RSW Discussion
- Thread starter B.A.R.
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twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Huge game, should be a good one
Hit CAL over 4.5 .. think its still at DK, heavy odds but like the number alot .. held my nose when I started looking into em but actually looks like a real turnaround team .. could be my favorite coaching change ditching Musgrave's NFL offense for a legit college OC in Spavital .. and strong crew with him OL coach Bloesch was UNT's OC LY .. TE's coach Plough was Boise's OC LY.. im sure plenty of teams have OD'd on OC's but the sitch looks good to me they aren't co-OC's w Spav but its alot of good offensive minds .. Plough was fired by Boise early on after a couple ugly games w Bachmeier so maybe easy pickup ... Bloesch woulda had some good options as a proven OL coach, OC and somehow was qualified to do the QB's LY at UNT and Aune and the O had a great run.. Think good move by Cal and and Stan ditching the bulky NFL playbooks, 5 years too late for Stan, roster is THROTTLED .. Cal's roster looks in pretty good shape.. Saw enough of Sam Jackson in the spring game to say he's a gamer and think a good fit for what Spav is installing .. Have a good WR in Hunter and add a couple, Dorch was a big prospect in a deep unit at Miss St think he'll be a hit .. RB Ott is legit special the Cal insiders like what's behind him .. there's at least a guy or two to like on D in each unit and alot comes back no glaring holes.. the D wasn't the road block LY and still should see some improvement from them ..
Schedule with a few likely wins baked in .. the thing to like is there's a few really nice spots to pull upsets .. Cal shows up every year to their their big non con games been doing that for like 10 years now often their best game of the year, def was LY ... think very good shot to surprise Auburn at home .. Oreg State got big games straddling their roadie to the Bay .. USC maybe worst spot on the CFB calendar off ND and Utah on the road w Wash on deck, Cal off a bye will deliver their strongest goodbye punch .. and same for UCLA, off USC and unless they need a win for the CCG its a sure thing dead spot, maybe last game of the night, empty rose bowl on thxgiving weekend think its probably Cal's for the taking .. nearly did LY ..
Schedule with a few likely wins baked in .. the thing to like is there's a few really nice spots to pull upsets .. Cal shows up every year to their their big non con games been doing that for like 10 years now often their best game of the year, def was LY ... think very good shot to surprise Auburn at home .. Oreg State got big games straddling their roadie to the Bay .. USC maybe worst spot on the CFB calendar off ND and Utah on the road w Wash on deck, Cal off a bye will deliver their strongest goodbye punch .. and same for UCLA, off USC and unless they need a win for the CCG its a sure thing dead spot, maybe last game of the night, empty rose bowl on thxgiving weekend think its probably Cal's for the taking .. nearly did LY ..
^^ Think there's actually some value in either fading the upper crust of the PAC this year or playing on some lower teams .. obvi alot to like in the profiles of USC, Oreg, Utes, Wash and seems Oreg State is rightfully joining the convo as a potential contender .. But books must think everything below is an assured win given the elites are all rockin BIG RSW's and slim champ odds .. UCLA is all but forgotten at 16-1 for the conference but even their win total is 8.5 .. cover the RSW and just pull the right upset I think 10 wins likely puts them in the CCG .. I grabbed em 16-1 but almost inclined to fade the win total ..
Wazzoo anointed the king of the duds it seems .. their RSW was my big pac play LY at 4.5 and 5 saw Cam Ward play at The Word secret ultra gamer weapon ended up clearing the win totals but he was pretty frustrating to watch .. I'm less familiar w them this time but 6.5 seems a bit rich.. clearly a team that can pull an upset, the Palouse is a solid HFA but unfortunately only big conf home gm for them vs Oreg State comes early on and think its favorable Beavs w Utes on deck but not a super killer by any means ..
Talked about Cal above and quickly becoming my favorite potential surprise team TY but I got Arizona over 4.5 too, can't say the Wildcats D is gunna do anything but hurt them again but the O looks ready to rock, i'd be surprised if they don't take at least 1 big scalp this year ..
I'm really not in the know on ASU, Colo or Stan, scanned the rosters Stan looks like zero wins .. Sac State was a great FCS team LY, Tree bagged their HC Troy Taylor, no idea if 'Sac is Back' this year but best believe Stanford is circled in the red ink .. although Stan 100% has them circled too lol .. the one thing for Stan I liked is they got Justin Lamsen from Cuse and I actually did like his spring game he was wayyyy ahead of Del Rio .. so maybe 50/50 shot at an 1-11 start .. lol
ASU and Colorado both new coaches and full on portal teams very tough to read .. ASU bringing Borquette off the bench after Herm was fired beats Wash .. one of the biggest shockers of last year .. I'm locked on TCU -20 in the opener vs the Buffs think its a natty revenge blood bath but just can't say they won't play a good game and catch a team slippin ..
Wazzoo anointed the king of the duds it seems .. their RSW was my big pac play LY at 4.5 and 5 saw Cam Ward play at The Word secret ultra gamer weapon ended up clearing the win totals but he was pretty frustrating to watch .. I'm less familiar w them this time but 6.5 seems a bit rich.. clearly a team that can pull an upset, the Palouse is a solid HFA but unfortunately only big conf home gm for them vs Oreg State comes early on and think its favorable Beavs w Utes on deck but not a super killer by any means ..
Talked about Cal above and quickly becoming my favorite potential surprise team TY but I got Arizona over 4.5 too, can't say the Wildcats D is gunna do anything but hurt them again but the O looks ready to rock, i'd be surprised if they don't take at least 1 big scalp this year ..
I'm really not in the know on ASU, Colo or Stan, scanned the rosters Stan looks like zero wins .. Sac State was a great FCS team LY, Tree bagged their HC Troy Taylor, no idea if 'Sac is Back' this year but best believe Stanford is circled in the red ink .. although Stan 100% has them circled too lol .. the one thing for Stan I liked is they got Justin Lamsen from Cuse and I actually did like his spring game he was wayyyy ahead of Del Rio .. so maybe 50/50 shot at an 1-11 start .. lol
ASU and Colorado both new coaches and full on portal teams very tough to read .. ASU bringing Borquette off the bench after Herm was fired beats Wash .. one of the biggest shockers of last year .. I'm locked on TCU -20 in the opener vs the Buffs think its a natty revenge blood bath but just can't say they won't play a good game and catch a team slippin ..
Oh thx bud yeah pretty dead over there .. much more vibrant here .. we'll see how the pre ssn pickin goes got a few in the bag already .. try to get what I can locked in before the mags come out .. nerve racking playing anything this early but if I wait to see if Phil put a thumbs up on an idea I have then might be too late ..
Went ahead and hit Oreg State under 8.5 too .. steep odds but if im reading some of the down ballot teams right then there's just no quit in their schedule almost every week in conference is a tussle and rough spots all over .. might call it a day for the PAC but the other one is Wash under 9.5 .... makin quite an assumption about how easy the winning will be at that number lol friggin ASU backup QB beat em LY got their asses kicked by UCLA and 3 more within a score .. i'd count on USC and Oregon to be better and think they win .. can't say that about Wash .. think the actual bet could be that they won't go 10 for 10 vs the rest of the field ..
Ok hit Wash U9.5 fan duel had it .. put notes in my blanket thread if interested.. talked myslef into it while writing above lol think they prob have to go 10-0 in the other games for me to lose and also got to thinking about how bad for them Pennix reinjuring anything would be .. think he's out one game next year the win total is in jeopardy, maybe Morris is capable but they don't have a run game and the D was not particularly good LY either .. not rooting for it but think massive risk with him, more than any other team I can think of w a high win total ..
on your note yeah think we saw it with UT and OU the last 2 years nobody helping them make a graceful exit .. been a few big wins but nothing's been easy.. I'd expect the same for them and the PAC friends this, USC and Texas could obvi romp but nobody taking their week off .. I took the big odds for UCLA for the conf on the off chance they can put a big year together but think I said above the win total is one I'd definitely an under .... also kindof a gambit for UCLA and OU neither has the roster built up for the B10 or SEC and would say whenever the champ game is out of reach they'd be smart to really figure out what they have deep down the roster .. Venables already said more/less that a bunch of true freshman will be contributing this year .. maybe a spot to fade if their CCG bubbles burst.. could backfire since both have 5 star QB's but yeah easy call to shoo along anyone who won't be around next year for the big move ..
Looking at that last one...
9.5 a good number (the posted #s at top of the thread are all BOL).
I see this miss UCLA but you I'd even group in Utah with the SC and Oregon games just due to this position on the schedule (home after two road game and off USC game).
They are definitely getting a lot of hype. Some are low key calling them a MNC comtender. I like Penix and he'll have a good year but this is still the 3rd best team in conference IMO (this far out, from initial capping).
Edit: Too bad MSU lost Keon and Thorne. A potential noon game (early start for UW) against a vet QB and big play receiver would have been a potential spot as well. I can't imagine the MSU secondary is any worse than the last two years, but who knows?
Just getting back to this....yeah I just have a hard time with any confidence (up or down) on doing anything with the RSW at all. To me if you want to play Purdue one way or another I'd hit them either at alt totals under at +$ if you can find them or if one is high on the Boilers I'd rather sprinkle some on the B1G west. Too many unknowns and what has to be a huge amount of variance in that schedule.
Gun to the head at this point if I had to play 5.5 one direction would be under but not with any confidence. With the schedule and the complete roster flip I think the books reasonably could've dropped the total down even lower (expected 4 or 4.5).
They are still waiting on NCAA to grant another year to a DII all american corner and have another CB from Ole Miss on campus so at least Walters is still trying to beef up the CB room a bit (obviously needs too)
Edit - pretty sure they got Brown committed today but nothing official mentioned yet. CB room looks quite a bit better with that addition (if it's true)
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survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
Like this one a lot, another guy i respect really likes Sam Jackson too. For me personally I'm likely just going to back them in the spots you mentioned instead of taking the RSW but I certainly like the play
@B.A.R. yeah Fan duel had the only reasonable U9.5 in the -130's but steeper today -144 .. Caesars at -150 is pricey .. bol at 9 -115 .. 9 is the right number at least till we know more .. pass games is elite and not an unfair talking point to speculate UW romping all the way thru the schedule but they need MAJOR improvements to do that and I think significant ones to like em to hit 10 wins .. the Pass D was horrible last year .. run game not reliable to take over if pennix got in a jam .. those are the areas I'll be looking at closer .. for now if I got the sense UW had all that buttoned up then I'd see huskies as a monster and def pass on a U9.5 .. im speculating but feel good that DeBoer won't risk anything w Pennix by letting him scramble around ... no change in the co-DC's, can't expect the pass D to be that bad again but they're a long way from it being helpful .. they did a good job surviving a few scares last year but tougher pac this year IMO and I like some of the lower level teams too .. think they just find themselves in a few dog fights and one surprise loss it'll be tough to hit 10 wins again .. none of the other top PAC teams seem to be so reliant on one area, more complete .. good passing, rushing, QB scramblers, even see a few reliable D's .. so just easier for me to pick on UW but yeah entirely possible im wrong and they rollllll .. .. PAC really looks like fun this year ..
Yeah BOL is always half to full game worse than FD DK and such on these RSWs seems. To me gotta have 9.5 to get the proper reward if they do slip up. Tie not enough to me.
BetMGM with their ssn wins and the conf futures out .. and maybe good spot to have I didn't use em much LY and they actually let us make a decent bet .. don't move the numbers around in a haste after .. they'll sometimes have the best number available by just a shade and they don't move the numbers in a big haste like others do so can actually share a bet and its still around after posting .. but yeah they license a big name like MGM then they're fighting with barstool over whose jumping in the pool last .. lol.. weak ..
I don't see anything particularly interesting in the season win totals at least no really unique win total numbers, couple of em might have the best odds though .. im on G-Tech over 4.5 and their +125 are slightly better than the other shops .... peep GT's spring game if ya haven't they look like fun and still wheelin in a few dudes .. Couple of the longer shot futures were decent, TCU 20-1 and Miami 25-1 are about the best odds out there .. Wash at +475 looked like the best deal by a little .. good luck!
I don't see anything particularly interesting in the season win totals at least no really unique win total numbers, couple of em might have the best odds though .. im on G-Tech over 4.5 and their +125 are slightly better than the other shops .... peep GT's spring game if ya haven't they look like fun and still wheelin in a few dudes .. Couple of the longer shot futures were decent, TCU 20-1 and Miami 25-1 are about the best odds out there .. Wash at +475 looked like the best deal by a little .. good luck!
Awesome!!! good to hear!!!!
In other news ..
BOL droppin some G5 win totals .. woop woop!!!!
just a heads up the old site wasn't lettin me sign in but no prob on the new site .. unsure if anyone else will have that prob but new site just not as good looking IMO ..
***Caesars got their G5 RSW's up*** .. highly suggest adding them if they're in your state they make their own numbers and at least when they first drop they'll have a few decent differences from those at other shops are offering and not all have odds adjustments to justify the difference .. Hit quite a few win totals last year on them I was real happy with ..
Fan Duel dropped MAC, AAC and MW the other day too and had a few that were a little diff from BOL or DK too on first arrival .. had N.Texas at 7.5 w normal enough odds and I already thought the 6.5 at other shops was a little high .. you look at their schedule and its a HUGE difference landing 7 vs landing 8 to cover the total .. . They also put out G5 conf champ odds for those conferences .. not sure why they're slow to come out with stuff for the SUN, totally get CUSA being a little slow this year .. usually MAC is last to come out if any are delayed but they look like a totally stable element compared to CUSA this year lol....
Good luck!
Fan Duel dropped MAC, AAC and MW the other day too and had a few that were a little diff from BOL or DK too on first arrival .. had N.Texas at 7.5 w normal enough odds and I already thought the 6.5 at other shops was a little high .. you look at their schedule and its a HUGE difference landing 7 vs landing 8 to cover the total .. . They also put out G5 conf champ odds for those conferences .. not sure why they're slow to come out with stuff for the SUN, totally get CUSA being a little slow this year .. usually MAC is last to come out if any are delayed but they look like a totally stable element compared to CUSA this year lol....
Good luck!
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