to teams that have average under 25% of 1 run games and have only had 2 1 run games in the last 10. The other big factor is the pitchers.

 

[BigRaktor]

If it was both teams +1.5 run, the juice would be horrendous...you'd be praying for 1 run games. I'm trying to identify the situations where a team fits a certain mold of not playing in close games. This will give me a chance to make money on the matchup regardless of who wins as long as its not a 1 run game. That is why I picked the -1.5 RL for each side...you get money on both sides and play w/out juice. The downside is that if you lose both sides you get bent over...

 

[BigRaktor]

I'm going to test it out tonight w/ the following:

Mets -1.5 +160
SFO -1.5 +180
STL -1.5 +155
Col -1.5 +175
Hou -1.5 +140
Cin -1.5 +195
Pit -1.5 +175
Cubs -1.5 +130

All plays are risking 1 unit

Summary for the day (based on matchups) - 2-2 -2.9 units

 

[G-Man]

GL it's an interesting possibility...

 

[BigRaktor]

Didn't work out so great yesterday...one bright spot is I screwed up and had a double play on Oak RL so that makes up for it financially. Going to keep tracking this idea though...but I'm feeling it might need some tweaks.

 

[EAGLES2828]

all you need is yr eyes...fuck the system. watch the game and pick fav or a dog.

 

[BigRaktor]

Col/Stl hit yesterday, and I like this one not to be close again...

Col -1.5 +205
StL -1.5 +155

Both risking 1.5 units

 

[G-Man]

Col/Stl hit yesterday, and I like this one not to be close again...

Col -1.5 +205
StL -1.5 +155

Both risking 1.5 units

GL today...

 

[T-Squared]

BigRaktor -- I've been playing RLs lately, especially parlays, and they've been working out pretty well. Generally, I like betting on AL -- better opportunity for runs in AL -- home faves with a decent pitcher going that can get me to at least plus money at -1.5. All the better if the team is coming off a loss and has a little more motivation.

Yesterday played a couple: Hit Mil, NYY, Det, winning 126 on a $20 bet; lost LAA, Ariz two-teamer, laying $20 to win 123.

I can't say it's very scientific, but I think the odds are you can pick a couple or three faves at home in a higher-scoring league often enough to make up for the losses. I assume I'll miss a couple or three in a row, then hit one. Only been playing this way a couple weeks but it got me out of a hole to plus money.

I haven't made plays yet today, but ones I'm looking at are: Cincy +150, Cubs +160, Angels +165. It's 20 to win $324 in a parlay. More NL teams than I like, but there's reason enough to play each team. Another I'd consider using in the mix would be Yanks, with Mussina, at even money. Maybe a couple of two-team parlays.

Don't mean to ramble, but I'm curious where you got the percentages for one-run games by each team. That's a stat I'd be interested in perusing.

Thanks and GL.

TT

 

[BigRaktor]

T-Squared...I just used the covers.com matchups. Right now its a manual process of counting the games by hand then dividing by the total number of games played. I'm going to have to put a spreadsheet together just to keep track of it on a daily basis...it will be easier to pick out the teams that meet the initial criteria.

BOL w/ your parlay :cheers:

 

[BigRaktor]

STL comes through on the RL

System now 3-2 -2.1 units

Adding for 1.5 units each
Pit -1.5 +210
Cub -1.5 +160
Cle -1.5 +160
LAA -1.5 +165

 

[T-Squared]

Thanks BigRak .. wound up playing cubs-reds, 20 for 104 and yanks-angels, 20 for 86 .. we'll see how it goes.

 

[BigRaktor]

Not so good last night...Chubs can't get one more run w/ bases loaded and 1 out, and the Angels get a 2 run shot by Kendry Morales - yes Kendry Morales.

Sitting at 3-4 -8.1 units and this is starting to be not such a great idea...I'll let this one die

BOL everyone