RSMS NCAAF Futures 2007

[RSMS9999]

I'm ready to start my second season betting college football right now in the middle of july with some futures. Had a lot of success last year with CFB futures but the team totals out right now look very tough. Hopefully there will be some better numbers when the rest come out.

Florida State Seminoles To Win ACC Atlantic Division 1/1 (3 Units)
This line looks very generous to me right now. I know that the Noles struggled last year but a lot of preseason signs were pointing to a collapse. Were they really as bad as they ended up? IMO no. The preseasons signs are pointing toward a resurgence for the Noles to be an elite team once again. This team should field the best D in the conference and one of the best offenses as well. I think Weatherford figures it out this season at QB. QB play is so weak in this conference he could end up being the ACC top dog. Hard to see problems running the ball with Antoine Smith and the Carr/I love sex receiving combination is one of the nations best and easily the best in the conference. They shouldn't have problems scoring points or shutting down the opponent. Schedule wise they have Va Tech, BC and Clemson on the road and Miami at home which should all be tough but winnable games. Its not a favorable schedule but it is manageable. Clemson is their top competitor for the division but this is one of my perennial teams to fade and I doubt they can beat the Noles in the opener or take advantage of their gift schedule. Maryland will be mediocre again as will . Wake Forest will not live up to last season and BC is overrated. I will gladly take FSU against the field for even money. I think they have better that 60% chance to win this division and if they beat Clemson (which I think they will), that number jumps to around 80. Great value here, I think it will be at least 1/2 pretty soon.

 

[B.A.R.]

Love this team this year...the game at VT is their biggest obstacle for the division.

I will hammer them week one @ Clemson

 

[frankiegotti]

i like them week 1 but it all depends on the line i get, b/c they will be a public team.

 

[RSMS9999]

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Louisville Cardinals To Win Over 10 Games -120 (3 Units)
I bet this team last year preseason to win the Big East and to win over 10 games and cashed both. I do not see why they can't do it again. They are the class of the Big East, IMO have the best offense and #2 defense in the conference.
Schedule Wise
Team &chance of winning
Murray State 100%
Middle Tenn 100%
@ Kentucky 70%
Syracuse 95%
@ NC State 85%
Utah 85%
@ Cincinnati 85%
Pittsburgh 85%@ West Virginia 45%
@ USF 40%
Rutgers 75%
Basically I give them a terrific chance to start 8-0. Maybe a slip up with Kentucky being the most dangerous but I think they take care of business. I seriously doubt Rutgers this season. I think that the only games where they wont be favored (as well as heavily favored) are @ USF and @West Virginia. I think they take one.

 

[RSMS9999]

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[RSMS9999]

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South Carolina Over 7 Wins -125 (2 Units)
This one has been pretty much talked to death on this forum and I think the reasons for this play are pretty clear. OOC they have 3 cupcakes and Clemson, who will have most likely collapsed by the end of the season anyway. 4-4 in conference is very managable. Vandy, Kentucky, MSU are Florida at home are all very winnable and I see 3 or 4 wins to occur here. THe road games are all difficult but they can sneak one out. I like this team to get to 8 or 9 but could also easily see a push. A step back from last year to 6-6 or worse would shock me.

Auburn Under 9 Wins -180 (3 Units)
Pretty juicy, but worth it. This team has a very difficult schedule, an offense should struggle and a defense that will proably be not among the elite of the SEC. The fact that there number is at 9 probably speaks to credit for past success. 8 would have been more appropriate. KSU and South Florida at home to open the season before the offense (returning 5 starters) could be troublesome as rhythm will not be established. In the SEC slate road games at Florida, Arkansas, LSU and Georgia will either yield 3 or 4 losses. Those four games either win or push this bet alone. In addition to the first two games I think they lose to Alabama this year. This will be Vandy's best shot at a road win this season and we did beat Georgia last year away from home, so winning this will not be a stretch for an improved team. Especially if the Dores are confident after a 4-0 start, unlikely, but possible. This is a terrible number

 

[lindetrain]

LOVE your final two plays, my favorites of them all so far...GL on these.

 

[RSMS9999]

in my (brief) experience, waiting on these futures is the wrong move. Soon, the best numbers could be gone so I am wasting no time on these. However, for this one, it should be one of my bigger plays, but i think the line has a chance to move in a beneficial direction

Notre Dame Under 7.5 Wins -105 (1.5 Units)
Notre Dame's so called "resurgence" under Charlie Weis is as much a myth as the tooth fairy and Santa. To actually think that this team was worthy of a BCS bid last year is absolute lunacy, the year before even worse. This program is a cancer to college football. Making money on their overratedness is such a great tool for betting college football. There last 5 bowl games for example have seen them as only at biggest been an 8 point dog, yet they are 0-5 and 14 points is the lowest margin of victory. However, people just buy into it every year. This season offers a tougher schedule than recently even though towards the end it is cupcake city. I think they beat Georgia Tech but I can't see them beating Michigan or Penn State on the road. Purdue on the road will also be very tough. Vs. the Pac-10 I think USC and UCLA dominate them as well, and Stanford at the end of the year could be tricky. BC at home should be a win but not a sure win. They are throwing a freshman QB into the fire for all their toughest games early. I think they get to 7, but avoiding 5 losses will be very difficult.

 

[Dmoney416]

Like the ND, Auburn, and SC plays as specified in the regular season win thread. GL with these.

Also, where did you get Auburn at -180?

 

[RSMS9999]

bodog, it shouldn't be there long

 

[RSMS9999]

well I fucked u with Notre Dame. Should have jumped all over 7.5. I have to learn when a ND line looks wrong, to jump on it.

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South Florida Over 8 Wins EVEN (3 Units)
This is a team I really like for this season and which I put squarly ahead of Rutgers in BE power rankings. They should have a very nice offense that returns a lot of starters. They have a great line, a nice young QB in Matt Grothe and should be fine at RB and WR. You have to love their defense as well which IMO is tops in the conference. Mix in the fact that this program has tremendous momentum schedule, it all points toward a great season. Schedule Wise they open with Elon which is an auto win. Winning at Auburn will e very difficult but I think they have a decent shot in that one. Especialy if Auburn overlooks them. Florida Atlantic, UNC and UCF should all be wins. Overall, about an 75% chance at 4-1, 15% at 5-0 and 10% worse. That leaves 4 Big East wins to push and 5 to win the wager. On the road in conference play they have Rutgers, Connecticut, Syracuse and Pittsburgh, all games in which I think that USF is the better team. They have a great shot at winning 3 of these and maybe even 4. Home wise Louisville and West Virginia will be difficult but I can defiantly see them winning at least one. HC vs. Cincy looks like a win. I would be very surprised at 7 wins or less.

Penn State Over 9 Wins -125 (3 Units)
You have to love the schedule for this team. Talent wise I am not overly hot on them, but I think a large range of what we will see on the field will win at least 9 games with this slate. OOC, FIU, Notre Dame, Buffalo and @Temple looks like 4-0. I am not a believer in Notre Dame and an early season trip to Happy Valley likely spells doom. Conference wise their problem last year was not beating any good teams but I think that has more to do with road struggles than anything else. This year they have a nice road slate with Michigan, Illinois, Inidana and Michigan State. Michigan looks like a sure loss but they should be favored well in the other three. They get most of their tough games at home where they are hard to beat. Maybe they lose one at home but I dont see too many teams winning there. I will take my chances that they improve on last years record and win 10-11 games.

Missouri to win Big 12 North +200 (3 Units)
I see this as a two horse race between them and Nebraska. With Nebraska visiting Mizzou, the value is here.

South Carolina to win SEC East +500 (10 Units)
I think they are better than 5/1 to win this division. Something is brewing in Columbia this year.

 

[RSMS9999]

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South Carolina to win SEC +4000 (125 Units)
This has to have some value in it. I just bet 5/1 to win the division so how could I not take 40/1 to win the conference. You have to give this team a better shot than that, and if they win the division hedging the title game would be very profitable. Great value here.

 

[B.A.R.]

I agree its gonna be a special year perhaps for the Cocks..

 

[RSMS9999]

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Michigan Wolverines To LOSE 2 GAMES this season 20/1 (50 Units)
I think that Michigan is very underrated right now. It is very hard to take the contrarian approach right now but I think it has a chance to pay off. THe Big 10 is very weak this year and I still believe that Michigan is the best team. This week vs. Notre Dame is a perfect spot for them to gain confidence and taste victory again (they have probably forgotten the feeling). In conference, they have all winnable games. Penn State struggles away from home and the rest of their schedule up until Wisconsin is very very weak. Illinois might be a trouble spot but they should be rolling by then. No Big 10 team has looked dominant, PSU, Wiscy and TOSU have all shown problems. They will not face an offense nearly as powerful as Oregon again. I think they have a great chance to run the table at least until Wisconsin, when I should be able to get some terrific hedging possibilities. If they lose again, its just a couple units.

 

[RSMS9999]

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Oregon Ducks To Win the Pac-10 Title 9/1 (20 Units)
At this point in the season, its hard to think that the Ducks have less than a 10% chance of winning the conference this year. They have by far the most favorable schedule of the conference's "contenders". With the best offense in the country, it is hard to pass on this one. They should beat Cal this week, and set up the USC game as a de facto Pac-10 Championship. I think they have a shot.